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[matthewwhatever]

That same national coverage spent tens of thousands of words, mere days before, talking about how the PCs could win nothing short of a minority and would probably still sweep to a majority no matter what the polls said. I don't put a lot of stock into their coverage of Alberta politics.

Sorry, I meant to imply that I trust you a lot more than what the national political reporters were saying -- I was in a hurry to get to a meeting and left that part out.

Interesting story from the G&M about Mulcair's leadership style:

As NDP Leader, Mr. Mulcair has all but shut down the debate within his caucus on the two most pressing concerns of Canadian progressives – income inequality and expansion of the oil sands. Not only has he ruled out raising taxes on the wealthy, something Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau advocates, he chides jurisdictions that have done so.

EDIT: Unrelated to the above, but watching Harper on TV at one of his rallies right now in Regina. It boggles my mind that the Conservatives even have partial ownership of "money for families" issue when so much of their plan -- scarce as it is at the moment -- is geared around giving money to rich people. Especially with the economy in the tank and oil continuing to plummet. It just makes no sense to me.

 

[SRG01]

Sorry, I meant to imply that I trust you a lot more than what the national political reporters were saying -- I was in a hurry to get to a meeting and left that part out.

Interesting story from the G&M about Mulcair's leadership style:

I think it's partly due to his desire to be a "big tent" player in Canadian politics, which includes center/center-left high-income earners who are traditionally Liberal voters.

 

[CitizenVectron]

here is hoping that Conservatives fall to 3rd Place

Unlikely. The CPC, barring any major sex-type scandal, will probably win 30% support in every election they exist in until the end of time due to their base. They also tend to over perform in elections. I would expect 33-34% support in this election.

In fact, I will make my official predictions now (feel free to quote me later in case I need to eat crow:

CPC - 33%
NDP - 32%
LPC - 26%
GP - 5%
BQ - 5%

This will result in a fairly strong Conservative minority (in the range of 130-140 seats with the NDP and Liberals ultimately taking power in some sort of accord (though not official coalition).

 

[Pedrito]

So after the Cons win a minority, can we get Trudeau and Mulcair as co-PM? Better yet, add May for the triumvirate.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Sorry, I meant to imply that I trust you a lot more than what the national political reporters were saying -- I was in a hurry to get to a meeting and left that part out.

Interesting story from the G&M about Mulcair's leadership style:

Yep. This election everyone has moved to the centre. Everyone is for the "middle class" and there's no one advocating for low income persons and working class people. It is a shame.

Consider for example Trudeau's "middle class" tax cut.

We’re going to give a tax break to middle class Canadians by asking the wealthiest Canadians to give a little more.

A Liberal government will cut the middle class income bracket by 7% (from 22% to 20.5%) and introduce a new tax bracket of 33% for incomes over $200,000.

That means you could save nearly $670 per person every year! With a maximum benefit of nearly $1350 for a couple.

Wow sounds great... except that due to how marginal taxes work, that tax cut is only on income earned in that 45k-90k bracket, so only people who earn north of 90k fully benefit. If you make ~50k a year you get almost no tax cut. You have to earn 90k to earn the full benefit of the tax cut. The new tax hike only kicks in north of 200k, so basically the “middle class” tax cut from Trudeau is a tax cut for rich people who make between $90-200k.

More on the Liberal tax cut economics here

What about a tax cut for low income earners? *tumbleweed*

Not even the NDP is advancing one.

The only promise I can find that would strongly benefit low income earners, aside from improved childcare from Libs/NDP, is the NDP's promise to give an additional cent of the gas tax to municipalities. Municipalities provide a lot of infrastructure and services to low income people (eg. bus service) so I think giving municipalities more revenue would strongly benefit low income people.

 

[SRG01]

Yep. This election everyone has moved to the centre. Everyone is for the "middle class" and there's no one advocating for low income persons and working class people. It is a shame.

Consider for example Trudeau's "middle class" tax cut.



Wow sounds great... except that due to how marginal taxes work, that tax cut is only on income earned in that 45k-90k bracket, so only people who earn north of 90k fully benefit. If you make ~50k a year you get almost no tax cut. You have to earn 90k to earn the full benefit of the tax cut. The new tax hike only kicks in north of 200k, so basically the “middle class” tax cut from Trudeau is a tax cut for rich people who make between $90-200k.

More on the Liberal tax cut economics here

What about a tax cut for low income earners? *tumbleweed*

Not even the NDP is advancing one.

The only promise I can find that would strongly benefit low income earners, aside from improved childcare from Libs/NDP, is the NDP's promise to give an additional cent of the gas tax to municipalities. Municipalities provide a lot of infrastructure and services to low income people (eg. bus service) so I think giving municipalities more revenue would strongly benefit low income people.

To be completely fair, income tax cuts don't work for low income earners because they earn too little for income tax cuts to affect their day to day, non-discretionary expenses.

The best way to help low income earners is through direct intervention, like enhanced welfare, EI, income supplements, things like that. That's why programs like the Old Age Supplement exist.

 

[Tiktaalik]

To be completely fair, income tax cuts don't work for low income earners because they earn too little for income tax cuts to affect their day to day, non-discretionary expenses.

The best way to help low income earners is through direct intervention, like enhanced welfare, EI, income supplements, things like that. That's why programs like the Old Age Supplement exist.

and low income tax credits, which is more what I meant than tax cut. I mean a tax cut on the lowest tax bracket benefits everyone above as well. A tax credit is more targeted.

 

[gutter_trash]

fake smiling Tom is getting more annoying with every fake smile

 

[Silexx]

To be completely fair, income tax cuts don't work for low income earners because they earn too little for income tax cuts to affect their day to day, non-discretionary expenses.

The best way to help low income earners is through direct intervention, like enhanced welfare, EI, income supplements, things like that. That's why programs like the Old Age Supplement exist.

Old Age Security. The supplement is called Guaranteed Income Supplement.

Sorry, I work for OAS, so I figured I was qualified to clarify. 😜

 

[Tiktaalik]

I mean I'm not even really talking about near poverty levels of low income here.

The median income of Metro Vancouver is only $41,981. If those folks have kids then they're getting some benefits out of the various NDP/Liberal plans, but otherwise nope.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Unlikely. The CPC, barring any major sex-type scandal, will probably win 30% support in every election they exist in until the end of time due to their base. They also tend to over perform in elections. I would expect 33-34% support in this election.

This is the worrisome thing about all the polling. The last several elections, they've actually gotten 5-6 points more than their polls have suggested they'd get. They do get an artificial bump from Alberta -- where a significant chunk of their votes are just wasted, inefficient extras -- but yeah: until they hit, like, below 25%, they still have a very good chance of winning with a decent-sized plurality.

Also, this reminds me: one of the best things about elections is the Hill & Knowlton Election Predictor. They haven't updated it yet for the current election, but it's so much fun to see what happens with little swings of percentage points.

Yep. This election everyone has moved to the centre. Everyone is for the "middle class" and there's no one advocating for low income persons and working class people. It is a shame.

...

What about a tax cut for low income earners? *tumbleweed*

Not even the NDP is advancing one.

The only promise I can find that would strongly benefit low income earners, aside from improved childcare from Libs/NDP, is the NDP's promise to give an additional cent of the gas tax to municipalities. Municipalities provide a lot of infrastructure and services to low income people (eg. bus service) so I think giving municipalities more revenue would strongly benefit low income people.

I like how you just kind of lump the Liberal and NDP childcare ideas together as a way of saying that no one's talking about the poor. It gives the NDP a pass for wanting to continue Harper's UCCB, which has no means testing in place and penalizes poorer families by making it taxable. The Liberal benefit would be tax-free, and it wouldn't rely on asking the provinces to chip in with billions of dollars for cheap childcare.

That said, I agree in general that not enough attention is being paid to poverty. Only the Greens are actually talking about the poor: one of their major planks is the Guaranteed Livable Income...but let's be realistic: it's probably never happening here, no matter how many people may tell pollsters that they think we need to address income disparity.

 

[Tiktaalik]

I like how you just kind of lump the Liberal and NDP childcare ideas together as a way of saying that no one's talking about the poor. It gives the NDP a pass for wanting to continue Harper's UCCB, which has no means testing in place and penalizes poorer families by making it taxable. The Liberal benefit would be tax-free, and it wouldn't rely on asking the provinces to chip in with billions of dollars for cheap childcare.

That said, I agree in general that not enough attention is being paid to poverty. Only the Greens are actually talking about the poor: one of their major planks is the Guaranteed Livable Income...but let's be realistic: it's probably never happening here, no matter how many people may tell pollsters that they think we need to address income disparity.

I lumped the NDP/Libs together not because I'm handwaving away the big differences in their childcare platforms, but because I wanted to talk about the parts that affected everyone and not just families with children. There are plenty of people that don't have kids and obviously won't directly benefit from various childcare initiatives.

 

[Hilti92]

What is the NDPs thought on marijuana? I've been trying to research it but all I can find is that Mulclair has "smoked some oregano" and that they feel it needs to be researched more.

 

[S-Wind]

Ms. Liu’s reception, generally warm, has sometimes been marred by ugly remarks about age and race. At a community event one night early in her tenure, a former Bloc MP for the riding, Gilles Perron, repeatedly referred to Ms. Liu as la petite Chinoise. (She insists the incident was “in no way representative of my general experience.” Mr. Perron could not be reached for comment.)

I'm reminded of yesterday's Quebec thread.

 

[Silexx]

What is the NDPs thought on marijuana? I've been trying to research it but all I can find is that Mulclair has "smoked some oregano" and that they feel it needs to be researched more.

They support decriminalization, but not legalization. Haven't really vowed to bring it to motion either so who knows if they ever get around to it if elected.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

I lumped the NDP/Libs together not because I'm handwaving away the big differences in their childcare platforms, but because I wanted to talk about the parts that affected everyone and not just families with children. There are plenty of people that don't have kids and obviously won't directly benefit from various childcare initiatives.

You're right, but poor people with kids have greater need for wealth transfers than those who don't:

1. Kids are expensive; they need food, clothes, space, childcare, transportation to/from school, health/dental/meds, etc
2. People living without kids can get by with lower cost housing options, such as renting a smaller apartment (single bedroom or bachelor) or having roomates that families with kids can't usually get away with
3. Having kids at all often prevents young poor women from being able to work at all, because they can't afford childcare costs; even just adding good cheap federal daycare is a big win
4. Poorer young people are much more likely to have kids than their peers that are better off; you're fairly likely to hit a lot of poor people just by aiming at those with kids

 

[SRG01]

Old Age Security. The supplement is called Guaranteed Income Supplement.

Sorry, I work for OAS, so I figured I was qualified to clarify. 😜

Oh shit, I had a brain fart, sorry :3

 

[gutter_trash]

I'm reminded of yesterday's Quebec thread.

that was a cluster fuck of a thread

 

[matthewwhatever]

Just checked out They Called Me Number One: Secrets and Survival at an Indian Residential School from the library. First Nation issues is one thing about this federal election that I'm completely ignorant about. I wish they would've taught these things at school; I learnt nothing other than "Natives don't pay taxes and get free university".

What sparked my interest was reading Nelson Mandela's biography Long Walk To Freedom, where the languages surrounding Bantustans (land reserved for Blacks) eerily reminded me of Indian Reserves. A quick Google search, and sure enough, the Canadian Indian Reservation system directly influenced Apartheid in South Africa. You'd never hear about that in school or in Canadian media. I felt lied to >_<

Bringing this post back up because the Liberals just unveiled their First Nations proposals:
- $515 million per year in core annual funding for First Nations K-12 education, rising to over $750 million per year by the end of the first mandate.
- $500 million over the next three years for First Nations education infrastructure.
- $50 million to the Post-Secondary Student Support Program, which provides financial assistance to Indigenous students who attend post-secondary schools.
- lifting the two per cent cap on federal funding for First Nations programs
- launching a national inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women

I've always been a little weirded out by this government's position on that last point. How can anyone be opposed to a MMIW inquiry? It seems like such a basic, easy thing to do.

 

[Azih]

It's good. I like it. I would like some auditing of the money though. I get the horrible feeling that there are some chiefs who just suck up the money for themselves through schemes.

 

[AuthenticM]

So if I want to block the conservatives' chances of winning, I need to vote for the NPD? Is this what I am getting?

 

[Azih]

So if I want to block the conservatives' chances of winning, I need to vote for the NPD? Is this what I am getting?

Where do youuuu livvve?

 

[AuthenticM]

Where do youuuu livvve?

Somewhere where the NPD won by a landslide last time.

 

[gutter_trash]

So if I want to block the conservatives' chances of winning, I need to vote for the NPD? Is this what I am getting?

what is your riding?

all depends where you live.

if it's an NDP vs Liberal fight, you vote for who you like better.

if it is a Conservative vs Liberal fight, you vote Liberal
if it is a Conservative vs NDP fight, you vote NDP

 

[Azih]

Somewhere where the NPD won by a landslide last time.

There you go then. Somewhere in Quebec since you're saying NPD?

 

[gutter_trash]

There you go then. Somewhere in Quebec since you're saying NPD?

as long as you don't vote Bloc, you are alright

 

[Morrigan Stark]

Good article following up on one of those Orange wave candidates: Laurin Liu. I've only posted part due to length but it's worth following the link and reading the whole thing.

She seems like she's been a good MP for her riding. I hope she stays in and can beat off the Bloc challenger.

Cool read, good for her! Also fuck that Perron asshole.

that was a cluster fuck of a thread

Now I'm afraid to ask for a link...

 

[maharg]

Good article following up on one of those Orange wave candidates: Laurin Liu. I've only posted part due to length but it's worth following the link and reading the whole thing.

She seems like she's been a good MP for her riding. I hope she stays in and can beat off the Bloc challenger.

The reaction to the newbie caucuses in both Quebec and Alberta drives me nuts. Here we are, endlessly lamenting the disengagement of youth from politics. Yet when a crop of engaged youth show up and (however haphazardly) do something to participate in the democratic process above and beyond even mere voting, a big giant dump is taken on them.

Almost certainly almost all of them want to do right by their party and their constituents, even if they didn't expect to win or even really compete. So-called 'paper candidates' will always be a part of a non-establishment party coming up in competitiveness, and the people who run as paper candidates are doing more for democracy than some dickhead columnist in The Sun.

 

[gutter_trash]

can't find any of it on French language news sites about Liu

although the Political Correctness bar is set lower in Quebec

 

[Lone_Prodigy]

There's a new riding in Vancouver made up of former Conservative, Liberal, and NDP ridings. Could be a very interesting 3-way race.

Bringing this post back up because the Liberals just unveiled their First Nations proposals:
- $515 million per year in core annual funding for First Nations K-12 education, rising to over $750 million per year by the end of the first mandate.
- $500 million over the next three years for First Nations education infrastructure.
- $50 million to the Post-Secondary Student Support Program, which provides financial assistance to Indigenous students who attend post-secondary schools.
- lifting the two per cent cap on federal funding for First Nations programs
- launching a national inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women

I've always been a little weirded out by this government's position on that last point. How can anyone be opposed to a MMIW inquiry? It seems like such a basic, easy thing to do.

Calling an inquiry means admitting that there is such a problem, and that the government may be at fault for such problem. It's possibly a liability issue.

 

[Popstar]

There's a new riding in Vancouver made up of former Conservative, Liberal, and NDP ridings. Could be a very interesting 3-way race.

If you're talking about Vancouver-Granville it's not looking any where near as competitive as people thought it would be according to threehundredeight.

Going by polling stations it was Conservative last election. So I would be surprised if the conservative vote is as low on election day as that website is projecting.

 

[gutter_trash]

changes in boundaries can really change the outcome depending on the demographic difference of the boundary change

Ahuntsic now has Cartierville tacked onto it: that tilts it more towards Liberals and away from Bloc or NDP than vanilla Ahuntsic

 

[Tiktaalik]

If you're talking about Vancouver-Granville it's not looking any where near as competitive as people thought it would be according to threehundredeight.

Going by polling stations it was Conservative last election. So I would be surprised if the conservative vote is as low on election day as that website is projecting.

There's a coloured map of the riding in this article

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/pi...ontested+Vancouver+riding/11255605/story.html

 

[dragonfart28]

This story is a goldmine lol

Trudeau pledge to grow economy 'from the heart outwards' greeted with mockery

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/politics/trudeau-heart-economy-care-bears-1.3190219

 

[eBay Huckster]

If you're talking about Vancouver-Granville it's not looking any where near as competitive as people thought it would be according to threehundredeight.

Going by polling stations it was Conservative last election. So I would be surprised if the conservative vote is as low on election day as that website is projecting.

fwiw I think that's extrapolating all-Vancouver voting intentions onto Vancouver-Granville

 

[gutter_trash]

This story is a goldmine lol

Trudeau pledge to grow economy 'from the heart outwards' greeted with mockery

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/politics/trudeau-heart-economy-care-bears-1.3190219

laugh it up, fake smiling Tom isn't becoming Prime Minister in October

 

[CitizenVectron]

laugh it up, fake smiling Tom isn't becoming Prime Minister in October

Let me ask you this: If Harper gets 140 seats, the NDP get 125, and the Liberals get 90, would you rather have Harper stay as Prime Minister or have Mulcair become PM with an accord of support from the Liberals?

It's basically impossible for the Liberals to win government due to the NDP holding Quebec and the CPC holding Ontario's suburbs and Alberta. The most the Liberals could ever get is something like 120 seats, and that's if they make major breakthroughs in both BC and Ontario, which is very unlikely as the NDP seems to be holding BC solidly. The Liberals no longer have a geographic base, while the NDP and CPC do. If you want to save the Liberal Party of Canada, then you'd better hope for an NDP government. If the CPC wins a majority then the NDP will remain opposition and it's likely the Liberals Party will be relegated to 3rd party for a generation without a geographic base to rely on. But if the NDP win (especially with an accord with the Liberals, or coalition), then it's likely that some form of mixed-member proportional representation will be brought into effect and voting Liberal will give them the balance of power in most elections between the NDP and CPC, making them relevant again.

 

[gutter_trash]

Justin will be our next Prime Minister

 

[CitizenVectron]

Justin will be our next Prime Minister

I edited my post to say a few more things, hopefully you will respond to them as well, especially the mathematical near-impossibility of the Liberals getting more than 100-120 seats (which is in a near-perfect mobilization for them). I mean it's nice to hope and all that, but you have no plan to victory you can really lay out, while the NDP and CPC have them. And unlike the CPC, the NDP don't even need to get the most seats to form government.

 

[gutter_trash]

I edited my post to say a few more things, hopefully you will respond to them as well, especially the mathematical near-impossibility of the Liberals getting more than 100-120 seats (which is in a near-perfect mobilization for them).

it is not near impossible, there is like 11 weeks left. Time favors Trudeau not Harper.

Tom can't get Ontario

 

[CitizenVectron]

it is not near impossible, there is like 11 weeks left. Time favors Trudeau not Harper.

Tom can't get Ontario

The NDP don't need Ontario. With their current polling in Quebec and BC (and elsewhere) they can pull about 120-150 seats depending on some close races. So they either finish slightly ahead or slightly behind the CPC. Much like Harper proved you can form government with Quebec, the NDP are showing right now you can form government without Ontario (as long as you win 20-30 seats there, which they are going to do, based on last election and the current polls).

Obviously things can change, but there is no evidence that the Liberals have an actually path to victory, and you haven't laid one out like I just did for the NDP and CPC. You just assume that magically everyone will be smitten with Trudeau and will vote for the LPC.

 

[eBay Huckster]

of course "Tom won't get Ontario". he'll just get BC and Quebec and ~20-30 ON seats instead and still be the non-Harper leader best equipped to form government like literally everything short of Mainstreet is showing

 

[Tiktaalik]

it is not near impossible, there is like 11 weeks left. Time favors Trudeau not Harper.

Tom can't get Ontario

Well Libs winning Ontario and the Atlantic provinces will win them nothing greater than third place.

Agreed that it's too early for this sort of discussion as there is so much longer to go. I feel like we're all likely to get bored and return to summer vacation and the polls aren't going to move an inch until late September.

 

[Pedrito]

"Tom isn't becoming Prime Minister in October"
"Justin will be our next Prime Minister"
"Time favors Trudeau not Harper"
"Tom can't get Ontario"

So many facts, yet no reasoning.

 

[CitizenVectron]

of course "Tom won't get Ontario". he'll just get BC and Quebec and ~20-30 ON seats instead and still be the non-Harper leader best equipped to form government

Exactly. They don't even need to gain anything in Ontario to form government. And if they can go up even 3-4% in Ontario (so basically a 3-way tie in Ontario) then they will have a plurality of seats. BC+QC = ON now, in terms of NDP power there.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Exactly. They don't even need to gain anything in Ontario to form government. And if they can go up even 3-4% in Ontario (so basically a 3-way tie in Ontario) then they will have a plurality of seats. BC+QC = ON now, in terms of NDP power there.

and incidentally, gutter_trash's "there is like 11 weeks left" also implies the NDP's totally capable of doing this (but probably outside the 905)

 

[CitizenVectron]

It's possible for the LPC to win a plurality if huge scandals rock the NDP and CPC. And I don't mean the whole Duffy thing, I mean like Harper and Mulcair being caught sleeping with each other inside a drug-filled van or something.

But unless Harper does something incredibly dumb, he will hold onto 30-33% of the vote. Mulcair and Trudeau could trade some, but in almost every scenario the NDP comes out on top between the two due to QC and BC. It's the CPC's election to lose in terms of a plurality of seats, and the NDP's election to lose in terms of forming government.

Trudeau can talk all he wants about not forming a coalition or supporting an NDP minority, but he would if it came to it as the NDP's objectives are a lot closer to his than Harper's are.

 

[gutter_trash]

this is what will happen in an NDP minority government:

LPC ''we will support the government on an issue by issue basiss''

then the NDP starts of its session ''we vote to repeal the Clarity Act''

LPC goes ''you can't be serious? We pass a motion of No Confidence''

Cons ''we got lots of money, bring it''

 

[CitizenVectron]

this is what will happen in an NDP minority government:

LPC ''we will support the government on an issue by issue basiss''

then the NDP starts of its session ''we vote to repeal the Clarity Act''

LPC goes ''you can't be serious? We pass a motion of No Confidence''

Cons ''we got lots of money, bring it''

Since you aren't showing any sources for either of these assertions (that it would be the NDP's first motion, or even any motion at all in a first term), and that the Liberals wouldn't sign some sort of accord, I think it's safe to say you are running on hopes and dreams, and not actual evidence that the Liberals stand any chance of forming government.

This is doubly evident because you are trying to change the topic to what an NDP government would do, not to the actual questions posed to you about what the LPC's path to electoral victory is without BC and QC.

 

[GSG Flash]

this is what will happen in an NDP minority government:

LPC ''we will support the government on an issue by issue basiss''

then the NDP starts of its session ''we vote to repeal the Clarity Act''

LPC goes ''you can't be serious? We pass a motion of No Confidence''

Cons ''we got lots of money, bring it''

I think you think the Clarity Act is more important to the NDP than it actually is.

edit: Or the Liberals for that matter