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[IntentionalPun]

Could be totally wrong.. could be ballpark.. could be accurate.

Partners like Take Two definitely would be given a rough idea as making deals to be put on Gamepass are partly about the amount of people who might buy MTX and all that, but doesn't mean someone at the level of Strauss just remembers the correct number off of the top of their head.

They did have record subscriber growth in Q4 though, enough to skyrocket their revenue YOY even w/ COVID bump from last year being arguably higher (as other companies leveled off or lost customers.)

 

[Kagey K]

That revenue is shared with all the developers and publishers who have games on the service. So that revenue doesn't mean much as far as profitability. Obviously MS expects it to be profitable at some point, but Greenberg has said it is not, at this point at least.

He never says it's not profitable. He says at this point in time it's not a big profit play.

He is also saying this in July of 2020 at 10 million subscribers.

This shit has been argued to death.

We always laugh when we hear that. Please don't worry about us. Microsoft is going to be alright. We're gonna make it, I think we're gonna be okay.

With Xbox Game Pass, Microsoft is focusing on over-delivering on value, even if it comes at the cost of profits in the short term. It's a different mindset. If you do optimize for profit, you can either say 'How we do get as much profit out of each customer?' or, do you pivot that and say, 'How do we add as much value to our fans?' 'How can we actually over-deliver on value?' If you do that, you build fans for life.

When people feel like you're over-delivering on value, they want to not only continue to use your service but they want to tell their friends about it. The most powerful marketing is word-of-mouth marketing. We can't create as many advertisements, as many assets as we want, but if both of you go tell one of your closest friends, 'You have to get Game Pass!' that's way more effective than any marketing I can do. For us, we just want to keep adding more and more value to Xbox Game Pass so you feel really good about that and you feel like you want to go tell your friends about it. And ultimately, we think long-term that's the right thing for the business and will have long-term benefits for us. In the short-term, yeah, Xbox Game Pass is not a big profit play. But we think long-term it works out good for everybody.

 

[MrS]

I love these conspiracy theories.

I love your shit posts.

 

[Sosokrates]

Nobody with sense is paying $10 per month. I've had my X for 1 month and have already accrued enough reward points for a free month of gamepass. At this rate I'll never have to pay any real dollars for GP. Gotta imagine there are millions doing the same thing, in addition to the 3 years for £120 gold conversion "trick" (which works out at around 3 dollars per month over 3 years).

Theres no way to know without Microsoft internal data, but i think the majority of people will be paying full price for either gp or gpu.
I myself did the gold coversion trick for a year, but now that year has ended the conversion trick dont work anymore and as for Microsoft reward points i do have some, i get from browsing bing and using game pass app, but I've never been to fussed to suss it out.
I think people will just pay the $10 or $15 each month and forget about it like they do with there other subs.

But i get that u and others think the opposite.

 

[Kataploom]

Cool, I like the service a lot but can't stand the windows app errors, I basically have a workaround for downloading games and forgetting about having to download anything else in the months just to avoid dealing with it, it's really exhausting, not paying it every months because of that.

I hope those get sorted asap.

Also, I'd like japanese games to come with jap voices option if there's english voices in the game, so I don't have to avoid them (glad FF13 did and I'm enjoying it a lot!)

 

[Kataploom]

Reminder: You can still use the Xbox Live trick to gain Gamepass a lot cheaper. I just did it yesterday, it still works.

Does it work if I'm already on an ongoing sub? Or just for new users?

 

[SlimySnake]

You're assuming that the 30 million figure is true. Why?

I am literally discussing the topic of the thread.

 

[Sosokrates]

That revenue is shared with all the developers and publishers who have games on the service. So that revenue doesn't mean much as far as profitability. Obviously MS expects it to be profitable at some point, but Greenberg has said it is not, at this point at least.

Yeah and those 11 games aint all profit either, thought this was obvious. Gamepass wont be in the green for a while, im mean just recouping the Zenimax investment is going to take years.

However they see profit for there aquisitions sooner because gamepass is not the only revenue stream, game sals, dlc, pc sales will def help out, i would be surprised if the xbox division is in the green by q1 2025.

 

[TBiddy]

Theres no way to know with Microsoft internal data, but i think the majority of people will be paying full price for either gp or gpu.
I myself did the gold coversion trick for a year, but now that year has ended the conversion trick dont work anymore and as for Microsoft reward points i do have some, i get from browsing bing and using game pass app, but I've never been to fussed to suss it out.
I think people wil just pay the $10 or $15 each month and forget about it like they do with there other subs.

But i get that u and others think the opposite.

Add to that, that Microsoft Rewards isn't available outside USA.

I pay full price each month and find it great value.

 

[MacReady13]

30 million per month is pretty insane. thats $180 million in guaranteed revenue every month. They can easily buy big name exclusives with that money every month. Something like BF would sell 10 million in its first month, but that would split across 3 platforms. If MS can promise $180 million in guaranteed revenue along with any other revenue they would make from selling retail and digital copies then I can easily see MS getting AAA games like BF, AC and Far Cry on Gamepass on day one.

The only problem might be those $1 subs and those folks who converted their XBL Gold subs to Gamepass subs but seeing as how they have gone from 12 million monthly subs to 30 million in 18 months, it's fair to see that the people who sub for $1 or convert their subs have stuck around.

If by the end of the gen, they have 50 million monthly subs, I can easily see them just hand out a $300 million check to Rockstar and get GTA6 on gamepass on Day 1.

Spot on. I love this!

 

[Bragr]

Does it work if I'm already on an ongoing sub? Or just for new users?

Are you on a subscription for Game Pass or only Xbox Live? it doesn't matter if you are new or not, if you are currently subscribed to Game Pass, you need to let it expire completely, then re-subscribe as an Xbox Live member. If you currently are only subscribed to Xbox Live, you can subscribe to one month of Game Pass and it all will be converted into Game Pass ultimate.

 

[The Alien]

That was the target.
Public company so I'm sure the news made it out there....but probably get that announcement at XO21.

 

[MonarchJT]

This IS the next "take 2 acquisition rumor. Youre going to see the jez cordins and cult eastwoods crawl from the floorboards with things like: 'I had been hearing close to thirty but couldnt believe it takes." The entire twitter sphere of xbox infleuncers will come out and say its gospel. Jeff grubb will wear a shirt that says "30" on it. And in the next quarterly report from MS we'll find out subs are close to 22 million, if that, and then we'll be on the next insane, untrue rumor after that.

Zelknick was probably mocking phil, or goading him to say real numbers.

the anger that arises from the success of gamepass in some people is heartbreaking and at the same time fun to watch. Keep fighting man keep fighting!)

 

[Nikana]

I love your shit posts.

Oh the irony.

If you are gonna make claims like millions aren't paying for GP, bring some data of any kind to prove your claim.

By your logic, I bet millions aren't paying for Netflix and using free trials and CC rewards.

Edit: Spelling.

 

[mckmas8808]

Could be totally wrong.. could be ballpark.. could be accurate.

Partners like Take Two definitely would be given a rough idea as making deals to be put on Gamepass are partly about the amount of people who might buy MTX and all that, but doesn't mean someone at the level of Strauss just remembers the correct number off of the top of their head.

They did have record subscriber growth in Q4 though, enough to skyrocket their revenue YOY even w/ COVID bump from last year being arguably higher (as other companies leveled off or lost customers.)

But why would MS want to "HIDE" this amazing growth from the world (including investors)?

 

[Nikana]

But why would MS want to "HIDE" this amazing growth from the world (including investors)?

How are they hiding data?

 

[Bragr]

30 million per month is pretty insane. thats $180 million in guaranteed revenue every month. They can easily buy big name exclusives with that money every month. Something like BF would sell 10 million in its first month, but that would split across 3 platforms. If MS can promise $180 million in guaranteed revenue along with any other revenue they would make from selling retail and digital copies then I can easily see MS getting AAA games like BF, AC and Far Cry on Gamepass on day one.

The only problem might be those $1 subs and those folks who converted their XBL Gold subs to Gamepass subs but seeing as how they have gone from 12 million monthly subs to 30 million in 18 months, it's fair to see that the people who sub for $1 or convert their subs have stuck around.

If by the end of the gen, they have 50 million monthly subs, I can easily see them just hand out a $300 million check to Rockstar and get GTA6 on gamepass on Day 1.

Well, they spend a massive amount of money funding all their studios, they pay for the entire dev cycle of tons of major studios. Combine that with all the marketing, they must be spending hundreds of millions a year on this. GTA VI is gonna earn billions in a few days, they would actually lose money if Microsoft gave them 300 up-front, especially if it's on Game Pass for consoles and PC both.

 

[mckmas8808]

Maybe this is what triggered Colin to go on that rant the other day

Does anybody actually WANT Microsoft to buy Take Two?

 

[IntentionalPun]

But why would MS want to "HIDE" this amazing growth from the world (including investors)?

Well I personally have trouble believing the number, but not because they haven't announced anything.

The business doesn't really depend on Xbox news to make their stock price move. If Xbox is going to move the needle it has to be big news; I'd think 30 million would be big, but they might not be there yet or they want to time w/ a quarterly financial report.

I could be way wrong but I always assumed they really wanted to wait until 20 million to announce their last big jump.

 

[mckmas8808]

How are they hiding data?

By not revealing it in their quarterly reports. It's just stupid to NOT announce this kind of growth "IF" true. Like lets be real here.

 

[MacReady13]

the anger that arises from the success of gamepass in some people is heartbreaking and at the same time fun to watch. Keep fighting man keep fighting!)

And the glee at people wanking over a shitty sub service is an absolute joy to see, especially when this is just a way for microsoft to not state how many consoles they've sold but to now state how many subs they have! Enjoy your sub services and I'll sit back and watch as every other company goes down the same path where you will need to subscribe each and every month to all the different sub services to play all the games you want! It's coming and it will be glorious to see!

 

[Magic Carpet]

But why would MS want to "HIDE" this amazing growth from the world (including investors)?

Probly the whole growth thing. Got to show that things are growing year over year not all at once. If they get everyone in one year what do you do next year to keep growing? If I saw my stock made all my money in 2021 then I'm selling in 2022.

 

[Topher]

Take2 is one of the biggest publishers Strauss knows the numbers wait until Halo and Forza launch 30mill ain't nothing

Apparently he doesn't if he is asking Phil Spencer what the publicly announced number is.

Yeah and those 11 games aint all profit either, thought this was obvious.

Except I'm not talking about some 11 random games. I certainly don't know which games are profitable and which are not. Neither do you. So making assumptions about what model is more profitable than another doesn't make much sense, does it?

He never says it's nt profitable. He says at this point in time it's not a big profit play.

He is also saying this in July of 2020 at 10 million subscribers.

This shit has been argued to death.

Ah....that's right. Not a "big profit play". The point being we don't know what profit, if any, there is in Game Pass so why make baseless assumptions about whether one model is more profitable than another?

 

[Nikana]

By not revealing it in their quarterly reports. It's just stupid to NOT announce this kind of growth "IF" true. Like lets be real here.

I am not disagreeing but I would not call that hiding data. If anything, GP is one of the only areas Microsoft gives real numbers. They focus on it when it is relevant/reaches milestones.

 

[mckmas8808]

Probly the whole growth thing. Got to show that things are growing year over year not all at once. If they get everyone in one year what do you do next year to keep growing? If I saw my stock made all my money in 2021 then I'm selling in 2022.

That's what small time investors do. But investors that go long, don't think like that. They bank that the growth will continue for another 3-5 years MINIMUM!

 

[Magic Carpet]

That's what small time investors do.

Yep. I lose often with my little bets.

 

[MonarchJT]

And the glee at people wanking over a shitty sub service is an absolute joy to see, especially when this is just a way for microsoft to not state how many consoles they've sold but to now state how many subs they have! Enjoy your sub services and I'll sit back and watch as every other company goes down the same path where you will need to subscribe each and every month to all the different sub services to play all the games you want! It's coming and it will be glorious to see!

"shitty sub service"? wut?? are drunk?

another angry user who probably never touched an Xbox or gp or just an alt account of your banned first ?
go to sleep man..ignored

 

[mckmas8808]

I am not disagreeing but I would not call that hiding data. If anything, GP is one of the only areas Microsoft gives real numbers. They focus on it when it is relevant/reaches milestones.

Exactly! And if I had 18 million subs in 2020 and now have 30 million subs at the end of summer 2021, that's a HUGE milestone! Somebody gonna know about that! Ain't no way, MS just going to sit on that info.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

And the glee at people wanking over a shitty sub service is an absolute joy to see, especially when this is just a way for microsoft to not state how many consoles they've sold but to now state how many subs they have! Enjoy your sub services and I'll sit back and watch as every other company goes down the same path where you will need to subscribe each and every month to all the different sub services to play all the games you want! It's coming and it will be glorious to see!

I think both models can succeed with Sony pumping out massive big budget single player exclusives and this current road that Gamepass is traveling down

Oh and Gamepass is far from a shitty sub service and if you feel that way then why bother coming into this thread?

 

[MonarchJT]

honestly i don't think is 30 but i think is not very distant from there. it will be 30+ easily after halo and Forza

 

[IntentionalPun]

Exactly! And if I had 18 million subs in 2020 and now have 30 million subs at the end of summer 2021, that's a HUGE milestone! Somebody gonna know about that! Ain't no way, MS just going to sit on that info.

Well their next quarter ends in a few days and in the coming weeks we'll have their report.

(like I said I still doubt the number, but it's not odd to wait until an actual quarterly financial report)

 

[SenjutsuSage]

I repeat again, them not announcing it yet is no evidence that the 30 million number has not been reached. What if Microsoft never announced that they had hit 18 million back when they publicly announced it. Would any of us know? Microsoft hasn't even since announced that it has hit the 23 million mark that was reported. The point is Game Pass is growing and people are flocking to it.

 

[MacReady13]

"shitty sub service"? wut?? are drunk?

another angry user who probably never touched an Xbox or gp or just an alt account of your banned first ?
go to sleep man..ignored

I have over 50k gamer score so I have played Xbox before. I just don't want to have subs take over gaming. I'm seeing it in tv land and it's not fun. And put me on ignore cause you don't like me making fun of game pass? Good. Ignore then. Pussy.

 

[MacReady13]

I think both models can succeed with Sony pumping out massive big budget single player exclusives and this current road that Gamepass is traveling down

Oh and Gamepass is far from a shitty sub service and if you feel that way then why bother coming into this thread?

I think all sub services are shit.

 

[Nikana]

Exactly! And if I had 18 million subs in 2020 and now have 30 million subs at the end of summer 2021, that's a HUGE milestone! Somebody gonna know about that! Ain't no way, MS just going to sit on that info.

Again, not disagreeing, but that's not hiding info.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

If thats an average of $10/month per sub, thats $3.6 billion per year. To put things into perspective you would need to sell 11 games each selling 8 million each and each making $40.

Ita seems more profitable then the standard model, neither company has had 11 games each selling 8 million.

Services are and will always be more profitable than sales of individual content BUT it takes long to turn a profit...but all the biggest companies in the world are selling services, to consumers or other businesses. MS will probably make 100x as much selling azure than 100 million xboxes.

 

[SlimySnake]

Well, they spend a massive amount of money funding all their studios, they pay for the entire dev cycle of tons of major studios. Combine that with all the marketing, they must be spending hundreds of millions a year on this. GTA VI is gonna earn billions in a few days, they would actually lose money if Microsoft gave them 300 up-front, especially if it's on Game Pass for consoles and PC both.

Their internal studios are managed by a different budget. Gamepass operates on its own revenue. It's a separate service that does feature first party games but MS makes so few first party games nowadays, it's really not fair to put them under the same umbrella.

When they do come out like Horizon and Halo in October and November, Gamepass does not need to send those $180 million they have earned that month to any third party publisher. And while the oft delayed Halo might be a $200 million game, Forza Horizon isnt even close to $50 million.

GTA5 was a different time. it's when Xbox was the lead platform for many gamers and the sales were 50-50 if not higher on the 360. We can look at RDR2 which sold $725 million in three days and it was on Gamepass within a year when they had just a few million subscribers. 50 million subs per month is A LOT of money. It's how Disney+ and Netflix are able to give everyone and their mothers $200-400 million deals. When your yearly revenue is consistent and no longer relies on your big first party studios to deliver every few months, you can afford to hand out big wads of cash to third parties.

 

[chonga]

30 million per month is pretty insane. thats $180 million in guaranteed revenue every month. They can easily buy big name exclusives with that money every month. Something like BF would sell 10 million in its first month, but that would split across 3 platforms. If MS can promise $180 million in guaranteed revenue along with any other revenue they would make from selling retail and digital copies then I can easily see MS getting AAA games like BF, AC and Far Cry on Gamepass on day one.

The only problem might be those $1 subs and those folks who converted their XBL Gold subs to Gamepass subs but seeing as how they have gone from 12 million monthly subs to 30 million in 18 months, it's fair to see that the people who sub for $1 or convert their subs have stuck around.

If by the end of the gen, they have 50 million monthly subs, I can easily see them just hand out a $300 million check to Rockstar and get GTA6 on gamepass on Day 1.

Do you realise you are advocating for a single game to go on GP per month and that the game would only be available for one month?

All your calculations are saying is MS could be in a position where they can say to a publisher 'forgo your usual sales because we can guarantee you your expected revenue if you slap it on Game Pass'.

But games continue to sell after the first month. So unless you remove it from the service after one month, you need to pay way more than usual month 1 sales that it'd replace.

Further they're not just adding one game on the service per month. So you can't just do simplistic calculations like subs * fee = revenue and then allocate it all to one game.

 

[MacReady13]

Services are and will always be more profitable than sales of individual content BUT it takes long to turn a profit...but all the biggest companies in the world are selling services, to consumers or other businesses. MS will probably make 100x as much selling azure than 100 million xboxes.

So why not stop with the charade and give up the Xbox brand? It's dead now, and they seem to brand everything with Game Pass. If they are so keen on making subs their future just give up the Xbox brand, push for Game Pass on Playstation and Switch alongside all TV models and go that path. Clearly this is where they think (and certainly many on here) see gaming heading so lets cut the shit and do it now.

 

[IntentionalPun]

If thats an average of $10/month per sub, thats $3.6 billion per year. To put things into perspective you would need to sell 11 games each selling 8 million each and each making $40.

Ita seems more profitable then the standard model, neither company has had 11 games each selling 8 million.

Not really the right analogy because most of Gamepass are not Microsoft's games, as they are buying content.

Eventually they'll shift to having more of the service be their own games, but they still have to be buying a lot of content as well and we don't really know what those deals entail.

Not saying it isn't an attractive model, but I think it has to scale well above 30 million customers for it to truly make sense.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

But why would MS want to "HIDE" this amazing growth from the world (including investors)?

They don't just go out and brag on the sales. Usually when gamepass numbers are announced its on earnings call...they probably holding it to then. To just post the numbers on twitter is off putting for a trillion dollar company.

 

[twilo99]

We will never know what the balance sheet on this whole project looks like. Just give up on that.

What we do know is that its a massive investment and Microsoft are finally spending some real money. My only question is there a time frame/expiration date for this push or is this just going to be their normal position towards gaming.



Its amazing to think that xbox has never been taken seriously and it somehow survived? Its upgraded to "central" now, let's just enjoy whatever that means.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

So why not stop with the charade and give up the Xbox brand? It's dead now, and they seem to brand everything with Game Pass. If they are so keen on making subs their future just give up the Xbox brand, push for Game Pass on Playstation and Switch alongside all TV models and go that path. Clearly this is where they think (and certainly many on here) see gaming heading so lets cut the shit and do it now.

Xbox is a platform now, i'm sure they would love to get that platform on everywhere like Windows which is what they are moving towards. But the brand isnt dead, it just evolved beyond the box. But if it does turn into a successful service a minor venture in cooperation speaks can turn into a huge money maker. Its a win win for them essentially.

 

[Markio128]

Gamepass threads always make me chuckle. This thread in gif form:

 

[Banjo64]

Not really the right analogy because most of Gamepass are not Microsoft's games, as they are buying content.

Eventually they'll shift to having more of the service be their own games, but they still have to be buying a lot of content as well and we don't really know what those deals entail.

Not saying it isn't an attractive model, but I think it has to scale well above 30 million customers for it to truly make sense.

I do wonder what percentage is currently MS games (including Zenimax). They must have a good 40-50 on there at least?

I agree that the long term plan will probably see Microsoft's first party prop the service up with indie and select AA games being paid to show up day one to support the first party. I think that point is still 2-3 years away though, and in the meantime we'll still see stuff like Outriders and MLB showing up day one.

 

[reksveks]

We will never know what the balance sheet on this whole project looks like. Just give up on that.

What we do know is that its a massive investment and Microsoft are finally spending some real money. My only question is there a time frame/expiration date for this push or is this just going their normal position towards gaming.



Its amazing to think that xbox has never been taken seriously and it somehow survived? Its upgraded to "central" now, let's just enjoy whatever that means.

Xbox is central to their metaverse and creator economy play so I think it's a long term play. They want to have a number of minecrafts.

 

[SlimySnake]

Do you realise you are advocating for a single game to go on GP per month and that the game would only be available for one month?

All your calculations are saying is MS could be in a position where they can say to a publisher 'forgo your usual sales because we can guarantee you your expected revenue if you slap it on Game Pass'.

But games continue to sell after the first month. So unless you remove it from the service after one month, you need to pay way more than usual month 1 sales that it'd replace.

Further they're not just adding one game on the service per month. So you can't just do simplistic calculations like subs * fee = revenue and then allocate it all to one game.

There is nothing stopping them for making a month long deal. And plenty of publishers have already released day one on gamepass. They had no issues forgoing their 'usual sales'.

A game like Outriders was never going to make $180 million life time. BF, yes. Cod yes. But there are plenty of AAA games that struggle to sell 3 million copies on xbox consoles. Taking the $180 million up front and hoping to make the rest on other consoles while continuing to sell retail copies on Xbox is a smart business decision for most companies.

Ubisoft and EA both have subscription services on PC where they give out their latest and greatest $100 million AC, Far Cry, Star Wars and Battlefield games for $15.

 

[IntentionalPun]

I do wonder what percentage is currently MS games (including Zenimax). They must have a good 40-50 on there at least?

I agree that the long term plan will probably see Microsoft's first party prop the service up with indie and select AA games being paid to show up day one to support the first party. I think that point is still 2-3 years away though, and in the meantime we'll still see stuff like Outriders and MLB showing up day one.

Yeah you optimize the content pipeline over time in general.... some games over time end up costing you less, those AAA games that show up right near a big DLC release for instance aren't going to cost the same amount of money when they have 50 million customers as it did when they had 10 million as going on the service will be more attractive. Having your own games on the service is theoretically the best way to optimize though.

The model is really based on the fact that content costs don't go up 'per user' they go down or eventually stagnate, and then from there on out adding users is just a game of pure profit. MS controls those costs too, they could at any time just have a lull in spending and see where numbers go.

 

[Topher]

They don't just go out and brag on the sales. Usually when gamepass numbers are announced its on earnings call...they probably holding it to then. To just post the numbers on twitter is off putting for a trillion dollar company.

Very possibly. Last announcements as January of this year with the 18 million number. But we have had two earnings calls since then with no new numbers. Seems strange if the subscriber count has grown to 20 since January that no new milestones have been revealed for Q3 or Q4. But yeah, could be the next one they will update the number.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well their next quarter ends in a few days and in the coming weeks we'll have their report.

(like I said I still doubt the number, but it's not odd to wait until an actual quarterly financial report)