The main goal is to get you to buy toppings, not flavors.
There's nothing about the traditional model that insists on bloated, overlong games. In fact prior to the last generation it was pretty common for single-player games to take about 10-12 hours to beat. The prevalence of ultralong games these days actually stems more so from microtransactions - the longer people play, the more microtransaction opportunities they'll be exposed to. Asscreed is the poster child for this phenomenon - the classic Asscreeds were 15-20 hour games, now they're 50+ hour games.
Single-player games that don't rely on microtransactions haven't had their lengths balloon nearly as much overall. God of War went from 10-12 hours to 20 hours, Uncharted went from 8-10 hours to 15 hours, DMC stayed strong at 11 hours. There are exceptions, of course (TLoU went from 15 hours to 24 hours, Red Dead went from 18 to 48 hours), but then again new games like Spider-Man (17 hours) or RE2 remake (8 hours) released at a reasonable length.
Game length is a business model decision for games that rely on microtransactions under the traditional model. The Gamepass model might mitigate against by compressing game lengths overall, but that'll be a function of the fact that it'll compress budgets overall so there'll be cuts across the board. All else being equal, games as a service still encourages longer game length because it leads to more microtransactions.
Game length in games without microtransaction is not a business model decision so much as it is a game design fad. As soon as publishers realize that critics and consumers have stopped prioritizing game length when deciding what to purchase, they'll stop insisting that devs pad their single-player games. Nothing about the traditional model insists on long games.
If Halo Infinite is the biggest runaway success in Xbox's history imagine how much money Phil will have left on the table if everyone is playing it for $15 on Gamepass.
The overwhelming majority of the best games of all time have been and will continue to be single-player games. Insofar as Gamepass favors microtransactions that's a bad thing because microtransactions encourage shitty game design, and insofar as an emphasis on microtransactions favors multiplayer games that's also a bad thing because the best games are single-player.
- There's actually two main goals with GamePass. Get more subscribers (+$15 per month) and sell more toppings (MTX). So you're ignoring the fact that homogenization actively works against the strategy of drawing new subscribers. Why release more Halo and Halo like games (vanilla) if you already got the Halo fans subscribing to your service? Once you get the people who love vanilla on board, it's time to offer chocolate. Once vanilla and chocolate lovers are subscribing, it's time to create a cinnamon ice cream, and so on and so forth....This encourages innovation + creativity and less vanilla.
The industry is definitely dealing with bloat under the old model. Games are too long today and the completion rates are, imo, abysmal. Consider this...
The Last of Us II, chopped into 6 parts, each part sells for $10 dollars (MTX). The people that loved The Last of Us II will gladly spend the $60 dollars. But there's a huge chunk of people that grew too bored to finish it, and then there's another chunk of people who only finished it because "Damn it, I payed good money on this I better see it through.". That model is anti consumer. The MTX model would allow all gamers to pay what they think the game is worth.
GamePass only encourages added game length to the games worthy of longer game length. Plant 10 seeds, two of them are showing potential/organic growth, then you water those two sprouts.
The old model says "Drive full resources to all projects and who cares if 8/10 don't warant the resources?
Game length (under the traditional model) isn't driven by engagement. See the paltry completion rates for most single player games. The unhealthy question developers+publishers have to ask themselves is "How do we remove $60 (now $70) from consumers before they engage with our game"? The answer is typically a cocktail of bad ideas. Spend a crazy amount of resources on high fidelity visuals, a big FOMO marketing blitz, a tacked on multiplayer mode, and bloated overly long game design.
I do feel our conversation is chipping away at the truth. You're comment about single player games being better than multiplayer games is driving your stance here, not necessarily logic.
MTX + GamePass benefit multiplayer more than single player. Obviously single player gamers are going to fear what MS is doing with GamePass.