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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
- Start date
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UberTag
Member
If anything I don't think we've been nearly harsh enough on Saskatchewan.
I blame Corner Gas and my affection for the Roughriders.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I'm betting on AV. It's the easy way to say you've "changed" the system without actually changing it.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
It's not like Ontario personally defeated PR; this election was about way more than that. And shouldn't you also be angry at the other 100 seats that went Liberal, just like you should've been angry at the other 100 seats that went Conservative last time?
It's certainly better than AV lol. If AV happens, I will only put a 1 beside NDP every election and leave it at that. Liberals should not be rewarded for this terrible voting system.
We'd never have a Conservative government ever again with AV.
I dunno man. There's a chance for enough people to 1) Green 2) Liberal or 1) NDP 2) Liberal for the Liberals to get eliminated first round.
Reposting this. I need to know.
That'll be easy enough to figure out. Just take the long-form census data and... oh, right...
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Pipe dream.
Conservatives win a lot of seats by more than 50%, and the "close" ridings they won, they won usually with 40-45%. Only takes a few rogue NDPers/Liberals/Greens (maybe 20% of them) to hand Conservatives a victory in any riding.
Conservative vote is extremely efficient, even under AV.
Anyway, anyone have another link to that press conference? That CBC video is not loading. >_<
Trudeau victory welcomed by foreign leaders, as Liberal win trends worldwide
Everyone seems happy, especially Mexico.
Everyone seems happy, especially Mexico.
Happy days.
It's not like Ontario personally defeated PR; this election was about way more than that. And shouldn't you also be angry at the other 100 seats that went Liberal, just like you should've been angry at the other 100 seats that went Conservative last time?
Eh. My feelings on both situations are a lot more complicated than either of these reductions, but the common theme is that Ontario seems to have a ceiling for the NDP, even when the NDP looks like the way to go to get Harper out. In either election, if Ontario had gotten behind the NDP they probably would have won.
The truth is it's Quebec that I'm most frustrated with right now, though, because a minority was my preferred outcome and Quebec falling for the Niqab bullshit brought us a bunch of new CPC, Bloc, and Liberal seats that could have made a minority a reality.
And to me all other problems are basically consequences of an unrepresentative democracy. We need more minority voices in parliament and hoping for the good will of leaders signing off on representative slates isn't enough to make that happen.
We absolutely would have CPC governments again, and we'd have CPC false majorities again too. AV does not create proportionate results, it just makes the compromises of strategic voting happen at the ballot box.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I remember Canada barred refugee claims from Mexico ages ago. I wonder if that's still in place.
(It was one of four countries that they banned... Including a couple from Eastern Europe IIRC).
I'm sure Justin will listen to Elizabeth May and the 40 NDP MPs. He's the next Canadian Jesus after all.
Agreed. Though the irony of Harper's bullshit leading to a Liberal majority is delicious, I'm really annoyed that we lost out on a minority government because of xenophobes in Quebec.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
It's the ghost of Bob Rae. I wasn't sentient while he was Premier, but a lot of people born before 1980 really hate him and the NDP because of what happened in 1990-1995. I guess, it's kind of like how Millennials in the US will probably never vote Republican for as long as they live, even in 2050, all because of Dubya.
It will be impossible for the current Reformacons to be a part of government under MMP. Now tell me what situation you prefer
Nope. They would actually have a bit of an advantage, if anything, since their voters are the least likely to have second choices, which deprive other parties of votes in further rounds. A lot of Liberals will still put CPC as second choice over NDP, especially in (as discussed above sort of) Ontario, so the CPC would get boosted in further rounds while Green and NDP would fall off easily. The same would happen with a lot of NDP voters putting CPC in second because of irrational NEP hatred in the west, too.
This is the fundamental point: AV does not eliminate strategic voting, and it does not produce proportional or representative results. It fails miserably at being an improvement over FPTP in that it literally enshrines the worst things about FPTP into the process itself. It makes the whole thing an extra complicated game when what we should be working towards is quite simple: Making every voice heard.
That's not cool.
After all is said and done, what a night it had been! The NDP loss isn't as bad to me now, considering the Liberals in 2011 and heck, even the Conservatives lost MORE seats than the NDP this election. The concession speeches IMO were all great. Mulcair almost made me cry, felt like giving him a hug or something
I also thought, despite his bad rep, Harper was respectful in his speech and honorably stepped down as leader of the CPC.
That's the most amount of respect I have managed to muster for him ever, so its got to mean something. Its weird, after all the (admittedly toxic) hate we had harbored towards him, I don't think I actually hate him at all now. I think Mulcair said it best that while he does not agree with his politics and policies, he thanks him for his service to Canada.
I'm glad Mulcair is staying on as leader, I think the in-and-out style Leadership of the LPC should be avoided.
Good luck to our new Prime Minister though, and I hope he can make Canada whole again.
I'm happy Mulcair is staying still also. I would have been pissed if he left. He should help rebuild the NDP and provide a challenge to the Liberals in the next five years.
Yeah, I'm glad to have someone in the house to call Trudeau out on any BS. I can't think of any person better than Mulcair for that.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
It's clear Mulcair is not the answer. And having lost all the other star caucus members, I don't even know who is left that would even make a good alternative.
Simon Belmont
Banned
I honestly can't believe Mulcair is staying on considering what a disaster that was.
There's no magical efficiency to the Conservative vote.
2011 - NDP got 30.6% of the vote - won 103 out of 308 seats (33% of seats)
2015 - Conservatives got 31.9 % of the vote - won 99 out of 338 seats (29% of seats)
Their vote actually looks pretty inefficient in comparison. It just varies from election to election.
If it wasn't for the Bloc and the Niqab, I have no doubt the NDP would have been official opposition. The Campaign was a sham, sure, but I think they could have retained a respectable total of 70-80 seats if not for those two things.
Is this available anywhere online so I can watch? Missed out on watching when it was happening. All I can find are small clips.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Their vote is way more efficient compared to the Liberals, which is who they'd be competing with mostly.
And I'd like to add, Conservatives got 45% of the vote in Ontario in 2011. Just think about that when you think them getting the most votes is out of the question. No one can win with just Quebec and the Atlantic, even with AV.
He's only staying on until they pick a new leader right? I really want Nathan Cullen to give it a shot.
Wasn't really Mulcair's fault honestly. It's the stupid NDP strategists who keep trying to run centrist campaigns that keep losing.
I don't blame the election loss on Mulcair completely. I blame it partly on him and his campaign strategists and advisors and the rest on him. It's a pretty horrible idea for him to leave right now since they lost a lot of long time MP's and the NDP needs to rebuild. Doing what the liberals did after they lost the 2006 election, the 2008 election and even the 2011 election won't help them much and may make things worse for them.
Simon Belmont
Banned
Three things - their campaign was awful. There were no big ideas for people to glom on to. If they had run a better campaign the Niqab wouldn't have been an issue.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
And as mentioned before, a lot of people's second choice is either CPC or Liberal anyway, so guess who benefits in that situation?
And Mulcair is basically the anti-Layton in terms of being an inspiring, charismatic figurehead.
In a way, it's like going from 2008 Obama to 2016 Clinton.
(Or 2008 Obama to 2009 Obama. lol)
What about Cullen?
I've been trying to figure out how that's going to work, particularly since there's also been some talk of him wanting a smaller cabinet (Gagnier gave a figure of around 25, which basically corresponds to the core ministries without any of the "minister of state" positions) Looking into it, I've concluded that he's going to have to give on the 'small cabinet' thing if he's going to keep the gender-balance matter.
To explain, here's a list of the first tier of men you would expect to see in Cabinet:
Men in Cabinet (tier 1)
1. Justin Trudeau (QC) - unless it's a very unconventional cabinet; Trudeau may also not be counting himself in this tally.
2. Ralph Goodale (SK)
3. Stephane Dion (QC)
4. Marc Garneau (QC)
5. Dominic LeBlanc (NB)
6. Scott Brison (NS)
7. Sean Casey/Wayne Easter (PE)
8. Jim Carr/Kevin Lamoureux (MB)
9. Andrew Leslie (ON)
10. Bill Blair (ON)
11. John McCallum (ON)
12. Amarjeet Sohi/Randy Boissonnault (AB)
13. Darshan Kang/Kent Hehr (AB) - and this is assuming Alberta gets only two ministers.
Women in Cabinet (tier 1)
1. Chrystia Freeland (ON)
2. Jody Wilson-Raybould (BC)
3. Joyce Murray (BC)
4. Kirsty Duncan (ON)
5. Carolyn Bennett (ON)
6. Melanie Joly (QC)
7. Yvonne Jones/Judy Foote (NL)
Okay, with those twenty ministers (again, counting Trudeau himself), you've:
- Given individual ministries to the six provinces that can't typically expect more than one in a small cabinet (NL, NS, NB, PE, MB, SK).
- Given Ontario six ministers already (5 from GTA, 1 from Ottawa).
- Given Quebec four ministers (all from Montreal proper).
- Given Alberta & BC two ministers each.
The core ministries of the cabinet run to 27, assuming both that the chief whip is a minister (not necessarily the case) and that there's a standalone Deputy PM (there isn't in the Harper government, but it was not unheard of before). So the cabinet could range from 25-27. Assume 27, for the sake of argument. That means there's seven spots left. In order to equalize the numbers, you need six more women:
Women in Cabinet (tier 2)
8. ?
9. ?
10. ?
11. ?
12. ?
13. ?
The caucus certainly doesn't lack for other female MPs, but he'll also have to factor in geography (Ontario MPs from elsewhere than Toronto proper, especially), of course talent, and there's also race to factor in (the group that I've outlined above is pretty white, on the whole, with potentially two Indo-Canadian men and two First Nations women).
And then after all that there's one spot left over, which would probably have to be used for one of the many men not included yet (e.g., Bill Morneau, Harjit Sajjan).
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I guess so. I don't particularly remember any of his appearances/speeches, so I don't know if that's a good sign or a bad sign.
Following up on my above comment, consider all the factors I've already listed and then match names to the following jobs:
1. Deputy Prime Minister
2. Minister of Finance
3. Minister of Foreign Affairs
4. Minister of Justice and Attorney General
5. Minister of National Defence
6. Minister of Health
7. Minister of Industry
8. Minister of Agriculture
9. Minister of Transport
10. Minister of Public Works and Government Services
11. President of the Treasury Board
12. Minister for International Cooperation
13. Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs & President of the Queen’s Privy Council for Canada
14. Minister of the Environment
15. Minister of Fisheries and Oceans
16. Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
17. Minister of International Trade
18. Minister of National Revenue
19. Minister of Canadian Heritage
20. Minister of Natural Resources
21. Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
22. Minister of Labour
23. Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development
24. Minister of Veterans Affairs
25. Minister of Aboriginal and Northern Affairs
26. Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
27. Chief Government Whip
1. Deputy Prime Minister
2. Minister of Finance
3. Minister of Foreign Affairs
4. Minister of Justice and Attorney General
5. Minister of National Defence
6. Minister of Health
7. Minister of Industry
8. Minister of Agriculture
9. Minister of Transport
10. Minister of Public Works and Government Services
11. President of the Treasury Board
12. Minister for International Cooperation
13. Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs & President of the Queen’s Privy Council for Canada
14. Minister of the Environment
15. Minister of Fisheries and Oceans
16. Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
17. Minister of International Trade
18. Minister of National Revenue
19. Minister of Canadian Heritage
20. Minister of Natural Resources
21. Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
22. Minister of Labour
23. Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development
24. Minister of Veterans Affairs
25. Minister of Aboriginal and Northern Affairs
26. Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
27. Chief Government Whip
Exactly, the NDP should have been the ones running with the Liberals platform/slogan of "real change", and galvanizing the young voters.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
I think you're forgetting some pretty important ones like Minister of Aboriginal Affairs.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
No one voted Liberal because of their slogan, come on.
The NDP slogan was "It's time for a change" (or something), Liberal slogan was "Real change".
NDP was too centrist. This is a recurring problem for them.
Huh, you're right. I must have missed that one when copying out the list.
There are also several ministerial titles that, when economy is called for, are typically given as adjuncts to some other title (e.g., when Peter MacKay was Foreign Minister he was also, for a while, the minister for ACOA):
28. Minister for La Francophonie
29. Minister of the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec
30. Minister of the Canadian Northern Economic Development Agency
31. Minister for the Status of Women
32. Minister for Democratic Reform
33. Minister for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency
34. Minister of Western Economic Diversification
PumpkinSpice
Banned
ACOA frequently gets shoved a secondary duty, so expect LeBlanc to get that in addition to whatever his main post is going to be.
I don't think 26 is unreasonable given Harper's current cabinet if you just cut out the "Minister of State" roles.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
He can have as big or as small a cabinet as he wants. It's completely arbitrary. lol
I think Harper cut his down because back then the idea of a large cabinet represented wasteful government spending.
I think Harper cut his down because back then the idea of a large cabinet represented wasteful government spending.
Does Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C. really have to share one "Economic Diversification" minister? And Quebec gets its own?
I don't think it's unreasonable to cut out the "ministers of state" if you're looking to decrease cabinet size. My point is simply that it's going to be difficult to shrink the size of the cabinet that much while also maintaining gender equality and including all the men he probably needs/wants to include.
Yea. I feel he's just too old to get the young vote.
CitizenVectron
Member
Goodale has had finance before so he might get it again...maybe. Agriculture is also commonly given to someone from AB/SK/MB. Personally (for selfish reasons) I hope Goodale becomes Health Minister as his office is right next door to mine (as in we know his receptionist, share the same bathroom stalls, etc, lol). My gf has MS and Health Canada sucks ass at approving certain really good drugs for early treatment. Instead, they insist you try and fail less effective drugs first before using the ones that we know work (but are more expensive). But the thing about MS is that you can't reverse the damage. So if it takes 5 years to get on the good drugs, that's 5 years of damage to the brain/body that you can't undo, and only 20-40% of people respond to the cheap drugs.
It's really unfortunate, and the rest of the world is moving toward using the best drugs first, but Canada refuses. So I hope he gets that portfolio so I can lobby him in person directly.
It's really unfortunate, and the rest of the world is moving toward using the best drugs first, but Canada refuses. So I hope he gets that portfolio so I can lobby him in person directly.
I'm not saying they did. I'm saying the Liberals looked like the exciting left wing party the young people could vote for to beat the Conservatives. Trudeau did a much better job getting their message across with passion, while the NDP just kind of stood around and said, "yeah, Harper needs to go".
The Last Emperor
Member
Don't forgot minister of sport
Which that useless bum Tim Uppal had for years
Which that useless bum Tim Uppal had for years
Simon Belmont
Banned
They missed a huge opportunity with marijuana. It's a concrete, money making policy that young people are excited about. They just assumed people would vote for them without giving them too many exciting reasons to.
What in god's name? Isn't this human testing? Or Health Canada just doesn't want to pay until it's too late? Is this even legal? Wtf?
Black Republican
Member
I missed the strategy but how did left leaning voters decide to vote liberal over ndp? Was Justin just a better leader?
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Okay, I know I was supposed to be gone, but I can't help myself.
Please explain this logic to me, because it doesn't make any sense. Liberal numbers were huge in Quebec. Quebec massively voting for the liberal party and giving them a majority is... because of xenophobes and the niqab circus? Huh???
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