Health will be Carolyn Bennett.
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Health will be Carolyn Bennett.
NDP got assassinated in Quebec by the niqab thing. Their Quebec base crumbled beneath them and they cratered in the polls. The rest of Canada saw where the wind was blowing and voted accordingly.
The problem is, many Quebeckers switched their vote based on a single, xenophobic issue.Okay, I know I was supposed to be gone, but I can't help myself.
Please explain this logic to me, because it doesn't make any sense. Liberal numbers were huge in Quebec. Quebec massively voting for the liberal party and giving them a majority is... because of xenophobes and the niqab circus? Huh???
Buba Big Guns
Banned
NDP did a shit job on defending their stance on the niqab. Quebec voters dipped the NDP and moved to other parties, which rallied most progressive voters across the country to support the Liberals instead for change. Also Trudeau did a fantastic job in marketing himself as the agent of change. He really said all the right things and his campaign promises were very progressive.
CitizenVectron
Member
There are basically 2 or 3 classes of drugs with MS. The "first line" treatment is cheaper generally, and are daily injections or pills. They work for some people, but only slow relapses, not long-term damage or disability (they are no neuroprotective)
The second line are some injections and also daily pills. These work better at slowing relapses, but generally still do not prevent long-term disability (end up in wheelchair, no energy, muscle spasms, etc).
If you fail both of these classes, you get access to third line, which are the magic ones. These include Lemtrada and Tysabri. Lemtrada is an infusion drug (similar to chemo) that you only get twice and then works for years or decades. Some people have gone 12 years with no further disability or progress in the disease, effectively curing it (for some). The funny thing is, Lemtrada is actually cheap since you only need it once, not forever. But there are higher risks with the better drugs. Tysabri kills something like .6-1% of those who take it. Lemtrada hasn't killed many, but can sometimes cause thyroid problems (which can be fixed/dealt with, but still aren't great). But they are amazingly effective, slowing down progress of the disease and reducing relapses by 5-10x sometimes.
Next year (or early 2017) a new drug is expected to be approved, called Ocrelizumab. It's just as good as Tysabri or Lemtrada perhaps, but with almost no risks. But there's a good chance Health Canada will also put it as a second or third line treatment, which is criminal. Why not spend the money and prevent further damage? With Lemtrada, the person often doesn't even need any treatment afterwards for 5-10 years...that's huge money saved! And all the experts agree that patients who are just diagnosed (my gf is 25) should be treated aggressively early on. Coincidentally we had one of the biggest MS experts in the world in Regina yesterday afternoon and we went and met him and talked with him, and he was shocked at our laws (he is from the UK where it's easier to get better drugs). He advised we speak to our MPs or MLAs.
The only other alternative is to go private, but to do a Lemtrada infusion could be anywhere from $60,000 to $100,000, money we don't have. There are apparently some doctors in Toronto that have bent the rules and got it done for early patients, but we don't know any of them. We could try fundraising...but $100,000 is a lot, I don't think we could ever get that much.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
This is a bit confusing for me. The NDP supported the niqab. The Liberals, too. The Conservatives didn't. If that issue is what killed NDP momentum in Quebec, why doesn't Quebec have more blue seats?
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/656585825132650497
#BREAKING Canada withdrawing fighter jets from Iraq, Syria, Trudeau tells Obama
Trudeau's first big move. Wow.
#BREAKING Canada withdrawing fighter jets from Iraq, Syria, Trudeau tells Obama
Trudeau's first big move. Wow.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
...and that's why the Liberals numbers were massive here? I seriously don't follow. I think the Liberal party was clearly against the niqab ban.
dragonfart28
Banned
So good
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Is this an approval issue or a money issue? If it's the latter, I can imagine some bureaucrat being told they need to find ways to save money and this is what they came up with.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Actually, I just checked, and the Conservative vote didn't budge at all in Quebec this election (16.5% in 2011, 16.7% in 2015). The Bloc Quebecois vote actually went down (23.4% to 19.5%).
What happened was that Quebec, just like the rest of the country, rode the Liberal wave, and this split the vote in a lot of ridings where the NDP dominated, allowing Conservatives and Bloc to come out ahead.
That's FPTP for ya, fellas.
OMG, I love him already. This is huge. Thread worthy! Anyone gonna make it?
I am elated, I would say it's thread worthy
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
dragonfart28
Banned
The niqab was the tie breaker that lead to the election result.
Once NDP started to decline in Quebec, the rest of Canada chose the Liberals. The division from that wedge only worked in Quebec and by time the NDP stabilized there it was too late.
By and large Canadians should be thanking Harper for this gift to Trudeau.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Eh. I (foolishly) thought the huge liberal numbers would stop this ridiculous narrative that the entirety of Quebec is composed hateful, racist monsters, but it's an ever-moving goalpost.
Can't want to hear the justification about how voting liberal still somehow meant that everybody was doing it out of racism.
It has more CPC and BQ than last election. But it's just 10 more, not as much as I expected.
You're right. Liberals took most of them. That's weird because it was definitely the niqab that killed the NDP. I wonder why voters ran into the arms of the Liberals.
I'm pretty sure the NDP collapse in Quebec preceeded the Liberal rise in Ontario. It also did initially coincide with a rise for the Bloc and CPC in the polls (they were both lower than 2011 before that, I believe).
Enter the Dragon Punch
Banned
because, despite his platform being great, muclair is a terrible campaigner
plus most people figured that if they were going to vote left they might as well go trudeau. if jack was still around, NDP would be in the liberals position right now imo
Sohi from Edmonton-Millwoods will probably be a cabinet minister for something related to infrastructure. He was pretty instrumental in getting a lot of projects in Edmonton off the ground according to the CBC.
I think that's it. It was definitely a hot issue a month ago and it killed the NDP. When people calmed down and realised that it was stupid, the Liberals were leading and they went Liberal. That makes sense.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
Or maybe, maybe, just like the last election, Quebec massively backed the NPD thinking it could be a way to out Harper. When they saw it didn't work as we were getting close to the polling day and NPD was getting lower and lower in the polls, they massively backed the liberals instead.
You can extrapolate all you want from polls (and if this election showed something, once again, it's that polls should be taken with a huge grain of salt), but the reality is still that Quebec mostly backed the liberals, a party clearly against the niqab ban.
gutter_trash
Banned
the NDP never ever ever ever had a base in Quebec prior to Jack's Orange Wave
People did not vote for the NDP here for the party, they voted for Jack the man.
Tom or Thomas is not Jack. People look at Tom and go, why is a former Quebec Liberal Cabinet Minister running a Left wing socio-democrat party Federally? c'est pas Jack.
Liberals have always had a base in Quebec since Confederation, it is just that they were are their weakest from 2006 - 2011. But the old withered roots were still present in Quebec but dormant.
Justin Trudeau reignited the base that was asleep and outperformed Jean Chretien. Trudeau got the vote out, something that Iggy was not able to do.
Justin Trudeau re-captured old seniors who voted Liberals in the past as he captured a new generation of younger voters and is rebuilding the base for the future.
NDP had no base here
People did not vote for the NDP here for the party, they voted for Jack the man.
Tom or Thomas is not Jack. People look at Tom and go, why is a former Quebec Liberal Cabinet Minister running a Left wing socio-democrat party Federally? c'est pas Jack.
Liberals have always had a base in Quebec since Confederation, it is just that they were are their weakest from 2006 - 2011. But the old withered roots were still present in Quebec but dormant.
Justin Trudeau reignited the base that was asleep and outperformed Jean Chretien. Trudeau got the vote out, something that Iggy was not able to do.
Justin Trudeau re-captured old seniors who voted Liberals in the past as he captured a new generation of younger voters and is rebuilding the base for the future.
NDP had no base here
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Hmm, good point. Not sure what happened either. NDP collapse for a different reason maybe?
I think I can figure this timeline out.
1) Pre C51 --- Quebec was a deadheat between Liberals and NDP.
2) Right after C51 --- NDP riding a new orange wave and appeared to dominate.
2) Duceppe returns -- A Bloc bump at the expense of the NDP. NDP still dominating.
2a) Duceppe's honeymoon phase over rather quickly. Bloc polling back to same numbers as Mario forogthislastname days.
3) Niqab debate --- Some NDP voters defected to Bloc/Conservative? NDP still winning the province overall, but federal numbers clearly look in Liberal's favour.
----> Logjam in Ontario ends. Everyone in Ontario shifts Liberal.
4) Quebec follows Ontario in riding Liberal wave.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I'd say the lack of a provincial NDP party is proof of that. lol
It doesn't help that all the socialist/leftist parties in Quebec seem to be sovereigntist parties as well.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
This won't happen often, but I (partly) agree with gutter_trash here.
NPD never had a huge base in Quebec before last election. In 2011, the sudden orange wave was a way to try to out Harper by playing by the federal rules. It didn't pan out, and as people progressively realized that, once again, it wouldn't work, the polls started to spread across all parties until the last day were people massively backed to party that had the most chance to out Harper.
gutter_trash
Banned
they had an NDP provincial party here in the past but it got infiltrated by former convicted FLQ terrorists and the Federal NDP decided to cut off all ties with that oddity and it withered away
Transport would seem the most obvious candidate, then. Public Works could also fit.
D
Deleted member 126221
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sure if it's still happening, but I remember serious talks of a return of Quebec NPD recently...
EDIT: I suspect this election's results might slow things down however.
The Cons gained 0.2% in Québec and the Bloc lost 4.1%.
The PLC, the most pro-niqab of all, gained 19.2%.
So the narrative that the niqab had any effect on the final results is incorrect. The Bloc gained seats because the PLC was unusually strong around Montreal, splitting the federalist vote. The CPC gained seats because Quebec City is gonna Québec City...
The niqab did have an effect on the polls though. But was the NDP doomed anyway because Ontario wasn't biting?
The PLC, the most pro-niqab of all, gained 19.2%.
So the narrative that the niqab had any effect on the final results is incorrect. The Bloc gained seats because the PLC was unusually strong around Montreal, splitting the federalist vote. The CPC gained seats because Quebec City is gonna Québec City...
The niqab did have an effect on the polls though. But was the NDP doomed anyway because Ontario wasn't biting?
He's definitely a well liked councillor, but ehhh having watched some big debates play out in Edmonton City Council I mostly think of him as the one who tends to go along with the big projects after hemming and hawing a lot. He was also one of the more pro-cab councillors in recent debates over Uber's entrance to the city, which rubs me the wrong way.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
The problem with Uber is that all cities are running out of ways to raise money and taxi cab licenses are one of the few mechanisms that they have. I can see why any city would desperately want to cling to that until cab industries implode around the world.
(Not like Uber having a monopoly is in anyway a good thing, since they price based entirely on demand).
Edmonton doesn't raise any money from taxi plate sales, they've only issued something like 50 in the last twenty years and they were always for a nominal rate since they were introduced in 1993 (when they were capped at a little over a thousand). Only the plate owners have made any significant money off them through the secondary market.
It's those plate owners, who rested their retirement on the resale value of their plate, that are the hardest lobbyists against *both* releasing new plates and alternatives like Uber.
The interaction of polls to voting intention is a dynamic thing. People react to a fall in fortune, and I think it's absurd to suggest the niqab wasn't part of the NDP's fall in fortune. Going into the election, the NDP were doing quite well in Quebec and the Bloc was doing particularly badly. When the niqab issue came up, the bloc rose and the NDP fell (at the time not enough to lose them that many seats, and that remained true right up until the last few days of the election). Yes, the bloc didn't rise *that* high, but it put them back into a game they were barely participating in.
When Ontario then swung hard to the Liberals the rest of the country made their ABC choice in line with that.
Yes, a better campaign from the NDP also would have helped them survive this. If they had somehow made a breakthrough in Ontario it also might have saved them. But none of those things did, and the niqab issue rose a spectre of NDP weakness that the Liberals capitalized on.
No one is saying that the NDP lost because the bloc took their seats because of the niqab debate. They're saying the niqab debate had a real effect on the dynamics of the campaign.
killer rin
Member
Question, Do we know when Trudeau gets sworn in as Prime Minister? The First Throne Speech?
Less than 2 weeks
Simon Belmont
Banned
Do PMs get sworn in? I'm pretty sure it's effective immediately
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Hah, I guess Taxi Cab drivers are basically a defacto union.
Do cities not generate any revenue from those plates after they're issued? Like renewal fees or re-registration fees for when they transfer ownership or something?
Do cities not generate any revenue from those plates after they're issued? Like renewal fees or re-registration fees for when they transfer ownership or something?
You Are Viewtiful
Member
This is true. The NDP numbers in Ontario were never going to last long if "change" was people's first priority. In my riding, which is your average GTA riding, the NDP gets 15% at best. 5-10% usually. The NDP wrote off the GTA long ago and decided to concentrate on BC, Quebec and non-Toronto Ontario early in this election. The GTA progressive vote switching to Liberals en masse was sort of inevitable.
No, the PM is appointed by the Governor General (in place of the Queen). The election doesn't actually have any direct consequence on who get's to be the Prime Minister. Traditionally it is the leader of the part with the most seats, but it could be anyone. It doesn't even have to be an MP (a Senator has been appointed PM in the past, IIRC).
Simon Belmont
Banned
The conservative number is really interesting. Either they bled as much support to the Liberals over as they gained from the NDP, or the whole episode really only shattered the NDP base because of how they handled it. Like it shook their confidence in them.
Nope, official transition will be Nov 4.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
The only NDP base they had were in union cities like Hamilton. The Toronto gains were clearly a fluke. And maybe it really was Dennis Mills' opposition to gay marriage that helped get Jack Layton his seat in the first place and Toronto-Danforth was always going to be a Liberal seat.
A bit, but it'd amount to maybe something like $10000 a year assuming an average fee of $100/yr in maintenance fees per plate. There aren't really a lot of them, so any impact on a city's bottom line isn't going to be very much unless you basically make it impossibly expensive to run a cab.
Simon Belmont
Banned
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Weird. I just assumed cities had more money in cabs, which is why they are so invested in protecting them.
killer rin
Member
Awesome, thanks
Edit: Also, anyone know if the press conference is archived anywhere, I kind of missed out on it.
Well, some of the biggest cities do auction off the plates for very high prices, but those cities also have much larger cash flows so...
It's mostly just a lobby issue, and theoretically a safety issue that's stuck in the past. People who don't use cabs don't actually understand the safety dynamics involved. They don't understand that the dangerous parts of cabs are:
- Some random person claiming to be a licensed cab operator picks you up when you signal to them on the street that you're looking for a cab.
- If cabs won't pick you up, you have no recourse since you probably don't know anything about the theoretical cab that failed to pick you up.
- Cabbies carry fat wads of cash which attracts thiefs.
Or the dynamics of the industry itself, where their well-intentioned efforts to make it so that taxi drivers have a stable income just result in plate-holders using their cars as if they're feudal lords, giving people lower down the totem poll shitty shifts and taking the good times for themselves while raking in a guaranteed income from the fees those other cabbies pay them.
It's a mess, and the cities think they're doing the right thing, but they probably also never use cabs so don't see how messed up the system has become.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Given the news of bad practices that came out of Uber a while ago, I guess it's just fine if these two industries beat each other to death then. lol
The problem on that front is that with Uber they all get blamed on one entity, but the responsibility for the everyday abuse that people suffer from cab companies is diffuse and spread out. And they do on quite a large level. Imagine being in the middle of nowhere and getting refused service because you're trans or visibly gay or black. Or being a woman and having the cabbie leering at you or even making suggestive comments while he drives you *home*. All of these are things I've heard of first hand stories from people who won't set foot in cabs anymore. And that's on top of regular everyday bullshit like demanding you pay them in cash when they have credit card machines and stuff like that.
With Uber there's at least a record of who, when, and where. With cabs? In any of those situations you're on your own. For all the problems Uber has, I have no trouble picking out the bad guys here.
I didn't say anything about the Conservatives getting the most votes being out of the question. I'm just pointing out that their vote isn't any more/less efficient than other parties. In FPTP, the party that dominates the vote percentage often tends to get an outsized seat distribution. That's not unique to the Conservatives though.
Again, just using two fairly even results from the past two elections, comparing the Conservatives with both the Liberals and NDP...
2011 - NDP got 30.6% of the vote - won 103 out of 308 seats (33% of seats)
2015 - Conservatives got 31.9% of the vote - won 99 out of 338 seats (29% of seats)
2011 - Conservatives got 39.6% of the vote - won 166 out of 308 seats (53.9% of seats)
2015 - Liberals got 39.5% of the vote - won 184 out of 338 seats (54.4% of seats)
In both comparisons, the Conservatives got a slightly higher percentage of the vote, but actually got a slightly lower percentage of the seats. Didn't matter if the comparison was the NDP or Liberals. There's nothing special about their vote efficiency.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
My biggest problem with Uber is that not all their taxis can carry wheelchairs and not all are accessible. I've heard a lot of horror stories about drivers not helping people on wheelchairs put their wheelchairs in the trunk and leaving deaf/blind people out in the cold. Not to mention a host of other disabilities that I can't think of. There has to be a law that says if you're going to be an Uber driver, your car has to be accessible for most everyone. People with disabilities shouldn't have to play guessing games about who's okay with their certain disabilities and who isn't.
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