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CFB Week 12: the Valley Shook, the Plains Ran Dry, and Sparty Clempsoned

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Draxal

Member
tOSU needs a lot of help to pull into the top 4 because its schedule is so garbage.

Michigan State's the first ranked team it played all season. Minnesota's the only other regular season team on its schedule that has a chance of being ranked by the end of the season. Compare that to the teams around it with one loss, and they all have at least three victories against ranked teams, while the Buckeyes have feasted on Navy, Kent State, Cincy, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and Illinois.

It's not the Buckeyes fault that the B1G is so garbage right now, but it affects the team's resume compared to other 1-loss teams.

They're going to roll into selection time, best case, having beaten two ranked teams in Michigan State and Nebraska.

They're going to have trouble getting into the playoffs (although I do hold the B12's lack of championship game against them). I see them falling behind the p12 champ (if one loss), FSU (even with one loss); and Sec Champ (if one loss or less).

I just think tOSU is a pretty damn amazing team this year; but they got screwed by the xovers and ooc schedule (losing to a vtech team that later got decimated with injuries) this year.
 

jjasper

Member
ASU has a great resume. Their eye test isn't perfect and their loss is troubling but they've got great wins.


ASU blew out Notre Dame at home
UCLA blew out ASU on the road
Oregon blew out UCLA on the road


I think this is big, actually. I don't really know that Oregon should be #2 over FSU but it's a bit irrelevant at the moment. The respect is cool.



If all the non-SEC teams win out I would expect the following:


1. SEC
2. FSU
3. Oregon
4. Baylor
5. TCU
6. Ohio State
7. SEC
8. ASU
9. SEC
10. SEC

At this point if Oregon wins out and beats a 1 loss ASU or hell even a 2 loss UCLA in the championship game it is probably more likely they end up #1 overall than behind FSU.
 

Kevtones

Member
At this point if Oregon wins out and beats a 1 loss ASU or hell even a 2 loss UCLA in the championship game it is probably more likely they end up #1 overall than behind FSU.


Very possible. I think the Florida game is going to be the great exploder, personally.



I was taken aback that Oregon was #2 this week. Ducks have the respect which means they'll lose to Colorado on a blocked punt return.
 
I think the committee is considering that ASU had a QB that was starting his first game.

a reporter in Arizona did an article today and Jeff Long stated just that. It helps ASU that it was early in the season and the defense has really gotten better and Berco was startingh is first CFB game ever on a Thursday night which is hard to do (granted we stayed played like absolute garbage).

Here is what Jeff Long said about ASU:

"They've got two Top 25 wins, and then they have two additional really quality wins against USC and at Washington, so that certainly factored into their body of work,'' Long said of ASU. "And yes, (the loss to) UCLA, our No. 11 team, it was without their quarterback (Kelly). That was a factor in our determination of how strong we feel Arizona State is at this time

and as others have said, any team in the top 6 right now that wins out is in the college football playoff. I think Ohio St is too far behind to get in unless crazy stuff happens in front of them.

Also, I don't think the seeding in the top 4 really matters, just if you are in the top 4.

at the beginning of the year, I would have been happy with 8 wins (and especially so after the UCLA game) and now ASU is #6... Man I love College Football.
 

cashman

Banned
Are we really going to disregard head-to-head based on the strength of Minnesota versus Buffalo?

Well it is a pretty significant difference in team strength, and the fact that I think TCU got jobbed on the road against Baylor is why I'm personally willing to disregard the h2h.
 
Well it is a pretty significant difference in team strength, and the fact that I think TCU got jobbed on the road against Baylor is why I'm personally willing to disregard the h2h.

Jeff Long stated that h2h only matters when it's close, and they don't think its close between TCU and Baylor because Baylor played the worst out of conference schedule in the country, AND Baylor has only played one ranked team as opposed to TCU's 3.
 

ulua

Member
Not that I assume anyone of us is going to go to the Miss State/Alabama game this weekend, but if you are, and your coming from the direction of Birmingham towards Tuscaloosa, I feel for you. Road work on one of the bridges has caused massive traffic accidents almost every day. Including one today that started around 6 am this morning, and still backed up 10-15 miles 9 hours later.

Gameday traffic + Road Work + 100's of 18 wheeler's = Bring water and food, enough supplies to last a day or 2.


highway 20 on gameday is the worst. ESPECIALLY when they make you get off all the way up by mercedes dr and take the back road.with roadwork its going to be absolutely insane. i remember back in the early 2000s when they were doing construction on that part of 20 and it was insane even without gameday traffic.
 
Tentative playoff prediction:

1. Alabama
2. Arizona State
3. Georgia
4. Mississippi State

Search in your heart, you know this will happen.

Bama wins out. Mississippi State's only loss is to Bama. Georgia wins the SEC championship game. Bam, 3 SEC teams.
 

ulua

Member
Tentative playoff prediction:

1. Alabama
2. Arizona State
3. Georgia
4. Mississippi State

Search in your heart, you know this will happen.

Bama wins out. Mississippi State's only loss is to Bama. Georgia wins the SEC championship game. Bam, 3 SEC teams.

who does florida state lose to?
 

ulua

Member
haha, i can imagine already how pissed everyone would be if a 2 loss SEC team got in over an undefeated FSU/reigning national champion
 
Updated from my post last week:

NC State 5-5 (Wake Forest, @UNC) 1 win needed
UNC 4-5 (Pitt, @Duke, NC State) 2 wins needed
Virginia 4-6 (Miami, @VTech) 2 wins needed
Pittsburgh 4-5 (@UNC, Syracuse, @Miami) 2 wins needed
Va Tech 4-5 (@Duke, @WF, Virginia) 2 wins needed

Big 12
Ok. State 5-4 (Texas, @Baylor, @Oklahoma) 1 win needed
Texas 5-5 (@Ok State, TCU) 1 win needed

B1G
Rutgers 5-4 (Indiana, @ MSU, @Maryland) 1 win needed
Pedo State 5-4 (Temple, @Illinois, MSU) 1 win needed
Michigan 5-5 ( Maryland, @tOSU) 1 win needed
Illinois 4-5 (Iowa, Pedo State, @NW) 2 wins needed

Pac 12
UW 6-4 (@Zona, OSU, @Wazzu) 1 win needed
Stanford 5-4 (Utah, @Cal, @UCLA) 1 win needed
Cal 5-4 (@USC, Stanford, BYU) 1 win needed
Oregon State 4-5 (ASU, @UW, Oregon) 2 wins needed

SEC
Florida 5-3 (SCAR, E Kentucky, @FSU) 1 win needed
Kentucky 5-5 (@Tennessee, @Louisville) 1 win needed
SCAR 4-5 (@Florida, South Alabama, @Clempson) 2 wins needed
Tennessee 4-5 (Kentucky, Missouri, @Vandy) 2 wins needed
 

andycapps

Member
Tentative playoff prediction:

1. Alabama
2. Arizona State
3. Georgia
4. Mississippi State

Search in your heart, you know this will happen.

Bama wins out. Mississippi State's only loss is to Bama. Georgia wins the SEC championship game. Bam, 3 SEC teams.

As much as I would love this, would you have Bama being the team that loses to Georgia in the SECCG or does Bama back into it by not winning their division and avoiding the loss in the SECCG? I'm confused.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
Jeff Long stated that h2h only matters when it's close, and they don't think its close between TCU and Baylor because Baylor played the worst out of conference schedule in the country, AND Baylor has only played one ranked team as opposed to TCU's 3.

By the end of the season the schedule comparison is going to be a lot closer than people consider it to be at this point, as KSU will be added to BU's schedule and Minnesota likely won't be ranked.

Minnesota is clearly a better team than Buffalo, but not better enough to make me forget that TCU blew a 21 point 4th quarter lead in the head to head.
 

Draxal

Member
By the end of the season the schedule comparison is going to be a lot closer than people consider it to be at this point, as KSU will be added to BU's schedule and Minnesota likely won't be ranked.

Minnesota is clearly a better team than Buffalo, but not better enough to make me forget that TCU blew a 21 point 4th quarter lead in the head to head.

Game was at Baylor, which is enough for me to cross it off. I'd have TCU over Baylor. Where I'm struggling is TCU over tOSU. FSU should also be ranked over Oregon, yes ACC is weak, but FSU has one of the best OOC schedules.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
Game was at Baylor, which is enough for me to cross it off.

I don't care if it was on the moon, 21 points is 21 points.

Of course, I'm also a documented proponent of the idea that you should have to win your conference to even get consideration (and think that rule should have been in place for the BCS era), and the BU/TCU head-to-head was not only a blown 21 point 4th quarter lead, it was a blown 21 point 4th quarter lead that will likely cost TCU the Big XII trophy.
 
That's a pretty unsexy top 4. Bet the TV execs don't like that. Do any of those teams travel well? Maybe Oregon since they're on the west coast and TCU if they played in the Cotton Bowl.

It'd be a pretty bad thing if there were empty sections of the first playoff games. I know they'd fill the seats any way they could but still

TCU travels well, much better than Baylor, miss st and prob fsu

I don't care if it was on the moon, 21 points is 21 points.

Of course, I'm also a documented proponent of the idea that you should have to win your conference to even get consideration (and think that rule should have been in place for the BCS era), and the BU/TCU head-to-head was not only a blown 21 point 4th quarter lead, it was a blown 21 point 4th quarter lead that will likely cost TCU the Big XII trophy.
Big 12 said that if both teams win out they are co-champs
 
I tanked in the pick 'em again last week. Only got 6 games right with 1 MoV bonus.

GAF Pick'em Week 12 Games

(THU) ECU @ Cincinnati by 6
Clemson @ Georgia Tech by 6
Virginia Tech @ Duke by 7
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina by 4
Mississippi State @ Alabama by 4 I want to believe
Nebraska @ Wisconsin by 6
Washington @ Arizona by 10
Utah @ Stanford by 4
Auburn @ Georgia by 4
Texas @ Oklahoma State by 4
Florida State @ Miami by 4
LSU @ Arkansas by 6
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
Big 12 said that if both teams win out they are co-champs

How do you spend a year promoting a "one true champion" marketing campaign, touting the fact that it's the only major conference where everybody plays everybody, and then just throw away the most standard tie-breaking procedure used since the dawn of human competition to name co-champions instead?

Oh, right, Big XII Administration.
 

andycapps

Member
TCU has no business being in the playoffs when they gave up 58 points to Baylor. Even if they did make it, I don't see a team with such a horrible defense winning a championship.
 
TCU has no business being in the playoffs when they gave up 58 points to Baylor. Even if they did make it, I don't see a team with such a horrible defense winning a championship.

Every team has choked or will choke by the end of the season. FSU and Mississippi State will probably lose this weekend. Ohio State and Oregon should theoretically be undefeated. In short, the better team doesn't always win. TCU's loss is forgivable, especially since they dominated most of the game.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
TCU has no business being in the playoffs when they gave up 58 points to Baylor. Even if they did make it, I don't see a team with such a horrible defense winning a championship.

TCU gave up 61 points in that game, actually. BAYLOR is the one that gave up 58. ; )
 

Draxal

Member
How do you spend a year promoting a "one true champion" marketing campaign, touting the fact that it's the only major conference where everybody plays everybody, and then just throw away the most standard tie-breaking procedure used since the dawn of human competition to name co-champions instead?

Oh, right, Big XII Administration.

Just should take Cincinnati and Memphis and be done with this whole thing in the first place.

If you thought the Memphis pick was chosen to troll Goldeneye, you are right
 

KingGondo

Banned
TCU has no business being in the playoffs when they gave up 58 points to Baylor. Even if they did make it, I don't see a team with such a horrible defense winning a championship.
Their defense isn't bad. Baylor just has a ridiculous offense (plus they were playing in Waco).

Baylor would do bad, bad things to a lot of defenses.
 

Draxal

Member
Their defense isn't bad. Baylor just has a ridiculous offense (plus they were playing in Waco).

Baylor would do bad, bad things to a lot of defenses.

It's actually really a shame their ooc was so bad, I wanted to see how they would match up vs a better SEC defense.
 

KingGondo

Banned
It's actually really a shame their ooc was so bad, I wanted to see how they would match up vs a better SEC defense.
Fuck Baylor for playing that terrible schedule. I hope it bites them in the ass.

They're at the level now where playing a mid-level major conference opponent is a fairly easy game. No excuse for scheduling the little sisters of the poor.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
the funny thing about Baylor, is that they could eventually end up playing an sec team in the postseason and potentially dominate them. Of course, when that happens, everyone will just say, "well, the SEC team didn't get up for the game because they weren't in the championship. They had no reason to be there in the first place." For every other conference it's damned if you do and damned if you don't.
 

Jhriad

Member
Nebraska if you blow it against Wisconsin I swear to God...

Nebraska isn't favored and they shouldn't be. Unless Ameer has 175+ total yards we're unlikely to be consistent enough on offense to do much. Tommy will throw an interception either because of an errant throw or a receiver running the wrong route and there will be at least two procedural penalties on the offensive line. We're easily the more talented team and if it was based on sheer talent we'd win. Unfortunately the linebacker run fit problems, inconsistent safety play from Cooper, and the insistence on staying in two high most of the time means we'll get gouged on the run more than we should.

While I hope we keep it close and win I would not be shocked at all to see us lose by 17-21 points.

Looks like Nebraska dropped big? Having a bye week is killer in the league now!

I don't think it's too big a problem. The previous ranking was too high for us given how we've played so far this year. Somewhere around 15th or 16th sounds about right. I was even telling a friend I was grabbing dinner with last night that I hoped we didn't move up because we're not really playing up to that level currently.
 

Draxal

Member
Fuck Baylor for playing that terrible schedule. I hope it bites them in the ass.

They're at the level now where playing a mid-level major conference opponent is a fairly easy game. No excuse for scheduling the little sisters of the poor.

Honestly, if tOSU pounds Nebraska in the championship game (and they are very capable of doing so). This could turn into a worst case scenario for the Big 12. KSU/Okie/Xerox U all had very respectable ooc's and would have made it with a one loss. Baylor/TCU tie at the top is not what they wanted.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Yeah, I mentioned as much last week when moved up to 13.i certainly don't feel like we deserve that ranking. If we beat Wiscy on Saturday, by all means, move us up, but not for beating up the garbage of the league.

Fuck Baylor for playing that terrible schedule. I hope it bites them in the ass.

They're at the level now where playing a mid-level major conference opponent is a fairly easy game. No excuse for scheduling the little sisters of the poor.

I think this habit will die out very quickly. One beneficial effect that only having 4 teams in the playoffs, actually, is that teams will get left out for OOC scheduling.
 

KingGondo

Banned
Honestly, if tOSU pounds Nebraska in the championship game (and they are very capable of doing so). This could turn into a worst case scenario for the Big 12. KSU/Okie/Xerox U all had very respectable ooc's and would have made it with a one loss. Baylor/TCU tie at the top is not what they wanted.
TCU dominated a pretty good Minnesota team though. That alone should put them ahead of Baylor.

Hopefully the committee will put a lot of weight on OOC scheduling. Nobody likes games between cupcakes and major conference teams except for the coaches and ADs.
 

andycapps

Member
TCU gave up 61 points in that game, actually. BAYLOR is the one that gave up 58. ; )

Ha, you are right. Point is still that 58 or 61 points allowed should factor into the committee's decision on rankings.

KingGondo said:
Their defense isn't bad. Baylor just has a ridiculous offense (plus they were playing in Waco).

Baylor would do bad, bad things to a lot of defenses.

Both teams have great offenses, but a good defense is going to hold you under your average PPG. Baylor is averaging 50.1 PPG against a weak schedule. 61 PPG against TCU makes me think that TCU does not have an above average defense.
 

xeris

Member
GAF Pick'em Week 12 Games

(THU) ECU @ Cincinnati by 7
Clemson @ Georgia Tech by 7
Virginia Tech @ Duke by 4
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina by 4
Mississippi State @ Alabama by 4
Nebraska @ Wisconsin by 7
Washington @ Arizona by 4
Utah @ Stanford by 10
Auburn @ Georgia by 4
Texas @ Oklahoma State by 4
Florida State @ Miami by 10
LSU @ Arkansas by 10
 

Draxal

Member
Fans are idiots, more at 11.

If you take to harassing a college athlete on Twitter, perhaps pause for a moment and reevaluate where you are in your life.

Gary Nova was getting death threats from Rutgers fans as well ... As much as Gamer's Gate is pretty fucking awful, I don't think its an indictment on gamers, because it's just as bad everyplace else. It's just to easy to harass without any repercussions on the internet.
 

KingGondo

Banned
I just wish TCU and Baylor had played so we don't have to speculate based on ooc schedules. It's a bummer that it has to come down to this.
Even with the head to head result, it's reasonable to keep TCU ahead of Baylor even if you think there isn't much separation between them.

The fact that TCU had a 21-point lead in Waco in the fourth quarter carries more weight with me than the fact that they blew it.
 
ASU has played 6 ranked teams (when we played them). If we win out and AZ and Oregon hold up, we would be 12-1 with wins over 7 ranked teams when we played them. You can't put Ohio State in front of that, you just can't.

ASU is a poorly defended Hail Mary against unranked USC away from not being a part of this conversation.

https://twitter.com/valeroalamobowl/status/532545057845301248

.@McMurphyESPN 15.38% of the bowls now have "chicken-related" title sponsors. 612% increase over '13. http://espn.go.com/college-football...ht-hunger-bowl-changes-name-foster-farms-bowl … @BWWCitrusBowl

A user on reddit disagrees:

http://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2m2r3h/1538_of_the_bowls_now_have_chickenrelated_title/cm0eyqx

I just ran a few excel pivots and I'm not sure how they're getting to 15.38%.
I'm seeing 12.82% (Popeyes, Zaxby's, Chik-Fil-A, BWW, Foster Farms). What am I missing?
With that said: According to my data
Edited: As people help-out
Sub-Category:
Financial: 15.38%
Chicken: 12.82%
Location: 10.26%
Clothing: 10.26%
Category:
Financial: 20.51%
Retail: 17.95%
Food: 17.95%
Transportation (Automotive): 15.38%
Location: 10.26%
 
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