One of the most accurate pollsters from 2024.
I imagine he's being honest, but it's too early to make a lasting generalization about that at this point.
Why? Because a number of independents are already "Republican-leaning". Some are semi-reliable (R) voters, in practice, but simply didn't like to say it out loud.
If they're coming out and saying it in public right now, then it's really a change in terms of communication of preferences rather than a change in voter behavior.
Conversely, other independents are "Democrat-leaning" at the end of the day. I'd doubt there's going to be much movement in that area, exceptions aside, because the current administration is ultra-partisan and not trying to find any common ground.
Other than the GOP giving you applause for being "one of the good ones" and leaving the left, they're not going to offer any compromises in terms of public policy. If you're shocked by the death of Charlie Kirk but you would like a more liberal policy in terms of economics, abortion, gun control, relations with Israel or immigration, what's Trump going to do for you? It's all about giving the Trump base more red meat, one way or another, rather than offering up anything that a left-leaning voter would actually want.
Those swings would become rather precarious and unreliable, as other data was/is already starting to show with 2024 Trump voters in certain demographics.
In the end, "independent" is a label that contains numerous sub-divisions, rather than one size fits all.
Furthermore, you'd have to account for recency bias. You'll get different results if you ask about party identification now than if you ask the question, say, one month before the elections.
news.sky.com
www.forbes.com
that's just one of the reasons why
oh and plenty of close-ups of her face, to prove shes such a good actress still
