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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015

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maharg

idspispopd
Looking at the poll tracker:

Angus Reid, polling 8/19-8/24: NDP at 37
Forum, 8/23-8/24: NDP at 40
Nanos/CTV, 8/2-8/28: NDP at 30.8
Innovative/Hill Times, 8/24-8/26: NDP at 32

Or going back to July:

Mainstreet/Postmedia, 7/20-7/21: CPC at 38
Forum/Toronto Star, 7/19-7/20: CPC at 28
EKOS/iPolitics, 7/22-7/28: CPC at 30.1

Apologies for saying there are 10 point spreads. I should've said there are 9.2 spreads.

Well, first of all exclude Nanos. :p

You'd have to cite more examples to demonstrate that this is a regular occurrence, though. There are obviously always outliers, but it's still pretty obvious where the general trend is. The Forum and to a lesser extent Angus Reid polls are partly on a weekend, for example, and basically every other poll around that time was showing in the 30-34 range, which is about the range of most of these polls' MOE anyways.

I think the Mainstreet poll for the CPC was their first federally, no? And they'd done some really weird shit with their likely voter modelling which they corrected for the next time. In particular, when comparing those three you're comparing a poll of likely voters with two polls of eligible voters.

These are problems, and they stem from the things we've *both* talked about being bad about Canadian polling, but they're not so disastrously common that you can't say anything about what people think in general.

Honestly, since Layton died, I don't even know why you guys have an NDP. The NDP has seemed to have abandoned a lot of the core principles that made it an attractive alternative to the liberals. Momentum is in their favor though.

So, to be clear because a lot of people don't seem to realize this: Layton is the one who started the NDP's move toward the centre, and it's that move towards the centre that's at the core of their current success. IMO they could go a lot farther towards the centre and still be better from a social democratic perspective than any other party in Canada.
 
lol I was literally just about quote the exact same thing. Yes this absolutely this puts that question to bed. And no Mulcair still probably doesn't need to worry as he won with 55% of the vote last election.

This is why we badly need more by riding polling in Canada. Yesterday I was spitballing based on Provincial polling numbers, and implored someone from Papineau to jump in and provide the local details, and today we see that the situation on the ground in Montreal is indeed actually vastly different from the Provincial case.

Similarly we've gotten a few hints that although the Green's are doing very low numbers Nationally and a bit better in BC but still low, Vancouver Island is heavily leaning Green and this may be a big spoiler to the NDP's hopes of gaining more seats in BC.

There's just not the money to do that. Parties can do it to a certain extent, because they have vested interests in getting those numbers right, but beyond that, it would be incredibly expensive and time-consuming to do riding-by-riding polls. It would be great from an analysis and prediction perspective, but I think most media outlets are happy with the way it is -- they're not suddenly going to become more demanding of the regular streams of content they're getting.

Also, unrelated, but I want to apologize if it comes off like I'm picking on you. I'm really not intending to -- something about Mulcair just makes me incredibly snarky and annoyed, and sets me off. I've had to bite my tongue when my mother-in-law shares his posts on Facebook. I honestly don't think I've ever had such a visceral dislike to a politician. Regardless, that's not an excuse if you feel like I'm attacking you, so I'm sorry.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
As an American, I have no horse in this race other than I will be looking for jobs in Canada when I finish my PhD. Going by Mulcair and Trudeau's positions, I would prefer it if you guys got Trudeau for your next PM but that doesn't look like it will happen. It's either Harper or Mulcair and your guys' ridiculous multiparty first-past-the-post electoral system will destroy you. So, my suggestion to you guys is to elect Mulcair as PM with enough liberals to keep up the pressure for the NDP to enact electoral reform and both parties pushing each other left. If the NDP gets an outright majority, electoral reform might become a lower priority to them.

Honestly, since Layton died, I don't even know why you guys have an NDP. The NDP has seemed to have abandoned a lot of the core principles that made it an attractive alternative to the liberals. Momentum is in their favor though.

The infighting the Canadian left is having is strangling you guys. In no functional democracy would Harper be prime minister today or even have a chance at remaining so this October.

Yes FPTP is absurd and I agree with your suggestion. Canada badly needs PR, which is one of the main reasons I support the NDP this election as they are the most up front with their support for switching to PR.

I'm not sure how long you've been in Canada so forgive me if you know all this. The NDP as it currently exists is largely a continuation of the path Layton set it on. For most of its history the NDP was a pro-union, working class party that did well in rural areas that were ignored by Canada's elites. Jack Layton was a Toronto City Councillor and when he took over the party he transformed it into a party for city dwellers that focused on issues effecting those that live in the dense core of our cities. The movement toward the mainstream centre started under Layton.

Mulcair was by far the most centrist of all members seeking leadership, but he was elected because he was Layton's top guy in Quebec, and the NDP membership wanted to continue in Layton's path toward the centre. The NDP were now the official opposition and they sensed they had a real opportunity to defeat Harper.

For all the movement toward the centre the NDP remains a very left wing party and I'm personally a bit baffled by newspaper articles that suggest that the Liberal party is running "to the left" of the NDP in this election. For example, this election the NDP is promising a $15 a day universal national childcare plan. This sort of big new government program promise is classic NDP and in my opinion it's the most left wing policy promise out there.

You're wondering why we have an NDP, why we have multiple left wing parties, but you're making the mistake of lumping the Liberals in with the Canadian left. They are a left wing party, but there's more to it than that. The Liberal party is a big tent party with significant support on the right of centre side of the spectrum. The historical reason for the NDP existing is because the Liberal Party has often not been left wing enough for many people. At the moment the Liberal Party appears very left wing, with their promises right now being some of the most left wing promises I've ever seen from them, but Canadians will remember when the Liberals governed in the 90s, had many austerity budgets, and were a much more centrist party.

I like having both the Liberal Party and NDP around, as having both parties offers a greater amount of different viewpoints for the electorate, but returning to your main point, it does only makes sense to have multiple parties in a Proportional Representation system. Ideally we'd have a Parliament with strong representation from both these parties and the Greens, and they'd work together.
 
As an American, I have no horse in this race other than I will be looking for jobs in Canada when I finish my PhD. Going by Mulcair and Trudeau's positions, I would prefer it if you guys got Trudeau for your next PM but that doesn't look like it will happen. It's either Harper or Mulcair and your guys' ridiculous multiparty first-past-the-post electoral system will destroy you. So, my suggestion to you guys is to elect Mulcair as PM with enough liberals to keep up the pressure for the NDP to enact electoral reform and both parties pushing each other left. If the NDP gets an outright majority, electoral reform might become a lower priority to them.

Honestly, since Layton died, I don't even know why you guys have an NDP. The NDP has seemed to have abandoned a lot of the core principles that made it an attractive alternative to the liberals. Momentum is in their favor though.

The infighting the Canadian left is having is strangling you guys. In no functional democracy would Harper be prime minister today or even have a chance at remaining so this October.

Once you have 2 parties then both are viewed as equal by the public. Look at the US with the DNC and GOP. When you poll people on issues only, a large majority agrees with the DNC. But when you poll them on parties, it's usually around 50/50 plus or minus a few points. So yeah if the LPC and NDP merged you'd think they'd get 65%+ of the vote forever, but that's not how a 2-party system works in reality.
 
You dislike Mulcair more than Harper?

Honestly? Yes. I don't think I agree with Harper on a single issue, and I'm still a little bitter about the way the Reform Party managed to take over the PC Party and left me politically homeless for awhile. Despite all that, though, I still dislike Mulcair even more. Every time he comes on TV (which is a lot for me, since I have to watch Newsworld all day at work), I want to throw my remote through the screen.

Once you have 2 parties then both are viewed as equal by the public. Look at the US with the DNC and GOP. When you poll people on issues only, a large majority agrees with the DNC. But when you poll them on parties, it's usually around 50/50 plus or minus a few points. So yeah if the LPC and NDP merged you'd think they'd get 65%+ of the vote forever, but that's not how a 2-party system works in reality.

Pretty much. People made a similar mistake with the Progressive Conservative & Reform Parties -- it took a few elections and a massive scandal to get the CPC vote on the same level as those two parties' combined vote shares. It's not a 1:1 thing.

For all the movement toward the centre the NDP remains a very left wing party and I'm personally a bit baffled by newspaper articles that suggest that the Liberal party is running "to the left" of the NDP in this election. For example, this election the NDP is promising a $15 a day universal national childcare plan. This sort of big new government program promise is classic NDP and in my opinion it's the most left wing policy promise out there.

You're wondering why we have an NDP, why we have multiple left wing parties, but you're making the mistake of lumping the Liberals in with the Canadian left. They are a left wing party, but there's more to it than that. The Liberal party is a big tent party with significant support on the right of centre side of the spectrum. The historical reason for the NDP existing is because the Liberal Party has often not been left wing enough for many people. At the moment the Liberal Party appears very left wing, with their promises right now being some of the most left wing promises I've ever seen from them, but Canadians will remember when the Liberals governed in the 90s, had many austerity budgets, and were a much more centrist party.

I like having both the Liberal Party and NDP around, as having both parties offers a greater amount of different viewpoints for the electorate, but returning to your main point, it does only makes sense to have multiple parties in a Proportional Representation system. Ideally we'd have a Parliament with strong representation from both these parties and the Greens, and they'd work together.

*fights urge to point out you wished for the Liberal Party to vanish not-too-long ago*

It's kind of bizarre that one of the major debates in this election so far is between the Liberals and the NDP about deficit spending vs. balanced budgets, with the two parties on the sides they've taken. When Thomas Mulcair is writing columns in the Sun, you know things have gotten really weird, really quickly.
 

Azih

Member
Honestly? Yes. I don't think I agree with Harper on a single issue, and I'm still a little bitter about the way the Reform Party managed to take over the PC Party and left me politically homeless for awhile. Despite all that, though, I still dislike Mulcair even more. Every time he comes on TV (which is a lot for me, since I have to watch Newsworld all day at work), he want to throw my remote through the screen.
Wow. Oh well.
 
Wow. Oh well.
I saw Tom and Jack speak one after the other live.
You could tell a big difference between ''realness'' between the two

Tom has that lawyer movement, voice and mannerism and tells you want you want to hear without really believing in his own words. While Jack was just real, spoke real, moved real, looked real.

Since the start of this campaign, the NDP advisers have given him smiling make-over telling him to smile in every photo to erase the angry-Tom image. Now it's just smiling Tom with fake smiles.
 

I don't live in Canada. I grew up in Seattle where I frequently watched CBC and Kids in the Hall reruns on Comedy Central. A lot of my close friends are Canadian and I go up there pretty much once a year. Montreal and Vancouver are two of my favorite cities and Seattle's going to hell so when I finish up my degree in May I was hoping to be able to make one of those two my home. That said, I follow your politics when elections are happening and when Republicans scare me. The USA is hopeless so I like to latch on to Canadian politics where things are a bit saner.

Thanks for the explanation of the NDP's trajectory. I've admired that party for a while and their move to the center has seemed baffling to me. It makes sense that in modern elections the path to victory for the left is through the city but why be concerned with deficits. It seems that the NDP is moving to the center and the Liberals to the left. Clearly the NDP is still to the left but I wish they were still a "socialist" party.

Welfare programs are nice but public works and organizing workers and cooperatives would be more effective ways to lift the nation in my opinion. It will be pretty cool if the NDP can do with childcare what they did with healthcare. If I had a vote, I'd probably vote ABC but it'd be pretty difficult for me to decide which party to back publicly. I am strongly in favor of electoral reform but I also think promises of a balanced budget are a bit of a joke. Then again, the Liberals voted for C-51 which would probably disqualify them for me.

I don't envy you guys.

My hope is that the NDP are elected, reform the electoral system and stick to their balanced budget pledge as well as Harper has. Just keep the country out of Harpers hands so when I start looking for jobs soon I still want to consider Canada.

Once you have 2 parties then both are viewed as equal by the public. Look at the US with the DNC and GOP. When you poll people on issues only, a large majority agrees with the DNC. But when you poll them on parties, it's usually around 50/50 plus or minus a few points. So yeah if the LPC and NDP merged you'd think they'd get 65%+ of the vote forever, but that's not how a 2-party system works in reality.

My issue with the NDP/Liberals isn't necessarily that it exists but that it's moving to the center which seems to be undermining its position as a separate choice from the Liberals. In this election, they both seem nearly as left as each other but with different priorities. The NDP are losing the distinguinshing features (their socialism) that made them attractive alternative. Ideally there would be lots of parties with varying ideas with an electoral system that was viable in that situation. A healthy democracy should have room for all ideas.

I think the problem with US politics isn't necessarily that they are viewed as equal. It isn't even 50/50 here. In 2012, the Democrats got 1.37 million more votes for their congressional candidates than Republicans and still lost the House. The distribution of votes is completely broken. That combined with leadership that is firmly neoliberal and pro-wealthy, it's almost pointless to vote, especially in the midterms. I've lived in a couple states and several congressional districts and have never lived in one that was competitive.

Canada doesn't have the same gerrymandering problem. The problem Canada has is two strong left-wing parties vs one right-wing party. There are arguments to be made that vote splitting gave Harper the majority in the last election.
 

Azih

Member
I saw Tom and Jack speak one after the other live.
You could tell a big difference between ''realness'' between the two

Tom has that lawyer movement, voice and mannerism and tells you want you want to hear without really believing in his own words. While Jack was just real, spoke real, moved real, looked real.

Since the start of this campaign, the NDP advisers have given him smiling make-over telling him to smile in every photo to erase the angry-Tom image. Now it's just smiling Tom with fake smiles.

I get not liking Mulcair. Disliking him more than Harper is what's blowing my mind.
 
I get not liking Mulcair. Disliking him more than Harper is what's blowing my mind.

I dislike Harper for his policies, his stance and his shrewdness against his opponents

but Harper doesn't pretend to be something that he is not. I know where he stands, and that helps me make my decision clearly to not vote for him

Justin is Justin, Canada grew up with him, he grew up with Canada. We know who he is.

You guys, outside of Quebec don't know Mulcair. You think you do but you really don't
 

Azih

Member
There are arguments to be made that vote splitting gave Harper the majority in the last election.
It's not an argument. It's a fact. He got his majority based on 39% of the vote. It's bonkers.

gutter_trash said:
You guys, outside of Quebec don't know Mulcair. You think you do but you really don't
Considering Quebec is most strongly pro Mulcair I guess if I did really know Mulcair like Quebeckers do I'd like him even more?

Look to be honest I am STILL devastated that Jack Layton died. What he achieved in the time he had was historical but he deserved far more and Mulcair is a poor substitute. But on the policy of my vote actually mattering (A policy I am strongly in favour of) Mulcair is right and Trudeau is not. And Mulcair is the one who's devastated the BQ since he entered federal politics, not Trudeau, so I fail to see how he isn't better on the policy that you seem to care about the most.
 
I dislike Harper for his policies, his stance and his shrewdness against his opponents

but Harper doesn't pretend to be something that he is not. I know where he stands, and that helps me make my decision clearly to not vote for him

Justin is Justin, Canada grew up with him, he grew up with Canada. We know who he is.

You guys, outside of Quebec don't know Mulcair. You think you do but you really don't

Yes we do know who Trudeau is, but that doesn't mean he's best for the job. We also know who Mulcair is based on his government record. Mulcair and Harper are both much better qualified for the management job of PM compared to Trudeau, in terms of both experience and education. Trudeau's not a bad guy though, but that doesn't make him the best choice for PM.

And how sure are you that you know him? As one example, he voted for C-51 and then later said it was because it would be political fodder against him if he didn't, but then later said he was naive. So which was it? He's a politician like anyone else, and he obscures the truth where necessary.

None of them are pure-hearted heroes of Canada, they are all serving their own interests. What matters is what policy they would bring in, realistically.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Thanks for the explanation of the NDP's trajectory. I've admired that party for a while and their move to the center has seemed baffling to me. It makes sense that in modern elections the path to victory for the left is through the city but why be concerned with deficits. It seems that the NDP is moving to the center and the Liberals to the left. Clearly the NDP is still to the left but I wish they were still a "socialist" party.

The NDP has always been anti-deficit actually. At least as long as I've been paying attention. Their record in power in provincial governments is one of always attempting to balance budgets, bad times or good (though most of their time in power has been in bad times).

What you may not realize is that the NDP (like the Reform party that spawned the current CPC) is also a populist party, and those are almost always very in favour of treating public finance the same as personal finance because that resonates with voters.

Basically: Socialist != Keynesian.
 
I get not liking Mulcair. Disliking him more than Harper is what's blowing my mind.

Look to be honest I am STILL devastated that Jack Layton died. What he achieved in the time he had was historical but he deserved far more and Mulcair is a poor substitute. But on the policy of my vote actually mattering (A policy I am strongly in favour of) Mulcair is right and Trudeau is not. And Mulcair is the one who's devastated the BQ since he entered federal politics, not Trudeau, so I fail to see how he isn't better on the policy that you seem to care about the most.

Is it a bad time to mention I disliked Layton, too? Not as much as I loathe Mulcair, obviously, but I just found him a little too phony for my liking. Stuff like this and hashtag fail always rubbed me the wrong way.

That said, he was a lot more genuine -- in his attitude (to an extent) and his beliefs (for the most part, as long as you don't mention the whole subsidized housing thing) -- than Mulcair, so if I had to choose one or the other, I'd take Layton.

And speaking of phony: Conservative stock photo fun: Today's edition, Colombian salt miners

Between this and that whole kerfuffle about using an Atlantic salmon on an ad talking about BC fisheries, whoever is in charge of sourcing the CPC's stock photography really isn't trying very hard at their job.
 
... Those are your beefs with Layton? In comparison to Harper, who has to keep cats in his pockets at all times? Yeesh.

I'm not saying I disliked Layton more than Harper. If I'm ranking recent Canadian politicians in order of how much I dislike them, it would go something like:

Mulcair
(Massive gap that probably includes Harper underlings like Poilievre, Kenney, etc.)
Harper
Martin
Layton
 

Tiktaalik

Member
*fights urge to point out you wished for the Liberal Party to vanish not-too-long ago*

To clarify my position here it's different depending on whether we have a FPTP system or PR system.

In a PR system I don't want the Liberal Party to vanish and the more parties the better. In the end they all have to work together to pass legislation. However, having Canada move to PR is one of my top desires, so in the short term, I want the Liberal Party to do poorly in this upcoming election because they seem more obstructionist toward PR in compared to the NDP's crystal clear position on the matter. For the NDP to successfully move Canada to PR they need to win at least a minority government. If the Liberal Party does very well in this election that would become less likely.

A FPTP system is dysfunctional in either the two party or multi-party state, but I think it's much more so in the multi-party state, as parties on one side can continuously split the vote. The splitting of the vote can create weird scenarios where parties win huge amounts of seats out of balance of their actual support. We've seen this again and again in Canada. If we are to stick with FPTP I think we should move to a two party system. Again, this is undesirable, but I think it's better than what we have now, which is endless vote splitting and Conservative rule. Obviously if we're going to move to a two party system either the Liberals or NDP have to go away, and I'd prefer the NDP as they're more aligned with my views. Likely though in a two party scenario both parties would move to the centre and be totally different compared to whatever party they spawned from.
 

Azih

Member
Duude. You're bringing up the subsidized housing thing? Layton and Chow were in a market value unit that was helping to subsidize the low income units in the co-op. Are you going to bring up the massage too?
 
I'm not saying I disliked Layton more than Harper. If I'm ranking recent Canadian politicians in order of how much I dislike them, it would go something like:

Mulcair
(Massive gap that probably includes Harper underlings like Poilievre, Kenney, etc.)
Harper
Martin
Layton

I'm just saying, it's a really weak reason to dislike a candidate. It's... socializing. Trying to appeal to public, sure... but it's just so insignificant and done by everyone.

Like I don't dislike Harper for cat porn, I just laugh at it.
 
Duude. You're bringing up the subsidized housing thing? Layton and Chow were in a market value unit that was helping to subsidize the low income units in the co-op. Are you going to bring up the massage too?

Well now that you mention it... ;)

Seriously, though, I meant to say that for the most part, I don't doubt his was sincere in his beliefs. There were some contradictions in there, but the same could be said for most people -- in contrast to, say, someone like Mulcair, who seems to me to be a shameless opportunist.
 
Crop did a poll for my riding of Laurier-Ville-Marie commisionned by the NDP:

Hélène Laverdiere (NDP): 57%
Gilles Duceppe (hahahaha): 20%
Christine Poirier (LPC): 15%
Green person: 4%
Conservative thing: buh buh buh 2%

I saw Gilles Duceppe tears in 2011 on tv, will be happy to see more Duceppe tears again

I may dislike Mulcair but I respect Hélène Laverdiere a big deal, she is a smart person who is strong on foreign affairs and she is a nice lady.

But I will vote for Christine Poirier regardless because she also is a good person
 

RevoDS

Junior Member
Crop did a poll for my riding of Laurier-Ville-Marie commisionned by the NDP:

Hélène Laverdiere (NDP): 57%
Gilles Duceppe (hahahaha): 20%
Christine Poirier (LPC): 15%
Green person: 4%
Conservative thing: buh buh buh 2%

I saw Gilles Duceppe tears in 2011 on tv, will be happy to see more Duceppe tears again

I may dislike Mulcair but I respect Hélène Laverdiere a big deal, she is a smart person who is strong on foreign affairs and she is a nice lady.

But I will vote for Christine Poirier regardless because she also is a good person

The only tears I foresee this year are Harper's
-Trudeau's performance should be massively better than last election's. That's a good thing, he'll be happy no matter what.
-Mulcair doesn't have much to lose, he's tracking to form the government and even if he doesn't, he'd have to fail massively for him to actually cry I think.
-I don't think Duceppe actually believed he'd win this election, and he probably doesn't care that much. He saw the polls saying he'd do better than Beaulieu, and tried to reignite the thing from its ashes. It failed, boohoo, he'll just go back to making thousands writing and making speeches. He probably half-expected not to win his own seat.
-Harper stands to lose the most. If he isn't reelected as Prime Minister, after having the job for 10 years? Now I expect tears...and a resignation.

If Harper still forms the govenment with numbers similar to what they are right now, no tears at all on election night.
 
real talk, which candidate is gonna bring the prices of new video games back down?

semi serious

The Conservatives floated a proposal back at the beginning of the year to mandate price parity, but a) that was before the dollar tanked, and b) there's no way it could've been enforced. Like, what were they going to do, fine/punish US companies that adjusted their prices to make up for the low dollar? It's a good thing they backed off, or it would've been a disaster.
 

BY2K

Membero Americo
Just read an article in a newspaper about Harper...

He really REALLY doesn't want to say "recession", does he? He's acting almost delusional about it.

"Canadian economy went up in June! Canadian economy went up in June!"
 

Spl1nter

Member
I am not sure if the super long writ period is good or bad. There is so much to do but I fear people are going to burn out as we have not kicked into high gear and are already on 10 hours days minimum.
 

IceIpor

Member
God damn it. Why can't Justin be the NDP leader? Mulcair is making it harder to vote for him, but his party is generally where I'm aligned...Trudeau is saying all the right things lately....

If it was Layton, we'd have a pretty close race in charisma between the two.
 
I am not sure if the super long writ period is good or bad. There is so much to do but I fear people are going to burn out as we have not kicked into high gear and are already on 10 hours days minimum.

the one it does thing is make people lose interest, I have lessened my quest for news since it has been spread out thin and got bored already of the long campain
 


Paul Dewar looked like he was ready for another face palm.

o-PAUL-CALANDRA-PAUL-DEWAR-facebook.jpg
 
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