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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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thelatestmodel

Junior, please.
If Layton was still around, I wouldn't need to think about who to vote for.


RIP

Pretty much. I think he would have been one of the best Prime Ministers Canada has ever had.

The thought of waking up in October to four more years of Harper is utterly terrifying. I genuinely don't know what I'm going to do if it comes to pass. Quit everything and just become a hippy protester I guess. I just can't deal with it.
 
If Layton was still around, I wouldn't need to think about who to vote for.


RIP
same here, am a life long Liberal and I voted NDP in both 2008 and 2011 because of Jack.

Since Mulcair has history of changing colors like a chameleon, saying one thing in French then saying something completely different in English, I don't trust Mulcair

plus Mulcair does the same type of pandering that Harper does when he reaches over to hardcore Nationalists. Which is disconcerting as a Montrealer myself

even if Justin is the least experienced, at least everyone knows where he stands in terms of his beliefs, values and compass. There is no doubt when it comes to his beliefs.

As for Thomas Mulcair? oofff one day he likes Thatcher, one days he muses privatizing of Healthcare, then next day he is pandering to worker's unions, one day he is a staunch Federalist in the NO camp then the next day he goes off and recruits separatists who voted YES into his party

Mulcair is Machiavellic and only cares about Power. Mulcair is a Frank Underwood
 

Razorskin

----- ------
same here, am a life long Liberal and I voted NDP in both 2008 and 2011 because of Jack.

Since Mulcair has history of changing colors like a chameleon, saying one thing in French then saying something completely different in English, I don't trust Mulcair

plus Mulcair does the same type of pandering that Harper does when he reaches over to hardcore Nationalists. Which is disconcerting as a Montrealer myself

even if Justin is the least experienced, at least everyone knows where he stands in terms of his beliefs, values and compass. There is no doubt when it comes to his beliefs.

As for Thomas Mulcair? oofff one day he likes Thatcher, one days he muses privatizing of Healthcare, then next day he is pandering to worker's unions, one day he is a staunch Federalist in the NO camp then the next day he goes off and recruits separatists who voted YES into his party

Mulcair is Machiavellic and only cares about Power. Mulcair is a Frank Underwood

Do you have any articles painting Mulcair in such a light? I'm definitely not as down on Mulcair as you are and language laws and whatnot aren't my main concern.

Though, I'm not a fan of my current MP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabelle_Morin
 
same here, am a life long Liberal and I voted NDP in both 2008 and 2011 because of Jack.

Since Mulcair has history of changing colors like a chameleon, saying one thing in French then saying something completely different in English, I don't trust Mulcair

plus Mulcair does the same type of pandering that Harper does when he reaches over to hardcore Nationalists. Which is disconcerting as a Montrealer myself

even if Justin is the least experienced, at least everyone knows where he stands in terms of his beliefs, values and compass. There is no doubt when it comes to his beliefs.

As for Thomas Mulcair? oofff one day he likes Thatcher, one days he muses privatizing of Healthcare, then next day he is pandering to worker's unions, one day he is a staunch Federalist in the NO camp then the next day he goes off and recruits separatists who voted YES into his party

Mulcair is Machiavellic and only cares about Power. Mulcair is a Frank Underwood


Mods, can we make this guy stop repeating the same talking points over and over without any variety or change? At this point I'd actually believe he's a (really poorly trained) liberal astroturfer.

All he does is repeat the same attack lines and never responds to actual questions or challenges and doesn't take part in the conversation here.
 
Mods, can we make this guy stop repeating the same talking points over and over without any variety or change? At this point I'd actually believe he's a (really poorly trained) liberal astroturfer.

All he does is repeat the same attack lines and never responds to actual questions or challenges and doesn't take part in the conversation here.
I have not insulted anybody, I have not called out anybody with disparaging insult, I have not used a slur.

on GAF, there is an ignore feature, you can add me to the list.

Yo, I like Jack Layton allot, I went to see him twice in Person. Once in 2008 and once in 2011.

Jack Layton was real man. I don't see it in Tom
 
All you do is say the same lines over and over:

- Mulcair says one thing in English, another in French
- Justin Trudeau will be PM

But when pressed to provide examples or evidence, you never respond. If you actually participated in conversation like a real person then people might respect you. I don't think a single person here does because of your obvious partisan hackery.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Seems to me that Mulcair, as the only Quebec NPD MP and top Quebec Lieutenant of Jack Layton, annihilated the Bloc in Quebec, something that the Libs and Conservatives had been totally unable to for years. Now Quebec is full of Federalist MPs.

Federalists should be praising Mulcair.
 
All you do is say the same lines over and over:

- Mulcair says one thing in English, another in French
- Justin Trudeau will be PM

But when pressed to provide examples or evidence, you never respond. If you actually participated in conversation like a real person then people might respect you. I don't think a single person here does because of your obvious partisan hackery.

Pretty much. I say we keep him around though.
I wanna see his meltdown on election night. lol
 

diaspora

Member
Seems to me that Mulcair, as the only Quebec NPD MP and top Quebec Lieutenant of Jack Layton, annihilated the Bloc in Quebec, something that the Libs and Conservatives had been totally unable to for years. Now Quebec is full of Federalist MPs.

Federalists should be praising Mulcair.

That's a bit of a stretch.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
With the NPD support numbers north of 50% in Quebec is it time to start wondering if Trudeau will be able to keep his seat?

Here are the 2011 election results redistributed based on the riding changes.

Code:
Liberal   17,047	37.93
New Democratic   13,625	29.47
Bloc Québécois   11,421	24.89
Conservative	2,314	5.04
Green	868	1.89
Others	357	0.78

The Liberals exploited a split between NPD and Bloc. If Bloc support vanishes and moves to the NPD, then Trudeau would lose the riding. The NPD candidate needs ~30% of the Bloc support in order to win, assuming that Trudeau's support stays the same and doesn't improve.
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
With the NPD support numbers north of 50% in Quebec is it time to start wondering if Trudeau will be able to keep his seat?

Here are the 2011 election results redistributed based on the riding changes.

Code:
Liberal   17,047	37.93
New Democratic   13,625	29.47
Bloc Québécois   11,421	24.89
Conservative	2,314	5.04
Green	868	1.89
Others	357	0.78

The Liberals exploited a split between NPD and Bloc. If Bloc support vanishes and moves to the NPD, then Trudeau would lose the riding. The NPD candidate needs ~30% of the Bloc support in order to win, assuming that Trudeau's support stays the same and doesn't improve.
Interesting analysis, but flawed because of a poor same-support assumption.

In 2011, national support for the Liberals was 18%. It's now near 30%, which would have a positive effect on Trudeau's votes as well.

In 2011, Trudeau wasn't that high-profile a candidate, he was nowhere close to being nationally recognized. As party leader, he's going to bump his vote up thanks to better recognition + people like voting for a party leader. It's extremely rare that a leader will lose its seat if his party doesn't collapse.

Mark my words for future mockery if you want, but Trudeau will keep his seat even with the NDP at 50% in Quebec.
 
Seems to me that Mulcair, as the only Quebec NPD MP and top Quebec Lieutenant of Jack Layton, annihilated the Bloc in Quebec, something that the Libs and Conservatives had been totally unable to for years. Now Quebec is full of Federalist MPs.

Federalists should be praising Mulcair.
I wouln't call Alex Boulerice, Nicole Turmel, Maria Mourani, Hans Marotte as Federalists.

They are as Federalist as Brian Mulroney's Quebec MPs in 1990.
 

Boogie

Member
All you do is say the same lines over and over:

- Mulcair says one thing in English, another in French
- Justin Trudeau will be PM

But when pressed to provide examples or evidence, you never respond. If you actually participated in conversation like a real person then people might respect you. I don't think a single person here does because of your obvious partisan hackery.

Gutter_trash's shtick is annoying, but I don't think it warrants mod intervention.

Ignore him or have some fun with him.

I, personally, legit wonder sometimes if g_t's shtick isn't possibly related to some type of OCD behaviour. Reminds me of a non-insane Manabyte a little.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Interesting analysis, but flawed because of a poor same-support assumption.

In 2011, national support for the Liberals was 18%. It's now near 30%, which would have a positive effect on Trudeau's votes as well.

In 2011, Trudeau wasn't that high-profile a candidate, he was nowhere close to being nationally recognized. As party leader, he's going to bump his vote up thanks to better recognition + people like voting for a party leader. It's extremely rare that a leader will lose its seat if his party doesn't collapse.

Mark my words for future mockery if you want, but Trudeau will keep his seat even with the NDP at 50% in Quebec.

Certainly I am blindly speculating. I know nothing about the local politics of Papineau but I can't help put notice that it's a competitive riding, and the NPD are riding very high in the polls right now.

Two things about your comment:
1. The national polls aren't as relevant as the Quebec polls. The Liberal Party's popularity in the 905 region is not relevant in Papineau. The most recent Ekos poll has Quebec NPD support at 44% contrasted with 16% for the Liberals.
2. Trudeau wasn't a newbie in 2011. He had already won the seat in 2008 and was an established MP. I agree though that he will certainly be even more well known now. He's as star of a candidate as you can get.
 
Three thoughts:
  1. Part of our current problem is a lack of consumption. People are tending to save more than you'd expect, as they expect possible hard times ahead. If you return more money from taxes to taxpayers you're likely to see them save a large portion of it, which isn't optimal.
  2. Lowering income taxes overwhelmingly benefits wealthy people vs poor people, since poor people pay very low or no income tax. Infrastructure spending, especially spending on transit, massively benefits poor people (and all people in society) and is definitely preferable.
  3. There's nothing wrong with governments subsidizing jobs during slowdowns since that's a time when employment is naturally lower anyway. Recessions also tend to have an outsized effect on construction jobs since private sector tends not to invest as much when the outlook is bad, so subsidizing construction jobs makes a lot of sense.

Agreed on the latter two points, but the first point is, I think, incorrect. What little growth Canada had last month was because Canadians aren't saving enough, which, in turn, is why household debt is increasing at a disturbing rate.

This. With all due respect, ksharp, that high school economics class you took is not comprehensive enough to account for the complexities of today's economic world. "Cutting taxes creates more jobs" is oversimplifying big time.

He's citing the Wall Street Journal as his reasoning for being opposed to deficit spending and in favour of tax cuts. I think suggesting he's even taken a high school economic class is vastly overestimating how much he knows what he's talking about.

Reminder that this is a ridiculous rolling 4 week sample of 250 people across the whole country per week.

...yet, somehow, it's more or less in line with what most polls are telling us: that the Liberals have improved (either a little or substantially, depending on who you're looking at), NDP momentum has stalled and/or is falling (apart from that rogue poll from Forum that had them up around 40% -- though I'd take Nanos' credibility over Forum's any day), and the Conservatives are holding on to their base and no one else. I can see the problem with such a small sample, but it's not like his results are that outlandish.

Do you have any articles painting Mulcair in such a light? I'm definitely not as down on Mulcair as you are and language laws and whatnot aren't my main concern.

The Rabble.ca crowd seems to be up-in-arms about Mulcair taking the NDP to the right, though I think most of the people who post there probably consider everything short of a move to a straight-up community revolution a move to the right. For a less crazy left slant, there's The Walrus' Doubting Thomas article that just came out a few days ago.

With the NPD support numbers north of 50% in Quebec is it time to start wondering if Trudeau will be able to keep his seat?

I'm *shocked* that you, of all people would be openly wondering something like that. Shocked!

Gutter_trash's shtick is annoying, but I don't think it warrants mod intervention.

Ignore him or have some fun with him.

I, personally, legit wonder sometimes if g_t's shtick isn't possibly related to some type of OCD behaviour. Reminds me of a non-insane Manabyte a little.

Gutter is kind of a xenophobic nutjob, but I've always attributed that to him not being born here. Immigrants (because I remember him saying he'd immigrated to Canada in the late '80s/early '90s) are often even more fervently supportive of their new countries. And if he came here in the midst of Quebec sovereignty being the biggest issue in the country, it's not too shocking that he'd gravitate strongly to one side or the other.

Oh, and my Vote Compass results:

Vcz617e.jpg

Not too surprising, but I think it overstates the extent to which I agree with the NDP. In addition to the Quebec issues, I'm strongly opposed to their approaches on foreign policy and trade...plus, obviously, I really don't like Mulcair.
 

maharg

idspispopd
...yet, somehow, it's more or less in line with what most polls are telling us: that the Liberals have improved (either a little or substantially, depending on who you're looking at), NDP momentum has stalled and/or is falling (apart from that rogue poll from Forum that had them up around 40% -- though I'd take Nanos' credibility over Forum's any day), and the Conservatives are holding on to their base and no one else. I can see the problem with such a small sample, but it's not like his results are that outlandish.

None of this matters. I'll call out the awful methodology until they change it. It could be aligned with the election results themselves and they'd still not be worth the bits they're transmitting on.

Polls aren't good because they're aligned. They're not good because they meet our expectations. They're good if and only if they're useful. Right now, Nanos isn't.
 

Samyy

Member
My riding shifted from 60% for the conservatives to 67% for the Liberals over the last three weeks!
Looks like almost all of Mississauga is projecting Liberal right now.
 
My riding shifted from 60% for the conservatives to 67% for the Liberals over the last three weeks!
Looks like almost all of Mississauga is projecting Liberal right now.

Don't put too much stock into individual riding projections. They really just don't have enough data to make any meaningful estimate.
 

Samyy

Member
Don't put too much stock into individual riding projections. They really just don't have enough data to make any meaningful estimate.

Right but I'm more looking at the trend, it has been steady shift away from the conservatives each time they updated.

I just want to believe :(
 

Razorskin

----- ------
The Sun can recycle this cover on October 20th.

k7aJQFf.jpg



Don't put too much stock into individual riding projections. They really just don't have enough data to make any meaningful estimate.

I would figure that to be the case, but I still think it's a toss up between Liberal and NDP where I live.
 
Rising national Liberal support (compared to last election) might spoil my riding. It's been redistricted, and if the last election's results were copied with the new boundaries the results would be:

NDP - 45%
CPC - 44%
LPC - 8%
GRN - 1%

Currently it's a Conservative riding, so it's going to be very close, and even a few hundred people choosing Liberal could split the vote enough to elect a new CPC person, which would be annoying.
 
Laurier-Ste-Marie where the devil Gilles Duceppe himself is running.

Devil ? lol please.

Gilles Duceppe might be running a failed party but the man is a very respectable man. He's very professional and in my opinion a better choice than all of the others, that is if he was part of a better party.

The problem with the Bloc Québecois is that it has no reason to exist. As for me, i'd go with NPD probably. Overall, i just want anything other than the Conservatives to win.
 
Devil ? lol please.

Gilles Duceppe might be running a failed party but the man is a very respectable man. He's very professional and in my opinion a better choice than all of the others, that is if he was part of a better party.

The problem with the Bloc Québecois is that it has no reason to exist. As for me, i'd go with NPD probably. Overall, i just want anything other than the Conservatives to win.

If Gille Duceppe was a federalist he'd make a great NDP leader, just as Mulcair would probably make a great Liberal leader. However, Duceppe is only as honest and pragmatic as he is because he knows he could never attain any real power. Once you start running for government you stop being so forthright.
 
I can't remember if this was posted last week, but this was their response to Trudeau's infrastructure spending announcement:

As far as I'm concerned, the very fact the Sun is so angry about it means it must be a good policy.
 

Pedrito

Member
Ben Mulroney was very upset about it, his dad Brian is on the board of directors of Quebecor (which owned Sun News Media) and they decided to pull the plug on the Cable channel then later sold off Sun news papers to someone else

Why would Ben Mulroney, an employee of Bell Media, be very upset that a channel owned by Quebecor folded? Because his father is on the board of Quebecor? Does he even have shares in the company. Did he tell you personnaly that he was very upset? Was he crying? Why am I talking about Ben Mulroney? So many questions!
 

fallout

Member
Why would Ben Mulroney, an employee of Bell Media, be very upset that a channel owned by Quebecor folded? Because his father is on the board of Quebecor? Does he even have shares in the company. Did he tell you personnaly that he was very upset? Was he crying? Why am I talking about Ben Mulroney? So many questions!
Justin Trudeau will be Prime Minister this October. Book it.
 

Brandson

Member
According to Votecompass, I'm 58% NDP, 51% Liberal, 43% Conservative, 41% Green here (just a bit in the NW part of the graph). That explains why I'm having a hard time deciding who to vote for. My riding in Toronto voted Liberal last time, and pretty much every time before that, but for some reason the riding boundaries changed after the last vote, and we became represented by a Conservative guy. It's hard to tell whether Liberal or NDP will have more support this time. I wish we had ranked ballots.
 

maharg

idspispopd
According to Votecompass, I'm 58% NDP, 51% Liberal, 43% Conservative, 41% Green here (just a bit in the NW part of the graph). That explains why I'm having a hard time deciding who to vote for. My riding in Toronto voted Liberal last time, and pretty much every time before that, but for some reason the riding boundaries changed after the last vote, and we became represented by a Conservative guy. It's hard to tell whether Liberal or NDP will have more support this time. I wish we had ranked ballots.

You're actually still represented by your liberal MP. Or were until the writ was dropped. Now you're not really represented by anyone at all until the election results are official.

The redistricting doesn't apply until the first general election after the new boundaries are decided. And the boundaries change every 10 years, after the census, to take into account changes in population and demographic distribution.
 
NDP is slipping big time. Hopefully that continues.

What are you basing this on? The Nanos poll? Because it actually has them up from last week. They have been stable in pretty much all polls over the last month. The variation in specific % is based on the sampling of each poll provider.
 

Prax

Member
The Scarborough Center I am voting in used to have a very Liberal turnout, but the recent Harper years managed to eke it out into a Conservative riding, but it seems like it will flip back to Liberal.

So I guess I'll be voting Liberal for sure, and my husband is thinking of voting for NDP.
Either way, the Conservatives are likely to lose my riding, so good! :>
 
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