Support NeoGAF

[LordRaptor]

So I think it's mostly semantic.

Yes, you're correct; to clarify, for the purposes of this discussion I am talking about dedicated games playing devices.
You're right of course that there are more people buying and playing games than ever.
That growth is not happening in the traditional dedicated games device markets though.

You mean how you are assuming that "the industry" is only Nintendo, like they are in charge and determine everything?

i am assuming nothing of the sort, "PS Fan".

 

[shadow2810]

Seems possible with combination of lower price point + Pokemon + Animal crossing + new 2D Mario + Mario Kart 9

 

[EBreda]

Kill the 3ds and position the Switch check as its replacement and 40 million seem pretty reachable, specially with a price drop for holiday 2018.

Drop a couple of great Pokemons, Monster Hunters, Animal Crossing, Zelda and Marios and there you go.

I wonder if Nintendo will be happy with only one hardware though, Or if it will replace the 3ds with a different system down the road. It this happens, then Switch will never reach 40 million.

 

[Duxxy3]

Because they (correctly) knew that price wasn't the achilles heel of the Wii U the way it was with the 3DS. Dropping price would have meant a temporary boost in sales for a couple months, and then Nintendo losing money on units.

If the Switch launches, and sells poorly despite a constant stream of quality software, then it's safe to say they need to drop the price. I was never, and will never be, convinced that a price drop for the Wii U would have changed anything significantly.

I wouldn't call their 2017 lineup a constant stream of anything. Lack of software is the reason why I'm so uninterested in the system.

Do you think that Nintendo will be able to fix that though? Because the Wii U never got any more appealing to me, even to this day. There were games here and there, but not remotely a steady stream.
Part of why the 3DS has such a large library of games is because it's so cheap and easy to develop for. Expectations on that system (graphically and otherwise) are very low. That wasn't the case with the Wii U, and I don't think that will be the case with the Switch either.

I'm a big believer that portable gaming should be cheap fun. Always have been. It's why I'm not a believer in the Switch as a 3DS replacement.

 

[bigbaldwolf86]

Read the article but it didn't mention what they were smoking when they pulled this number from the sky.

I'd love to be suprised but I just don't see it based on Nintendo's history.

 

[bzzt]

This seems very reasonable. Maybe it sells a little less, but not by much because I still believe the handheld market is there. It's not as huge as it use to be, but it should still be there. However, if all games are in the $50-60 range, it may fail to attract a lot of that handheld market and do a bit worse.

 

[Lexxism]

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

Lol. That should be said on your post

 

[Straight Edge]

The switch seems like it was built to be reduced in price. It will be a hard sell until it drops to $200. It will be lucky to hit 20m at $299.

 

[hemo memo]

Wheres Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Yokai Watch, Fire Emblem? Does the Wii U have the portability of the Switch?

My point is clear. First party support alone is not enough. Many other factors that Nintendo screwed up with the Switch like the price is a big one to get mass market appeal.

 

[Dark Cloud]

My point is clear. First party support alone is not enough. Many other factors that Nintendo screwed up with the Switch like the price is a big one to get mass market appeal.

Your point wasn't clear enough. Actually your point was muddy because you only accounted for some franchises on Wii U. The Switch is getting handheld franchises, like a Pokemon, that pushes more systems.

 

[morikaze]

My prediction is that 40m will be far surpassed.

 

[mario_O]

I think its going to struggle in its first year and it looks like Nintendo agree's, thats why everything is so expensive, they need to maximize the profits they get from the hardcore Nintendo fans who will buy the Switch no matter what.

In 2018 they could release different Sku's to lower the price. A slim model, a console only model, a portable only model. If things go well they could have a $150 slim portable model with Pokemon, thats where the Switch starts making sense for consumers.

A $150 Switch next year? Not gonna happen. And a portable-only Switch would not lower the price at all; the difference is a piece of plastic -that's what the dock is. The handheld market just got incredible expensive for kids (parents), and there's not much they can do about it. Maybe $250 with a game is the best we'll see next year.

 

[RibMan]

I think that number is reasonable 👍

Personally, I think they'll end up a little higher than the 'cube, so somewhere between 20 and 40 million. I think the inevitable revision will be the difference between the console selling less than 40 million and the console selling a little over that. I see the Switch sharing or taking 2nd place by a slight margin, so my prediction at the top of the gen (PS4 = PS1, XB1 = N64, Wii U = Saturn) will hold true, and it will see the Switch enter into the N64 space.

 

[butman]

For reach this numbers the Switch needs in 3 years:

- CoD
- Uncharted
- The Last of Us
- Metroid
- Overwatch

 

[Rolf NB]

30

 

[ArtHands]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

This place isnt always the best gauge for sales. GAF were negative with Wii which ended up becoming a major seller and very positive with the Vita which ended up a major flop.

 

[kswiston]

Do we have a number of copies sold for Pokemon Sun/Moon? And have an attached ratio to 3ds sold?

Pokemon or Monster hunter sure does help, but..

Major mainline and remakes for pokemon were all between 12.7M and 17.6M worldwide on the DS and 3DS.

Sun and Moon will probably finish in that same range, near the higher end of the scale.

 

[randomengine]

My prediction is that 40m will be far surpassed.

You are right.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Yes, you're correct; to clarify, for the purposes of this discussion I am talking about dedicated games playing devices.
You're right of course that there are more people buying and playing games than ever.
That growth is not happening in the traditional dedicated games device markets though..

Yeah, there's definitely not growth there compared to last gen with the Wii, PS3, 360, DS and PSP all doing well.

That said, when this generation is said and done and you look at PS4, X1 and Switch sales, it will still be a pretty large number of gamers. Especially if we had a way to see how many were single console owners--as that would make the decline look lesser vs. assuming a lot of people own two or three like in the past.

At that point, the people saying that the contraction is mostly just a lot of Wii/DS gamers who went mobile or quit maybe right.

I mean the PS3 and 360 each selling 80ish million obviously doens't mean that was 160 million unique console gamers as a lot of people had both--we just don't know how many.

The PS4 and X1 combined aren't going to hit 160 million. But they may hit 100-120 million depending how long the gen goes. And that may well be about how many core gamers were playing on PS3 or 360 last gen if you subtract the two console owners from the 160 million total sales. We just don't have that data unfortunately so we'll never know.

 

[hemo memo]

Your point wasn't clear enough. Actually your point was muddy because you only accounted for some franchises on Wii U. The Switch is getting handheld franchises, like a Pokemon, that pushes more systems.

Pushes how many systems at that price?

 

[Duxxy3]

A $150 Switch next year? Not gonna happen. And a portable-only Switch would not lower the price at all; the difference is a piece of plastic -that's what the dock is. The handheld market just got incredible expensive for kids (parents), and there's not much they can do about it. Maybe $250 with a game is the best we'll see next year.

Here's your tablet kids. Sorry, we don't have the money for a $300 handheld, $60 games and $80 controllers.

 

[azyless]

Maybe 5 million.

5 millions ? I predict they sell 53 units.

 

[Hattori]

For reach this numbers the Switch needs in 3 years:

- CoD
- Uncharted
- The Last of Us
- Metroid
- Overwatch

the 3DS didn't have any of this

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

A $150 Switch next year? Not gonna happen. And a portable-only Switch would not lower the price at all; the difference is a piece of plastic -that's what the dock is. The handheld market just got incredible expensive for kids (parents), and there's not much they can do about it. Maybe $250 with a game is the best we'll see next year.

When i say portable only i mean a "Slim" model, with a smaller screen. A model that would fit in your pocket.

For reach this numbers the Switch needs in 3 years:

- CoD
- Uncharted
- The Last of Us
- Metroid
- Overwatch

Its going to have exclusive Pokemon, Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Animal Crossing, maybe Monster Hunter and Yokai Watch. It will be fine.

 

[phanphare]

me thinks this is going to be a funny thread to revisit down the line

 

[Deleted member 752119]

A $150 Switch next year? Not gonna happen. And a portable-only Switch would not lower the price at all; the difference is a piece of plastic -that's what the dock is. The handheld market just got incredible expensive for kids (parents), and there's not much they can do about it. Maybe $250 with a game is the best we'll see next year.

If they did a portable only they could drop other things. Build in integrated controls rather than joycons. Just make it work with joycons sold separately in table top mode for those interested.

Point being, I don't see a portable only or console only sku unless the Switch sku is failing. At that point they can drop features and relaunch separate devices.

I never see them just selling the current hardware as just the tablet and joycons. As you note, absurd retail mark up aside, the dock and HDMI cable doesn't cost them that much. They'll just drop price first, and if that doesn't work go back and redesign a separate portable and/or console if they don't just ride it out and try again with something new in a few years (or get out of hardware).

 

[HardRojo]

Wii U have Smash - Mario Kart - Super Mario 3DW - Splatoon.

I know, but Splatoon released late on the Wii U and couldn't help much, maybe it will help somewhat now. I actually believe Pokémon and MonHun will be the games to benefit the Switch the most from the list I wrote, the others I put just for reference.

 

[brawly]

Maybe if they slash the price quickly like they did with 3DS. Good luck to them if they go the Wii U pricing route.

 

[Raylan]

the 3DS didn't have any of this

3DS is a handheld.

 

[Hattori]

3DS is a handheld.

so is the Switch

 

[Inferno313]

When i say portable only i mean a "Slim" model, with a smaller screen. A model that would fit in your pocket.

Yup. Nintendo already alluded to this concept a long time ago. Back to the initial discussions of the "NX", Iwata talked about the way that Apple offers multiple devices, the iPad and iPhone, that utilize multiple form-factors, but share the same platform as being an example of how they want to take things going forward.

I could totally see a Vita-sized "Switch-Mini" in the future, for a cheaper price, that is positioned more directly as the successor to the 3DS, but utilizes the same library of games as the Switch. The 'iPhone' to Switch's 'iPad.'

 

[Ushojax]

It will have Pokemon so that guarantees a certain baseline already. 40m would be a reasonable success I guess.

 

[Straight Edge]

so is the Switch

One that is priced like a console.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

By 2020? Switch will be doing better than the 3DS then.

 

[Toxi]

The PSP alone sold 20 million more than the 3DS. The DS sold 2.5 times as much as the 3DS.

I don't see the Switch reaching 3DS numbers. It's more expensive (this really matters for a handheld) and a price slash of that level so soon probably won't happen when it's not a cheaply made piece of garbage like the OG 3DS.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Pushes how many systems at that price?

Keep in mind price will drop. They can sell it at full price more as a console to hardcore fans of Zelda, Splatoon, 3D Mario etc. Put the Pokemon port out as well.

By the time a full new mainline Pokemon game is ready it will be $250. Maybe even $200 if it take a couple of years.

I think that's their hope anyway. Time will tell if it works as the console crowd may not be interested just like they weren't for Wii U.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

I say that by 2020 the Switch will have sold no more than 25 million. Mark my post for death.

 

[Raylan]

so is the Switch

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.

3DS is a handheld.

Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

 

[Rolf NB]

And a portable-only Switch would not lower the price at all; the difference is a piece of plastic -that's what the dock is. The handheld market just got incredible expensive for kids (parents), and there's not much they can do about it. Maybe $250 with a game is the best we'll see next year.

For the 51st time:
* no more redundant shit in the Joy Cons
* actually no more Joy Cons, controls built into the device permanently
* smaller screen
* GPU cut down to top out at "undocked" performance profile

Those are the savings for a handheld-only Switch.
It's not about including the sub-5$ BOM dock or not. The handheld Switch implementation would be mechanically incompatible with the current dock to start with, and the only thing happening when you connect it to a USB-C of any sort would be the magic of battery charging taking place.

 

[Hattori]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

Sorry, I said handheld not pocketable device

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

You can carry it anywhere, if you want...unlike the Wii U tablet.

 

[Ocarina_117]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

I really don't understand what these kind of posts add to conversation. At this point it's trolling.

I guess my dell xps 15 and iPad aren't portable as neither fit in my back pocket.

 

[killroy87]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

Both of those look equally uncomfortable. That's like saying an iPad mini isn't portable.

Just carry a bag or backpack lol.

 

[bomb]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

are you serious?

 

[RareFantasy64]

I'm gonna be carrying around my Switch with me. It will be a handheld as much as a console. I'll make it work

 

[Dark Cloud]

According to Nintendo, it isn't.
And it is priced as a home console, too.


3DS is a handheld.


Switch doesn't look like one

But yeah, you can carry it around at home, if you want... like the WiiU tablet.

That's not the only way to carry a handheld around. You know the Switch can be carried around and played with...unlike the Wii U tablet.
QUOTE=hemo memo;228760183]Pushes how many systems at that price?[/QUOTE]

We don't know what the price will be when those games come out and we've never seen a mainline Pokemon game on a system that can be a home console too.

 

[Raylan]

Sorry, I said handheld not pocketable device

Sorry, but Nintendo said it's a home gaming system first and foremost.
So yeah, it's a home console imho and it's priced as one.

 

[LordRaptor]

I think portable is probably a better term than handheld to help try and avoid stupid comparisons about fitting in a pocket or not.

A laptop is a portable. An iPad is a portable. Neither fit in your pocket.

 

[bomb]

Sorry, but Nintendo said it's a home gaming system first and foremost.
So yeah, it's a home console imho and it's priced as one.

it's a hybrid. get out of here.

 

[Greninja96]

They will reach that number faster than that