Okay, I want to start my analysis of D1s end from post 1283. Why? Because at this point, I have 3 votes, bronx-man has 3 votes, faddy has 3 votes, acohrs has 2 votes, swamped has 2 votes, squidyj has 2 votes, and theres a number of people on 1 vote. This is an ideal situation for scum: theres a highly diverse set of wagons they can get going. Anyone with at least 2 votes is a contender to turn into a last minute lynch evidence of this being squidyj. Scum have a number of goals in this situation. The first is obviously to avoid scum being lynched. So we want to look out for abortive wagons, where theres a lot of fos, but not much voting. The second is to avoid leaving a trail. Its always a lesson worth remembering in Mafia that most wagons on town are composed of other town. Scum only need to do a few pokes here and there and get town to follow them, and the rest of scum team will be defending the main wagon (but not too hard). So what we want to look out for is people arguing against the eventual victim (squidyj), but only in a very lukewarm manner, not enough to actually avert it. Could scum bus? Possibly, but very unlikely and Im not going to consider it in this post. Theres just no need to do so at such an early stage in the game.
Sorian argues for Bronx over Swamped. So, what are our possibilities if Sorian is scum? Swamped is scum, Sorian is protecting. Swamped is not scum, Sorian suspects Swamped will get lynched, and Sorian wants to be on the good side. So: at that point in time, I simply dont think Swamped looked ready to take off. Swamped had a vote from me, and I was busy being the Ivan Lendl of the thread, and vote from CCS, who not many listen too very seriously. It seems implausible to me that Swamped was necessarily going to take off. Could Sorian be protecting? Possible. If so, I think Sorian might have swung against me. On the other side, I looked like the most likely candidate, so Sorian could have been doing the dual role of trying to steer away from Swamped while also building credibility by backing me for when I flipped town.
Blargonaut switches from Faddy to squidyj. This is interesting because this is where squidyj really kicks off, and marks the very start of the proper wagon against him. Again, though: not at all obvious at this point who is going where. Blarg could have voted squidy to be outside of the main points of contention, or to protect Faddy, who was tied as a vote-leader. I dont think there was a need to protect Faddy. All of the players who had seriously mentioned Faddy by this point were already on Faddys wagon. To be outside of the main contention? Blarg has never been worried by that. I dont see scum Blarg here.
Splinter foses Faddy in 1294. I find this moderately suspect. If he had put a vote down, Faddy would have gone back up to 3 votes, been a tied vote-leader, and had clear momentum. But instead, Splinter remains detached, and his current vote on squidyj. This could be a lukewarm avoidance again. But Splinter has been on squidyj a very long time, could just be unwillingness to leave a tunnelled vote. Benefit of the doubt here.
Faddy votes squidyj in 1296 in response to being called out by Splinter. Faddy has shown no real interest in squidyj prior to this point. Faddy offers no explanation for voting squiddyj. This definitely seems scummy to me. Its the first vote to put squidyj into the lead, ahead of myself and Bronx. Obviously fmpov he cant be protecting me. So why squidyj, rather than bronx-man, who Faddy fosd in 455? This is very unclear to me. The only reason I can see is that last time he tried bronx-man, he got called out by franconp and got very flustered. I dont think this is a protection of Bronx by going squiddyj so much as a very safe vote from someone who needed to find a safe place to put a vote.
Blarg shifts from squidyj to Swamped. Clearly not protecting squidyj, as we know. Could just be thinking Swamped wont really get lynched after all, but that pulls Swamped onto 3 and causes a fourway tie for top tied candidate with Swamped obviously having the momentum. Pretty dangerous if Swamped actually was scum. Again, Blargs dynamics here dont match scum to me.
Natiko votes squidyj. Interesting, because here we have a confirmed example of town/town interaction leading to town lynch a reminder that pushing for the lynch of someone who flips town doesnt make you scum in and of itself. However, to test my theory, suppose we didnt know Natikos alignment because someone else had died. Natikos vote is on acohrs. Acohrs is clearly not taking off. Natiko switching to squidy isnt hiding away, squidy is now the favourite for lynch. Natiko could be protecting amongst Swamped / bronx / squidyj. We know not squidyj. I think if Natiko not died, I would have been moderately suspicious. This is important and I want to come back to it later.
Stanley votes acohrs. Acohrs is clearly not taking off, especially as Natiko just left acohrs with a solitary vote. This is actually Stanleys first vote all day right before the deadline. Pretty unusual. If I were scum, I wouldnt be dodging off to acohrs like that. You dont win town cred for defending a player clearly not in any danger, and you arent protecting anyone as youre not changing the lead at all. Strikes me as maybe the action of a slightly more inexperienced player. Probably not scum.
Blargonaut switches votes again. Inclined to think just Blarg.
Natiko notes in 1309 that Swamped and I shouldnt be so certain. This is true. Little secret: Im never actually that certain, but fuck public displays of uncertainty, because they create fog for mafia to hide. Nevertheless, I think this is significant. Suppose again Natiko hadnt died. This comes across as a protection of Swamped fmpov, like his earlier vote to move squidyj ahead. If Natiko had lived, and I was going back, Id be thinking hey, Swamped is probably scum. But Natiko got killed. So
maybe Swamped is not scum, and I should step back a little. Natikos main contribution at this point is to defend both me and Swamped. Thats his contribution to end day. By taking out Natiko, scum are saying to at least some extent theyre worried by Natikos contributions and this I think is his most significant.
Kalor protects me in 1317. Again, fmpov I am not scum. So Kalor isnt protecting scum. He votes Swamped, bringing Swamped back into focus somewhat, rather than squidy. Squiddy flipped town, so Kalor isnt protecting scum there. Kalor could think Im likely to be lynched and want to build some town cred. Semi-plausible, but Im a tough fucker and not as easy to lynch as first appearances. Its not necessarily a safe bet. Alternatively, Swamped is scum, and Kalor thinks Swamped wont get lynched today and can build some credit later if Swamped flips as scum and Kalor can wave that vote around. If so, again, thats a risky game. Swamped could take off here. Kalors a good player, Im not ruling it out entirely, but theres risk to either assuming Ill get lynched and assuming Swamped doesnt, and not a risk that most players would take on early lightly.
Kawl votes squidyj. This is a critical vote because this is the vote that really begins to push squidyj ahead of me. Again, squidy is town, fmpov I am town, and the only real other contender is Swamped. Is Kawl protecting Swamped? Plausible, I think, coming directly after Kalors vote. I have this bookmarked as something to watch. In 1322, as well, Kawl fos Bronx, but
doesnt vote for Bronx? Why? Bronx was definitely still a possible wagon at this point, sitting level with Swamped a vote behind me and two votes behind squidyj. It is possible to worry about ties, but 20 minutes from deadline is a long time. Why fos someone you then dont pursue? I dont like this at all, and I definitely am watching Kawl more closely now, especially how Kawl acts towards other strong players like Sorian.
Verelios votes Kalor. So, squidyj is clearly taking off. At this point, scum can start relaxing in terms of trying to protect other scum as town have the lead, and instead they want to look for ways to not be on the town wagon. Picking a randomer for a plausible but not super-strongly argued reason is like scum end-day 101. Splinter calls Verelios out on this, which is right and didnt strike me as a w/w observation because normally it would sort of force Verelios to respond and could land Verelios in hot water more than w/w attacks are normally willing to do.
Swamped has a complete and total non-defense at 1330. Im really struggling with my read of Swamped, because my night-kill and vote analysis doesnt seem to point to Swamped scum, but Swampeds play smells scummy she can be a lot better than this, her game has been very weak.
Stanley goes squidyj. This is basically squidyj cemented, 3 votes clear now. Again, not a great time for scum to get on squidyj. Still think this is less experienced player caught up in things.
Sorian in 1337 wants to go after Bronx or Faddy. Bit late for that. Town cred attempt? Unsure. I feel like town Sorian would have pushed much harder for Swamped to be lynched given a true preference of Swamped > Squidy > Crab pushed in 1337. My read on Sorian remains consistent from earlier; probably town but not engaging with the game perhaps as much as normal. Definitely cracks of doubt, though. Sorian then switches to me in 1346. Why? His last preference listed squidy ahead of me. Something changed Sorians mind, but no explanation? He wants to force a tie to see who breaks what way. Okay, I guess. Then goes back to squidyj at the end to avoid ending on a tie. Town normally dont want to force a tie. Usually, you have preference one way or the other. Its rare that the information you could get from someone ending the tie one way or the other is more useful than having a town player lynched rather than a scum player. But again, if Sorian is taking this only 50% seriously, it isnt a play he would rule out.
Who was absent/less present than they should have been?
Burbeting, Lone_Prodigy, franconp, nin1000, TheWorthyEdge, Kyanrute, WhereAreMahDragonz, acohrs, OceanicAir, gryvan. Bronx-Man was not absent so much as tunnelled incredibly heavily and was very active but didnt change vote through-out this whole turmoil.
Oceanic and gryvan are being replaced, so well forgive them that quietness. Why was everyone else quiet at such a critical point? Or content to stick with prior chances despite so much useful information flying around? Im not sure.
So, where am I at? Im somewhat more doubtful of Swamped. Very much sitting on the fence now. Im reasonably confident Blarg is town. I am null on Splinter with maybe a very slight break to town. I am strongly leaning towards Faddy as scum. I am more confident Kalor is town. I have no strong opinion on Kawl. I am growing more confident Verelios is scum. I still think Bronx is probably scum. Sorian
fence-sitting still. If he is town, I want him to really step up his game. If his play continues as it is at the moment, I feel I will be pushed towards a scumread.