Looking at the poll tracker:
Angus Reid, polling 8/19-8/24: NDP at 37
Forum, 8/23-8/24: NDP at 40
Nanos/CTV, 8/2-8/28: NDP at 30.8
Innovative/Hill Times, 8/24-8/26: NDP at 32
Or going back to July:
Mainstreet/Postmedia, 7/20-7/21: CPC at 38
Forum/Toronto Star, 7/19-7/20: CPC at 28
EKOS/iPolitics, 7/22-7/28: CPC at 30.1
Apologies for saying there are 10 point spreads. I should've said there are 9.2 spreads.
Well, first of all exclude Nanos.
You'd have to cite more examples to demonstrate that this is a regular occurrence, though. There are obviously always outliers, but it's still pretty obvious where the general trend is. The Forum and to a lesser extent Angus Reid polls are partly on a weekend, for example, and basically every other poll around that time was showing in the 30-34 range, which is about the range of most of these polls' MOE anyways.
I think the Mainstreet poll for the CPC was their first federally, no? And they'd done some really weird shit with their likely voter modelling which they corrected for the next time. In particular, when comparing those three you're comparing a poll of likely voters with two polls of eligible voters.
These are problems, and they stem from the things we've *both* talked about being bad about Canadian polling, but they're not so disastrously common that you can't say anything about what people think in general.
Honestly, since Layton died, I don't even know why you guys have an NDP. The NDP has seemed to have abandoned a lot of the core principles that made it an attractive alternative to the liberals. Momentum is in their favor though.
So, to be clear because a lot of people don't seem to realize this: Layton is the one who started the NDP's move toward the centre, and it's that move towards the centre that's at the core of their current success. IMO they could go a lot farther towards the centre and still be better from a social democratic perspective than any other party in Canada.