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[UberTag]

I don't see how going from almost forming government to losing about half your seats is a cause for celebration.

It's not a cause for celebration. It's just not an epic disaster, either.

 

[Kinsei]

I don't see how going from almost forming government to losing about half your seats is a cause for celebration.

It's a lot better than I was expecting them to do earlier. Glass half full and all that.

 

[Mailbox]

I don't agree with Tabris on anything, but I agree with this.

See, Justin working miracles already!

The whole thing about bringing us together was true!

 

[lupinko]

Trudeau calling CPC MP a POS in Parliament.

http://youtu.be/EKibHjyuCr4

sooogood.gif

 

[firehawk12]

The NDP blew up because Layton was someone people believed in. The party less so. And this just showed it.

I'm a die hard Liberal and even I liked Layton.

I can't find the 2011 thread, but at the time I remember saying that they needed to keep Quebec and they desperately tried and obviously failed. The NDP gains came from apathy with the Liberals and a desire to vote out Conservatives. Now that both of those things are gone, you can see that they barely have a base whatsoever. Maybe a corrupt Liberal government and an incompetent CPC gives the NDP another chance in the next decade, but that's just fanfiction at this point.

It's not a cause for celebration. It's just not an epic disaster, either.

It's a lot better than I was expecting them to do earlier. Glass half full and all that.

You guys are clearly more optimistic than me. For me this is as good as the party being a pointless protest party again.

 

[Tabris]

Trudeau calling CPC MP a POS in Parliament.

http://youtu.be/EKibHjyuCr4

sooogood.gif

I love Mulcair's giant smile when he says that. I had to watch it twice just for his reaction.

 

[mo60]

I can't find the 2011 thread, but at the time I remember saying that they needed to keep Quebec and they desperately tried and obviously failed. The NDP gains came from apathy with the Liberals and a desire to vote out Conservatives. Now that both of those things are gone, you can see that they barely have a base whatsoever. Maybe a corrupt Liberal government and an incompetent CPC gives the NDP another chance in the next decade, but that's just fanfiction at this point.



You guys are clearly more optimistic than me. For me this is as good as the party being a pointless protest party again.

They still have a good base in BC and to a lesser extent Quebec. They seem to be gaining votes in the praries slowly also.

 

[firehawk12]

They still have a good base in BC and a lesser extent Quebec. They seem to be gaining votes in the praries slowly also.

I mean, they couldn't count on their "base" in Atlantic Canada to help them, so I'm assuming the bottom hasn't dropped out on them yet.

In fact, if we see a resurgent CPC in 2019, I could see Trudeau asking NDP supporters to keep voting Liberal in order to prevent a CPC government... and I'm sure those people will respond to that call.

 

[lsslave]

I can't find the 2011 thread, but at the time I remember saying that they needed to keep Quebec and they desperately tried and obviously failed. The NDP gains came from apathy with the Liberals and a desire to vote out Conservatives. Now that both of those things are gone, you can see that they barely have a base whatsoever. Maybe a corrupt Liberal government and an incompetent CPC gives the NDP another chance in the next decade, but that's just fanfiction at this point.



You guys are clearly more optimistic than me. For me this is as good as the party being a pointless protest party again.

Oh I agree. I don't think the NDP will grow again for a long time. They are the alternative with a broken liberal party. It took a bit but the liberals got their shit together.

I'm more inclined to believe we will see even fewer seats next election.

 

[UberTag]

I can't find the 2011 thread, but at the time I remember saying that they needed to keep Quebec and they desperately tried and obviously failed.

To be fair, I'm not sure it's possible for ANY party to "keep" Quebec. Quebec doesn't like to be kept.

 

[firehawk12]

Oh I agree. I don't think the NDP will grow again for a long time. They are the alternative with a broken liberal party. It took a bit but the liberals got their shit together.

I'm more inclined to believe we will see even fewer seats next election.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the party becomes even more irrelevant as time goes on. They'll hover in their standard protest party position, with about as much power as the BQ and Elizabeth May.

At least they get more money because they are officially recognized I suppose.

To be fair, I'm not sure it's possible for ANY party to "keep" Quebec. Quebec doesn't like to be kept.

That's true, but when you almost sweep the province that was a sign. But hell, they were so ineffectual that they allowed the BQ to come back - even if it was only to double their seat count.

 

[disappeared]

Trudeau on Vice pre-pre election.

http://youtu.be/3hMgxzifzzs

Trudeau in Kelowna about our Aboriginal peoples and Cannibus. 2013

http://youtu.be/BetOS0y9mNg

Trudeau in Calgary Skyview about C-24, C-51 and more. July 2015


http://youtu.be/jN2nRLsiAVs

You elaborated much better than I did.

 

[lupinko]

You elaborated much better than I did.

And look, Darshan Kang from Calgary Skyview in that vid I posted won.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2265232/d...skyview-first-liberal-in-the-city-since-1968/

 

[Walpurgis]

I don't see how going from almost forming government to losing about half your seats is a cause for celebration.

We saw the polls so we already knew that the seat count would be low. However, with the percentage they had, this is the best outcome that we could hope for. 44 seats is awesome.

I know it sucks that the NDP got assassinated by the niqab but I know that they can lick their wounds to fight another day. I honestly more sad about the Liberal majority.

 

[Holmes]

In fact, if we see a resurgent CPC in 2019, I could see Trudeau asking NDP supporters to keep voting Liberal in order to prevent a CPC government... and I'm sure those people will respond to that call.

Yup, it'll be like the provincial situation in Ontario all over again. Liberals using scare tactics.

 

[maharg]

I mean, I hypothetically guessed that the NDP could blow up shortly after the last election because the Quebec thing was a pure protest vote. Right now the Liberals have the advantage of being the "natural governing party", so they can take some votes away from the CPC and also win back all those "borrowed votes" that Layton gained in 2008 and 2011. I think what we've seen now is most of the movement that we'll see in the foreseeable future.

Like I don't see any possible reality where the CPC wins seats in Toronto, for example. I think we can just accept that as a given for the purposes of fruitful speculation.

Couldn't sleep, so whatever. May as well post at least one more.

A lot of your posts can basically be boiled down to "if nothing ever changes, then nothing ever changes." I don't know how you come out of this election thinking campaigns don't matter. I seriously just don't.

 

[firehawk12]

Couldn't sleep, so whatever. May as well post at least one more.

A lot of your posts can basically be boiled down to "if nothing ever changes, then nothing ever changes." I don't know how you come out of this election thinking campaigns don't matter. I seriously just don't.

After 2011, I wondered how the NDP would actually win enough seats to form a government since they had most of Quebec, the only place they could realistically build a base was in Ontario. And I'm sure you probably said the same thing about campaigns back then too (at least this conversation feels very familiar. ).

And yeah, maybe it was silly of me to actually believe the polling numbers and think that Mulcair had a chance, but for a moment I believed in the dream... and then reality came crashing down and the "me" that was more realistic back in 2011 was actually right. Not only were they unable to hold any of their gains in Quebec, they lost Atlantic Canada and Ontario.

So maybe the lesson I should take is that I shouldn't have any hope at all. I was right to be skeptical of the miraculous NDP gains, so I'm going to assume I'm right about the NDP being irrelevant in the next election, if not the next several elections.

 

[UberTag]

Yup, it'll be like the provincial situation in Ontario all over again. Liberals using scare tactics.

With the Liberals taking power in Ottawa tonight, I would be SHOCKED to see Ontario not swing back over to Patrick Brown and the Tories the next time an election is called.
Ontarians love their electoral parity.

 

[Morrigan Stark]

What's going on in Kootenay? My friend from there, an NPD supporter, has been biting his nails all evening because it's such a tight race between NDP and the CPC, but I can't find any confirmation of results...

- This marks the third election in a row where Quebec has turfed their previous winner, and if they hadn't done so Trudeau wouldn't have a majority right now. Will they do it again next time? Who the fuck knows. Quebec has decided to be a magic 8 ball I guess.

They voted for Jaaaack in 2011. I'm guessing they voted for Justiiiiin now.

C-24 should be repealed right away. I can't wait for that.

I bet it'll be swept under the rug quietly, and that TPP will pass too. I'd love to be wrong, and I will legitimately stop hating on Trudeau if he does reject both and praise him as a great PM (though never to the cultist levels of gutter trash, I still have some dignity ).

 

[Dalthien]

- NDP have managed to eke out their second best performance in terms of ridings in their history, which is still a major achievement for them. The fact that they did this with a lower vote % is a testament to the fact that they've built up some baseline efficiency even in the face of a cataclysmic campaign failure.

I'm not arguing with your overall point - just pointing out that while their 44 seats this year is technically more than the 43 they won in 1988, this year's result is definitely the worse of the two. In 1988, they won 43 of 295 seats - in 2015 they won 44 of 338 seats. Proportionally, 1988 was definitely the better year for the NDP.

 

[maharg]

I'm not arguing with your overall point - just pointing out that while their 44 seats this year is technically more than the 43 they won in 1988, this year's result is definitely the worse of the two. In 1988, they won 43 of 295 seats - in 2015 they won 44 of 338 seats. Proportionally, 1988 was definitely the better year for the NDP.

This is an entirely valid point. It's 14% of seats vs. 13% of seats. Still, a lot of discussion of these things tends to be in terms of absolute seats for some reason.

After 2011, I wondered how the NDP would actually win enough seats to form a government since they had most of Quebec, the only place they could realistically build a base was in Ontario. And I'm sure you probably said the same thing about campaigns back then too (at least this conversation feels very familiar. ).

And I was right, as proven yet again tonight. Campaigns matter. Things change. The future is not an ever-static projection of the present.

What you're talking about in the rest of your post is cynicism, not realism.

 

[UberTag]

What's going on in Kootenay? My friend from there, an NPD supporter, has been biting his nails all evening because it's such a tight race between NDP and the CPC, but I can't find any confirmation of results...

Based on what I see on Global's election website, the NDP's Wayne Stetski managed to defeat CPC incumbent David Wilks by 285 votes. Not the tightest race this evening but close. The NDP edged out the Tories by a mere 51 votes in Elmwood-Transcona. Believe that was the narrowest race. In fact, the NDP won a bunch of tight races.

 

[maharg]

Based on what I see on Global's election website, the NDP's Wayne Stetski managed to defeat CPC incumbent David Wilks by 285 votes.
Not the tightest race this evening but close... Edmonton Mill Woods has it beat there. The Liberals edged out the Tories by 80 votes in that riding.

Really hope the Liberals keep that one. Quintupling the number of non-CPC seats in Alberta sounds so much better than quadrupling. Especially since early in the night it seemed like it might have only been doubling.

 

[firehawk12]

And I was right, as proven yet again tonight. Campaigns matter. Things change. The future is not an ever-static projection of the present.

What you're talking about in the rest of your post is cynicism, not realism.

Eh, I was right too. The only thing I didn't expect was the CPC eroding support because they tried to play the PQ "true Canadian" card.

Besides, I feel like our difference in opinion is that I'm just willing to make a prediction based on the information that we have now. Since I don't have a crystal ball, I have no idea how things will change, but based on the assumption that Trudeau isn't going to give banks massive corporate tax cuts and do other things that would alienate the newfound base, I feel confident that the NDP aren't going to capture any of the voters they lost in the next election. Things can change in 4 years, of course, but at that point it becomes pure speculation.

 

[maharg]

Eh, I was right too. The only thing I didn't expect was the CPC eroding support because they tried to play the PQ "true Canadian" card.

Besides, I feel like our difference in opinion is that I'm just willing to make a prediction based on the information that we have now. Since I don't have a crystal ball, I have no idea how things will change, but based on the assumption that Trudeau isn't going to give banks massive corporate tax cuts and do other things that would alienate the newfound base, I feel confident that the NDP aren't going to capture any of the voters they lost in the next election. Things can change in 4 years, of course, but at that point it becomes pure speculation.

That nothing will change is no less pure speculation than that something will change.

Also CPC support was eroding long before the Niqab. The CPC started this campaign at 30% and they ended it at 30%. The niqab was the only thing that gave them hope of victory.

I think that another thing that you don't really get is that Liberal and NDP voters are still promiscuous. There is a lot the Liberals could do that would piss off enough voters back to the NDP that would still be well within their wheelhouse of normal positions and actions. This is completely opposite to the situation with a CPC government, where that base of voters have literally nowhere to go except not to vote at all.

 

[mo60]

My final opinions about this election is that even though the ndp had victory snatched from them in like mid september and got crushed tonight by the Liberals the conservatives blew this election worse than the NDP because they were planning for this for years. They planned to have a balanced budget before this election so they can use the budget as something to hurt their opponents with. The conservatives were plotting to target justin and weaken him before right around the time he became leader of the Liberals and maybe before that to just like the previous liberal leaders and they even started targeting him like three years before this election in tv commericals and ads if I recall. They did manage to weaken him eventually but he recovered. They decided to call an early election so that they could have more time to sell their message and to spend more money and to also stop third party ads if I recall. They decided to change the election debate process so instead of parties participating in 2 debates usually they participated in five. They expected that trudeu will not meet expectations during these debates and he would make it easier for the conservatives to win government if I recall and he exceeded expectsations literally every single time in these debates. Their camapaign in August kept on going off message because of stuff like the Duffy trial and the syrian crisis which also hurt them a bit and made people angry. At this point it looks like they were doomed and it would be very hard for them to form a minority government. The conservatives did regain their footing eventually, but that was short lived.Sometime in mid to late september or early october if I recall the conservatives started to play identity poltics and promise weird stuff like a hotline to report people that do barbaric acts if I recall which some people did not liked and the niqab debate started up around then which grew their support in Quebec while it ate at the NDP support in Quebec. This started a turn for the worst for the conservative campaign and they started to ratchet up the fear with religious and cultural issues and other issues to coax people into voting for them and this lead to a rather disgusting end for their camapign and probably helped influenced multiple racial/islamaphobic attacks on people and election signs and the infamous comment from a conservative MP and media ads from the conservatives if I recall that tried to scare people into believing that they would introduce brothels, wanting to make it easier for kids to get weekd to smoke it and make it legal and safe injection sites in neighbourhood if I recall.This all lead to a drop in the conservatives minority support, The many candidates that got media attention especially in the conservative camp for doing something controversial and saying something controversial did not help them either. At one point multiple conservative candidates were being forced to drop out from the camapign in a week or even a day at a few times during this camapign because they did something controversial or said something controversial which probably hurt them a bit also. Also the conservative campaign seemed like it was to closed to the public at times. Reporters could only get a few questions asked per Conservative camapign event,reporters weren't really allowed to ask cabinet minsters questions or kept on repeating talking points like that infamous example of chris alexander on power and poltiics. All parties did this, but it hurt the conservatives even more especially with the Syrian crisis at one point in this election camapign. There are probably more stuff I missed that hurt the conservatives chances of forming government tonight, but still this was their election to win and to make history and they blew it badly compared to even the NDP.

 

[firehawk12]

That nothing will change is no less pure speculation than that something will change.

Also CPC support was eroding long before the Niqab. The CPC started this campaign at 30% and they ended it at 30%. The niqab was the only thing that gave them hope of victory.

Well there are also 3 million more voters this time, which introduced a new wrinkle.

And I guess my point is that I'm making some form of an educated guess based on the past. I don't deny it's speculation, but I don't feel like I should be paralyzed into not making any guesses because the situation is supposedly unpredictable.

 

[Popstar]

I was curious if Leadnow / Votetogether had missed the mark in other places as much as they had in Vancouver-Granville. They had four BC ridings in their Oct 9-11 poll.

Cariboo-Prince George - Leadnow recommended candidate: Trent Derrick (NDP)
Leadnow: 36 NDP / 30 Con / 29 Lib
Election: 25.9 NDP / 36.5 Con / 29.6 Lib

Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam - Local polling available: Sara Norman (NDP) leads
Leadnow: 34 NDP / 31 Con / 29 Lib
Election: 27.3 NDP / 31.9 Con / 35.1 Lib

North Okanagan-Shuswap - Leadnow recommended candidate: Jacqui Gingras (NDP)
Leadnow: 37 NDP / 33 Con / 22 Lib
Election: 25.6 NDP / 39.3 Con / 30.0 Lib

Vancouver-Granville - Leadnow recommended candidate: Mira Oreck (NDP)
Leadnow: 33 NDP / 28 Con / 35 Lib
Election: 26.9 NDP / 26.1 Con / 43.9 Lib

All three of their recommendations drew votes from the leading non-Conservative candidate (as did their one leads if people followed that). The one riding they could have gotten right was Vancouver-Granville had they not decided to mess that up too.

Not a good result for strategic voting.

 

[firehawk12]

I think that another thing that you don't really get is that Liberal and NDP voters are still promiscuous. There is a lot the Liberals could do that would piss off enough voters back to the NDP that would still be well within their wheelhouse of normal positions and actions. This is completely opposite to the situation with a CPC government, where that base of voters have literally nowhere to go except not to vote at all.

This is quick and dirty, and probably inaccurate if only because of the higher turnout, but based on the popular vote 10% of Liberal gains came from the CPC and 10% came from the NDP. So there are voters who would as likely go back to the CPC as much as there are voters who would go back to the NDP.

 

[lupinko]

Any chance the 36-> 184 seats meaning political instability in Canada?

No?

 

[firehawk12]

I ask because it seems like Canadians pulled a reverse (liberal) Syriza as a protest vote. We didn't start seeing that high percentage volatility until shit hit the fan here.

Canada is not Greece. Even if our dollar is worth nothing. lol

If anything, this means that the Liberals will rule with an iron fist and pass things like the TPP without a second thought.

 

[Enter the Dragon Punch]

Canada is not Greece. Even if our dollar is worth nothing. lol

If anything, this means that the Liberals will rule with an iron fist and pass things like the TPP without a second thought.

I understand how badly you wanted the NDP to win but I think you're being awfully hyperbolic. I doubt TPP will be passed without a second thought.

 

[lupinko]

Quintupling the percentage of a party does still seem insane to me though, especially for a model country like Canada.

It's not insane, the NDP who won 44 seats today, went from ~30 to ~100 in 2011, likewise the Liberals (who won the majority today) went from ~100 to ~30 in that same 2011 election.

 

[Tabris]

Canada is not Greece. Even if our dollar is worth nothing. lol.

Man some Canadians really need perspective. Our dollar is still quite strong on the international stage compared to most countries. Look to the Australian dollar which has a currently higher GDP growth.

Our GDP growth is still in the positives, even if stagnating a bit in comparison to previous growth patterns.

There was a balance between the doom and gloom painted and the "everything is fine" painted in our political landscape re: the economy.

 

[firehawk12]

Quadrupling the percentage of a party does still seem insane to me though, especially for a model country like Canada.

Yeah, it's a huge spike, but basically they were able to get votes from both sides of the political spectrum.

I understand how badly you wanted the NDP to win but I think you're being awfully hyperbolic. I doubt TPP will be passed without a second thought.

The Liberals were so wishywashy because they wanted to distinguish themselves from both parties, but do you realistically expect the Liberals to not pass TPP? If anything, it'll pass with both Liberal and Conservative votes.

Man some Canadians really need perspective. Our dollar is still quite strong on the international stage compared to most countries. Look to the Australian dollar which has a currently higher GDP growth.

Our GDP growth is still in the positives, even if stagnating a bit in comparison to previous growth patterns.

There was a balance between the doom and gloom painted and the "everything is fine" painted in our political landscape re: the economy.

As a consumer, all I know is that the cost of some of the goods I buy went up (particularly games which went up 20 dollars, since this is NeoGAF and what else do we buy except games and amiibos?) without a corresponding increase in wages. But I'm not an economist so I have no idea.

 

[Tabris]

The Liberals were so wishywashy because they wanted to distinguish themselves from both parties, but do you realistically expect the Liberals to not pass TPP? If anything, it'll pass with both Liberal and Conservative votes.

Let me ask you a question.

If US and Japan pass the TPP - would you vote yes or no to it?

Assuming we cannot re-negotiate better terms, which is the goal of the Liberal government after a public debate period.

And if you vote no, how would you offset our new large trade deficit due to not being part of the TPP?

 

[Irminsul]

Quintupling the percentage of a party does still seem insane to me though, especially for a model country like Canada.

I would say "blame FPTP", at least to a certain degree. This voting system tends to amplify small(er) changes in the popular vote. If you look at that figure, the Liberals doubled, which is still much. But again, that's also due to the voting system (because there are incentives to vote in a particular way).

 

[Tabris]

Oh, I see. Looks like Canadians have less party-loyalty than most countries and volatility is the norm, instead of the exception like I thought.

The party differences between the Liberals and NDP are pretty marginal right now.

So what happened is the conservatives lost 5-10% of the popular vote to the Liberals and the NDP lost 20% of the popular vote to the Liberals. A lot of the swing between the NDP to Liberals was for the #stopharper movement.

Most people I know would be fine with either a Liberal or NDP government as they like and dislike policy and platform items from each, and just picked the one they believed would beat Harper.

 

[firehawk12]

Let me ask you a question.

If US and Japan pass the TPP - would you vote yes or no to it?

Assuming we cannot re-negotiate better terms, which is the goal of the Liberal government after a public debate period.

And if you vote no, how would you offset our new large trade deficit due to not being part of the TPP?

I'm more worried about giving up many rights that we haven't talked about because no one really cares about copyright laws.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1125380&highlight=tpp+sopa

But we're about to enter a trade agreement where one of the provisions makes it illegal to jailbreak your iPhone. I really think that's bullshit, but maybe I'm just in the minority there.

This is a wonderful one too - Criminalize whistleblowing by extending trade secrets laws without any mandatory exemptions for whistleblowers or investigative journalists. (QQ.H.8)

Oh, I see. Looks like Canadians have less party-loyalty than most countries and volatility is the norm, instead of the exception like I thought.

There is a sense of opportunistic voting, but each party definitely has a core constituency that consistently votes for that party. In the same way that California and New York will always vote for a Democrat for President for example.

 

[Popstar]

Oh, I see. Looks like Canadians have less party-loyalty than most countries and volatility is the norm, instead of the exception like I thought.

The Liberals had several poor leaders in a row. Bleeding more support with each one. Now that they have a decent leader a lot of that support has come back.

The Conservatives may find themselves in a similar situation.

 

[Firestorm]

I'm more worried about giving up many rights that we haven't talked about because no one really cares about copyright laws.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1125380&highlight=tpp+sopa

But we're about to enter a trade agreement where one of the provisions makes it illegal to jailbreak your iPhone. I really think that's bullshit, but maybe I'm just in the minority there.

This is a wonderful one too - Criminalize whistleblowing by extending trade secrets laws without any mandatory exemptions for whistleblowers or investigative journalists. (QQ.H.8)

You're not, but to be honest, I'm just so tired of fighting. Every time it feels like we stop these shitty bills and agreements we know it's just delaying it. It's brought back again and again and again.

 

[massivekettle]

Fair and balanced article from CBC on Harper (which surprised me, given CBC's obvious bias).

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-harper-political-obit-1.3273677

 

[firehawk12]

You're not, but I'll be honest. I'm so tired of fighting. Every time it feels like we stop something we know it's just delaying it. It's brought back again and again and again.

The US wants to make SOPA the law in the entire world, and we're just accepting it because we have no other choice.
Forget net neutrality - the Internet of the future will be controlled by American conglomerates who are able to tell other countries what to do via these trade deals.

 

[Tabris]

I'm more worried about giving up many rights that we haven't talked about because no one really cares about copyright laws.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1125380&highlight=tpp+sopa

But we're about to enter a trade agreement where one of the provisions makes it illegal to jailbreak your iPhone. I really think that's bullshit, but maybe I'm just in the minority there.

This is a wonderful one too - Criminalize whistleblowing by extending trade secrets laws without any mandatory exemptions for whistleblowers or investigative journalists. (QQ.H.8)


There is a sense of opportunistic voting, but each party definitely has a core constituency that consistently votes for that party. In the same way that California and New York will always vote for a Democrat for President for example.

Yes, and I agree with all of that being an issue. But you didn't answer my question (because it's not an easy question and blanket yes or no statements show poor understanding of the realities - thus why I wasn't impressed with Mulcair's original blanket no before he said he would try to renegotiate instead).

If Japan and US pass the TPP - would you vote yes or no.

And if no, how would you offset the large trade deficit not participating in the TPP (if US and Japan are) would cause?

 

[firehawk12]

Yes, and I agree with all of that. But you didn't answer my question.

If Japan and US pass the TPP - would you vote yes or no.

And if no, how would you offset the large trade deficit not participating in the TPP (if US and Japan are) would cause?

Do I give up my digital rights so that Honda and Toyota can flood the Canadian market with more Japanese cars?

And in a year since the Korean free trade deal, Canada has had a hundred million dollar trade deficit - mostly because they banned our beef due to mad cow or some other disease. So, it's not like trade deals are a magic bullet.

But my honest answer is I don't know. I just know as an individual, I am losing a lot of rights because of this trade deal and no one seems to care.

 

[Tabris]

Why do you think no one cares?

Both Mulcair and Trudeau said they want to review it further and discuss it in public debates. They care. It was a platform item for both.

But as you said, you don't know the answer. Because it's not an easy question. The reality is for economic reasons we may be forced to agree to the deal. If you want to get TPP stopped, it's not Canadians you need to convince, it's Americans and unfortunately they don't have the power to make a change before it gets agreed upon because their election is in a year.

That's why a leader who looks at everything is important and doesn't take decisions just on principle but understands realities of the global market. You have to balance your principles with that.

Do I give up my digital rights so that Honda and Toyota can flood the Canadian market with more Japanese cars?

This may just be sarcasm, but if not, it shows your mis-understanding on the economic realities of this agreement. It has far reaching impact into so many different industries and commodities.

 

[firehawk12]

I assume the TPP as negotiated is an all or nothing deal and that you can't just pick and choose what to agree to. And I'm sure enough business interests exist that the TPP will go through without much resistance because that's just how the world works.

I'll pull a maharg and say I'll eat a hat if a Liberal government rejects the TPP.
(Let's face it, I'm sure an NDP government would have let it go through as well. I also assume the Conservative plan to pay off the dairy and auto sectors is still in place under a new Liberal government too).

 

[lupinko]

The Liberals had several poor leaders in a row. Bleeding more support with each one. Now that they have a decent leader a lot of that support has come back.

The Conservatives may find themselves in a similar situation.

Yeah, Chrétien won three straight majority governments, then Paul Martin forced him out, under Martin the LPC dipped to a Minority Government, then to the official opposition, and two elections later reduced to third party status due to more infighting (Dion supporters and Ignatieff supporters).

Dion sought a coalition government with the NDP and Bloc in 2008 and was defeated, Ignatieff took over for 2011 and was largely opposed to that notion, but he then led to the near collapse of the LPC in 2011. Which resulted in Harper getting a third term AND a majority, and Layton's NDP becoming the official opposition.

Fast forward to now.

 

[Tabris]

It's a treaty that has gone through the first pass of negotiations. Each individual items can be re-negotiated as each party is taking it to it's government body. You'll have situations from all side like:

"I can't get this passed unless we refine this section to include this agreement"
"Well for that to happen, we would need this consideration"
"Well that won't work for us unless we change the quota here"
"Does that work for all parties"
Etc, etc.

And yes, reality is all 3 governments will have been forced into agreeing with the TPP in some format if the US and Japan agree to it in some format.

Mulcair realized that after making his initial no statement. It's the initial no statement that scared me. Because I don't know how we would offset the trade deficit cost of not participating in the TPP unless we were able to enter into a crazy exclusive agreement with China. EU would have been an option except they won't be as they are creating a similar agreement under the TTIP.

 

[firehawk12]

If that's the case, then why did Harper have to agree to anything at all? They could have just waited until after the election to decide anything.

Well, other than the publicity of announcing a splashy trade deal during a campaign I suppose.