gutter_trash
Banned
watch the NPD be that stupid in a minority government
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
- Status
watch the NPD be that stupid in a minority government
dragonfart28
Banned
CitizenVectron
Member
What evidence do you have of that? Similar to the Liberals trying to form a coalition backed by separatists? All parties have dumb people in them, but there is no evidence that the clarity act is even in the top 10 of things the NDP want to address on taking power. It's like Trudeau taking power and then calling a constitutional convention to get Meech Lake passed or something. It's not going to happen. Parties are primarily concerned with self-preservation.
And you still refuse to outline a path to victory for Trudeau.
eBay Huckster
Member
weirdly enough, he also did this when I and a couple other posters called him out about proportional representation a few pages back
I think it was a great thread.
It put a spotlight on the racism in Quebec. Plus there was Stumpokapow being the voice of reason, politely pointing out the faults of BOTH sides - the best part IMO was when he pointed out that gaboumafou's stubborn persistence in deflecting the attention away whenever someone brought up their experiences with racism in Quebec only helps feed into the perception of Quebec being more racist and intolerant than most other parts of Canada.
Morrigan Stark: Don't be afraid.
Here's the link:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1094859
In other words: Quebec is more racist and/or less tolerant.
To hell with sugar coating it.
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Yeah, I found it by myself... and spent way too much time reading way too much garbage.
S-Wind
Creepy Francophobe
(Today, 07:47 PM)
Well I mean Trudeau already showed some stupidity voting for C-51, impossible to beat that
I am still undecided on NDP vs Liberals
dragonfart28
Banned
The NDP is the most 'center' it's ever been.
They are encroaching on the big tent status that the Liberals had.
They are encroaching on the big tent status that the Liberals had.
Cool story.
And this is why it would never happen like that. You think the Liberals are going to come out of this election any better prepared for another election than the NDP? The CPC's war chest will be terrifying to both parties coming out of the election whether they win power or not.
That might be a bit much, but they certainly aren't the NDP of old
You Are Viewtiful
Member
My engineer friends are paying more than $10,000 this year. It's at that psychological "punch in the gut" price point. Mine is ~$7,500 in Physics, but I'm thinking of double majoring with Computer Science. Might have to give up a kidney lol
Naw, it's not too bad, but still... it -is- starting to get unaffordable.
I just realized, this is the first election in which all Millennials have finally reached voting age. The kids born in 1997 are turning 18 this year. Will be interesting to see how we influence the results if at all.
edit: the national inquiry on missing and murdered indigenous women is so necessary. It's not even Native-on-Native crime as the media would have you believe. There are haunting stories of women being captured and being sold into sex slavery.
Holy shit! The Green Party is incredible. I hope the NDP wins and fixes the electoral system. Once they do that, I'm going green. 8)
I don't think they will ever even think of trying to repeal that act.
dragonfart28
Banned
Majority (63%) of Voters Support NDP-Liberal Cooperation to Form Government if Election Results in Minority
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6947
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6947
matthewwhatever
Member
So suddenly Mainstreet Polling are showing a much tighter race than they were when they were forecasting a Conservative win last week (note: you have to look at the actual numbers in the poll, rather than what they say in the press release, because the numbers they've put out aren't in line with their commentary):
CPC 31 (-7)
LPC 29 (+4)
NDP 29 (+2)
GPC 6
That's among decided voters. When you include undecideds, it's CPC 26/NDP 26/LPC 24/Undecided 18, and when you look at leaning & decided, it's CPC 31/NDP 30/LPC 29. They found that Trudeau's debate performance helped him a lot, especially in Toronto (which Forum also found), and that the Liberals are looking like they might sweep Atlantic Canada (though it still has a huge number of undecideds). The NDP are still very strong in BC, but their lead in Quebec has basically vanished (though I suspect that they may have a more efficient vote there, and are probably going to spread their vote around enough to still keep a plurality of seats). The Conservatives still have the Prairies, though the Liberals are surging in Manitoba (where the NDP is doing surprisingly poorly), and Ontario is narrowly CPC.
The Conservatives lead among "Certain" voters, the Liberals are ahead in both the "Likely" and "Might Vote" categories, and the NDP have a pretty commanding lead in the "Unlikely" voter category.
Considering that in a month we'll still have a month of campaign left, I'd suggest that anyone who says math makes it impossible for any party to win probably doesn't know what they're talking about. I'm curious to see if Trudeau's focus on areas that aren't traditionally Liberal will have an impact. I'm also curious to see if Harper is going to keep focusing all his Quebec energy on winning Pierre Trudeau's old riding, or if he'll try to solidify some of his Quebec City seats.
CPC 31 (-7)
LPC 29 (+4)
NDP 29 (+2)
GPC 6
That's among decided voters. When you include undecideds, it's CPC 26/NDP 26/LPC 24/Undecided 18, and when you look at leaning & decided, it's CPC 31/NDP 30/LPC 29. They found that Trudeau's debate performance helped him a lot, especially in Toronto (which Forum also found), and that the Liberals are looking like they might sweep Atlantic Canada (though it still has a huge number of undecideds). The NDP are still very strong in BC, but their lead in Quebec has basically vanished (though I suspect that they may have a more efficient vote there, and are probably going to spread their vote around enough to still keep a plurality of seats). The Conservatives still have the Prairies, though the Liberals are surging in Manitoba (where the NDP is doing surprisingly poorly), and Ontario is narrowly CPC.
The Conservatives lead among "Certain" voters, the Liberals are ahead in both the "Likely" and "Might Vote" categories, and the NDP have a pretty commanding lead in the "Unlikely" voter category.
Considering that in a month we'll still have a month of campaign left, I'd suggest that anyone who says math makes it impossible for any party to win probably doesn't know what they're talking about. I'm curious to see if Trudeau's focus on areas that aren't traditionally Liberal will have an impact. I'm also curious to see if Harper is going to keep focusing all his Quebec energy on winning Pierre Trudeau's old riding, or if he'll try to solidify some of his Quebec City seats.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
lol, I can't believe I'm now CanadaGAF's separatist boogeyman. Watch out, creepy francophobe, I'm gonna destroy your beautiful country and force you to speak french. I'm racist like that.
CitizenVectron
Member
Looks like some of Harper's PMO staff (including current chief of staff and some party lawyers) have been caught lying with the Duffy case. They released statements back in 2013 saying they were out of the loop and knew nothing, but the email archive that Mclean's has shows that they were indeed involved. Nothing shows the PM absolutely knew anything, but some emails indicate he knew the broad strokes of Duffy's repayments. Harper still has plausible deniability.
CitizenVectron
Member
Campaign sign spotted:
BigJonsson
Member
Gowron had the endorsement of Picard, 'nuff said
Actually, he didn't open those emails apparently. I, for one, find this totally plausible.
matthewwhatever
Member
If there's one thing Harper is known for, it's being a real laissez-faire kind of boss. I'm sure most of his staffers are told they can get to emails whenever they have time.
As far as I can tell:
- they're probably hoping to retain a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. With Mackay gone, though, I don't know how plausible that is. There are one or two other ridings where they were had big wins, but for the most part, the ridings they have were won by pretty narrow margins. I can't see that repeating itself this time, when Harper is so disliked out there.
- they seem to think that their pandering to the Jewish vote will pick them up Mount Royal (Quebec) now that Irwin Cotler is gone, though even if they get that (which is far from a sure thing), their few other Quebec MPs may all be gone.
- rural Ontario + parts of the GTA
- rural Manitoba
- Saskatchewan & Alberta
- rural BC
Admittedly, I haven't counted up all the ridings, but I have a really hard time seeing all those add up to another majority. Even in the very best case scenario, I have to think it only yields the thinnest majority possible. Then again, their entire strategy is about only appealing to a very specific, defined voter base, so maybe they don't mind razor-thin wins?
Oh good, you guys are going to continue your argument here. That will be productive.
As far as I can tell:
- they're probably hoping to retain a couple of seats in Atlantic Canada. With Mackay gone, though, I don't know how plausible that is. There are one or two other ridings where they were had big wins, but for the most part, the ridings they have were won by pretty narrow margins. I can't see that repeating itself this time, when Harper is so disliked out there.
- they seem to think that their pandering to the Jewish vote will pick them up Mount Royal (Quebec) now that Irwin Cotler is gone, though even if they get that (which is far from a sure thing), their few other Quebec MPs may all be gone.
- rural Ontario + parts of the GTA
- rural Manitoba
- Saskatchewan & Alberta
- rural BC
Admittedly, I haven't counted up all the ridings, but I have a really hard time seeing all those add up to another majority. Even in the very best case scenario, I have to think it only yields the thinnest majority possible. Then again, their entire strategy is about only appealing to a very specific, defined voter base, so maybe they don't mind razor-thin wins?
Oh good, you guys are going to continue your argument here. That will be productive.
gutter_trash
Banned
Conservatives are not winning Mount-Royal, even if media attention has been high for that riding, there is a huge population of minority voters in the Western portion of that riding that don't share the positions of their Jewish-Conservative neighbors.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Royal_(electoral_district)#Demographics
36% is the Conservative ceiling in that riding. While the Liberal ceiling exceeds 50%
if there is one riding where NDP supporters are willing to vote strategic Liberal to block a Conservative... this is one of them
But he then started making irrational decisions. Martok knew Gowron had to go but was too weak to act on his own, the coward.
matthewwhatever
Member
Technically the Liberal ceiling exceeds 90%, since that's what Cotler got the first time he won the riding back in 1998.
You're also forgetting one other key thing: the Conservatives -- or, at least, someone who may or may not be loosely affiliated with them -- is trying goose the conservative-leaning Jewish population in the riding by flying Canadian-Israel dual citizens back in time for the election.
That'd be blatantly illegal, of course, but when has legality ever stopped the CPC?
Lone_Prodigy
Member
Thomas "Another Career Politician We Can't Afford" Mulcair is a pretty weak attack ad.
LOL The only career politician in the running these days in Harper -____-
Hm. So that's why they were a little up in arms about some of the riding redistributions being mostly urban. That means the CPC would have the most to lose, or at the very least, the least to gain.
gutter_trash
Banned
the irony is the Expats over 5 years like Donald Sutherland are not allowed to vote
That's the biggest problem. Conservative voters, older people, are traditionally the most likely to go out and vote. Young people are likely to say "eh, whatever" and stay at home.
We need to get Tumblr on this.
If you think this will affect Harper at all you haven't been paying attention the last 8 years.
This is all happening during the election campaign. People, such as myself, are paying attention right now. Is it not possible for the other parties to effectively use this material to bring down Harper in the eyes of the public?
CitizenVectron
Member
I mean, his obstinateness might work. Basically there is now proof that much of his inner circle knew about the payment scheme and efforts to change the Senate audit, but he is still insisting they didn't. It's entirely possible he will refuse to fire any of them and just keep saying they knew nothing through the entire election. His base won't really care.
65-70% of the country will be voting for other parties no matter what. This scandal doesn't really push any more voters away from him, and it doesn't really move any toward either the NDP or Liberals. Really the only guaranteed way for Harper to lose is for either the NDP or Liberals to stumble in a giant way and have the momentum massively shift on the left to the other party.
65-70% of the country will be voting for other parties no matter what. This scandal doesn't really push any more voters away from him, and it doesn't really move any toward either the NDP or Liberals. Really the only guaranteed way for Harper to lose is for either the NDP or Liberals to stumble in a giant way and have the momentum massively shift on the left to the other party.
People voting for him are likely to forgive a bit of "misbehaviour" because he's "tough on terrorism" and similar bullshit.
Remember the Toronto election and how Ford was still polling high after an unending stream of scandals and policy disasters? Realistically, the only thing that prevented him from being reelected was him sitting it out due to his health issues.
Yup. Barring something completely unimaginable, Harper is pretty much guaranteed that 30%. The deciding factor is how the rest of the vote will be split
gutter_trash
Banned
as a Liberal voter, I didn't care about Ad-Scam... to me, it was for the good of the country to splatter pro-Canada signs everywhere. so the ends justified the means
Good points. Still hoping that Harper won't be able to escape the Duffy ordeal unscathed.
CitizenVectron
Member
Right, and that is what is wrong with politics and supporters. I mean, another easy way to discredit the opposition would be to break into their home and plant a dead hooker's body there and call the cops and media. But that's wrong, even if it tanks their numbers.
gutter_trash
Banned
my point is that the Duffy trial will not affect partisan Conservative supporters at all.
it may dissuade bellwether voters but not the base
it may dissuade bellwether voters but not the base
Eh, while it's true that scandals like this might not sway true believers from their ballot choice, that doesn't mean it can't persuade them to stay home if they don't perceive a second choice that's acceptable. That is actually a danger of the unification of either end of the spectrum.
Well, there's plenty of soft-blue center-right voters in the GTA area so it may have a non-insignificant effect.
Yeah in swing ridings any depression of turnaround from disgusted conservatives and extra enthusiasm from non Con 'Kick the bums out' types might make a huge difference. It's not only support but getting your supporters out to the polls.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Why am I not surprised by this post at all...
matthewwhatever
Member
In gutter's defense, Adscam wasn't nearly as bad as it initially seemed. Once you look past the sensationalistic testimony, they actual amount was extremely low.
I think this nails it. If he pulls a Chretien and continues to minimize the scandal no matter what, he'll be fine. If he suddenly turns into Paul Martin and spends the next two months running around saying that this is the worst scandal ever and how dare the government allow something of this magnitude to happen and that voters should be outraged at the people in power, then, yeah, the Conservatives might lose some people...but I can't imagine that happening. Harper has stayed in power this long in part because he's always presented an even keel, and I think he'll keep doing that.
It works especially well when his voters aren't going anywhere else -- whereas the Liberals bled support to the CPC and NDP. Some red Tories (assuming any remain) may go Liberal, and some anti-government Reformers may go NDP, but Harper has the advantage of having very dedicated voters. As Azih has said, his only concern is them staying home.
I think this nails it. If he pulls a Chretien and continues to minimize the scandal no matter what, he'll be fine. If he suddenly turns into Paul Martin and spends the next two months running around saying that this is the worst scandal ever and how dare the government allow something of this magnitude to happen and that voters should be outraged at the people in power, then, yeah, the Conservatives might lose some people...but I can't imagine that happening. Harper has stayed in power this long in part because he's always presented an even keel, and I think he'll keep doing that.
It works especially well when his voters aren't going anywhere else -- whereas the Liberals bled support to the CPC and NDP. Some red Tories (assuming any remain) may go Liberal, and some anti-government Reformers may go NDP, but Harper has the advantage of having very dedicated voters. As Azih has said, his only concern is them staying home.
He can evade all he likes, but this one is occurring during the election campaign, so it's going to stick with him, even if it won't harm his party's base. he however , might not come out completely unscathed. Like step down after election win or lose type tarnished
Barring a major scandal destroying both the PLC and NDP at the same time, is there anyway Harper can be Prime minister again in october? The chances of the Cons getting a majority is almost nil at this point. If they get a minority, the NDP and PLC have no choice but to work together, if only to be in control of when the next election will be. Both parties will be broke so they can't let the Cons have any say in that. Not only that, but if either Mulcair or Trudeau refuse to form a coalition and let Harper govern, he'll probably be destroyed in the polls because of the gigantic Anybody-but-Harper crowd shifting its support to the other party.
CitizenVectron
Member
It's entirely possible it could weaken him if there are new big revelations. So far the inner circle thing is the biggest, and it will be on the front pages on Monday probably under headlines like "Prime Minister's Office was involved in Duffy-Wright deal" or something like that.
CitizenVectron
Member
There are only 2 ways Harper continues to be Prime Minister after the election:
1) His party gets 35% of the vote and the NDP/Liberals split so perfectly that the CPC ekes out an incredibly slim majority.
2) He has a strong minority and the Block holds the balance of power, not the Liberals or Greens. If that is the case, then it would be hard for the Liberals and NDP to try to form a coalition because they'd also need the backing of the Bloc, and that is what tanked the 2008 attempted coalition.
gutter_trash
Banned
send my regards to Gilles
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