December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

How is XB1 doing now that the price is back to 399$?

Currently on the Amazon hourly (so with possible huge swings):

#9: PS4 / $399
#22: Every little shop under the sun trying to sell their stock of XB1 ACU bundle between $379 and $389 (2 hours ago it was a vitamin/ supplement store with a small stock they probably purchased at discount in December)
#312: XB1 w/ Kinect ACU bundle

edit: Corrected #312 ... wonder if it would sell more with Kindles :P
 
I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

Sweet Jesus.
 
I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

Could Microsoft just have prioritized America, UK, and other key markets like they did for Tier 1 at launch?
 
Ugghh, morning conference calls are the worst....




It's hard to tell right now because it is always slow this time of year until the Income Tax checks start rolling in... Aside from that MS is still ahead because of the bundles; we are still selling a MCC bundle as well as an AC bundle, which both show good value for consumers <free game(s).>

I'd like to see the numbers once it's apples to apples again at non-bundles $399 price point.





December was REALLY busy. What hurt the PS4 in our store is the fact we completely sold out of stock the week before Christmas, but we continued to have a ton of those AC bundles in stock. I would put console sales much higher in 2014 much higher than 2013 just because the consoles were actually in-stock this year. But yeah, MS definately made sure teh store had plenty of XB1 bundles available.


Yeah my local walmart ran out of Ps4 too. Plus there are similar stories I've heard about in Germany and France. I would of thought Sony would of had their production ramped up by now especially considering they don't have to supply many to Japan.
 
this seems like an appropriate place to put this..

but one thing that got me thinking about XBONE's holiday sales was the bundle.. or specifically.. all of the digital copies of Assassins Creed you see being sold along with all of the AC bundles "without codes" you see being sold.

I know there is zero way to probably ever quantify it.. but I would be curious as to how many XBONE sales were to resellers looking to break the bundle up and clear $20-40 on it. Sell the AC code(s) for $25-30, then sell the XBONE for $340.

Now a sale is a sale.. absolutely.. but just going by how many sub-$400 units are still going on Amazon and ebay leads me to believe that a huge chunk of those first hand sales were probably resellers looking to make some extra coin.. so in theory this stands to depress the first hand market slightly over the near future as these resellers look to unload those bundles as fluidly as possible to not take a loss, thus taking away "NPD" sales.
 
Yeah my local walmart ran out of Ps4 too. Plus there are similar stories I've heard about in Germany and France. I would of thought Sony would of had their production ramped up by now especially considering they don't have to supply many to Japan.

Production was doubled for Europe, and still it exceeded expectations.

Tldr; Europe tier-1, RotW tier-2.
 
Expecting huge shipped numbers for x1 this quarter. 3000 in a warehouse damn.

How many stores does the warehouse supply? Does it supply a website?

this seems like an appropriate place to put this..

but one thing that got me thinking about XBONE's holiday sales was the bundle.. or specifically.. all of the digital copies of Assassins Creed you see being sold along with all of the AC bundles "without codes" you see being sold.

I know there is zero way to probably ever quantify it.. but I would be curious as to how many XBONE sales were to resellers looking to break the bundle up and clear $20-40 on it. Sell the AC code(s) for $25-30, then sell the XBONE for $340.

Now a sale is a sale.. absolutely.. but just going by how many sub-$400 units are still going on Amazon and ebay leads me to believe that a huge chunk of those first hand sales were probably resellers looking to make some extra coin.. so in theory this stands to depress the first hand market slightly over the near future as these resellers look to unload those bundles as fluidly as possible to not take a loss, thus taking away "NPD" sales.

Except the sub-$400 units on Amazon still have the codes for the games.
 
I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

Dayum!
 
this seems like an appropriate place to put this..

but one thing that got me thinking about XBONE's holiday sales was the bundle.. or specifically.. all of the digital copies of Assassins Creed you see being sold along with all of the AC bundles "without codes" you see being sold.

I know there is zero way to probably ever quantify it.. but I would be curious as to how many XBONE sales were to resellers looking to break the bundle up and clear $20-40 on it. Sell the AC code(s) for $25-30, then sell the XBONE for $340.

Now a sale is a sale.. absolutely.. but just going by how many sub-$400 units are still going on Amazon and ebay leads me to believe that a huge chunk of those first hand sales were probably resellers looking to make some extra coin.. so in theory this stands to depress the first hand market slightly over the near future as these resellers look to unload those bundles as fluidly as possible to not take a loss, thus taking away "NPD" sales.


Speaking of resellers....


Someone returned 3 $399 GTA bundles from BF last night and the manager approved us taking them back; I mean, it's not like they are not going to sell.....

30 days from XMas was their policy for unopened returns this year, so I guess there are a few people out there taking advantage of the last couple weeks they can, lol. Somebody is goign to be very happy seeing those this week.
 
Except the sub-$400 units on Amazon still have the codes for the games.

right.. there's no need for them to open/split them up until they sell one or both. but it's still a second hand sale and potentially stands t depress the market (very small probably).

yeah, resellers all fucking suck. I'd guess there were plenty on GTAV bundle also.. just seems to be much fewer units of that bundle than the AC XBONE bundle.
 
Reading the thread, makes it sound like M.S. could win January cause of left over bundles and the PS4 being practically sold out.
 
Reading the thread, makes it sound like M.S. could win January cause of left over bundles and the PS4 being practically sold out.

I don't think shortages will be a problem for the PS4. If there were though, it would basically be a battle of low demand (XB1) and low supply (PS4).
 
Reading the thread, makes it sound like M.S. could win January cause of left over bundles and the PS4 being practically sold out.

I don't know about shortages on PS4 right now, but yeah, there are definately a TON of those AC/MCC bundles still out there for retailers to sell
 
I don't have the earlier figures for ps4, but either Sony shipped just enough for they did slightly better than anticipated. A lot of stores have 1 or none available for sale.

About 250 ps4s sitting unsold in store across the same number of stores. 0 in the distribution center.

Over 3500 xbones sitting in stores unsold. Over 3000 in distribution center.

If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management. They aren't hard to come by in the distribution chain at all.

But yes there are certainly more XBones sitting unsold.
 
If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management.

Sick burn.

Well since most video game buyers used to buy cheese or furniture before getting thrown on games it's not surprising. Can count the number of buyers that actually play games on a couple fingers.
 
If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management. They aren't hard to come by in the distribution chain at all.

But yes there are certainly more XBones sitting unsold.

You're going to start questioning another distributors inventory again? Please stop.
 
You're going to start questioning another distributors inventory again? Please stop.

Im not questioning anything? He's Bish checked I believe him I'm simply commenting on their inventory supply since that individual gave the info out. I never said they were lying relax. If they got the Bish check I believe them
 
If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management. They aren't hard to come by in the distribution chain at all.

But yes there are certainly more XBones sitting unsold.

You're alright sometimes, but you have an annoying habit of thinking you're top of the tree - first with Abdiel, now with this guy.

You work in a shop and have access to numbers, just like those other guys.

You're going to start questioning another distributors inventory again? Please stop.

I agree with this guy. You have potential to go all Famous Mortimer and outgrow your Gaf socks thinking you're the best. You're Bish-approved, and so are the others, so please don't be so smug. And you didn't appear to question that guy, you lolled at his operation for being useless at ordering stuff Your stock management is poor, and everybody knows PS4s are eeeeeeeeeeasy to get, lol <- That's what it sounded like to me.

Im not questioning anything? He's Bish checked I believe him I'm simply commenting on their inventory supply since that individual gave the info out. I never said they were lying relax. If they got the Bish check I believe them

If it isn't your intention, you should perhaps word things better - right now they look like cheap shots.
 
Im not questioning anything? He's Bish checked I believe him I'm simply commenting on their inventory supply since that individual gave the info out. I never said they were lying relax. If they got the Bish check I believe them

Hey it sounded like you didn't believe the guy and questioning the way the store runs business. The same way you called out Abidel about his stores sales of PS4 and XB1 for November. Even asking for him to be banned. Shit is not cool. You know your shit, he knows his. Same for everyone else with retail info.
 
If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management. They aren't hard to come by in the distribution chain at all.

But yes there are certainly more XBones sitting unsold.

Now, now... Play nice boys.
 
If you have 0 PS4s sitting in your distribution center than whatever company you work for must be pretty poor at stock management. They aren't hard to come by in the distribution chain at all.

But yes there are certainly more XBones sitting unsold.

I'm not a buyer so I don't know what goes through their heads. Only dc that has stock looks to have 1800 ps4s or so, and that's about as far away from where I am as possible.

Absolutely nothing in transit from dc. We have another unannounced bundle coming down the pipe? Anyone heard anything?
 
Hey it sounded like you didn't belive the guy and questioning the way the store runs business. The same way you called out Abidel about his stores sales of PS4 and XB1 for November. Even asking for him to be banned. Shit is not cool. You know your shit, he knows his. Same for everyone else with retail info.

I never asked for Abdiel to be banned? Are you kidding me? So people that work in retail aren't aloud to talk to each other about numbers / shipments anymore when THEY are the ones who openly bring them up?

Alright GAF thats it then. No more NPD or numbers from me again. I decided I'd talk a bit about it after the shit that went down last month but basically every thread I try to discuss this stuff in turns into everyone bash Shogun when I'm trying to add discussion to the community but frankly fuck it,it doesn't feel like its appreciated at all.

I'll still post about some stuff but numbers talk for me is done.
 
Im not questioning anything? He's Bish checked I believe him I'm simply commenting on their inventory supply since that individual gave the info out. I never said they were lying relax. If they got the Bish check I believe them




I mean, it's cool that you didn't say he was lying.

But claiming a company "must be pretty poor at stock management" based on your limited information is a little... out there, you have to admit.

I never asked for Abdiel to be banned? Are you kidding me? So people that work in retail aren't aloud to talk to each other about numbers / shipments anymore when THEY are the ones who openly bring them up?

Alright GAF thats it then. No more NPD or numbers from me again. I decided I'd talk a bit about it after the shit that went down last month but basically every thread I try to discuss this stuff in turns into everyone bash Shogun when I'm trying to add discussion to the community but frankly fuck it,it doesn't feel like its appreciated at all.

I'll still post about some stuff but numbers talk for me is done.

That's a bummer, but I think you kind of picked the wrong hill to make this final stand on, no? I freely admit that I've foolishly "questioned" some of your info in the past before knowing the background of your posts, as hundreds of others have foolishly done so in the past. And that must have been frustrating and annoying, absolutely.
But you pick the reactions to your own catty post to someone with stock information to say "enough is enough", though?
 
I never asked for Abdiel to be banned? Are you kidding me? So people that work in retail aren't aloud to talk to each other about numbers / shipments anymore when THEY are the ones who openly bring them up?

Alright GAF thats it then. No more NPD or numbers from me again. I decided I'd talk a bit about it after the shit that went down last month but basically every thread I try to discuss this stuff in turns into everyone bash Shogun when I'm trying to add discussion to the community but frankly fuck it,it doesn't feel like its appreciated at all.

I'll still post about some stuff but numbers talk for me is done.

Now you're going to act like you got bullied? Good lord dude, grow up.
 
I mean, it's cool that you didn't say he was lying.

But claiming a company "must be pretty poor at stock management" based on your limited information is a little... out there, you have to admit.

Its called discussion? I see different things than they do and was going to talk about it. Hell I know ZERO about the company they work for and flat out said I believe them. Hell they could even work for the same company I do.

Anyone can be wrong hell PS4 could win December NPD and I could be flat out wrong, I'm not above that by any means.

But either way the people that post in these NPD threads always jump all over anything I say so I'm out of these threads for good.
 
Jesus christ guys! I'm sure the shogun meant no harm. Not sure why some of you are attacking him.

Please stay
 
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Its called discussion? I see different things than they do and was going to talk about it. Hell I know ZERO about the company they work for and flat out said I believe them. Hell they could even work for the same company I do.

Anyone can be wrong hell PS4 could win December NPD and I could be flat out wrong, I'm not above that by any means.

But either way the people that post in these NPD threads always jump all over anything I say so I'm out of these threads for good.

I don't usually follow sales threads all that much, and even less what you guys bring to the table. I'm also not aware of anything that happened between you and Abdiel (BB dude irrc, no?), but your post's tone felt like it was hovering over the line between genuine concern and not really sure he was telling the truth.

My first thought when I read your post was the latter. I'm probably wrong though.
 
Its called discussion? I see different things than they do and was going to talk about it. Hell I know ZERO about the company they work for and flat out said I believe them. Hell they could even work for the same company I do.

Anyone can be wrong hell PS4 could win December NPD and I could be flat out wrong, I'm not above that by any means.

But either way the people that post in these NPD threads always jump all over anything I say so I'm out of these threads for good.



Point is, to be clear -- the same (unfortunate) thing has been done to you in the past to a fault, and I totally understand how frustrating that is -- but don't you think that taking limited information and making a judgement on the stock management of another company goes in the same lines of what others (and me!) have done in the past to your information?

I'm not trying to ride your ass here, only being self-critical of the conclusions we reach with limited information. Maybe it isn't his company that's bad at stock management, but Sony that hasn't flowed stock in a satisfactory and evenly spread out manner to all different retailers?

I have no qualms with playing off different little pieces of evidence that you two give us to build a clearer picture, I just don't see why this particular case was one worth taking such a strong stance on, since it has as counterpart actual data. Does that make more sense? You've been on the other side of this discussion, is essentially what I'm saying :)
 
Listen everyone, we're all friends here. I dont dislike anyone from GAF. I said anyone with a Bish tag I believe as Bish is the shit.

Listen when you have hard numbers, and so does someone else, and you are seeing different things you are of course going to have disagreement. Its natural as we are seeing different stuff. I apologized repeatedly to Abdiel and I apologize to the user just now if I offended them.

Listen GAF, we're tight. I will talk with and discuss some stuff from retailer perspective with you all, but the numbers game seems a lot more aggressive than say, talking about Zelda LE's. Thats why I'm gonna streer clear of these types of threads now. Its just frankly stressful.

I want to openly apologize to the entire mod team for de railing this thread and to any users who have been offended / didn't like reading my posts here.
 
In further analysis, this feels like much ado about a probably innocent comment that I jumped on for no particular reason other than "hey! let's see what the sales predictions are looking like!".

I apologize for escalating it further for no good reason and will leave it at that if at all possible :)


Truthfact: All companies are pretty terrible at stock management these days. Every single retailer.


I imagine it's a very, very hard problem to solve, since you not only need to anticipate demand, but also manage shipping flows throughout the country and place orders ahead of time.
Like with economic or finance forecasting, though, "bad" is relative to the rest of the industry, no?

I regret jumping halfway through and escalating this discussion thinking I could somehow disarm it by just trying to show Shogun what I felt was the other shoe. Again, apologies to all involved.
 
don't you think that taking limited information and making a judgement on the stock management of another company

Truthfact: All companies are pretty terrible at stock management these days. Every single retailer, 1st party and publisher is struggling with how to read and react to this market.

Anyone who forecasts this business professionally would agree with that, and would not be sensitive about those comments at all.

Right now the industry is incredibly difficult to forecast. There are no reliable benchmarks for these new consoles, don't even get me started on forecasting game sales.

This isn't a big deal. No need for drama.
 
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