December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Hmm, this is still a pretty damn impressive number, but the PS4 sold below my expectations. I was expecting 36.5 million sold through.
Well this doesn't factor in digital obviously
this post brought to you by the letter s as in sarcasm
Hmmm... lets calculate US portion of sales....
US is 1/3 of PS4 userbase. So 5.7M for last 5 weeks of the year is 1.9M. But Oct1-Nov21 is missing. So, another 0.5-0.8M?
This quick calculation tells me that there is a very good chance of 2.5-2.8M PS4 sales for US alone in calendar Q4.
As for December itself... that is even more difficult to calculate. Late November had a lot of sales.
US is 1/3 of PS4 userbase. So 5.7M for last 5 weeks of the year is 1.9M. But Oct1-Nov21 is missing. So, another 0.5-0.8M?
This quick calculation tells me that there is a very good chance of 2.5-2.8M PS4 sales for US alone in calendar Q4.
As for December itself... that is even more difficult to calculate. Late November had a lot of sales.
Come on, man, no need for that, I just thought it would do better
We know that 30.2 million was before Black friday. So, 5.7 million is December + Black Friday
I believe the PS4 has sold probabily around 1.5m during Black Friday in November (WW), so, this leave 4.2m for December.
1.8-2.0m in USA would mean 43-48 % of total PS4 sales WW. That's too much.
Honestly, i predicted 36.5 mln, so, while is still impressive, is below my prediction.
I predicted 1.6m PS4 this NPD, so, now i will say 1.5 million.
Well, we will see haha.
I believe the PS4 has sold probabily around 1.5m during Black Friday in November (WW), so, this leave 4.2m for December.
1.8-2.0m in USA would mean 43-48 % of total PS4 sales WW. That's too much.
Honestly, i predicted 36.5 mln, so, while is still impressive, is below my prediction.
I predicted 1.6m PS4 this NPD, so, now i will say 1.5 million.
Well, we will see haha.
It depends on how much of November Sales were concentrated towards the tail end of the month. If 1 million were sold beyond Nov 22 in the US and you have about 300k in Japan since Nov 22(provided PS4 does more than 50k this week in Japan which is likely).
That leaves 3.5-4 million unaccounted for if the US has over 1.5 million for Dec NPD that would leave 2 million spread out across other regions.
That leaves 3.5-4 million unaccounted for if the US has over 1.5 million for Dec NPD that would leave 2 million spread out across other regions.
Come on, man, no need for that, I just thought it would do better
? The Spoiler part was in reference to my post not yours. It was meant as a joke.
I know, just seemed kinda harsh. I took it as a joke anyway, so no harm done, buddy.
Primethius
Banned
What was Sony's forecast for the year? I'm having trouble finding the thread.
38M SHIPPED by the end of calendar Q1 2016. But take not that we don't know the actual SHIPMENT number for last quarter of 2015. We know sold through numbers up to Jan3 2016.
In calendar Q1 2015 they had 2.4M shipment.
edit - fixed to be more accurate.
Primethius
Banned
Thanks!
Welfare
Member
slavesnyder
Member
It prints bundles.
Name your game, that's a interesting bundle.
Rainbow Six Siege not so much since is a mediocre tittle.
Some of the current bundles probably will not receive more shipments.
Welfare
Member
I doubt they are restocking any bundle from 2015. Those will be sold and gone when they are done selling.
It seems like for early 2016 they'll have these 2 bundles, and will most likely have a game specific bundle for a game they are marketing this spring. I'm going to guess we could see a Division bundle and a special Quantum Break bundle (probably a white model).
slavesnyder
Member
They only want to confuse GAF. By spreading out their sales on too many bundles they want to keep them out of amazon charts.
Like this, we have no means to predict them.
Gamestop probably will not sell this "Name Your Game Bundle" because isn't physical copy, so they will need more units of other 500GB bundle.
Welfare
Member
That's true. Maybe they'll introduce another bundle once enough 2015 bundles have cleared out.
DarthWalden
Banned
How does that name your game bundle work?
Do you put in the code and then it let's you pick the game? That's pretty genius if true.
Do you put in the code and then it let's you pick the game? That's pretty genius if true.
serversurfer
Member
That's likely to be damned near the lifetime sales of the Bone.
Multiple SKUs would help them retain shelf space at retail, because retail will stock three of each of the dozen bundles not being certain who wants what rather than the two dozen "Bones" they were actually likely to sell.
I imagine that retail will eventually tire of that strategy though.
Bundling has worked extremely well for sony.... id be shocked if we didn't see an Uncharted 4 bundle
Oh, you're eating a PS4. At least you had changed your avatar from Lucina prior, then. (It was Lucina previously, right?)
Primethius
Banned
We're gonna fight, me and you.
Lucina VS Tharja... i seriusly don't know.
They are my two waifu, i don't know who choose!
Maybe i should use an Inkling avatar
Welfare
Member
2014 was more than the Xbox One's LTD at that point.
theprodigy
Member
Hey what's with all the waifu posts, this isn't the February 2016 NPD prediction thread
Lucina VS Tharja... i seriusly don't know.
They are my two waifu, i don't know who choose!
Tharja's enthusiasm for the avatar is compelling, but there doesn't really seem to be a good future there. Lucina has a good soul. If Cordelia wasn't so obsessed with Chrom, she'd be great, but you almost don't want to deny her Chrom as an option by marrying her to someone else. Anybody she does marry would, by default, be a second choice.
Big Green Anus
Member
.
Well now we know it's 5.7 million so 1.8m in NPD may be possible.
5.7 million include Black Friday sales.
We know XB1 has sold > 750k in black Friday week in US alone, and PS4 was probabily a bit over that...
PS4 is < 5 million in December. Most likely < 4.5 million, since i see 1.5 million during Black Friday week (worldwide) very likely.
Obliterator
Member
PS4 should be up over November. Not hugely but it should be up
Big Green Anus
Member
I just look at some gameplay of Nights of Azure and it looks really good so far. Is the game similar to the Tales/Star Ocean series in terms of it being an action-rpg?
Edit: Nevermind, found my answer
Europe has always been doing fine with bundles for everything (and unoffical ones in every shop when there was no official alternative) so I don't see that as a problem. The only thing is to be careful about overshipping because clearances are needed when the bundled games are not fresh anymore.
theprodigy
Member
It's Tomb Raider, that's basically guaranteed and I'm surprised people didn't realize that. (though I didn't think it hit a million at first either lol)
I agree.
In France it sold 26,000 first week, and withouth bundle. ( i know bundle has not sold much, but still).
In UK was like 42,000 first week, so, UK+FRA is almost 70,000 ( maybe 70k with France bundle?)
If we include rest of Europe, i think is easy at least >100k FW in Europe. In USA it sold 200k, but in 3 weeks.
I can see Europe sales very close or even bigger than USA sales.
?????
Last month the number 10 was Just Dance with barely over 300k sales, and Battlefront sold 1,725,000 withouth bundle.
Easy.
cartographer
Member
Why wouldn't it? It's probably top 3.
Welfare
Member
Of course it will.
You're right i should had said top 5.
As i thought december's top 10 baseline is much higher, the game is in the second month and the bundle seem to had sold amazing, it had a chance to drop out.
I know it sounds crazy, but if wasn't by the game much reduced price i don't think it would had a chance. =P
Yeah, i think i just didn't remember well how much the game sold at launch. Disregard my previous stupid post.
Would have done more if Sony kept the 299 price but they opted for profit which is OK.
Zero-Crescent
Member
[3DS] 553k
[WIU] 379k
[XB1] 2000k
[PS4] 2100k
[WIU] 379k
[XB1] 2000k
[PS4] 2100k
Still very easy.
Should be able to sell > 1 million or very close to this, and honestly i think the only game that can beat it is Black Ops III and maybe Fallout.
But yeah, Fallout legs looks not that good, and with the film released, i will be a bit surprised if Fallout will beat it.