December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

You know, you said that the PS4 won't outsell the figure XB1 did in holidays 2014, which was 2.52 million. For that to happen now, the PS4 would have to sell under a million. But you made an avatar bet with Elandyll. You and I just had a friendly bet. Don't remember? Check your PM's from a few months ago. :P

m-night-shyamalan.jpg
 
You know, you said that the PS4 won't outsell the figure XB1 did in holidays 2014, which was 2.52 million. For that to happen now, the PS4 would have to sell under a million. But you made an avatar bet with Elandyll. You and I just had a friendly bet. Don't remember? Check your PM's from a few months ago. :P

Ah lol, but i already used another avatar for one week :P so nope, now my avatar is save now. :P

...Btw, speaking about avatar bet... i think end of January / Starting February will be LEGENDARY.
 
Did Amazon have a pre order sale on the Division? It shot to the top for January, and only for the PS4 SKU (Xbox1 out of the top 100). I am looking forward to this game, but that is a weird jump in pre orders and why only one SKU? Seems like something is screwy...
 
Did Amazon have a pre order sale on the Division? It shot to the top for January, and only for the PS4 SKU (Xbox1 out of the top 100). I am looking forward to this game, but that is a weird jump in pre orders and why only one SKU? Seems like something is screwy...

Noticed that today. Why The Division of all titles? It didn't even get any new media to warrant a jump in interest. Could just be that the holiday sales are over, and the deflation of holiday sales is causing the hourly charts to return to how they should be appearing.
 
Serversurfer probably still waits on a reply.
Nah, I'm pretty forgiving. I try to stay focused on the future as much as possible. Hence my obsession with correcting the present, I guess. :p

Like I said before, there's no reason for anyone to think of me as an adversary unless they really feel like they need one. While it's clearly possible to make me an enemy if you're willing to work hard and consistently make the tough decisions — just look at MS — it's probably even easier to turn me in to an ally, even if our goals are mutually exclusive. Everyone has goals, and I don't begrudge anyone else theirs. The rules are pretty simple, and they apply to everyone equally.

  • Make a good argument in furtherance of your goals, and I'll happily help explain it to anyone who fails to understand, even if doing so runs counter to my own goals; respect++;
  • Make a bad argument — even one that furthers my own goals — and I will gleefully tear it to shreds, and I will give the appropriate zero fucks regarding what you do for a living while doing so because bad arguments deserve to be destroyed; if (seeminglyIntentional) then respect--;
It should probably be noted that I tend to prioritize the second rule. ;)
 
These people can fucking die in a fire so I am trying to understand why we need people reserving deck chairs in a thread!

Nobody NEEDS to, but it's really no different if the same people just posted

[3DS] 1
[PS4] 1
[XB1] 1
[WIIU] 1

as they can just go and amend it later.
 
Nobody NEEDS to, but it's really no different if the same people just posted

[3DS] 1
[PS4] 1
[XB1] 1
[WIIU] 1

as they can just go and amend it later.

Or how about just posting predictions when you're ready to do so? This thread isn't going to run out of posts, so I still don't know where this dumb "reserving" mentality comes from.
 
Did Amazon have a pre order sale on the Division? It shot to the top for January, and only for the PS4 SKU (Xbox1 out of the top 100). I am looking forward to this game, but that is a weird jump in pre orders and why only one SKU? Seems like something is screwy...

PS4 beta maybe? People thirsty for those codes
 
Someone (I believe it was Conduit) asked me about the status of the Tomb Raider bundle in our stores.

Um. Well. I did a check and there's only two stores within 300 miles of my home store that don't have at least several available right now. Starting it at the higher price point really didn't help it, because even with the discount, it still wasn't as cheap as the other options. So I feel like we'll be hanging onto these for awhile.

Also, I'm kind of annoyed that right now I can seemingly only preorder Nights of Azure through Amazon, and Fairy Fencer F through Amazon or Gamestop... But I can preorder Lichdom Battlemage through my store. I don't think Lichdom is a 'bigger' game than Nights of Azure or Fairy Fencer, so I'm not really sure what's going on, but I don't like losing out on my GCU discount, or being able to snag my games from work. I should tweet at them to ask.
 
[3DS] 600K
[PS4] 1600K
[WIU] 450K
[XB1] 1300K

Edit: bumping the PS4 number up after the PS4 WW sell through figure.
 
Someone (I believe it was Conduit) asked me about the status of the Tomb Raider bundle in our stores.

Um. Well. I did a check and there's only two stores within 300 miles of my home store that don't have at least several available right now. Starting it at the higher price point really didn't help it, because even with the discount, it still wasn't as cheap as the other options. So I feel like we'll be hanging onto these for awhile.

As a reference how much stock did each store average to begin with?

Also, I'm kind of annoyed that right now I can seemingly only preorder Nights of Azure through Amazon, and Fairy Fencer F through Amazon or Gamestop... But I can preorder Lichdom Battlemage through my store. I don't think Lichdom is a 'bigger' game than Nights of Azure or Fairy Fencer, so I'm not really sure what's going on, but I don't like losing out on my GCU discount, or being able to snag my games from work. I should tweet at them to ask.

I know one of these games... I thought I was well informed on releases. o_O
 
Nights of Azure and Fairy Fencer F have been advertised about as much as these games tend to be
 
Mmmk so I think PS4 should be up MoM

I'm currently debating whether it's weekly average will be up compared to November. If it is that would mean more than 1900k. But I really have no sense of how much hardware Star Wars drove so I'm just not certain how reasonable that is.
 
I'm currently debating whether it's weekly average will be up compared to November. If it is that would mean more than 1900k. But I really have no sense of how much hardware Star Wars drove so I'm just not certain how reasonable that is.
I think the weekly average in December will be lower than in November, as per usual with the other consoles in recent years. I will be shocked if the PS4 did hit 1.9 million in December, though.
 
As a reference how much stock did each store average to begin with?



I know one of these games... I thought I was well informed on releases. o_O

There's no specific number for how many each store got on the bundle, as it's all based on back end metrics of hopeful sales projections. My home store got over 50. We've still got over 25 left. No replenishment since initial shipment

I know nothing about Lichdom. That's the point. I I don't underhand why the other two games aren't available for order but this game I have never even heard of, even though I'm pretty well informed, is available. I don't understand what dictates for best buy to accept preorders.

Because I can assure you, no one in our district has preordered lichdom, I only found out because it's on our website.
 
Someone (I believe it was Conduit) asked me about the status of the Tomb Raider bundle in our stores.

Um. Well. I did a check and there's only two stores within 300 miles of my home store that don't have at least several available right now. Starting it at the higher price point really didn't help it, because even with the discount, it still wasn't as cheap as the other options. So I feel like we'll be hanging onto these for awhile.

Also, I'm kind of annoyed that right now I can seemingly only preorder Nights of Azure through Amazon, and Fairy Fencer F through Amazon or Gamestop... But I can preorder Lichdom Battlemage through my store. I don't think Lichdom is a 'bigger' game than Nights of Azure or Fairy Fencer, so I'm not really sure what's going on, but I don't like losing out on my GCU discount, or being able to snag my games from work. I should tweet at them to ask.

Yes, it was me. Thanks!
 
There's no specific number for how many each store got on the bundle, as it's all based on back end metrics of hopeful sales projections. My home store got over 50. We've still got over 25 left. No replenishment since initial shipment

I know nothing about Lichdom. That's the point. I I don't underhand why the other two games aren't available for order but this game I have never even heard of, even though I'm pretty well informed, is available. I don't understand what dictates for best buy to accept preorders.

Because I can assure you, no one in our district has preordered lichdom, I only found out because it's on our website.

Are you expecting more than November Sales for both consoles or similar numbers or less numbers in 5 weeks of December against 4 weeks of November?
 
So...maybe PS4 did sell about 1.8-2 mill last month? Hard to really say,but these numbers are amazing

There's really no way of knowing because the US vs RotW split is fairly unpredictable during the holiday season coupled with uncertainty about the # of sales included from November.
 
There's really no way of knowing because the US vs RotW split is fairly unpredictable during the holiday season coupled with uncertainty about the # of sales included from November.

Yea. I went with a high 1.7 anyway. These numbers are quite impressive. Imagine what will happen when it drops to 249 or 199 permanently.

This means that the number of PS4s sold through to consumers is likely to be 2x the amount of XB1s sold in (~18 million going by their recent PR) WW.

That is completely insane. It isn't quite the PS2 all over again, but it is getting there.

PS4 sales in US are around 1/3 of the total. ~5 million in 45 days WW doesn't seem enough to hit 1.8m in NPD.

No real telling with how promotions were running during that time. Anywhere from 1.6-.18 could seem reasonable. Above that would be pretty "optimistic"
 
This means that the number of PS4s sold through to consumers is likely to be 2x the amount of XB1s sold in (~18 million going by their recent PR) WW.

PS4 sales in US are around 1/3 of the total. ~5 million in 45 days WW doesn't seem enough to hit 1.8m in NPD.

The normal split doesn't really apply to the holidays. Often times the US carries a lot more weight during the Christmas season. But it's never a predictable figure so you can't really say either way.
 
Yeah, we could try to estimate PS4 December sales in US, but we must first try to get what share of November numbers come from Black Friday period, if it's possible at all.
 
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