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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
mo60 said:
Anything is possible. Nothing is guranteed for that party at this point.
Click to expand...
I mean, unless the next leader is from Quebec and says "I HATE THE WEST AND THEY SHOULD GO TO HELL" there's no way they lose their base. Perhaps they lose the non-GTA seats in Ontario or the non-Montreal Area seats... but I highly doubt it.

It would basically take another Reform/PC split to cause the CPC is lose their core support.
 
Y

You Are Viewtiful

Member
Holy crap, 67.6% turnout so far! That has to be the highest since the 80s right?

Can't wait to see the age breakdown in the coming days. Young people voting would be a permanent game changer. At least one good thing came out of Harper's administration LOL.

Edit: highest since 1993, which had 70%. The turnout in 1988 was 64% though.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
firehawk12 said:
I mean, unless the next leader is from Quebec and says "I HATE THE WEST AND THEY SHOULD GO TO HELL" there's no way they lose their base. Perhaps they lose the non-GTA seats in Ontario or the non-Montreal Area seats... but I highly doubt it.

It would basically take another Reform/PC split to cause the CPC is lose their core support.
Click to expand...

Ahem, Jean Charest is a likely candidate for the leadership.
 
M

mo60

Member
firehawk12 said:
I mean, unless the next leader is from Quebec and says "I HATE THE WEST AND THEY SHOULD GO TO HELL" there's no way they lose their base. Perhaps they lose the non-GTA seats in Ontario or the non-Montreal Area seats... but I highly doubt it.

It would basically take another Reform/PC split to cause the CPC is lose their core support.
Click to expand...

They are still a bit above their base even though it looks likely they will end up with the same amount of seats as the 2004 election.Like I said anything is possible. The key thing that will determine if they stay at thier base is what they do in the next few years or so. I do expect the conservatives to go through a few years or a decade of problems and lose more seats in the process until they recover. It may be awhile before they get another majority.
 
T

TUSR

Banned
Sibylus said:
It was not something I could have dreamed happening. Kelowna representing more than just its crotchety old white folk, madness!
crazy.gif
Click to expand...

we have around ~89000 eligible voters

turn out was 64170
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
mo60 said:
Does anyone know the seat count in Ontario?
Click to expand...
Looks like 80 Liberal, 33 Conservative and 8 NDP.

Liberals lead by 579 votes in Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon over the Tories.
NDP leads by 334 votes in Burnaby South over the Liberals.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
maharg said:
Ahem, Jean Charest is a likely candidate for the leadership.
Click to expand...

If Charest is the next leader, then they really are suicidal. :p

mo60 said:
They are still a bit above their base even though it looks likely they will end up with the same amount of seats as the 2004 election.Like I said anything is possible. The key thing that will determine if they stay at thier base is what they do in the next few years or so. I do expect the conservatives to go through a few years or a decade of problems and lose more seats in the process until they recover. It may be awhile before they get another majority.
Click to expand...
I'm just saying that there's no where for them to lose their seats, unless the party for some odd reason chooses to alienate the west. Which I think is impossible.
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Firestorm said:
The two undecided ridings seem to be Richmond-Centre and Burnaby South?
Click to expand...
Richmond Centre is done. Went to the Tories.

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon is the other site still being deliberated.
Liberal lead is now at 614 votes with 34 polls still being counted.

Potential Gretzky memers need to be rooting fully for Jati Sidhu to hold.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
What the two ridings that still haven't been called?

UberTag said:
Richmond Centre is done. Went to the Tories.

Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon is the other site still being deliberated.
Liberal lead is now at 614 votes with 34 polls still being counted.

Potential Gretzky memers need to be rooting fully for Jati Sidhu to hold.
Click to expand...


oh there it is
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
firehawk12 said:
If Charest is the next leader, then they really are suicidal. :p


I'm just saying that there's no where for them to lose their seats, unless the party for some odd reason chooses to alienate the west. Which I think is impossible.
Click to expand...
I think the Conservatives are in a tough spot right now. There's no clear successor to pick up where Harper left off, not that he left them off in a good spot. I think the party needs a new direction and PC is a good option, imo.

Right now, they are at risk of having their support eroded and chipped away at by the Liberals while they sort things out. They are definitely in trouble.
Indrid Cold said:
O.O wow. Hope the younger gens will stick around and keep voting.
Click to expand...

With a Liberal majority, now is the perfect opportunity to make voting easier (mandatory voting, online voting, etc.). I believe I heard that some of those things might be in their platform.
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Looks like we're done. All hail the powers of Gretzky! He foretold the Tories final seat count.
Let's celebrate with our new prime minister!

150b3c07-b5bb-486b-b29e-11eea233f90e.jpg
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
TUSR said:
we have around ~89000 eligible voters

turn out was 64170
Click to expand...
Indrid Cold said:
O.O wow. Hope the younger gens will stick around and keep voting.
Click to expand...
Concords with what I've been suspecting. All the doctors and counsellors I've seen the past few years have told me how Kelowna's white, old, and conservative landscape is becoming a lot more diverse in the present. I saw a lot of young people voting. These are all good signs I feel.
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
Alright, my [second] last post of the night in point form and then bed:

- No more Harper yay!
- I'm represented by non-conservatives at all levels of government for the first time in my life yay!
- NDP have managed to eke out their second best performance in terms of ridings in their history, which is still a major achievement for them. The fact that they did this with a lower vote % is a testament to the fact that they've built up some baseline efficiency even in the face of a cataclysmic campaign failure.
- I hope Trudeau realizes that he's pulled in a lot of swing voters from the NDP, and that they may not be willing to give him a second chance if he tacks too far right. He also pulled in a lot of PR supporters, and I hope he lives up to his promises there.
- I'm hopeful about him doing so, but my expectations are low.
- This marks the third election in a row where Quebec has turfed their previous winner, and if they hadn't done so Trudeau wouldn't have a majority right now. Will they do it again next time? Who the fuck knows. Quebec has decided to be a magic 8 ball I guess.
- The CPC only gained two seats out of adding six to Alberta. Not quite as good as I hoped, but it makes me happy. So many people expected them to take them all as a given.
- As usual, Ontario really decided this election, and the NDP's inability to get traction there is their biggest barrier to ever forming power so long as we use FPTP. Everywhere else in the country has shown a willingness to vote for them, and at the beginning of this campaign Ontario shifting towards the NDP could have completely changed the entire election's narrative, but there is clear hesitation there. I'll never cease to be surprised that they instead elect the party Rae calls home now.
 
W

Walpurgis

Banned
Where is Trudeau on C-51? I remember him saying that it was a mistake to vote for it and that he only did so because he wanted to get Conservative voters or didn't want to look "not ready". Now that he has a majority, he can do whatever the hell he wants. But what does he want?
 
M

maharg

idspispopd
firehawk12 said:
If Charest is the next leader, then they really are suicidal. :p


I'm just saying that there's no where for them to lose their seats, unless the party for some odd reason chooses to alienate the west. Which I think is impossible.
Click to expand...

As the Liberals, the NDP, and the Conservatives have *all* proven in their turn, there are *always* places to lose seats.
 
T

Tabris

Member
Walpurgis said:
Where is Trudeau on C-51? I remember him saying that it was a mistake to vote for it and that he only did so because he wanted to get Conservative voters or didn't want to look "not ready". Now that he has a majority, he can do whatever the hell he wants. But what does he want?
Click to expand...

My guess is he will review and adjust it to limit it's power, instead of outright appeal it.

He takes a moderate / centrist approach on the privacy to "security" scale.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Walpurgis said:
I think the Conservatives are in a tough spot right now. There's no clear successor to pick up where Harper left off, not that he left them off in a good spot. I think the party needs a new direction and PC is a good option, imo.

Right now, they are at risk of having their support eroded and chipped away at by the Liberals while they sort things out. They are definitely in trouble.
Click to expand...
The CPC as we know it is still the party of the West first, so I think they lose more than they gain if they choose a leader from Quebec or even from Ontario. Although maybe they unite behind any leader because of "Anyone but Trudeau" rhetoric in the next election.

All the soft Conservatives are already gone and most of the ridings they have are those hard Conservative seats that are also fairly entrenched in their ways (niqab niqab niqab). Certainly that's where their Quebec seats came from.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
maharg said:
As the Liberals, the NDP, and the Conservatives have *all* proven in their turn, there are *always* places to lose seats.
Click to expand...
I mean, I hypothetically guessed that the NDP could blow up shortly after the last election because the Quebec thing was a pure protest vote. Right now the Liberals have the advantage of being the "natural governing party", so they can take some votes away from the CPC and also win back all those "borrowed votes" that Layton gained in 2008 and 2011. I think what we've seen now is most of the movement that we'll see in the foreseeable future.

Like I don't see any possible reality where the CPC wins seats in Toronto, for example. I think we can just accept that as a given for the purposes of fruitful speculation.
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
maharg said:
- This marks the third election in a row where Quebec has turfed their previous winner, and if they hadn't done so Trudeau wouldn't have a majority right now. Will they do it again next time? Who the fuck knows. Quebec has decided to be a magic 8 ball I guess.
Click to expand...
That's an astute analogy. Quebecers are a notoriously fickle lot.
If they played Survivor, they'd be Abi-Maria.

maharg said:
- As usual, Ontario really decided this election, and the NDP's inability to get traction there is their biggest barrier to ever forming power so long as we use FPTP. Everywhere else in the country has shown a willingness to vote for them, and at the beginning of this campaign Ontario shifting towards the NDP could have completely changed the entire election's narrative, but there is clear hesitation there. I'll never cease to be surprised that they instead elect the party Rae calls home now.
Click to expand...
It is rather amusing. When Ontarians think of the NDP, they shudder and think of their iconic NDP tax and spend premier.
They then vow to never vote for the NDP again in any level of government.

All the while their nemesis is trolling the NDP on Twitter, yucking it up with his Liberal cronies and prepping to move to New York City to take on his new UN ambassador gig that's somehow OWED to him.
 
L

lsslave

Jew Gamer
firehawk12 said:
I mean, I hypothetically guessed that the NDP could blow up shortly after the last election because the Quebec thing was a pure protest vote. Right now the Liberals have the advantage of being the "natural governing party", so they can take some votes away from the CPC and also win back all those "borrowed votes" that Layton gained in 2008 and 2011. I think what we've seen now is most of the movement that we'll see in the foreseeable future.

Like I don't see any possible reality where the CPC wins seats in Toronto, for example. I think we can just accept that as a given for the purposes of fruitful speculation.
Click to expand...

The NDP blew up because Layton was someone people believed in. The party less so. And this just showed it.

I'm a die hard Liberal and even I liked Layton.
 
I

Indrid Cold

Unconfirmed Member
Sibylus said:
Concords with what I've been suspecting. All the doctors and counsellors I've seen the past few years have told me how Kelowna's white, old, and conservative landscape is becoming a lot more diverse in the present. I saw a lot of young people voting. These are all good signs I feel.
Click to expand...
Yeah there's plenty of younger cliques here just none of them ever voted. It's weird how we pretend to be San Francisco north yet we vote like the bible belt. Hope we start getting some change economically/socially etc Some sustainability.
 
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