Welp.
Final-ish anecdotal rates are up for the Ifrit Raid.
Funny thing..... Y'shtola DID have the standard 1% rainbow draw rate....
... *** IF *** the pull decided to roll on the unit draw table, then it followed roughly normal banner gacha rates.
BUT.... you had a 1 in 8 chance on a pull to actually roll on the unit table.... and then a 1 in 100 chance after that of rolling a rainbow crystal.
Therefore, Y'shtola's draw rate was 1 in 800, or 0.125%.
Odds of pulling a single Y'sh:
Y'sh in 100 pulls (100k points): 11.8%
Y'sh in 500 pulls (500k points): 46.5%
Y'sh in 1200 pulls (1.2m points - the guarantee): 77.7%
Y'sh in 2000 pulls (2.0m points): 91.8%
Y'sh in 2500 pulls (2.5m points): 95.6%
In English:
Approximately 1 in 4 people serverwide that could get to the guaranteed Y'sh at 1.2m points still hadn't drawn her.
Approximately 1 in 12 people still didn't draw her by 2 million points.
At slightly less than 2.5 million points, there was still a in 1 in 20 chance (the natural chance of a pulling on-banner gold unit [assuming one per banner]) of STILL not pulling a Y'sh.
Ladies and gentleman, those are some CRAP odds right there.