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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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For whatever reason, Ontario has historically voted for the opposite party in federal election to whichever party is in power provincially. Many theories have been put forth to explain this, but just been one of those things that seem happen.

So tell me now, fellow Ontarians, in hindsight would you rather have a Tom Hudak Ontario government or a Stephen Harper Canadian government?

Provincial government has waaaaay more effect on your daily life than federal does. Even living in Ottawa with the batshit stupid NCC and ridiculous anti-commie monuments, I'd way rather have lefty Wynne to "let's fire 100,000 public employees and cancel all transit plans" Hudak.
 

NetMapel

Guilty White Male Mods Gave Me This Tag
You know what I wish was a platform for any of the parties - Cleaning up our telecom industry? I want some decent offerings.

Yes please. We need better internet and cellphone providers in this country. I'm looking to buy an apartment here and I am starting to look at buildings/areas that have Novus as a provider. Can't believe ISP is part of my house hunting criteria but it's because our ISPs are terrible. Novus has good service compared to the rest of the ISPs we got here.
 

gabbo

Member
You know what I wish was a platform for any of the parties - Cleaning up our telecom industry? I want some decent offerings.

Well for a hot minute, Harper and... who was it.. Moore were all about that, but it's fallen by the way side since, and was mostly lip service to the actual problems facing the industry/Canadians to begin with. I could see the Greens coming out with some kind of public plan to implement better connections/plans, and cleaning things up. but that's it.
 

Spl1nter

Member
What is the NDPs messaging right now, I honestly dont know. Keywords and buzzwords are critical to reaching the masses and I feel I haven't got that from them. The Cons are preaching safety, security, stabilty; the Liberals are talking middle class and better; but what is the NDP saying. I think the better tagline can actually work out to be a very powerful message for swinging voters. Ten years is a long time for a PM and it can incite the idea that change is needed.

Another question, why is rural Ontario so heavily conservative? Is it just the traditional WASP support for the Cons or is there something else more recent that drove that part of the province blue (Mulroney?).
 

Silexx

Member
Another question, why is rural Ontario so heavily conservative? Is it just the traditional WASP support for the Cons or is there something else more recent that drove that part of the province blue (Mulroney?).

The Conservatives have traditionally supported more protectionist policies as well as the continuation of farm subsidies. That said, Harper has been playing bit of a dance here because while he would like to play into populist policies of bringing down prices for consumers, he knows he can't do it at the expense of farmers. This is why he's been dragging his feet on the TPP as it would basically open up Canada to the international market in dairy and meat products. Harper does not want to risk pissing off those farmers before the election.
 

gabbo

Member
The Conservatives have traditionally supported more protectionist policies as well as the continuation of farm subsidies. That said, Harper has been playing bit of a dance here because while he would like to play into populist policies of bringing down prices for consumers, he knows he can't do it at the expense of farmers. This is why he's been dragging his feet on the TPP as it would basically open up Canada to the international market in dairy and meat products. Harper does not want to risk pissing off those farmers before the election.

If it passes before the election, he's going to have a world of hurt on his hand
 
Another question, why is rural Ontario so heavily conservative? Is it just the traditional WASP support for the Cons or is there something else more recent that drove that part of the province blue (Mulroney?).

Are you asking if Mulroney turned rural Ontario blue? If so...no. Like most other rural communities, it's been skewed conservative for a several decades now. If anything, I'd think Mulroney hurt the Conservatives in rural Ontario (and Canada at large), since they abandoned him to form the Reform Party.

The Conservatives have traditionally supported more protectionist policies as well as the continuation of farm subsidies. That said, Harper has been playing bit of a dance here because while he would like to play into populist policies of bringing down prices for consumers, he knows he can't do it at the expense of farmers. This is why he's been dragging his feet on the TPP as it would basically open up Canada to the international market in dairy and meat products. Harper does not want to risk pissing off those farmers before the election.

I don't think any party wants to touch supply management and the TPP. Harper has been waffling as hard as he can, not wanting to alienate the free traders in his party, but also wanting to try and keep some of his rural farmer votes. Mulcair has been somewhat vocal about it in French -- since he also wants to win those Quebec dairy farm votes -- but extremely muted in English. Even the Liberals, who have always been staunch free traders (outside of the 1988 election), won't touch supply management; the closest they came to that was one of their leadership candidates, Martha Hall Findlay, advocating for it, and she got trounced so badly that I can't imagine anyone bringing it up again. I'd say the odds of TPP passing with Canada included during an election are practically nil.
 

Azih

Member
I live on the edge of farmland Ontario and I occasionally see signs like "FARMERS FEED CITIES" and "HANDS OFF GOVERNMENT".

The Conservatives are the party of anti-urban sentiment which is a fairly potent force in Canada. Not only in farming or rural communities but also in suburbia.
 

lamaroo

Unconfirmed Member
They're also the poster child for lower taxes, whether completely true or not. I know a lot of people never look past taxes when deciding on a political party.
 

Tabris

Member
Yes please. We need better internet and cellphone providers in this country. I'm looking to buy an apartment here and I am starting to look at buildings/areas that have Novus as a provider. Can't believe ISP is part of my house hunting criteria but it's because our ISPs are terrible. Novus has good service compared to the rest of the ISPs we got here.

I loved Novus. Some of the buildings also lease business level ISP services from providers like TeraGo, which is what my building does. This is even better then Novus, so don't limit yourself just to Novus, just ensure it's not Shaw, Telus, and/or Bell.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
The expectations were always that any of the juicy stuff, if any, would come out during cross-examination.

I wish I could watch it live, should be quite entertaining for everyone that's present :D

Would be great to see a real smoking gun against Harper. I read through all the emails and they protected him well in them, to the point where they didn't even say his name and referred to him as just "PM".
 
If they can somehow stretch the trial out for a few more weeks, they could subpoena Harper. Apparently his parliamentary privilege only lasts until 40 days after Parliament dissolves. His only recourse against it would be to argue that the CPC was guaranteed to win the election and that, consequently, the next session of parliament would resume less than three days after the election (because privilege also extends to 40 days before a session begins).

So basically, it'll be a question of how badly Duffy wants to take Harper down with him.
 

Ondore

Member
I take hope for the election in the fact that the Jays are in first place this late for the first time since the last time the party in blue got absolutely wrecked.
 

Azih

Member
I've been seeing this getting some play in the media now, but it was so blatantly made to go viral that I can't help but feel ambivalent to this.

Independants have an almost impossible task of even getting noticed so I ain't mad at that. His story about trying to get someone nominated as the Liberal candidate also kinda resonates with me as I know some people who tried to get someone idealistic in as a Liberal candidate for a Milton riding but a much more sleasy establishment type candidate got the nomination instead.

Plus I like his policies. University is too damn expensive.
 
Too Close to Call finally updated their site:

12%2Baugust%2B2015.png




http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

Liberals bounce back

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9hKZEGlI3lXYVk5cVFjSEtlLVU/view
riding projection update from TCTC

Gilles Duceppe's June bump has vanished, even in his own riding he has gone down in % compared to last two projects. Bye bye Gilles
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Interesting article about the NDP strategy. They believe they can cobble together a victory without the 905 suburbs around Toronto.

NDP rejects well-worn path to victory through Toronto-area battleground

During every campaign for the past couple of decades, the “905 belt” that surrounds Toronto has been billed as the country’s most important battleground – a magical land so bursting with swing seats that conquering it is a party’s biggest imperative.

Now, Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats are trying to prove it’s possible to win power while barely even competing there.

It’s a dynamic seemingly at odds with long-term electoral success, especially since immigration-fuelled population growth has caused five additional federal seats to be added to the suburban sprawl, giving it about 30 in total. And it might also help explain why, despite the NDP’s current strength in the polls, the governing Conservatives still focus much of their attention on the third-place Liberals, since Justin Trudeau’s party appears to pose more of a threat in the region.

In recent conversations, New Democrats nevertheless outlined a path to victory that draws almost entirely from elsewhere.

By the estimate of one of Mr. Mulcair’s campaign officials, to have a good chance of forming government, the NDP likely needs to net about 40 new seats. By this account, that would likely mean more or less holding what it has in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while piecing together major gains in British Columbia and other parts of Ontario, along with smaller ones in urban Alberta and Saskatchewan.


Another senior member of Mr. Mulcair’s campaign team said the party believes it has a good shot in at least 40 ridings in Ontario, where it now holds 19 seats. The NDP is particularly optimistic about the province’s economically hard-hit southwest, where the vast majority of federal seats are currently Conservative-held, but the provincial New Democrats have recently had electoral success. It also believes a few in downtown Toronto and several more in Northern Ontario are within its reach. (A new Nanos poll suggests that the NDP is running substantially behind the Tories provincewide, although it is difficult to know how that breaks down regionally.)

As for the 905, those and other NDP sources suggested their party will target Brampton and Oshawa, where their provincial cousins hold their lone pair of seats (and which respectively have potentially supportive Indo-Canadian communities and strong organized-labour roots). But they conceded their hopes are faint through most of the rest of the belt – places such as Whitby, Ajax, Markham, Richmond Hill, Vaughan and Oakville. By all appearances, the NDP would be very happy to win a couple of the 905’s seats, and thrilled with any more than that.

The available information suggests this is not just a matter of managing expectations. Unlike in places where it has higher hopes, the NDP has recruited few candidates with local profile, and in many of the region’s ridings its ground organization is minimal at best. The provincial NDP was a complete non-entity in all but a couple of pockets there in last year’s Ontario election, and even when the Liberal vote collapsed in the 2011 federal election, the NDP finished third in the vast majority of the 905’s ridings.

It is not unprecedented for parties to win national elections without doing particularly well in Toronto-area suburbia, even after the population boom of recent decades. Stephen Harper’s Conservatives only had four or five seats there (depending whether one counts Burlington, which is nestled between Oakville and Hamilton) when they first formed minority government in 2006. But they had already loosened the grip the Liberals had on the region through the Jean Chrétien/Paul Martin era.

Continuing to pry it away was seen as essential to strengthening the Conservatives’ grip on power, which is largely why Jason Kenney’s work with immigrant communities would come to define his party’s outreach efforts. The Tories more than doubled their 905 seat count in 2008, and then those efforts really paid off in 2011, when they powered their way to majority government by winning all but one seat there.

After all that, Mr. Harper’s party clearly sees keeping the 905 as one of its most important fights this election, if not the most important. And that fight appears to be much more with the Liberals than the New Democrats. If you’re wondering why the Tories have been slow to go hard on the attack against Mr. Mulcair, it helps to consider that over the past couple of years they’ve quietly been cheering for the NDP’s suburban numbers to go up, to pull votes away from the Liberals.

Based on the way recent elections have gone, it’s possible the New Democrats will catch a wave of support that causes them to win ridings they’re barely thinking about at the moment. If not, perhaps the Tories have underestimated the ability of Mr. Mulcair’s party to steal seats from them elsewhere.

Maybe, by the time the votes have been counted, the legend of the 905 will be diminished a little. For now, it remains strong enough that it can be tough to imagine a party winning without it.

Essentially Conservatives need to win the 905, but the NDP may not have to due to their strength in Quebec and BC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. If the Liberals do very well in the 905 the Conservatives will be sunk.
 

mo60

Member
Interesting article about the NDP strategy. They believe they can cobble together a victory without the 905 suburbs around Toronto.



Essentially Conservatives need to win the 905, but the NDP may not have to due to their strength in Quebec and BC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. If the Liberals do very well in the 905 the Conservatives will be sunk.

The NDP are at least going to get 40 seats and maybe even 50 seats from Quebec this time. If they get 20+ seats in BC all they need is about 30-50 seats everywere else to form government. I really do hope the liberals manage to steal some seats from the Conservatives especially in the 905 area to prevent them from forming government.
 

Sch1sm

Member
If they can somehow stretch the trial out for a few more weeks, they could subpoena Harper. Apparently his parliamentary privilege only lasts until 40 days after Parliament dissolves. His only recourse against it would be to argue that the CPC was guaranteed to win the election and that, consequently, the next session of parliament would resume less than three days after the election (because privilege also extends to 40 days before a session begins).

So basically, it'll be a question of how badly Duffy wants to take Harper down with him.

Duffy seems pretty keen on bringing Harper down with him with every statement claiming that Harper knew about the cheque. It's such a case of he said,
s
he said with the two, but the only way Duffy can be alleviated of most blame is if Harper falls, so I bet he'll keep pushing on it.

Too Close to Call finally updated their site:

12%2Baugust%2B2015.png




http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

Liberals bounce back

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9hKZEGlI3lXYVk5cVFjSEtlLVU/view
riding projection update from TCTC

Gilles Duceppe's June bump has vanished, even in his own riding he has gone down in % compared to last two projects. Bye bye Gilles

This is disturbingly close for comfort.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Interesting article about the NDP strategy. They believe they can cobble together a victory without the 905 suburbs around Toronto.



Essentially Conservatives need to win the 905, but the NDP may not have to due to their strength in Quebec and BC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. If the Liberals do very well in the 905 the Conservatives will be sunk.

This seems pretty on the nose to me. It strikes me as pretty good strategy, really. Rather than fight both the Liberals and the Conservatives on the turf they insist on duking it out on, the NDP tries to build up a coalition with the places neither are paying as much attention to. If they execute well on it, it even means Liberal gains where they're most likely help the NDP.

But it's still a pretty big gamble.
 

mo60

Member
Duffy seems pretty keen on bringing Harper down with him with every statement claiming that Harper knew about the cheque. It's such a case of he said,
s
he said with the two, but the only way Duffy can be alleviated of most blame is if Harper falls, so I bet he'll keep pushing on it.



This is disturbingly close for comfort.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop in the conservatives poll numbers depending on what happens during this phase of the trial in the next few weeks.
 

Maximus.

Member
This seems pretty on the nose to me. It strikes me as pretty good strategy, really. Rather than fight both the Liberals and the Conservatives on the turf they insist on duking it out on, the NDP tries to build up a coalition with the places neither are paying as much attention to. If they execute well on it, it even means Liberal gains where they're most likely help the NDP.

But it's still a pretty big gamble.

Really hope this happens. Conservatives need to go down and let the NDP and Liberals take charge of the country. Really hoping that as we get closer to the election, Conservative support will drop.
 

Boogie

Member
I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop in the conservatives poll numbers depending on what happens during this phase of the trial in the next few weeks.

Aww, that's cute, some of you guys actually think people are still paying attention to this Duffy shit at this point. ;P
 
New Forum Poll (Pre-Duffy)

Regarding federal party preference, the Forum poll shows the NDP still leading in public support, at 34 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives at 28 per cent and the Liberals at 27 per cent.

The Green Party drew four per cent support, the Bloc six per cent. (The remaining one per cent of respondents answered “anyone else.”)

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news...lled-as-harper-on-the-economy-poll-shows.html

This seems pretty on the nose to me. It strikes me as pretty good strategy, really. Rather than fight both the Liberals and the Conservatives on the turf they insist on duking it out on, the NDP tries to build up a coalition with the places neither are paying as much attention to. If they execute well on it, it even means Liberal gains where they're most likely help the NDP.

But it's still a pretty big gamble.

It's not that big of a gamble when you consider those seats are already lost and they are still polling higher than the Conservatives.

I was looking at the ridings yesterday and there's only about 10 seats up for grabs where the Liberals could lose them to the Cons. That is to say the Liberal lead in those ridings is no more than 20%.

Conversely, there are 10 or so ridings with the same close lead for the Cons that could swing Liberal.

So I think people worry a bit too much about Ontario and 'splitting the vote'.

There is no need to be strategic about it, just vote for who you like most.
 

Azih

Member
I can confirm that the Conservatives are going hard in the 905. I already see signs up for the local asshole Brad Butt all over the place in Mississauga Streetsville :(. It makes sense for the NDP to focus on Brampton though and see how far Jagmeet Singh, the provincial NDP Deputy leader, can take them there and just write off Mississauga.
 
Actual Forum poll numbers:

NDP 34 (-5)
CPC 28 (-)
LPC 27 (+2)

The Greens also went up a point, to 4%.

Interesting article about the NDP strategy. They believe they can cobble together a victory without the 905 suburbs around Toronto.

Essentially Conservatives need to win the 905, but the NDP may not have to due to their strength in Quebec and BC. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. If the Liberals do very well in the 905 the Conservatives will be sunk.

That seems pretty risky on the part of the NDP. It's doable, I guess, but it relies on them running the table in ridings they have to win. That's not too far from the CPC strategy (of winning by appealing exclusively to your base), but the Conservatives have pretty exceptional organization to back that up. Is there any indication the NDP does? At this point, they seem to be relying on a national version of Quebec 2011/Alberta from earlier this year, where they won despite not having any ground game at all.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Actual Forum poll numbers:

NDP 34 (-5)
CPC 28 (-)
LPC 27 (+2)

The Greens also went up a point, to 4%.



That seems pretty risky on the part of the NDP. It's doable, I guess, but it relies on them running the table in ridings they have to win. That's not too far from the CPC strategy (of winning by appealing exclusively to your base), but the Conservatives have pretty exceptional organization to back that up. Is there any indication the NDP does? At this point, they seem to be relying on a national version of Quebec 2011/Alberta from earlier this year, where they won despite not having any ground game at all.

Having been direct witness to it, I don't think it's at all true that the NDP had no ground game in Alberta. They were actually very aggressively present in the urban areas, often more so than even the conservatives, who also outspent then by a large factor. They had green candidates, but there was a solid machine behind them. If luck was all that was needed to bring down the PCs in Alberta, it'd have happened long ago.

I think that's also probably true in 2011 in Quebec, but I want there.
 

gabbo

Member
I am not and I think most Canadians aren't either

They may not be, but if the Liberals and NDP start adding it to their election conversations on a regular basis if anything new comes out (ie in cross today), people might pick up at the very least for the spectacle of it all.
 
There's a chance Duffy has some impact, depending on how Wright's cross-examination testimony goes. If anything juicy comes from that, I could see that generating some bad press for Harper. It's doubtful, but you never know.

Having been direct witness to it, I don't think it's at all true that the NDP had no ground game in Alberta. They were actually very aggressively present in the urban areas, often more so than even the conservatives, who also outspent then by a large factor. They had green candidates, but there was a solid machine behind them. If luck was all that was needed to bring down the PCs in Alberta, it'd have happened long ago.

I think that's also probably true in 2011 in Quebec, but I want there.

I'm not going to question your Alberta experience -- I'm just looking at it from the outside, where a lot of the national coverage was centred around how the the NDP win was despite, not because of, their organization there.

Quebec, though:

In the annals of electoral curiosities, there will always be a chapter reserved for the NDP’s Quebec class of 2011: dozens of individuals suddenly elected despite small-to-non-existent campaigns and beyond all reasonable expectations for a party with only the slightest history in the province. That group of 59—famously including an assistant pub manager who spent part of the campaign in Las Vegas, university students and other novices—has always had a certain feel of an experiment.

...

Three years ago, most of Quebec’s ridings did not even have NDP riding associations, fewer than five nominations in the province were contested, and most of those who were elected managed to do so without running full campaigns—Brosseau, Dubé, Borg, Freeman and Liu were each elected without spending even a nickel, according to Elections Canada reports.

And it's not like they're in significantly better shape now, either:

As of this week, Elections Canada had posted the most recent returns for the associations of 50 out of 54 Quebec NDP incumbents. Among them, just seven reported net assets of more than $30,000 at the end of 2014. Only Mr. Mulcair ($62,070.37), his Quebec lieutenant, Alexandre Boulerice ($89,594.12) and maybe former interim leader Nycole Turmel ($50,613.38) appear positioned to spend near the limit.

More than half the incumbents – 27 in total – had less than $20,000. Sixteen of those had less than $15,000, including five (mostly where underperforming MPs have been replaced with new candidates) with less than $10,000.
 

Boogie

Member
They may not be, but if the Liberals and NDP start adding it to their election conversations on a regular basis if anything new comes out (ie in cross today), people might pick up at the very least for the spectacle of it all.

"Spectacle"? Are we talking about the same trial here?
 

Tiktaalik

Member
That seems pretty risky on the part of the NDP. It's doable, I guess, but it relies on them running the table in ridings they have to win. That's not too far from the CPC strategy (of winning by appealing exclusively to your base), but the Conservatives have pretty exceptional organization to back that up. Is there any indication the NDP does? At this point, they seem to be relying on a national version of Quebec 2011/Alberta from earlier this year, where they won despite not having any ground game at all.

The NDP know what ridings they need to win and they're going to try hard to win those ridings. I don't understand how this converts into you thinking they're relying on another lucky Quebec wave.

Going by this article it's likely that the NDP has serious and capable candidates in BC and Sask battleground ridings (the ones they need to win) and pylons in Liberal/Conservative strongholds in 905 Ontario and Alberta.

It would be interesting to go back and have a look to see what pundits thought the 2011 NDP election strategy was under Layton. I assume it was to do a bit better on the Island of Montreal but not quite much beyond that.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Good article following up on one of those Orange wave candidates: Laurin Liu. I've only posted part due to length but it's worth following the link and reading the whole thing.

She seems like she's been a good MP for her riding. I hope she stays in and can beat off the Bloc challenger.

Rookie MP at 20, Laurin Liu now fights to hold NDP ground in Quebec

When Laurin Liu was elected to Parliament at the age of 20, she didn’t know how to drive.

Soon she became known here, in the Montreal suburb at the heart of her constituency, for riding a bicycle to appointments around town. Locals called her “the bike MP.”

“It was great,” she said recently, putting a characteristically cheerful spin on the situation. “People would see me and wave from their cars.”

At that stage of her political career, gaining a reputation was worth whatever embarrassment it might entail. One of the four McGill undergraduates swept into the House of Commons more or less accidentally by Quebec’s Orange Wave in 2011, she was all but unknown in Saint-Eustache.

A so-called pylon candidate, Ms. Liu put her name on the ballot as a formality; she was not expected to be remotely competitive against a Bloc Québécois juggernaut that had dominated Montreal’s north shore for more than a decade. On polling day, while she was volunteering for Thomas Mulcair’s re-election campaign, a friend texted her the results from Rivière-des-Mille-Îles.

Ms. Liu had won the seat by nearly 11,000 votes.

She now drives a used Toyota Corolla, a little anxiously, and with the not-always-sufficient navigational help of a GPS. But if the car protests a little when accelerating onto the highway, and if it has hand cranks to roll down the windows, it still counts as evidence of her remarkable maturation.

The youngest woman ever elected to Parliament is now a crucial part of the NDP’s strategy to hold Quebec. While the party needs to dramatically expand its footprint in Ontario and British Columbia if it has any hope of dispatching the Harper Conservatives, keeping the support of la belle province is an equally tough trick.

The NDP’s support here, while broader than that of the other parties combined, is also unusually shallow. Of the party’s 54 Quebec MPs, 53 are rookies. Their job in October will be to prove that 2011 wasn’t, as many have charged, a feu de paille – a flash in the pan.

Saint-Eustache is impeccably Québécois. The town hall used to be a convent. The church has dimples in its walls from British cannonballs fired during the 1837 rebellion. Fleurs-de-lys pennants hang from the lampposts downtown. A typical Eustachois is, roughly: 65, white, Catholic, francophone and separatist.

A Chinese-Canadian anglophone born in Calgary, Ms. Liu cuts a striking figure in town. Her noticeable anglo accent adds to that air of incongruity. Although she went to a French community college in Montreal, and is now much more comfortable in her second language than she was four years ago, she gives herself away as an outsider the moment she says bonjour.

Ms. Liu’s reception, generally warm, has sometimes been marred by ugly remarks about age and race. At a community event one night early in her tenure, a former Bloc MP for the riding, Gilles Perron, repeatedly referred to Ms. Liu as la petite Chinoise. (She insists the incident was “in no way representative of my general experience.” Mr. Perron could not be reached for comment.)

But despite all the superficial differences between them, many of her constituents seem to have embraced their young MP. She was greeted enthusiastically in the streets of Saint-Eustache on the first day of electioneering last Sunday – “Bonne chance,” exclaimed one woman, holding up two firmly crossed fingers – and has the foursquare support of local groups such as the Lions Club.

She has earned this improbable foothold by heeding Jack Layton’s advice to the crop of novice parliamentarians he almost single-handedly created: Spend lots of time in your riding.

...
 
New poll from Forum shows:

NDP - 34%
CPC - 28%
LPC - 27%

This is more in line with their previous results, and shows the short-period poll they did on the Sunday afternoon when the election started was an outlier.
 

maharg

idspispopd
I'm not going to question your Alberta experience -- I'm just looking at it from the outside, where a lot of the national coverage was centred around how the the NDP win was despite, not because of, their organization there.

Quebec, though:



And it's not like they're in significantly better shape now, either:

That same national coverage spent tens of thousands of words, mere days before, talking about how the PCs could win nothing short of a minority and would probably still sweep to a majority no matter what the polls said. I don't put a lot of stock into their coverage of Alberta politics.

And my point was that *in spite* of a lack of money and green candidates, there was a solid machine and strategy backing them. So I'm not really sure why RA funds are a contradiction. Again, I won't speak too much to Quebec, but when the NDP pull off two upset victories in five years that were thought before the writs to be impossible, there might just be more than luck behind it.
 
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