December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

Welfare said:
BF certainly helped the PS4 with that GTAV bundle and the Xbox One not really having as good of a bundle there as Target and Walmart.

But he also said mid November that the One was losing steam, so maybe Best Buy is PS4 biased :p
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Well, he said that what really killed X1 sales for his store was that they ran out, and did not get restocked at all for BF.

He said they sold out much quicker than PS4 bundle though, and that he had checked the sales for another BB store, and it had sold more X1s.

So I think that it was just a supply issue for his store.
 
Final Verdict said:
Well, he said that what really killed X1 sales for his store was that they ran out, and did not get restocked at all for BF.

He said they sold out much quicker than PS4 bundle though, and that he had checked the sales for another BB store, and it had sold more X1s.

So I think that it was just a supply issue for his store.
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Oh, I didn't see that post then.
 
Fehyd said:
December is going to be interesting. Xbone sales seemed to really slow midway through. PS4 sales were steady, but there aren't a whole lot of units to come-by at the retailer I work for.

By comparison, the Assassin's Creed bundles have been channel stuffed, either intentionally or because demand dried-up. A few distribution centers have upwards of 4000 units just sitting there.
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Abdiel said:
Hey guys. After November, while my numbers were accurate for our stores, I think the holiday chaos distorts the larger picture (more diverse sales, and much larger sales in locations that normally don't do as much business). As such, I'm being cautious with sweeping statements.

That being said, the numbers were again very close for us, some of the ps4 deals were really solid this month, and the Xb1 continued to do exceptionally well. I'm not making a call for this month because I have no idea how the larger trends pan out across retail at large. Good luck everyone!
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Thanks a lot for the insightful information from insiders. I've been waiting for more information before making my predictions. So from what I've heard, the XB1 was overstocked in December and sales slowed down mid way?
 
Goodacre0081 said:
wow, this months sales chatter isn't nearly as active as Nov. feels like a random month in the middle of the year at this point.
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Thinking a lot of people just want to wait a good moment and you can't blame them. No one saw Nov coming. No one saw that CBOAT drama coming either fwiw.

Personally I can't believe I at one point predicted XBO selling just a bit more than a third of what it actually did. Then again, I generally suck at making these predictions xD
 
Goodacre0081 said:
wow, this months sales chatter isn't nearly as active as Nov. feels like a random month in the middle of the year at this point.
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we just have much higher expectations because november had so much hype.

compared to december npd prediction threads in the past, this one is pretty substantial:


december 2008 predictions thread: 318 posts total

december 2009 predictions thread: 296 posts total

december 2010 predictions thread: 261 posts total

december 2011 predictions thread: 226 posts total

december 2012 predictions thread: 232 posts total

december 2013 predictions thread: 673 posts total

december 2014 predictions thread: 210 posts so far (and we still have a week before npd is released)
 
Final Verdict said:
Well, he said that what really killed X1 sales for his store was that they ran out, and did not get restocked at all for BF.

He said they sold out much quicker than PS4 bundle though, and that he had checked the sales for another BB store, and it had sold more X1s.

So I think that it was just a supply issue for his store.
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Speaking of "running out", I noticed that the Xbox One AC Unity bundle has been close to selling out multiple times on Amazon this week ("Only <10 less in stock"). Very strange.

Edit: AC Unity Bundle with Kinect is sold out too right now. Being phased out for the standard SKU?
 
Bgamer90 said:
Speaking of "running out", I noticed on that the Xbox One AC Unity bundle has been close to selling out multiple times on Amazon this week ("Only <10 less in stock"). Very strange.

Edit: AC Unity Bundle w/ Kinect is sold out too right now.
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Maybe a new SKU is coming?
 
stryke said:
It's probably because it's been overshadowed by the PS4 sales thread.
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This. A thread on global lifetime sales was always going to take the wind out of the sails of a thread about 1 month in 1 market. But man that thread has undertaken several transformations, from PS4 global sales > Amiga love-in > Will Uncharted 4 outsell Halo 5 > Has Microsoft been good for the gaming industry > What games will get moneyhatted by MSFT or Sony > back to PS4 global sales.

It was a HELL of a ride.
 
Drac84 said:
This. A thread on global lifetime sales was always going to take the wind out of the sails of a thread about 1 month in 1 market. But man that thread has undertaken several transformations, from PS4 global sales > Amiga love-in > Will Uncharted 4 outsell Halo 5 > Has Microsoft been good for the gaming industry > What games will get moneyhatted by MSFT or Sony > back to PS4 global sales.

It was a HELL of a ride.
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I think you left out the XBox One's WW sales ;)
One guy was actually predicting the X1 had sold through 13 million and shipped 15 million by this point XD
 
Javin98 said:
I think you left out the XBox One's WW sales ;)
One guy was actually predicting the X1 had sold through 13 million and shipped 15 million by this point XD
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That would be Teh Artisan

I think they've maybe gone back and re-evaluated some of those positions, with the mountain of evidence provided.
 
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
That would be Teh Artisan

I think they've maybe gone back and re-evaluated some of those positions, with the mountain of evidence provided.
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Hey, I remembered his name. I just didn't want to mention his name in another thread to save him the embarrassment. ;)

Anyway, some people are still insisting the X1 sold over 10 million units by the end of the year which is unlikely IMO. 9-9.5 million sounds more reasonable and here is my (optimistic) breakdown:
US: 6.2 million
UK: 1.3 million
ROTW: 2 million

Even 6.2 million for the US seems pretty high. For that number to be achieved, the X1 would have to sell 1.3 million in December alone which is even higher than its amazing November sales. And here in this thread itself we have evidence that the X1 was overstocked. Based on the recent info we got from MCV, the PS4 sold better than the X1 in November+December so 300K in late November-early January may also be too optimistic.
 
jhmtehgamr20xx said:
No one saw Nov coming.
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That sounds like revisionist history. I think almost everyone expected an Xbox One win in November given the aggressive pricing and bundles, the only real question was the magnitude of the win. Before Sony started announcing bundles I had stated that I wouldn't be shocked by a 2:1 win for MS, so the eventual 3:2 was only moderately surprising for some in denial.

December I'm expecting will be much closer, with MS likely to come out on top again.
 
Goodacre0081 said:
wow, this months sales chatter isn't nearly as active as Nov. feels like a random month in the middle of the year at this point.
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At least for me I am not sure it feels like it matters. PS4 crushed it so hard worldwide over the "holiday period" that I'm just not interested in what the differential was in the US. Will still want numbers of course, but it just feels like "what difference does it make."
 
Team Vernia said:
Maybe a new SKU is coming?
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Checked again and the AC Unity Bundle with Kinect is sold out. The AC Unity SKU without kinect only has 12 left in stock.

Don't think a new SKU is coming this month; Just seems strange since this didn't happen in November and December (outside of the Sunset Overdrive and Call of Duty bundles).

Maybe the XB1 did so well in December that there were only a few left for this week on Amazon?
 
Drac84 said:
This. A thread on global lifetime sales was always going to take the wind out of the sails of a thread about 1 month in 1 market. But man that thread has undertaken several transformations, from PS4 global sales > Amiga love-in > Will Uncharted 4 outsell Halo 5 > Has Microsoft been good for the gaming industry > What games will get moneyhatted by MSFT or Sony > back to PS4 global sales.

It was a HELL of a ride.
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I think there was also a small detour through the format wars in 05-08 for no apparent reason.
 
After cboat, I'm expecting a pie graph from someone on the first page of the actual thread. Craziness to end the 2014 period proper.
 
First time taking part, but here goes.

[xb1] 1000k
[ps4] 1100k
[3ds] 580k
[wiu] 550k
[360] 310k
[ps3] 180k


I think Xbone rode it's November train well but it was an impulse purchase pushed on by black Friday, the console name on peoples lips is PS4, i think this will lead to the PS4 taking the month by 10% over Xbone.

If kids/partners are asking their parents/other half for a PS4 then usually price doesn't matter.
 
ghost4soul said:
[XB1] 1010k
[PS4] 950k
[3DS] 750k
[Wii-U] 340k
[360] 370k
[PS3] 220k

My first so happy
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ComputerSaysNo said:
First time taking part, but here goes.

[xb1] 1000k
[ps4] 1100k
[3ds] 580k
[wiu] 550k
[360] 310k
[ps3] 180k


I think Xbone rode it's November train well but it was an impulse purchase pushed on by black Friday, the console name on peoples lips is PS4, i think this will lead to the PS4 taking the month by 10% over Xbone.

If kids/partners are asking their parents/other half for a PS4 then usually price doesn't matter.
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Welcome!^^ And good luck!!!^^
 
Bgamer90 said:
Checked again and the AC Unity Bundle with Kinect is sold out. The AC Unity SKU without kinect only has 12 left in stock.

Don't think a new SKU is coming this month; Just seems strange since this didn't happen in November and December (outside of the Sunset Overdrive and Call of Duty bundles).

Maybe the XB1 did so well in December that there were only a few left for this week on Amazon?
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Is that from a 3rd party or Amazon? Because for some reason the ACU bundle is getting special treatment and displaying third party sellers with lower than retail pricing. The amount left keeps counting down every day then another seller takes its place. Also the amount left isn't a big deal because several times during the holiday the Ps4 would say something like 6 left but then replenish when those ran out.


I will say the ACU bundle is still around in store at least a bestbuy and walmart in my area. At least 10 kinect bundles and maybe 5 or so non kinect bundles that are out on the floor.



[xb1] 1200k
[ps4] 1000k
[3ds] 580k
[wiu] 500k
[360] 380k
[ps3] 210k
 
Serenity said:
Is that from a 3rd party or Amazon? Because for some reason the ACU bundle is getting special treatment and displaying third party sellers with lower than retail pricing. The amount left keeps counting down every day then another seller takes its place. Also the amount left isn't a big deal because several times during the holiday the Ps4 would say something like 6 left but then replenish when those ran out.
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Yeah, they are all from third party sellers. The AC Unity Bundle with kinect is too but Amazon is only showing prices higher than $500 for some reason.

And yeah, I remember it happening with the PS4 last month but it didn't happen with any of the AC Xbox One bundles until this past week.
 
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