Emily Rogers: Why you should be excited about NX’s software output

The Wii is an outlier and anomoly... The DS came out 3 years before phones/tablets took off so yes they had the market cornered. They won't be selling that kind of number again.

So basically you have an outlier that sold to mums/dads/grandparents literally everyone. The type of market who aren't going to continue buying software or new hardware (As seen by the attach rate). And their other product of mention is having it's lunch eaten by smart phones and tablets. The core audience of Nintendo continue to dwindle when Nintendo can only just eek out more units than the failed Playstation Vita.

The best Nintendo can hope for is to play second fiddle to Sony/Microsoft where a NX might be an excellent second console. As for the handheld if they release one, provided the price is cheap I'm sure it will sell fine, but as far as home consoles are concerned Nintendo will not be setting the world on fire again.

That's being realistic folks, go and graph Nintendo home console sales and outside of the Wii have a look at the trend line. They are less and less relevant.

60 million people have a 3DS.

Nintendo still has an audience. Just 80% of that audience doesn't care about the Wii U specifically. Big difference.

If extrapolations are true then NX will be similar enough that Nintendo might honestly just consider it the umbrella for both their handheld and console. That will make sense as their core strategy.
 
60 million people have a 3DS.

Nintendo still has an audience. Just 80% of that audience doesn't care about the Wii U specifically. Big difference.

mmmm a little inflated I think... I myself bought 2 3DSs one at launch and another NN3DS so I don't know if that number is truly accurate. Heaps of people purchased the XL when it released. So maybe somewhere less than 60 is more true.
 
mmmm a little inflated I think... I myself bought 2 3DSs one at launch and another NN3DS so I don't know if that number is truly accurate. Heaps of people purchased the XL when it released. So maybe somewhere less than 60 is more true.

3DS was at 58 million at the end of 2015. You're right that there's probably double or even triple dippers, but that's still nothing to sneeze at.

I think Iwata's statement about NX being "a family of systems" really is the key. It goes along well with the internal restructuring and unification of the handheld and console divisions. There'll be multiple form factors, but at the core, they will be essentially variants of the single "Nintendo system" - or NX.
 
mmmm a little inflated I think... I myself bought 2 3DSs one at launch and another NN3DS so I don't know if that number is truly accurate. Heaps of people purchased the XL when it released. So maybe somewhere less than 60 is more true.

Every console base install number is distorted by that same logic, dude. That's the 360 RROD BS all over again.
 
See I just can't fully get behind that. I think with Wii U they saw they tried to appease Wii owners with that whole discount thing. And now we have NNID to connect devices and My Nintendo. I think they are taking steps to introduce the ability to carry over Wii U to NX VC games.

With that said I wouldn't be shocked if they don't.

My theory is that we'll have to buy them again but they plan on future proofing the OS by using the same one from the NX on much like iOS so we'll have our VC games without need to purchase again. I'm likely living in a pipe dream but that's the idea I get when Iwata mentioned the mobile directive in that one developer's meeting.
 
My theory is that we'll have to buy them again but they plan on future proofing the OS by using the same one from the NX on much like iOS so we'll have our VC games without need to purchase again. I'm likely living in a pipe dream but that's the idea I get when Iwata mentioned the mobile directive in that one developer's meeting.

meh. There's no reason why our VC purchases shouldn't be connected to My Nintendo and/or NNID.
 
Don't be negative! Be positive! You will live longer!

I understand your feelings. I'm worried about lack of third party support too.

Get a Wiiu if you can, no matter if it's second hand. There are many interesting games there. You will like it.

I'd have to find it really cheap at this point. I considered getting the holiday bundle. I kinda regret skipping on that.

And sorry, but it just seems extremely unlikely that there's anything Nintendo can do. The best bet would be to make it a slightly faster XBone or PS4 so third-parties can just carry over settings from those systems and only have to test the frame rate and send it out the door in most cases.
 
mmmm a little inflated I think... I myself bought 2 3DSs one at launch and another NN3DS so I don't know if that number is truly accurate. Heaps of people purchased the XL when it released. So maybe somewhere less than 60 is more true.
You can say this about pretty much most systems.
 
A bit off topic.. whenever people bring up "trends" or core audience its like they purposely leave out context of times and what was happening in the world. In 96 the Playstation arrived which was a serious competitor unlike 3do etc. Technology also changed which blind sided them.

In 2001 another major real threat showed up, the xbox.

Nintendo saw that coming and actually was ahead of the trend when the Wii launched and to say its only " grandmas" sounds like some propaganda nonsense. Was it grandmas who bought the ps2 or who is buying the ps4? Wii simply was the right product at the right time. And its not like Nintendo hasn't done it before. They did it with the DS and the NES. The Wii U was a failure but it taught them something.

Which is why i believe like any generation they can suceed and its not just "well theybare fucked they should accept it." They have to again hit on the right notes and actually have compelling marketing and a compelling product, but to say they have almost no chance is crazy.
 
I don't think the Virtual Console can sustain the same old model. I really hope they don't ask us to buy these games again. I mean it's 2016. Enough with that nonsense.

I wonder if Nintendo would roll out some type of subscription service for it. I don't know though.

We didn't have to rebuy on Wii U. Everything was playable in Wii mode and for a small fee on Wii U (when/if available) for updated functionality, which I thought was fair.

My guess? Wii U VC will carry over, not Wii.

We'll probably get some form of the 'drip drip' model again. I predict (based on nothing) that those with Wii U versions will have access to their full VC library from day 1 (from the NX menu, not a separate boot up/OS), while those without the carryover will have to wait until it is rereleased. Yeah, the drip sucks, but it makes sense that you'd get more sales that way than all at once.
 
Better than Sing Party or Lego City Stories.

I wouldn't be surpirsed if Lego City Undercover outsells Star Fox with a fraction of the install base.

It debuted at 18,00 in Japan and was at
146. [WIU] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.07.25} (¥5.985) - 67.720 / 67.720

by the end of 2013. I'm not sure SFZ can hit that but hopefully it can.

In NPD, it debuted over 100k and I think it's at least over 300k.
 
We didn't have to rebuy on Wii U. Everything was playable in Wii mode and for a small fee on Wii U (when/if available) for updated functionality, which I thought was fair.

My guess? Wii U VC will carry over, not Wii.

We'll probably get some form of the 'drip drip' model again. I predict (based on nothing) that those with Wii U versions will have access to their full VC library from day 1 (from the NX menu, not a separate boot up/OS), while those without the carryover will have to wait until it is rereleased. Yeah, the drip sucks, but it makes sense that you'd get more sales that way than all at once.

I already mentioned the fee/discount. But some people, small amount, got screwed over the transferring of data because it was backwards (imo).

But also if you wanted to play the games on Wii U, you had to buy it. I mean it's not a big deal but it's getting old.

As for the "drip" model...I mean it would be fine if Nintendo actually dripped every week and not every other month. Lets face it...their VC output has been very lackluster. Been that way since the late years of Wii.
 
60 million people have a 3DS.

Nintendo still has an audience. Just 80% of that audience doesn't care about the Wii U specifically. Big difference.

If you're only looking at 3DS' LTD, you're not paying attention.

To the best of my knowledge, 3DS sales peaked in mid-late 2012 and have been in decline since, absent a brief blip for the N3DS.

Obviously, their handheld market is healthier than their console market, but it's not at all something they can rely on, let alone a model they can look to for reviving their fortunes on console.
 
If you're only looking at 3DS' LTD, you're not paying attention.

To the best of my knowledge, 3DS sales peaked in mid-late 2012 and have been in decline since, absent a brief blip for the N3DS.

Obviously, their handheld market is healthier than their console market, but it's not at all something they can rely on, let alone a model they can look to for reviving their fortunes on console.

I know all that. Was simply pointing out that looking at Wii U alone as the barometer for who's willing to buy Nintendo hardware is misleading. The 3DS isn't the healthiest around either but it's at least doing better.
 
I already mentioned the fee/discount. But some people, small amount, got screwed over the transferring of data because it was backwards (imo).

But also if you wanted to play the games on Wii U, you had to buy it. I mean it's not a big deal but it's getting old.

As for the "drip" model...I mean it would be fine if Nintendo actually dripped every week and not every other month. Lets face it...their VC output has been very lackluster. Been that way since the late years of Wii.

Their entire NES and SNES catalogue should be available day one. As an extra incentive to jump in early. They can drip N64, GCN, Wii and WiiU releases later. If it were up to me, the entire catalogue would be up day one just to make sure to get the platform in as many hands as possible, but i guess that's not going to be possible, and even if it were, they wouldn't do it. But the NES/SNES games could be enough for many people to get in early, without eating into the new NX games.

mmmm a little inflated I think... I myself bought 2 3DSs one at launch and another NN3DS so I don't know if that number is truly accurate. Heaps of people purchased the XL when it released. So maybe somewhere less than 60 is more true.

As with any console ever released. Friends of mine had to buy their PS2 no less than 4 (four!) times. Obviously one didn't survive the modding stage, and two others just died.
 
I already mentioned the fee/discount. But some people, small amount, got screwed over the transferring of data because it was backwards (imo).

But also if you wanted to play the games on Wii U, you had to buy it. I mean it's not a big deal but it's getting old.

As for the "drip" model...I mean it would be fine if Nintendo actually dripped every week and not every other month. Lets face it...their VC output has been very lackluster. Been that way since the late years of Wii.

3DS, definitely. Before they gave up on VC (aside from the recent SNES and Pokemon games), we were getting games here and there, every few few weeks. But for what it's worth, Wii U has gotten at least one (usually just one) VC game since they properly launched the service on that console. Of course there aren't nearly as many games, but at least its been consistent.

I don't want to sound like I'm siding with Nintendo too much. I agree with your main point that the games should carry over (now or starting with NX).
 
Their entire NES and SNES catalogue should be available day one. As an extra incentive to jump in early. They can drip N64, GCN, Wii and WiiU releases later. If it were up to me, the entire catalogue would be up day one just to make sure to get the platform in as many hands as possible, but i guess that's not going to be possible, and even if it were, they wouldn't do it. But the NES/SNES games could be enough for many people to get in early, without eating into the new NX games.

As with any console ever released. Friends of mine had to buy their PS2 no less than 4 (four!) times. Obviously one didn't survive the modding stage, and two others just died.

I have the unfortunate feeling they're going to drip-feed everything again.

Especially because of how much worse the emulation of VC games is on Wii U compared to Wii, despite the added features.
 
The Wii is an outlier and anomoly... The DS came out 3 years before phones/tablets took off so yes they had the market cornered. They won't be selling that kind of number again.

So basically you have an outlier that sold to mums/dads/grandparents literally everyone. The type of market who aren't going to continue buying software or new hardware (As seen by the attach rate). And their other product of mention is having it's lunch eaten by smart phones and tablets. The core audience of Nintendo continue to dwindle when Nintendo can only just eek out more units than the failed Playstation Vita.

The best Nintendo can hope for is to play second fiddle to Sony/Microsoft where a NX might be an excellent second console. As for the handheld if they release one, provided the price is cheap I'm sure it will sell fine, but as far as home consoles are concerned Nintendo will not be setting the world on fire again.

That's being realistic folks, go and graph Nintendo home console sales and outside of the Wii have a look at the trend line. They are less and less relevant.

So Sony is not relevant too. They lost nearly 80 million gamers between the PS2 and the PS3. The PS2 was an outliner and sold to mums/dads and so called "core gamers".
Really, your arguments are VERY weak.

We will see what happens with the NX but just saying that Nintendo is not relevant anymore is just not true. Its completly nonsense. Their games sell millions of copies. Numbers other titles would dream of. Where is your hardcore audience on PS4 which can't even buy 5 million copies of Bloodborne but 10 million of Fifa?
Face the truth: there aren't many hardcore gamers. Just people who casuall play sometimes in their freetime and that is still the crowd you need to get. Thats the crowd you get mostly with power or a special idea like the controller of the Wii.
 
Their entire NES and SNES catalogue should be available day one. As an extra incentive to jump in early. They can drip N64, GCN, Wii and WiiU releases later. If it were up to me, the entire catalogue would be up day one just to make sure to get the platform in as many hands as possible, but i guess that's not going to be possible, and even if it were, they wouldn't do it. But the NES/SNES games could be enough for many people to get in early, without eating into the new NX games.

Hmm we'll see. I'm hoping we see GCN make there way in. I believe they considered it for Wii U but I guess they either figured it was not worth it or they had a very hard time with emulating it.
 
So Sony is not relevant too. They lost nearly 80 million gamers between the PS2 and the PS3. The PS2 was an outliner and sold to mums/dads and so called "core gamers".
Really, your arguments are VERY weak.

We will see what happens with the NX but just saying that Nintendo is not relevant anymore is just not true. Its completly nonsense. Their games sell millions of copies. Numbers other titles would dream of. Where is your hardcore audience on PS4 which can't even buy 5 million copies of Bloodborne but 10 million of Fifa?
Face the truth: there aren't many hardcore gamers. Just people who casuall play sometimes in their freetime and that is still the crowd you need to get. Thats the crowd you get mostly with power or a special idea like the controller of the Wii.

Nintendo aren't getting that crowd.... Nintendo never get the Fifa crowd or the Call of Duty people, hell they didn't even get Minecraft till recently. Nintendo only ever get Nintendo fans, of which the pool is shrinking. Nostalgia only carries a company so far. I'm certain there are people who bought into the Wii U and feel burned and won't be buying a Nintendo home console at launch again. So I guess the pool is shrinking even more. Oh you know what Nintendo make sweet bank off? Amiibo, I know how excited I am for more Amiibos /sarcasm

Nintendo will never go toe-to-toe with Sony or Microsoft as the #1 home console choice. In that space they are irrelevant, they will likely be a second console for people wanting to play the 5-6 first-party games they release from their major franchises. I don't know why this is even a contentious point? N64/Gamecube/Wii U all played second place (Wii U was 3rd I guess) So they smashed it out with a Wii, let's see what gimmick they can come up with to try and win the 'casual' mums/dads again.

I'll put my money on them selling ~15million units by the end of it's life. I'm more than happy to be wrong but I'm just being realistic.
 
Nintendo aren't getting that crowd.... Nintendo never get the Fifa crowd or the Call of Duty people, hell they didn't even get Minecraft till recently. Nintendo only ever get Nintendo fans, of which the pool is shrinking. Nostalgia only carries a company so far. I'm certain there are people who bought into the Wii U and feel burned and won't be buying a Nintendo home console at launch again. So I guess the pool is shrinking even more. Oh you know what Nintendo make sweet bank off? Amiibo, I know how excited I am for more Amiibos /sarcasm

Nintendo will never go toe-to-toe with Sony or Microsoft as the #1 home console choice. In that space they are irrelevant, they will likely be a second console for people wanting to play the 5-6 first-party games they release from their major franchises. I don't know why this is even a contentious point? N64/Gamecube/Wii U all played second place (Wii U was 3rd I guess) So they smashed it out with a Wii, let's see what gimmick they can come up with to try and win the 'casual' mums/dads again.

I'll put my money on them selling ~15million units by the end of it's life. I'm more than happy to be wrong but I'm just being realistic.

That's some pretty hardcore Nintendoom, there. Really, I think if they made a concerted effort to make things easy on third parties (which I hear they have), they could stand to pull in a lot of those people, considering they typically have better exclusives than Sony or MS.

Also, if their "gimmick" is what I think it is, it may actually make NX a very attractive choice for other reasons.
 
Nintendo aren't getting that crowd.... Nintendo never get the Fifa crowd or the Call of Duty people, hell they didn't even get Minecraft till recently. Nintendo only ever get Nintendo fans, of which the pool is shrinking. Nostalgia only carries a company so far. I'm certain there are people who bought into the Wii U and feel burned and won't be buying a Nintendo home console at launch again. So I guess the pool is shrinking even more. Oh you know what Nintendo make sweet bank off? Amiibo, I know how excited I am for more Amiibos /sarcasm

Nintendo will never go toe-to-toe with Sony or Microsoft as the #1 home console choice. In that space they are irrelevant, they will likely be a second console for people wanting to play the 5-6 first-party games they release from their major franchises. I don't know why this is even a contentious point? N64/Gamecube/Wii U all played second place (Wii U was 3rd I guess) So they smashed it out with a Wii, let's see what gimmick they can come up with to try and win the 'casual' mums/dads again.

I'll put my money on them selling ~15million units by the end of it's life. I'm more than happy to be wrong but I'm just being realistic.

Nintendo needs to cater to families. And by that i don't mean by promoting Mario Party 27, but by targeting every family member individually as well. This is where their chance lies. I've been saying this since the Wii hype died down, and it could have boosted the WiiU, but they failed to do so. Not everybody (and certainly not every parent) is keen on buying 2 or 3 consoles. It would drive hardware sales and it would improve 3rd party relations.

Why use a long 20 second ad for one game only? Why not present the featuring game for 10 seconds and use the other 10 seconds for a splash reel, showing diversity? If you're showing the ad for the new Mario 3D World X, end with a reel where you show that there are also games such as Call of Duty, FIFA, Singstar, Super Mario Maker, Resident Evil/ZombiU, Mario Party, Deus Ex, Brain Training... Basically feature one game, and end with part of the portfolio. Why not actively promote a 30 year Virtual Console catalogue? Show that there is something there for every one, for mom (Brain Training), for Dad (Resident Evil, Mario) for teenage boy (CoD, & Fifa) for teenage girl (Singstar) and for 8 year old boy/girl (plenty of stuff) and something for the entire group (Mario Party, Mario Kart...).

They need to start convincing the families because they can and should. And if teenage boy is a hardcore gamer that needs more than CoD, Fifa and whatever Nintendo can get... let's say they can't get GTA... well, he can always save up for his XBone or Neo. I know that in the US there is much more of a "multiple console" tradition, but this is not true for many other parts of the world i think.
 
The Wii is an outlier and anomoly... The DS came out 3 years before phones/tablets took off so yes they had the market cornered. They won't be selling that kind of number again.

So basically you have an outlier that sold to mums/dads/grandparents literally everyone. The type of market who aren't going to continue buying software or new hardware (As seen by the attach rate). And their other product of mention is having it's lunch eaten by smart phones and tablets. The core audience of Nintendo continue to dwindle when Nintendo can only just eek out more units than the failed Playstation Vita.

The best Nintendo can hope for is to play second fiddle to Sony/Microsoft where a NX might be an excellent second console. As for the handheld if they release one, provided the price is cheap I'm sure it will sell fine, but as far as home consoles are concerned Nintendo will not be setting the world on fire again.

That's being realistic folks, go and graph Nintendo home console sales and outside of the Wii have a look at the trend line. They are less and less relevant.


3ds....

Beside that, the market is getting bigger with vr, steam.....
* Ps4 is also not selling like it should be (like the did with ps2 and even ps3).
* Apple does have the same issue with iphone.
* Xbox one sales are bad.
 
Morning, all. Happy Friday! Exciting to think in just a few days we should know some stuff.

I wanted to touch on the VC issue. One thing I didn't see mentioned is that Iwata-san, IIRC, discussed at an investor briefing a couple years back that Wii U VC functionality was being developed with the plan to integrate it's architecture going forward, to roll it into future platforms if I understood correctly. I want to say it was when they unveiled GBA or DS VC. So given that, I actually think it's entirely possible they will drop at least all SNES and older (as suggested by another poster above) VC on day one. They may even just bring over everything from Wii U on day one. It might harm sales of some smaller VC games, but OTOH at this point they've probably seen beyond their wildest dreams for some older niche software, and we know that evergreen sellers will likely continue to sell excellently.

My feeling, BTW, is that as a gesture to Wii U owners, Nintendo may just allow all VC to carry over. Or alternatively they may decrease the upgrade fee. The thing is, if they do drop everything day one, and upgrading is say $1.50 per game, if you've got 50 VC games that's $75 extra Nintendo is suggesting you drop at once. Well, potentially. There are different ways to look at it. But I do believe it's possible Nintendo will grandfather in Wii U VC.

As to GCN, I suppose eventually Nintendo would probably like to have all of its past first party software on VC, at least those that don't have rights issues. However, GCN was never more than rumored for Wii U and the reliance on analog means if NX doesn't have analog triggers in its controller(s) GCN may continue to not be worth the resources. I think there are some games that would do excellently on the service, like Melee, but I'm not convinced they'll jump on this as a priority.
 
3ds....

Beside that, the market is getting bigger with vr, steam.....
* Ps4 is also not selling like it should be (like the did with ps2 and even ps3).
* Apple does have the same issue with iphone.
* Xbox one sales are bad.
Huh? PS4 isn't selling quite as much as PS2, but it's selling extremely well regardless. And as far as I know, PS4 is selling a lot more than PS3 did at least within its first years.

XB1 sales aren't good compared to PS4, but they're not really bad either.

edit: this is getting off topic though.

Anyway, personally I'm slightly excited to see what they'll have in store for NX, but not that much. I'd like to think Nintendo manages to handle things better this time around, but we'll see.
 
Huh? PS4 isn't selling quite as much as PS2, but it's selling extremely well regardless. And as far as I know, PS4 is selling a lot more than PS3 did at least within its first years.

XB1 sales aren't good compared to PS4, but they're not really bad either.

edit: this is getting off topic though.

Anyway, personally I'm slightly excited to see what they'll have in store for NX, but not that much. I'd like to think Nintendo manages to handle things better this time around, but we'll see.

Agreed.
 
Anyway, personally I'm slightly excited to see what they'll have in store for NX, but not that much. I'd like to think Nintendo manages to handle things better this time around, but we'll see.

This is how everyone should be right now (though levels of excitement should vary - just no one should overblow it).
 
This is how everyone should be right now (though levels of excitement should vary - just no one should overblow it).

Nintendo's kinda weird in that they either nail it and blow away my expectations (even when I'm hyped), or do something that would disappoint me even if I had very little expectations.
 
I'm personally excited to see the next generation of Nintendo games. That's all I need to go into hype mode :)

So, how many days until the investor meeting outlining their next fiscal blah blah blah again?
 
I'm personally excited to see the next generation of Nintendo games. That's all I need to go into hype mode :)

So, how many days until the investor meeting outlining their next fiscal blah blah blah again?

5 days I believe. Not expecting much personally, some unveiling timeframes maybe.
 
Morning, all. Happy Friday! Exciting to think in just a few days we should know some stuff.

I wanted to touch on the VC issue. One thing I didn't see mentioned is that Iwata-san, IIRC, discussed at an investor briefing a couple years back that Wii U VC functionality was being developed with the plan to integrate it's architecture going forward, to roll it into future platforms if I understood correctly. I want to say it was when they unveiled GBA or DS VC. So given that, I actually think it's entirely possible they will drop at least all SNES and older (as suggested by another poster above) VC on day one. They may even just bring over everything from Wii U on day one. It might harm sales of some smaller VC games, but OTOH at this point they've probably seen beyond their wildest dreams for some older niche software, and we know that evergreen sellers will likely continue to sell excellently.

My feeling, BTW, is that as a gesture to Wii U owners, Nintendo may just allow all VC to carry over. Or alternatively they may decrease the upgrade fee. The thing is, if they do drop everything day one, and upgrading is say $1.50 per game, if you've got 50 VC games that's $75 extra Nintendo is suggesting you drop at once. Well, potentially. There are different ways to look at it. But I do believe it's possible Nintendo will grandfather in Wii U VC.

As to GCN, I suppose eventually Nintendo would probably like to have all of its past first party software on VC, at least those that don't have rights issues. However, GCN was never more than rumored for Wii U and the reliance on analog means if NX doesn't have analog triggers in its controller(s) GCN may continue to not be worth the resources. I think there are some games that would do excellently on the service, like Melee, but I'm not convinced they'll jump on this as a priority.

You can still use your GCN controllers though, through the USB hub.
 
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