Very concise, though you failed to list KP's results.
IF you accept the premise that it's better to select teams than let them play it out at a qualifier, and IF you accept the premise that there should only be 8 teams competing in the Western Qualifier... the above closes the book on the matter.
However, there are those of us who are of the mind to see teams that are doing well compete, rather than have to have this sort of analysis to decide which teams are or are not worthy to compete for a spot at TI.
Ok...Kaipi's results? 1st in the JoinDota open in April. Versus 4FC. 2 roster changes since then. Gosuleague season 4 2nd place 6 months ago, with another 5 roster changes since then. Result before that? A year ago.
Sure, they take an individual series off of a big team every once and a while, but never when its a tournament the big teams care about. (With the exception of Empire in G1 League, but Empire kind of restructured because they were playing like garbage at that point.) They win in We Play, JD Masters, the EMS one mini-cups. (AL lost to them, but AL beat Na'Vi. I'd say AL's achievement is more impressive there.) They couldn't get through the SL prelims, they couldn't get through the G1 quals, etc.
Valve probably does not have a lot of confidence that this team will mesh well enough to stay together for another 3 months, and then focus hard enough in their bootcamp to have a chance to compete when all of the top teams will be playing their hardest.
Its nice to think that anybody could make their way into the competition of the best teams, but I'm with Valve in that I prefer to see that a team can stay together and perform for more than a month before they get a chance.