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[emb]

Nope, lets take a simple case

H -> T
H ->H
T ->T
T ->H

if i get heads in my first throw, what is the chance of getting heads again?
What you are thinking about is "what is the chance that in 2 throws I get 2 heads in a row?" that is 25%, but, as you see, after getting the first head, the second coin has 50% chances of getting another head

I don't understand how this analogy is related.

The original idea was showing that with enough enemies coming at you, crits can potentially be pretty likely. I don't think any one was talking about the chance of any specific one enemy getting a crit, but rather the chance of 1 or more enemies hitting a critical out of the twenty that tried.

So with the coins, I don't care if both are heads, the first or the second. I care if it ever hits the ground with Lincoln facing upwards, killing my character and forcing me to reset the chapter I've been playing for the past hour.

 

[Incendiary]

So I was all set to pair off Owain and Cynthia because they're both awesome and adorable together.

And then I thought about it.

Cynthia is Chrom and Sumia's daughter. Owain is Lissa and Ricken's son. That makes them first cousins. And yet they still have an S rank.

*slowly backs them both out of marriage*

 

[chickdigger802]

These are who I got left.

Olivia
Maribelle
Panne

kellam
libra
gregor
virion


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

[B-Dubs]

I don't understand how this analogy is related.

The original idea was showing that with enough enemies coming at you, crits can potentially be pretty likely. I don't think any one was talking about the chance of any specific one enemy getting a crit, but rather the chance of 1 or more enemies hitting a critical out of the twenty that tried.

So with the coins, I don't care if both are heads, the first or the second. I care if it ever hit the ground with Lincoln facing upwards, killing my character and forcing me to reset the chapter I've been playing for the past hour.

What was said earlier though is that in the given map there is about a 50% chance that one of your guys will be killed by a crit. What he's getting at is that though a crit becomes more likely as we continue rolls, each individual roll still has the same chance for a crit. So while the odds of one may go up, each individual roll has the same chance of it happening regardless of what happened in the previous rolls.

 

[Anteo]

I don't understand how this analogy is related.

The original idea was showing that with enough enemies coming at you, crits can potentially be pretty likely. I don't think any one was talking about the chance of any specific one enemy getting a crit, but rather the chance of 1 or more enemies hitting a critical out of the twenty that tried.

So with the coins, I don't care if both are heads, the first or the second. I care if it ever hit the ground with Lincoln facing upwards, killing my character and forcing me to reset the chapter I've been playing for the past hour.

In any case, you have a very case of bad luck, since the enemy doens't really have that 3% chance, the way the RNG works is that it rolls twice, get an average and that number is compared with the chance. So you are actually getting screwed by 2 rolls that are less than 3 in a row.

 

[Boney]

we should talk more about the rng gods and less about math

 

[Draxal]

Okay, I guess the name of Fe6 is officially binding sword thanks to Owain.

 

[Basileus777]

Has anyone made good use of DLC/spotpass characters? The inability to use supports is pretty crippling considering how massive the S rank stat bonuses are, and I'm not sure they are really worth using.

 

[B-Dubs]

we should talk more about the rng gods and less about math

I've found they'll leave you alone if you sacrifice a goat before starting a session.

 

[dakkumauji]

Okay, I guess the name of Fe6 is officially binding sword thanks to Owain.

Ehhhh, I guess that works.

 

[Roto13]

Has anyone made good use of DLC/spotpass characters? The inability to use supports is pretty crippling considering how massive the S rank stat bonuses are, and I'm not sure they are really worth using.

I used Pr. Marth for a while, but I eventually kicked him out in favour of someone capable of building support relationships.

 

[Mr. Fix]

All children recruited. Now to pair them all up!

Hmm, looks like one female is gonna be forever alone though...

Spoiler

Sorry Kjelle.

She don't need no man.

Has anyone made good use of DLC/spotpass characters? The inability to use supports is pretty crippling considering how massive the S rank stat bonuses are, and I'm not sure they are really worth using.

I only ever use them if they give me an odd number of units to deploy.

 

[emb]

What was said earlier though is that in the given map there is about a 50% chance that one of your guys will be killed by a crit. What he's getting at is that though a crit becomes more likely as we continue rolls, each individual roll still has the same chance for a crit. So while the odds of one may go up, each individual roll has the same chance of it happening regardless of what happened in the previous rolls.

I suppose we're all on the same page with our math then. At this point I guess what I'm failing to see is why people claimed he was wrong. Seems very clear he was talking about the odds of 20 binomial trials resulting in at least one successful crit.

Just some napkin math, but if you fight 20 consecutive enemies, each that has just a 3% chance of critical, that comes to almost a 50% chance one of your dudes is getting sacrificed to the RNG gods.

I'm not sure how he gets almost 50%... adding would give 60, working it out correctly would give 0.54. (Edit: Gotcha. I'm dumb.) I just don't hear where he or any one is saying "after 19 crits the last one has a 50/50 shot" or anything remotely similar. At that point I'm just arguing semantics that don't really matter any more, so I'll drop it lol.

In any case, you have a very case of bad luck, since the enemy doens't really have that 3% chance, the way the RNG works is that it rolls twice, get an average and that number is compared with the chance. So you are actually getting screwed by 2 rolls that are less than 3 in a row.

Wow, that's interesting. The numbers aren't actually evenly distributed, but tend towards the middle values?

 

[Kincaido]

Okay, I guess the name of Fe6 is officially binding sword thanks to Owain.

Sword of Seals sounds better to me, but it works.

 

[KO Traveling Hobo]

So not to stir anything I don't mean to stir, but does it only bother me that the Avatar does not have skin tone options?

Considering that all of the other characters in the game have generic anime skin with varying degrees of tanning and the Avatar is a bookish sort, it doesn't seem like a particularly surprising omission.

Not that the option shouldn't be there, mind you. The character creation is pretty barebones other than hair and age.

 

[Draxal]

Has anyone made good use of DLC/spotpass characters? The inability to use supports is pretty crippling considering how massive the S rank stat bonuses are, and I'm not sure they are really worth using.

They're good rally bots.

 

[KO Traveling Hobo]

Guys, just beat chapter 2. quick question:is there a best practice when deciding who converses with who in the "support" menu? Any tips there?

Follow your heart.

 

[emb]

Guys, just beat chapter 2. quick question:is there a best practice when deciding who converses with who in the "support" menu? Any tips there?

Pick out whichever couples you like to have S level supports. Outside of that, support everyone with everyone. One S (marriage) per person, but no other limits.

 

[Busaiku]

Argh, Chapter 12 looks like I can't just rush it.
Bah, and I got everyone to 20 too.

 

[Kazerei]

I'm not sure how he gets almost 50%... adding would give 60, working it out correctly would give 0.54. I just don't hear where he or any one is saying "after 19 crits the last one has a 50/50 shot" or anything remotely similar. At that point I'm just arguing semantics that don't really matter any more, so I'll drop it lol.

The probability of not receiving a critical hit is 0.54. Which means the probability of getting fucked up real good is 0.46.

And this is why I just play on Hard/Casual and let 'em die

 

[VT_Brian]

I'm not sure how he gets almost 50%... adding would give 60, working it out correctly would give 0.54. ?

Isn't it (.97)^20 =.544 which is the chance of making it through the 20 enemies without getting critically hit, so (1-.544) = .456 is the chance of at least one enemy out of 20 getting a critical hit. Then he just rounded to "almost 50%"

edit: Beat

 

[firehawk12]

So I'm at the point where I need to reclass my MU and I have no idea what to switch to. What are some interesting skills that I should get? There are so many options and I have no idea what to do. lol

 

[Teknoman]

Chapter 5 is giving me the blues lol. Hard mode really lives up to its name. Time to check some spot pass stuff.

 

[Anteo]

Wow, that's interesting. The numbers aren't actually evenly distributed, but tend towards the middle values?

I remember reading that more than one time and not only in this thread. Though it'd be really nice to get some info as in what chances affect. I don't think it applies for level ups.

 

[Roto13]

So I'm at the point where I need to reclass my MU and I have no idea what to switch to. What are some interesting skills that I should get? There are so many options and I have no idea what to do. lol

Thief skills (lockpicking and move+1) are good for everybody.

 

[firehawk12]

Thief skills (lockpicking and move+1) are good for everybody.

Sounds like a plan. Is galeforce worth going for as well? How many reclasses can you do before the game reduces your XP gain to near zero?

 

[chickdigger802]

So I'm at the point where I need to reclass my MU and I have no idea what to switch to. What are some interesting skills that I should get? There are so many options and I have no idea what to do. lol

dark knight for that lvl 15 skill (build wise they are kinda grandmasters on horsies). Then w/e you desire.

would side more to what you initially picked for asset/flaw.

 

[Busaiku]

I don't like that there's no Steal.

 

[Tan]

I don't know why I was expecting it, but I was super disappointed to find out that the children can't have children.

 

[chickdigger802]

Sounds like a plan. Is galeforce worth going for as well? How many reclasses can you do before the game reduces your XP gain to near zero?

just remember galeforce is only a girl skill for mu.

I don't think exp can get lower than... what 8exp per kill?

 

[encephalon]

Are reinforcements really cheap or am I just not understanding? So far I can't anything that warns you about what turn they'll show up. I have the Japanese version, so it just might not be immediately clear to me where they appear.

 

[firehawk12]

just remember galeforce is only a girl skill for mu.

I don't think exp can get lower than... what 8exp per kill?

Girls > boys after all!

 

[Kincaido]

Just ran through Chapter 10 with Chrom and Avatar paired with their waifus on hard. Pretty sure I overleveled now :x

 

[madp]

How many people here are using DLC maps to supplement leveling? I'm tempted to, but I'm also afraid of robbing the game of challenge.

another random question: are Beast Killer lances useful in the early game?

 

[encephalon]

On my hard run I somehow managed to get my avatar with a class change and 5 levels on top of that (25 or so total).

 

[KO Traveling Hobo]

How many people here are using DLC maps to supplement leveling? I'm tempted to, but I'm also afraid of robbing the game of challenge.

another random question: are Beast Killer lances useful in the early game?

Grinding is for chumps.

I don't remember now, but if you're running into a fair amount of cavaliers and/or peg knights, then it's definitely worth picking up. Beast Killers absolutely wreck those classes.

 

[chickdigger802]

Girls > boys after all!

yep, which is why my avatar's kid is awesome <3

 

[sorakirosaki]

So I guess I should get to recruiting all the children ASAP (still on CH 14 of the main quest tho). Although, I'm waiting to hit level 15 on some of my master sealed guys so the kids can inherit their skill.

u can recruit them at any time however make sure the parents them selves are strong stats wise as their stats will reflect on the childs stats initially s if you recruit to fast the child might suck

plan before attempting a chapter (thats what im doing after messing up all the kids i got my first pt)

 

[Freezie KO]

Anyone have any tips for Chapter 9 on Lunatic? This chapter is seriously making me question if IntSys forgot to playtest this one. Those reinforcements are way too much...

Oh, and "grinding" isn't a tip... I'm trying to do this by just playing the Chapters and Paralogues.

 

[ReconPeon]

I just got this game yesterday. It is so perfect.

 

[Teknoman]

Anyone have any tips for Chapter 9 on Lunatic? This chapter is seriously making me question if IntSys forgot to playtest this one. Those reinforcements are way too much...

Oh, and "grinding" isn't a tip... I'm trying to do this by just playing the Chapters and Paralogues.

Honestly sometimes on the harder difficulties, the random units are just as strong too.

 

[madp]

Grinding is for chumps.

I don't remember now, but if you're running into a fair amount of cavaliers and/or peg knights, then it's definitely worth picking up. Beast Killers absolutely wreck those classes.

The thing is, even the opportunity to grind in FE feels strange to me because a staple of the franchise (well, of the games I've played from it) is that there's a limited quantity of exp in the game so you have to be careful about how you distribute it. I know that there have always been ways to circumvent this like arenas in FE7, the tower/ruins in FE8, bonus exp in FE9, etc. but I've always generally tried to avoid those whenever possible.

I just don't feel like I'm making good enough progress on my supports and the money situation is bad, but I guess I'll persevere.

No cavaliers or pegasus knights yet, so I assume I'll encounter one or both classes soon. I'm thinking of investing in a Beast Killer for Sumia so that she can draw the attention of other pegasus knights and not get slaughtered herself.

 

[timnich]

For Chapter 10( I think), do I have to worry about the thieves running off the field? Or can I take my time getting to them? Because they are carrying some pretty nice items, but it feels impossible to get all of them if they can exit the field

Just gonna post this again, maybe someone knows?

 

[dakkumauji]

Just gonna post this again, maybe someone knows?

Depending on your difficulty, but at least for Normal, they didn't start running till my units started getting close. So, if you are worried about the far thief, send some mounted units its way and you should be able to catch up to him.

 

[SolarKnight]

Just gonna post this again, maybe someone knows?

I'm not sure how long it takes for them to run away, but with your flying and mounted units it's not really much of a problem really. What I did was pair up Sumia with her lover and give her the duty of killing the thieves that were the furthest away while everyone else took care of the rest.

This was on normal though.

 

[chickdigger802]

I've never really been a fan of higher difficulties for FE game. Just let me comp stomp and level up my waifus in peace.

 

[Kenai]

So not to stir anything I don't mean to stir, but does it only bother me that the Avatar does not have skin tone options?

I hope not since as I mentioned before somewhere it's probably my biggest problem with the game. The game is so packed with content (and has several characters with darker skin tones in it) that I really wish they had thrown that in, especially since

Spoiler

both Plegia and Ferox seem to have a lot of dark skinned non-generic characters

. It's a minor complaint for me though, compared to all of the new things they added/old good ones they brought back, so I've forgiven them for now. Besides, the real stirring pot thing has been

Spoiler

no homosexual S class relationships possible (aka gay marriage)

, and from what I can tell that's been a pretty tame discussion too.

 

[peaceiscloser]

I hope not since as i mentioned before somewhere it's probably my biggest problem with the game. The game is so packed with content (and has several characters with darker skin tones in it) that I really wish they had thrown that in. It's a minor complaint for me though, compared to all of the new things they added/old good ones they brought back, so I've forgiven them for now.

I think the lack of skin tones wasn't necessarily just an aesthetic oversight -- I think it might have to do with the models for the different classes being light skinned for the most part. Even Basilio, being one of the darker characters, uses the default body model for his class, and it seems like all they did was switch out his head. It's kinda funny because his head and body are two different skin tones.

 

[OceanBlue]

Just gonna post this again, maybe someone knows?

On hard, they disappear from the top left corner of the map. Basically, once they reach the boss, they can escape.

 

[timnich]

Thanks for the replies, it's going to be easier to plan this now that I know they can exit the field. At the very least, I'll make sure to get the ones with the items I want first.