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Destiny |OT15| What Cheese May Come

H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
Trakan said:
I don't believe in some "poll your inventory" system either, but there's no way it's 100% completely random either.

Last night, I got a 4th horseman from skirmish. Two games later, zew gets one. Today, zew gets a Universal Remote from the Gorgon chest. Today, I get one from the Gorgon chest. I then get one from Nightfall as well. This isn't the first time things like this have happened.
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*sigh*

You have described a coincidence. Destiny doesn't care if it produces coincidences, hundreds of times a day. It doesn't care how weird it feels. It doesn't care.

Describe to me what 100% completely random would look like, in comparison? I think this may be where I'm getting lost; why the anecdotal experience you've related here is evidence of "not random."
I mean, the odds of things like this happening once let alone multiple times to one user is like if I was struck by lightning the day I won the lottery.
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eh.... the odds of being struck by lightning once in a given year are 1 in 1.2 million, I really doubt they're anywhere remotely close.
 
M

Mattiator

Member
Got another crota kill in and finally got the black hammer :) and he threw my Hunter a helm at the same time.... I must have been in his good books.
 
P

PrivateWHudson

Member
Hawkian said:
Hmmm. Did you despawn the enemies?

I absolutely disagree, not least of all because coding anything of the sort would be an undue burden. What benefit could such a system have that wouldn't be just as fulfilled by a truly random one? Especially with regard to exotic weapons, where a duplicate copy is literally identical...

I simply haven't seen any compelling evidence- none- of any kind of "poll your inventory" or "maintain a persistent record of past drops" voodoo going on. It all just seems completely random.

The problem is that if you're not looking at it from the perspective that a computer "looks" at it- without any care given as to how a player will feel about what happens- it seems like random should mean something other than what it really means. It seems like a random system should give you all kinds of crazy different loot all the time, rather than give you lots of the same item over and over again. How could that be random? But the die is cast without any regard for what happened the last time you rolled it. It doesn't care. And if we can accept that every non-Vex, non-Necrochasm, non-Bounty, non-Fate of all Fools Exotic weapon has an equal chance of rolling from a Nightfall, then when you get an Exotic weapon roll from your Nightfall it doesn't matter how many times you've gotten an item before... you have a 1/15 chance of getting it again.

Ah man. I hope you can bear with me for a minute here.

What you've said right here, this sentence, this is something I've seen before in these arguments. The truth (and I am absolutely sure what you've said is accurate) contained within, it seems... so fundamentally obvious, so necessary for this to be the case that I feel like I'm missing something. If I go wrong here, if my logic isn't sound, please point out how.

Okay. Let's limit our probabilities to just the potential rolls that could include Exotic weapons, and accept the premise that you successful roll for "an exotic weapon." The bounties aren't an option, nor the Vex/Necrochasm, nor FoaF. Assume PS4, that's 15 potential options.

If you have 0/15 Exotic weapons and you roll for an Exotic weapon, your percent chance of getting one you don't have before is 100%.
If you have 8/15 Exotic weapons and you roll for an Exotic weapon, your percent chance of getting one you don't have is 47%- worse odds than calling a coin flip successfully.
If you have 14/15 Exotic weapons and you roll for an Exotic weapon, your percent chance of getting one you don't have is 7%.

How could you not get dupes way more often than something unique, in a random system? After your first ever Exotic is acquired, your chances of getting something unique from any subsequent rolls decrease every time you do!

If, instead, it seemed far more likely for you to get an item you didn't have before than to get a duplicate- as though it were checking for items you already had, as you surmise Destiny may be doing already- this would be indicative of a non-random system; one guided to manipulate the results based on the player experience rather than unfeeling probabilities.


Yes! Why is this not yes?!

ahahaha. well okay.

"feel," "something in the code," "something off"; these are terms you want to stay clear of when looking at stuff like this. The most important concept to keep in mind if we're considering whether a system is random or not is that a random system doesn't care how something feels, how inconvenient or all-at-once amazing it is. It's just doing math and spitting out the results.

Hah, well there you go, this is more or less what I plan to do. With a team it's completely viable for Void burn as well, just super dangerous solo obviously.
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But what are the odds that I would get 5 MIDA multitools and Zero GHorns? What are the odds that I would get back to back No Land Beyond and Dragon's Breath, but Zero Thunderlords. I know I'm more likely to get a dupe than not, but a week with all purple engrams turning into fusion rifles with knee pads is just weird when there are so many other possible outcomes.

Last week every other exotic weapon drop that I saw during the three raids and nightfalls was a Monty Carlo. Could the RNG use something like the date or time to cough up a seemingly random but not truly random outcome? Seeing patterns that aren't there in randomness is hard to avoid... but doing the Gorgon chest back to back, and the same guy gets GHorn two times in a row when the other five people didn't even get an exotic either time is just mind bending.
 
B

Bogeypop

Member
Hawkian said:
Sure, i'm in. Wanna try it legit? :>
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gV9B6ZH.jpg
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.
 
S

spyder_ur

Member
schwagger15 said:
Had some good groups the last couple weeks, looking to put together a CE run tonight around 8ish, maybe a few minutes later. I'll be drinking, I think. Looking for a relaxed run. Desperately seeking boots on my Hunter and Warlock to get to 32.

1. Schwagger15 (spyder_ur) - 31 Hunter probably
2. Underdouble (31 Warlock)
3. Ethomaz
4.CaptScience
5. Forza_aldi
6. HOLD
Click to expand...

All set for a start time around 8:15 - gonna push it back just a little.
 
Stillmatic

Stillmatic

Member
Hawkian said:
Sooo, are hunters sol?
Click to expand...

I don't have a Hunter so have never tired, but have done it with my Titan and Warlock before the room was discovered. Surely there's a way for Hunters. You didn't even have to jump up onto the tower, that was just a good sniping spot. You just had to stay on the rock @ 1m15s (the highest point he gets to on that wall face) for a couple of seconds and they'd despawn.
 
T

Trakan

Member
Hawkian said:
*sigh*

You have described a coincidence. Destiny doesn't care if it produces coincidences, hundreds of times a day. It doesn't care how weird it feels. It doesn't care.

Describe to me what 100% completely random would look like, in comparison? I think this may be where I'm getting lost; why the anecdotal experience you've related here is evidence of "not random."

eh.... the odds of being struck by lightning once in a given year are 1 in 1.2 million, I really doubt they're anywhere remotely close.
Click to expand...

I once got two Plan Cs from back to back nightfalls in 30 minutes. I'm not going to pretend like I know how this RNG system works, but I'll throw something out there. So let's say the game rolls a number during nightfall #1. It decides what table my loot will be drawn from. I'm guessing the chance to get an exotic at all is pretty low compared to something like a legendary, materials, or coins. So I win that roll and I'm going to get an exotic. Now it's going to roll again to pick from 1 of X number of exotics (whatever the total is with weapons and armor included).

The odds of getting the exact same result within 30 minutes of each other cannot be good AT ALL. Is it a coincidence? Of course, but it's something where the odds are so awful that it makes no sense that it happens as often as it does.

PrivateWHudson said:
But what are the odds that I would get 5 MIDA multitools and Zero GHorns? What are the odds that I would get back to back No Land Beyond and Dragon's Breath, but Zero Thunderlords. I know I'm more likely to get a dupe than not, but a week with all purple engrams turning into fusion rifles with knee pads is just weird when there are so many other possible outcomes.
Click to expand...

This is what I'm wondering as well. Hawkian, I get that I have a 7% chance of getting the one exotic I don't have if I'm at 14/15. What are the chances that I get 7 Suros and 7 Truths before I get 1 Hawkmoon?
 
B

BokehKing

Banned
Did the nightfall twice now and I lay got legendary weapons (pulse rifles at that)
Wtf? Where are my exotics?

Have one more character left, I'll save that for someone looking to run it later
 
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