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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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Tiktaalik

Member
I'm *shocked* that you, of all people would be openly wondering something like that. Shocked!

Christy Clark's BC Liberals won a strong majority mandate in her recent election but she failed to win her seat because it was actually a very competitive riding.

Leaders do lose seats.

But no let's ignore the reality of the local situation in Papineau because I'm an NDP supporter.

The Bloc is collapsing in Quebec and there will be implications. Where will that support go in Papineau? NPD or Liberal Party? (It would be great if there were a local Papineau GAFer that could chime in...)

Bloc to be shut out in Quebec as NDP momentum continues, say latest seat projections


...

But the Bloc Quebecois, which at its height of popularity formed the Official Opposition, is projected to pick up zero seats according the latest LISPOP projection.

And that’s mostly a symptom of the NDP’s strength in the province.

“I think the notion of the fact that the Bloc was the best way to represent Québec interests, which sort of lasted for a couple decades, I think that’s pretty much dissipated,” Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University said during an interview Tuesday. “This is the first time I’ve had the Bloc with no seats at all.”

Quebec is without question the base of the NDP’s power. Kay’s projections see it picking up 63 of the 78 seats. The Liberals are projected to win 10 while the Conservatives could pick up five.

...
 

Walpurgis

Banned
Christy Clark's BC Liberals won a strong majority mandate in her recent election but she failed to win her seat because it was actually a very competitive riding.

Leaders do lose seats.

But no let's ignore the reality of the local situation in Papineau because I'm an NDP supporter.

The Bloc is collapsing in Quebec and there will be implications. Where will that support go in Papineau? NPD or Liberal Party? (It would be great if there were a local Papineau GAFer that could chime in...)

What happens to Trudeau if he loses his seat? He's no longer party leader?
 
What happens to Trudeau if he loses his seat? He's no longer party leader?

if the leader loses his seat but his party form government, he has two options:
a) quit being leader of party.
b) have a sitting MP of the same party resign and force a bi-election in that chosen riding where the leader will try to get himself elect (in the bi-election)

usually this is the norm for parties who form majority government or form a minority government where there leader did not win their seat

if a leader of an opposition party loses, or the leader of the 2nd opposition party loses.... then what's the point? Do like Iggnatieff and just take their ball and go home.
 
What happens to Trudeau if he loses his seat? He's no longer party leader?

Another Liberal who wins will simply step down and let Trudeau run in a by-election in a month or two (in a safe Liberal riding). Then that person who steps down will be rewarded in some way (appointment to important post in government if they win or help form it, get a job offer at a Liberal-friendly company, etc). The second part is unethical but it's how it happens.

However, you don't need to be an MP to be party leader, nor Prime Minister. If the NDP wins government, they could as a caucus vote in Joe Schmoe from Winnipeg as their leader, they don't need to appoint an MP. Basically Parliament gets to elect the Prime Minister, and it's just convention that keeps it as a sitting MP from the winning party.

if the leader loses his seat but his party form government, he has two options:
a) quit being leader of party.
b) have a sitting MP of the same party resign and force a bi-election in that chosen riding where the leader will try to get himself elect (in the bi-election)

usually this is the norm for parties who form majority government or form a minority government where there leader did not win their seat

if a leader of an opposition party loses, or the leader of the 2nd opposition party loses.... then what's the point? Do like Iggnatieff and just take their ball and go home.

The leader of government doesn't have to run again, it's simply convention. If the Liberals won the election but Trudeau lost his seat, he could still be Prime Minister and never even run in a by-election. He would only have trouble if his party decided they wanted someone else for another reason.
 
Quebec Liberals won a provincial election but their leader Robert Bourassa lost his riding.

a sacrificial MNA in a safe riding had to resign (same party) to force a bi-election where Bourassa ran then won.

A leader of a party can stay leader but cannot be Premier or Prime Minister unless they win a seat.

As for opposition leaders, it has happens that an opposition party chose a new leader who is not elected but can't sit in Parliament. To be the official leader of opposition, he has to be elected.
 

maharg

idspispopd
A leader of a party can stay leader but cannot be Premier or Prime Minister unless they win a seat.

They absolutely can. PM/Premier is not a position in the House, it's being the primary advisor to the crown and the head of the privy council, and that goes to whoever commands the confidence of the house, regardless of their seat. It's just convention that makes them seek a seat if they lose it/don't have it to begin with.

It would, in fact, be impossible for a party leader who lost their seat to even call a byelection to take a seat if they weren't the first minister.
 
Christy Clark's BC Liberals won a strong majority mandate in her recent election but she failed to win her seat because it was actually a very competitive riding.

Leaders do lose seats.

But no let's ignore the reality of the local situation in Papineau because I'm an NDP supporter.

I'm not ignoring the reality of the situation, I'm disregarding the fact everything you post is so blatantly pro-NDP. The Liberal vote in Quebec in 2011 was 14%; even the most nakedly partisan polling (that would be Forum) has them scoring well above that right now. Trudeau won his riding by 10 points during a massive wave election, behind the worst Liberal campaign in Canadian history. ThreeHundredEight has a 91% chance he wins, and there's no reason beyond your concern trolling to think otherwise.
 
Liberal support in Quebec is concentrated on the Island of Montreal and its suburbs where among heavy non-francophone, non-anglophone electorate.
1st gen and 2nd gen Canadians who adore Pierre Trudeau where the Liberal loyalty runs through the family.

older anglophones in Montreal vote Liberal while youner Anglo Millennials have no party loyalty and vote for either Liberal, NDP or Green

Greens were usually the protest vote for young Anglos in Liberal strongholds in Montreal where Liberals usually win
 
Quebec Liberals won a provincial election but their leader Robert Bourassa lost his riding.

a sacrificial MNA in a safe riding had to resign (same party) to force a bi-election where Bourassa ran then won.

A leader of a party can stay leader but cannot be Premier or Prime Minister unless they win a seat.

As for opposition leaders, it has happens that an opposition party chose a new leader who is not elected but can't sit in Parliament. To be the official leader of opposition, he has to be elected.

No that's incorrect. The position of premier or prime minister is not a parliamentary position. A random citizen could be PM, or a Senator could be PM, etc. You don't have to be from the House of Commons to be PM, it's just a convention and tradition.
 

UberTag

Member
The thought of waking up in October to four more years of Harper is utterly terrifying. I genuinely don't know what I'm going to do if it comes to pass. Quit everything and just become a hippy protester I guess. I just can't deal with it.
Let's not act rashly. Just expect another Harper term now so you won't be too disappointed. Ontario will come through for him like they always do.
 

maharg

idspispopd
so I could become PM?

Do you think you can convince the house of commons to support your throne speech? Though it's not me you have to convince that you could do that, but the governor general.

But if you did those things, sure you could. And if Stephen Harper resigned today and convinced the party to continue supporting him as PM he could too (well, not today. But a couple months ago).

I mean, it's worth noting that *right now* we arguably have a PM with no seat. The house is dissolved and his old seat doesn't even entirely exist anymore. He remains the head of the privy council and the chief advisor to the GG, and will until someone else passes a throne speech.

This was also one of the funny things about Jim Prentice resigning as premier "effective immediately" when he lost both his seat and the house. He literally couldn't do that, and he remained premier until Notley was sworn in a few weeks later.
 
No that's incorrect. The position of premier or prime minister is not a parliamentary position. A random citizen could be PM, or a Senator could be PM, etc. You don't have to be from the House of Commons to be PM, it's just a convention and tradition.

Historical backup: John Turner was only leader of the Liberal Party during his brief time as PM, not an MP. He was out of Parliament when he won the leadership, and didn't get back in until after the election, at which point he was Leader of the Opposition.

There have been a few other party leaders who weren't MPs, too. Off the top of my head, Joe Clark didn't hold a seat until the 2000 election even though he won the PC leadership in 1998. Chretien was Leader of the Opposition for a few months in 1990 without a seat. And there was Arthur Meighen: chosen to be the Conservative leader in 1940 even though he was a Senator, he resigned his Senate seat to run for Parliament...only for him to lose because Mackenzie King (who really, really hated Meighen) threw the Liberal machine behind the CCF candidate...only for him to stick around as leader for reasons known only to him. Meighen was kind of a glutton for punishment, proof that you can be a two-time PM but also be totally forgettable in every way.
 
So did I hear this right: are we officially in a recession now? If so then just watch Harper keep denying it.

We are, and he's already denying it. This morning he was trumpeting the fact the Canadian economy had grown during Q2, disregarding the fact that the growth was minimal. If you think facts are getting in his way, you aren't giving him enough credit.
 
We are, and he's already denying it. This morning he was trumpeting the fact the Canadian economy had grown during Q2, disregarding the fact that the growth was minimal. If you think facts are getting in his way, you aren't giving him enough credit.
Jesus fucking Christ, I swear Harper may as well be the Canadian equivalent of George W. Bush.
 
The Scarborough Center I am voting in used to have a very Liberal turnout, but the recent Harper years managed to eke it out into a Conservative riding, but it seems like it will flip back to Liberal.

So I guess I'll be voting Liberal for sure, and my husband is thinking of voting for NDP.
Either way, the Conservatives are likely to lose my riding, so good! :>

Not if the lib and NDP vote splits.
 

UberTag

Member
Jesus fucking Christ, I swear Harper may as well be the Canadian equivalent of George W. Bush.
At least the U.S was able to rid themselves of Dubya after 8 years.
We've been stuck with Harper for 9 and we're about to give him another 4 years on top of that.

Harper and Mulcair blamed for Blue Jays losses on social media

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper took his campaign to the ball game Monday evening, touring a Toronto Blue Jays batting practice, interviewing baseball great Roberto Alomar and staying for the game against the Cleveland Indians.

The Blue Jays had a monumental August, with the debut of ace lefty David Price, sold-out games at the Rogers Centre and their rise to the top of the American League East standings.

"It's like the '90s all over again. People are back into it, they are back into the Blue Jays," said Harper, in his one-on-one interview with Alomar, which was posted to his Twitter account.

"I don't think this team's ever looked stronger."

But the Indians beat the Blue Jays 4-2, ending a landmark month with a loss.
Harper doesn't deserve blame for this defeat. Although he will deserve blame if he remembers it as a win if you ask him about it. Just like he's in denial about the economy. All of the blame for the loss must fall on my shoulders as I was in attendance at the Jays game last night with my father and I have cursed him since the late 1980s that every game we attend together will result in the defeat of the team he is rooting for. Last night was no exception.
 

Prax

Member
Not if the lib and NDP vote splits.

The Lib and NDP votes for my riding are projected like 38% and 32% or something respectively.. At the moment anyway! Conservatives are projected to be at 25%, so they are not a big worry, I assume!
 

SRG01

Member
We are, and he's already denying it. This morning he was trumpeting the fact the Canadian economy had grown during Q2, disregarding the fact that the growth was minimal. If you think facts are getting in his way, you aren't giving him enough credit.

If I read the articles correctly, Q2 was a contraction, but the month of June itself was up a bit.
 

maharg

idspispopd
If I read the articles correctly, Q2 was a contraction, but the month of June itself was up a bit.

Isn't june up a bit month to month, but year to year (ie. compared to last June) it's still down?

Month-to-month doesn't really seem like a very meaningful measure. Back to school sales probably bump the economy overall every year. :p
 
Isn't june up a bit month to month, but year to year (ie. compared to last June) it's still down?

Month-to-month doesn't really seem like a very meaningful measure. Back to school sales probably bump the economy overall every year. :p

The stats were for June, so the only back to school sales they picked up were the mega-keeners. Unless you're meaning September's numbers get goosed a little every year, in which case, point taken.

As for the serious part of your question, growth in June was greater this year than it was last year, according to the chart in this story.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
I'm not ignoring the reality of the situation, I'm disregarding the fact everything you post is so blatantly pro-NDP. The Liberal vote in Quebec in 2011 was 14%; even the most nakedly partisan polling (that would be Forum) has them scoring well above that right now. Trudeau won his riding by 10 points during a massive wave election, behind the worst Liberal campaign in Canadian history. ThreeHundredEight has a 91% chance he wins, and there's no reason beyond your concern trolling to think otherwise.

I'm spitballing here about Trudeau's riding because I saw an article about how disastrously the Bloc is doing, and it made me have a look at ridings that could be effected by a drop in Bloc support. It's a discussion board and discussing is what one does. How about next time you post you post an interesting article for discussion instead of lurking around and accusing me of partisanship?

Back to the topic, let's have a look at the polls ourselves instead of hand waving the idea away. I agree with dismissing Forum, but I'd dismiss Nanos as well given that they only sample 250 people. That leaves Ekos and Abacus (unless I'm forgetting one).

Abacus has Quebec Liberal support at 23%, NDP 44% and Bloc at 13% If that holds then absolutely I think we can be sure that the Liberals will hold onto their current seats if not possibly gain some.

Ekos however has the Liberals at 16%, Bloc 17% and NDP 44%. Not much better than what the Liberals did in 2011. If nearer to election time the Liberals are still at that low number I'm going to be keeping my eye on Liberal seats in QC, as there's the possibility that they could lose some, depending on where that Bloc support goes. In the 2011 race the Bloc received 23% of the vote, so that's a ton of support that's bled away. Where that will go is a super interesting question.

As an aside is there some reason I should give a shit about ThreeHundredEight? Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight have gained huge respect because the dude has done great work and has repeatedly successfully predicted US Election results. I'm genuinely curious has the ThreeHundredEight racked up any successes under his belt? If he hasn't then he's just some dude with a blog.
 
As an aside is there some reason I should give a shit about ThreeHundredEight? Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight have gained huge respect because the dude has done great work and has repeatedly successfully predicted US Election results. I'm genuinely curious has the ThreeHundredEight racked up any successes under his belt? If he hasn't then he's just some dude with a blog.

Pretty sure they have similar methodology. Their prediction for the last Ontario election were pretty close.
 
Why don't you think we're in a recession? The dollar is ass and we now fit the definition.
the dollar was ass when our economy was doing really well in 2002 2004.

the dollar we can't control. it's all locked into commodities.

the Sauds are purposefully outputting more oil to bring the price of oil down that would choke smaller countried and foreign competitors. Russia has been hurting allot more and the present state of Venuzuella is dire.

but i do agree that we must diversify to develope alternate sources of renewable energy
 
Pretty sure they have similar methodology. Their prediction for the last Ontario election were pretty close.

No, the only similarity is the naming of the sites. 308 literally just averages the polls for national stuff. The only weighting he does is to weight more recent polls more strongly.

538 on the other hand actually shapes the polls based on known past results of those polls, and applies shifts based on demographic info. So if certain poll is always leaning one way, Nate Silver actually goes in an modifies their numbers. They also delve into the polls and apply them to individual counties to determine local stuff. However polling in the US is also much better than in Canada (in terms of proper weighting of demographics and much larger sample sizes).

308 could be done by anyone with Excel, while 538 requires a masters in statistics and a decade of experience in poll methodology.
 
I don't think we are in a recession IMO, and I am not a Harper fan

You can't just say "I don't think we are in a recession." A recession is formally defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The Canadian economy shrank 0.2 and 0.1 % the past two quarters so the Canadian economy is officially in a recession. You could argue that those percentages are basically zero and that the economy is essentially stagnant but a modest recession is still a recession and stagnation is also bad.

The benefit of having such a modest recession is that it will be easier for Mulcair to turn you guys around. Now get out and vote, guys. I would like to keep Canada as the place I can flee to when shit goes down.
 

maharg

idspispopd
No, the only similarity is the naming of the sites. 308 literally just averages the polls for national stuff. The only weighting he does is to weight more recent polls more strongly.

Well, this is not entirely fair. Yes, Nate does vastly more (and in a completely different way), but 308's riding projections do have more to them than just plain uniform swing. He has incumbency and star power and a few other things mixed in, and given actual election results his model has been pretty spot on.

But realistically, no one could do what Nate Silver does for Canadian politics because our polls really are shitty. They're not frequent, regular, nor transparent enough. And most of the regional subsamples are an absolute joke. Plus they monkey with (secret) methodology all the time so even tracking a poll against its own history is probably not realistic.

Basically Nate Silver has enough data that he *can* run monte carlo simulations (the main methodology of 538). Doing so with the data we have would be pointless, there just isn't enough. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Nate Silver is an avid user of Excel too. It's actually pretty damn powerful.

Surprisingly, though, an actual bio of Eric Grenier is pretty hard to come by.
 
Well, this is not entirely fair. Yes, Nate does vastly more (and in a completely different way), but 308's riding projections do have more to them than just plain uniform swing. He has incumbency and star power and a few other things mixed in, and given actual election results his model has been pretty spot on.

But realistically, no one could do what Nate Silver does for Canadian politics because our polls really are shitty. They're not frequent, regular, nor transparent enough. And most of the regional subsamples are an absolute joke. Plus they monkey with (secret) methodology all the time so even tracking a poll against its own history is probably not realistic.

Basically Nate Silver has enough data that he *can* run monte carlo simulations (the main methodology of 538). Doing so with the data we have would be pointless, there just isn't enough. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Nate Silver is an avid user of Excel too. It's actually pretty damn powerful.

Surprisingly, though, an actual bio of Eric Grenier is pretty hard to come by.
whatever Conservatives get in polls you must add +2 or +3% on Election day for them because of the secret closet Conservative voters who keep quiet who don't want to offend their more progressive friends
 

t-storm

Member
Do you think you can convince the house of commons to support your throne speech? Though it's not me you have to convince that you could do that, but the governor general.

But if you did those things, sure you could. And if Stephen Harper resigned today and convinced the party to continue supporting him as PM he could too (well, not today. But a couple months ago).

I mean, it's worth noting that *right now* we arguably have a PM with no seat. The house is dissolved and his old seat doesn't even entirely exist anymore. He remains the head of the privy council and the chief advisor to the GG, and will until someone else passes a throne speech.

This was also one of the funny things about Jim Prentice resigning as premier "effective immediately" when he lost both his seat and the house. He literally couldn't do that, and he remained premier until Notley was sworn in a few weeks later.
The head of the privy council is the clerk, a public servant, not a politician. I couldn't find any source that says the PM is the head of the privy council.

And for the PM losing his seat, you're correct but like any other member of cabinet that were to lose their seat, they'd have to win another one soon. parl.gc.ca says:

A prime minister may lose his or her seat in an election, but can remain in office as long as the party has sufficient support in the House of Commons to be able to govern, though again, he or she must, by custom, win a seat very promptly.
 

maharg

idspispopd
whatever Conservatives get in polls you must add +2 or +3% on Election day for them because of the secret closet Conservative voters who keep quiet who don't want to offend their more progressive friends

I'm pretty sure he also factors in shy tory effects.

The head of the privy council is the clerk, a public servant, not a politician. I couldn't find any source that says the PM is the head of the privy council.

To be more specific (which is fair), the head of the cabinet, which is a committee of the privy council. The entire privy council includes basically everyone who's ever been a minister, so is broader than the government itself. The government holds its power from its membership in the cabinet and the privy council as the direct advisors to the crown, and not through their membership in the house of commons. At one point it was actually standard practice for a member appointed to cabinet to resign their seat immediately and seek a new mandate from their riding, which highlighted the differing roles being in one vs. the other had.

And for the PM losing his seat, you're correct but like any other member of cabinet that were to lose their seat, they'd have to win another one soon. parl.gc.ca says:

By convention is operative here. No one is saying that it isn't expected. But the leader of the party that commands the confidence house is the Prime Minister no matter whether they are a member or not. There are no legal consequences for them remaining outside the house, but their credibility would probably take a huge hit and a caucus revolt would probably remove them from government even in a tightly controlled party like the CPC, to be honest.
 

mo60

Member
Do you think you can convince the house of commons to support your throne speech? Though it's not me you have to convince that you could do that, but the governor general.

But if you did those things, sure you could. And if Stephen Harper resigned today and convinced the party to continue supporting him as PM he could too (well, not today. But a couple months ago).

I mean, it's worth noting that *right now* we arguably have a PM with no seat. The house is dissolved and his old seat doesn't even entirely exist anymore. He remains the head of the privy council and the chief advisor to the GG, and will until someone else passes a throne speech.

This was also one of the funny things about Jim Prentice resigning as premier "effective immediately" when he lost both his seat and the house. He literally couldn't do that, and he remained premier until Notley was sworn in a few weeks later.

Jim Prentice never lost his seat. He actually won it, but resigned immediately from his seat. He just lost the legislature. I wonder if harper will do the same thing on election night if the conservatives lose the election,but I have a feeling he won't because I think he knows the backlash he will get if he did that.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Jim Prentice never lost his seat. He actually won it, but resigned immediately from his seat.

You're right. And I looked it up and he actually resigned as leader 'effective immediately,' which obviously he could do. Not sure how I remembered that so badly. :/

He just lost the legislature. I wonder if harper will do the same thing on election night if the conservatives lose the election,but I have a feeling he won't because I think he knows the backlash he will get if he did that.

Well, backlash wouldn't really matter much for him at this point. But I don't think he'd do resign his seat election night. I'm not even sure he'd resign as leader election night, tbh.
 

super6646

Banned
___________________________________________________________________________

WHAT
___________________________________________________________________________

Canada's 42nd general election, happening October 19th. That's just

t1445259600z1.png


away!

Yes, we've known this is the date since 2011. And yes, you've been seeing Conservative Party attack ads against Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau for many, many months now, assuming you have a TV. But the election period only officially begins when Prime Minister Stephen Harper visits Governor General David Johnston to request the election period officially begin, so now -- or, at least, as of 10 am on Sunday, August 2nd -- we're into the longest election campaign since 1872. (CBC has a brief overview of how everything changes with the official writ drop, if you're curious.)

___________________________________________________________________________

WHY
___________________________________________________________________________

Because constitutionally, Canada is required to have an election every five years. There's also a "Fair Elections Act" that calls for elections to be every four years, and the last one was 2011, so...

Why is it starting now, you mean? Because even though the Act says Elections have to be every four years, and the Canada Elections Act includes a provision for the minimum length of a campaign (36 days), there's nothing anywhere that says the maximum length of a campaign. The longer a campaign goes, the higher the spending limits go: during a typical election campaign, the spending limit per party is $25 million. For each additional day, the limit is increased by 1/37th, or an extra $675,000, meaning an 11-week campaign would allow parties to spend more than $50 million.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Conservatives are estimated to have more money than all the other parties combined.

___________________________________________________________________________

WHERE
___________________________________________________________________________

...Canada, obviously. Though to be more precise, it's technically 338 local elections happening concurrently. Want to know what riding you're in, or who's running in your area, or where to vote? Then head to Elections Canada's website and scroll down to the Voter Information Service section. This is the first election with new boundaries, so your electoral district may have changed!

___________________________________________________________________________

WHEN
___________________________________________________________________________

Again, October 19th.

There will, presumably, be many opportunities for advance voting, though the dates and locations of those won't be known until all the candidates have filed their paperwork. Again, check with Elections Canada for details!

There are also debates. Maybe lots of debates, though that's still up in the air. The Conservatives are refusing to take part in the traditional televised debates, organized by the broadcast consortium, because (according to the Globe and Mail, at least) they want to "decrease the political weight of the debates by splitting them into smaller events with smaller audiences where the Conservatives have more leverage to achieve the format and focus that they feel suits them as a right-of-centre incumbents". The NDP won't take part in any debates that a) don't include the Conservatives, or b) do include the Greens. The Liberals aren't committing to anything at the moment. And the Greens are waiting by the phone, hoping someone remembers they exist.

But we know the details of the first debate -- and it's not far off! It's August 6th, it's being sponsored by Macleans Magazine, Rogers, and CityTV, and leaders of all four parties will be there.

The traditional TV debates are scheduled for October 7th and 8th, but it remains to be seen who'll be taking part in them.

___________________________________________________________________________

WHO
___________________________________________________________________________

At the time of Parliament's dissolution, the seat standings look like this:

Conservatives: 159 seats
NDP: 95
Liberal: 36
Bloc Québécois: 2
Greens: 2
Strength in Democracy: 2

There are also 8 independents and 4 vacant seats.

Who are your voting options? Elections Canada, once again, has a list of all the registered and eligible political parties in the country, but with all apologies to the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada, the Marijuana Party, Pirate Party of Canada and the Bridge Party of Canada (among others), there are really only a couple of parties that will win seats, or even have candidates in most ridings. So here's who you need to know:

The Democratic Advancement Party of Canada -- Nah, just kidding.


Conservative Party of Canada
Leader: Stephen Harper


Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party, the Prime Minister of Canada, and the Member of Parliament for Calgary Southwest. He's been Prime Minister since 2006, leader of the Conservative Party (and its predecessor, the Canadian Alliance Party) since 2002, and an MP since 1993 (with a brief hiatus from 1997 to 2002). This will be his fifth election as leader. He's trying to become the first person since 1908 to win four consecutive elections.


New Democratic Party of Canada
Leader: Thomas Mulcair


Thomas Mulcair is the leader of the New Democratic Party, Leader of the Official Opposition in the House of Commons, and the Member of Parliament for Outremont. He's been Leader of the Opposition and the NDP since 2012, and an MP since 2007. This will be his first election as leader. He's trying to become the first NDP leader to become Prime Minister.


Liberal Party of Canada
Leader: Justin Trudeau
Party Platform: realchange.ca


Justin Trudeau is the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, and Member of Parliament for Papineau. He's been the Liberal leader since 2013, and an MP since 2008. This is his first election as leader. He's hoping to lead the Liberals back to power for the first time since 2006.


Bloc Québécois
Leader: Gilles Duceppe


Gilles Duceppe is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois, and is not currently a member of Parliament. He was previously Bloc leader from 1996 to 2011, and the Member of Parliament for Laurier-Sainte-Marie from 1990 to 2011. This is his seventh election as leader. He's trying to...get back into Parliament, I guess? Make the Bloc Quebecois an official party again? If there are any separatists among us, they can let us know what the party's federal aim is at this point, because it's not entirely clear.


Green Party
Leader: Elizabeth May
Party Platform: Vision Green



Elizabeth May is the leader of the Green Party of Canada, and Member of Parliament for Saanich—Gulf Islands. She's been the Green Party leader since 2006, and an MP since 2011. This is her third election as leader. She's hoping to build on the success of the last election, which saw her become the first elected Green in Canadian history.

___________________________________________________________________________

HOW
___________________________________________________________________________

...to vote? Again, Elections Canada has you covered. Voting locations, hours, candidates -- everything you could possibly need to know is there.

...will this thread go? I'll take a page from the very impressive UK election thread and lay down some rough guidelines:

1) No personal attacks. Don't attack someone for their party affiliation, whether perceived or stated. Let's try keep our debates/arguments focused on policies. Just because it's an election doesn't mean you get to ignore the NeoGAF Terms of Service.

2) You don't have to reveal your party affiliation or who you plan on voting for. By extension, that means no pressuring someone into revealing who they voted for.

3) If you're making a factual argument, please use facts from credible sources. If you want to talk polling, that's fine, but remember that polls aren't the be-all and end-all of discourse. That's especially true in Canada, where the pollsters are notoriously unreliable and our electoral system doesn't lend itself as well as the US system to traditional opinion polling.

4) All viewpoints are welcome. We have a multiparty system, we can have a multiparty discussion.

5) Keep it civil. Just want to emphasize that point.

...should you vote? That's up to you. Read up on the parties and candidates in your riding, and decide which platform most closely aligns with your values. The CBC Vote Compass is probably the most accurate online quiz, if you want to farm out your decision-making to a website. There's also the Canadian version of I Side With, though be warned that it may not be particularly accurate or helpful (at least judging by the experiences of Canadian Poligaf -- though it's also entirely possible every one of us is a raging communist, I suppose).

If there's anything else to add, let me know. And if anyone wants to contribute a different header, feel free, because mine kind of sucks.

8/6/2015: Added first English debate links.


___________________________________________________________________________

Debate #1: August 6, 2015
___________________________________________________________________________


How to Watch
TV:
CityTV (English)
CPAC (English/French)
OMNI (Italian, Punjabi, Mandarin and Cantonese)

Online:
http://www.macleans.ca/debate
http://www.cpac.ca/
http://www.omnitv.ca/

That photo of Thomas Mulcair. Lol.
 

mo60

Member
You're right. And I looked it up and he actually resigned as leader 'effective immediately,' which obviously he could do. Not sure how I remembered that so badly. :/



Well, backlash wouldn't really matter much for him at this point. But I don't think he'd do resign his seat election night. I'm not even sure he'd resign as leader election night, tbh.

This will depend on if harper wants to be the the leader of the opposition or official opposition if he loses this election. I'm not sure if he wants to be either. It's possible he stays on as CPC leader after the election for a few months or so if the CPC loses to ensure the CPC transitions well to their new opposition role and to wait until a new leader is chosen to prevent chaos.
 
I'm spitballing here about Trudeau's riding because I saw an article about how disastrously the Bloc is doing, and it made me have a look at ridings that could be effected by a drop in Bloc support. It's a discussion board and discussing is what one does. How about next time you post you post an interesting article for discussion instead of lurking around and accusing me of partisanship?

Yep, that's me alright: lurking around this thread, drive-by posting. You got me.

Did you seriously quote the entire OP just for that one liner?

Well it was a pretty great OP. ;)

You can't just say "I don't think we are in a recession." A recession is formally defined as a period of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The Canadian economy shrank 0.2 and 0.1 % the past two quarters so the Canadian economy is officially in a recession. You could argue that those percentages are basically zero and that the economy is essentially stagnant but a modest recession is still a recession and stagnation is also bad.

The benefit of having such a modest recession is that it will be easier for Mulcair to turn you guys around. Now get out and vote, guys. I would like to keep Canada as the place I can flee to when shit goes down.

Considering Mulcair's plan is now, basically, to promise everything and hope for a return to post-WWII growth rates, I don't have faith that a Mulcair could turn anything around. I know he wants Thatcher's "winds of liberty" to come to Canada, but somehow I don't think massive austerity cuts are the way to go about doing that.

Well, this is not entirely fair. Yes, Nate does vastly more (and in a completely different way), but 308's riding projections do have more to them than just plain uniform swing. He has incumbency and star power and a few other things mixed in, and given actual election results his model has been pretty spot on.

But realistically, no one could do what Nate Silver does for Canadian politics because our polls really are shitty. They're not frequent, regular, nor transparent enough. And most of the regional subsamples are an absolute joke. Plus they monkey with (secret) methodology all the time so even tracking a poll against its own history is probably not realistic.

Basically Nate Silver has enough data that he *can* run monte carlo simulations (the main methodology of 538). Doing so with the data we have would be pointless, there just isn't enough. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Nate Silver is an avid user of Excel too. It's actually pretty damn powerful.

Surprisingly, though, an actual bio of Eric Grenier is pretty hard to come by.

Didn't you get annoyed at me for saying this exact same thing a few days ago? I mean, I'm glad you've come around, but I seem to remember you saying polling in Canada wasn't as abysmal as I was suggesting.

That's weird about Grenier, though. I looked around a little and...yep, everything about him seems to start with him founding 308. I'd say it's bizarre how he's managed to become the go-to guy for polling analysis with so little info about his background or qualifications, but then again, this is Canada: the media will gladly take whatever they can get if it means they get to talk more about polling.

Anyway, speaking of Westminster conventions: Harper couldn't make Senate appointment recommendations on his way out the door, could he? Because...Federal lawyers maintain PM made no decision to not fill Senate vacancies. I wouldn't think the GG would accept any recommendations from an outgoing PM, but at the same time, doing something sneaky like that sounds like it would be right up Harper's alley.
 

Brandson

Member
You're actually still represented by your liberal MP. Or were until the writ was dropped. Now you're not really represented by anyone at all until the election results are official.

The redistricting doesn't apply until the first general election after the new boundaries are decided. And the boundaries change every 10 years, after the census, to take into account changes in population and demographic distribution.

That makes sense. It's also not at all what the mailer from the Conservative MP said when the change happened. He claimed to be our representative.
 
NDP tied with Liberals for lead in Montreal as Tories and Bloc lag behind, new poll says

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...l-as-tories-and-bloc-lag-behind-new-poll-says

na0902_montrealvotepoll_c_jr1.jpg


Typically for Montreal, voter intentions are split along language lines. Forty-two per cent of francophones plan to vote NDP while 49 per cent of anglophones say they will vote Liberal.
Loaylty to the Trudeau brand remains strong among Anglos and ethnic minorities while Francos drop the Bloc for the NDP.

Harper forever alone

*edit with more info on another poll
Mainstreet%2BMtl%2Bisland.bmp

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/09/sur-lile-de-montreal-cest-npd-vs-plc.html
 

maharg

idspispopd
Didn't you get annoyed at me for saying this exact same thing a few days ago? I mean, I'm glad you've come around, but I seem to remember you saying polling in Canada wasn't as abysmal as I was suggesting.

There is a large gap of space between saying Canadian polling isn't as bad as you were describing (which was basically "there are regular 10 point variances!", which isn't true at all) and saying everything is hunky dory. The polls are bad, and they don't lend themselves to statistical analysis like Silver does, but they still aren't as bad as you were describing.
 
And the key part, to address Tiktaalik's "question" about how likely it is that Trudeau loses his seat:

But Mainstreet compared the way people plan to vote this time to the way they said they voted in 2011. The Liberals make the most gains, up 12 per cent compared to 2011. Both the Conservatives and Bloc are down compared to 2011. The NDP is only down two percentage points from the 2011 results.

Maybe it's time to start asking if Mulcair hangs on to Outremont -- which, after all, was a Liberal riding forever until he swept in a few years ago?

There is a large gap of space between saying Canadian polling isn't as bad as you were describing (which was basically "there are regular 10 point variances!", which isn't true at all) and saying everything is hunky dory. The polls are bad, and they don't lend themselves to statistical analysis like Silver does, but they still aren't as bad as you were describing.

Looking at the poll tracker:

Angus Reid, polling 8/19-8/24: NDP at 37
Forum, 8/23-8/24: NDP at 40
Nanos/CTV, 8/2-8/28: NDP at 30.8
Innovative/Hill Times, 8/24-8/26: NDP at 32

Or going back to July:

Mainstreet/Postmedia, 7/20-7/21: CPC at 38
Forum/Toronto Star, 7/19-7/20: CPC at 28
EKOS/iPolitics, 7/22-7/28: CPC at 30.1

Apologies for saying there are 10 point spreads. I should've said there are 9.2 spreads.
 
you guys till going at it about Trudeau losing his seat?

if it was in a more Anglo riding where Anne Lagacé Dowson is more recognized, possibly.

But Papineau is a riding that is half Franco and half ethnic minorities with many new generation 1 Canadians but almost no Anglos.
So nobody knows who Anne Lagacé Dowson in that riding unless they watched CBC in English year and years ago or listen to CJAD AM Radio in English
 
Considering Mulcair's plan is now, basically, to promise everything and hope for a return to post-WWII growth rates, I don't have faith that a Mulcair could turn anything around. I know he wants Thatcher's "winds of liberty" to come to Canada, but somehow I don't think massive austerity cuts are the way to go about doing that.

As an American, I have no horse in this race other than I will be looking for jobs in Canada when I finish my PhD. Going by Mulcair and Trudeau's positions, I would prefer it if you guys got Trudeau for your next PM but that doesn't look like it will happen. It's either Harper or Mulcair and your guys' ridiculous multiparty first-past-the-post electoral system will destroy you. So, my suggestion to you guys is to elect Mulcair as PM with enough liberals to keep up the pressure for the NDP to enact electoral reform and both parties pushing each other left. If the NDP gets an outright majority, electoral reform might become a lower priority to them.

Honestly, since Layton died, I don't even know why you guys have an NDP. The NDP has seemed to have abandoned a lot of the core principles that made it an attractive alternative to the liberals. Momentum is in their favor though.

The infighting the Canadian left is having is strangling you guys. In no functional democracy would Harper be prime minister today or even have a chance at remaining so this October.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
And the key part, to address Tiktaalik's "question" about how likely it is that Trudeau loses his seat:

But Mainstreet compared the way people plan to vote this time to the way they said they voted in 2011. The Liberals make the most gains, up 12 per cent compared to 2011. Both the Conservatives and Bloc are down compared to 2011. The NDP is only down two percentage points from the 2011 results.


Maybe it's time to start asking if Mulcair hangs on to Outremont -- which, after all, was a Liberal riding forever until he swept in a few years ago?

lol I was literally just about quote the exact same thing. Yes this absolutely this puts that question to bed. And no Mulcair still probably doesn't need to worry as he won with 55% of the vote last election.

This is why we badly need more by riding polling in Canada. Yesterday I was spitballing based on Provincial polling numbers, and implored someone from Papineau to jump in and provide the local details, and today we see that the situation on the ground in Montreal is indeed actually vastly different from the Provincial case.

Similarly we've gotten a few hints that although the Green's are doing very low numbers Nationally and a bit better in BC but still low, Vancouver Island is heavily leaning Green and this may be a big spoiler to the NDP's hopes of gaining more seats in BC.
 

Azih

Member
May has been forced to campaign as the leader of the Green Party of Vancouver rather than the Green Party of Canada in order to achieve greater success. So dumb.
 
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