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[Aleh]

The negative predictions in this thread are downright hilarious to say the least, I can't believe people can actually think the Switch will sell less than Wii U (which never got a price drop, had terrible marketing, wasn't very desirable -to me at least-, didn't get as many first party games as it could have [Animal Crossing in primis] and a myriad of other problems...). Except the price, which can be fixed, the Switch is the complete opposite AND will get freaking HD Pokémon, Animal Crossing and everything that used to come out on the 3DS.
40mil is realistic, and it could sell even more than that.

 

[darkazcura]

The main reason for that is the Wii-> Wii U transition.

So... Yeah, it is Nintendo-specific.

..you are looking at this all wrong then.

The original post was taking about 3DS decline anyway.

I didn't think this would be news here, but guys the whole console and handheld market has declined a ton. It isn't Nintendo specific lol. If it hasn't a lot of those sales should have shifted over to Sony and Microsoft, but..they didn't. There aren't a lot of multi console owners out there either. The people who bought the Wii never moved on to other systems. That is a contraction.

 

[Hero]

The main reason for that is the Wii-> Wii U transition.

So... Yeah, it is Nintendo-specific.

Wii > Wii U is definitely a factor but Xbox One isn't making dents outside of the US. The PS4 is the only healthy home console and even then it's not performing like the market leader (Wii) did back in the day. There is definite contraction.

 

[onemanasylum]

..you are looking at this all wrong then.

The original post was taking about 3DS decline anyway.

I didn't think this would be news here, but guys the whole console and handheld market has declined a ton. It isn't Nintendo specific lol. If it hasn't a lot of those sales should have shifted over to Sony and Microsoft, but..they didn't. There aren't a lot of multi console owners out there either. The people who bought the Wii never moved on to other systems.

Those people were never gamers..my grandmother got a wii.....they were never going to stay in the market. Once the fad died so did that market.

 

[LordBaztion]

I don't think by 2020 but eventually it will. At some point that console will be $100 and have pokemon, so it will eventually be a success.

 

[xochipiltontli]

The handhelds went through a similar, though more successful, market pattern as the three consoles since Nintendo 64.

The Gameboy Advance was down, the DS was up, way way up, now the 3DS is down again.

Again, three data points, with a spike in the middle, isn't a trend.

I wouldn't say the GBA was down. It only had the spotlight for around 4 years but it sold 80 million. By comparison the Game Boy sold something like 120 million after 11 years of support, and it was on its way out pretty much until Pokemon resurrected it very late in its lifespan.

 

[boiled goose]

What's their prediction track record

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Exactly. You can admit as a gamer sharing fun with friends playing console games with controllers isn't strange. It's something we love to do. The screen is small but all impressions said it's perfectly serviceable. I'm absolutely sure early adopters will help other gamers see the extra value Switch brings, compared to smartphone games. That can only help adoption.

Sure. At least for the kid to young adult portion of the market that's the key. As a 38 year old I have zero interest in sharing games with others, gaming in public, have no local gamer friends etc.

But gaming nights of Goldeneye, Mario Kart 64, Tekken 3 back in college were huge fun. So maybe this can do that among those demographics.

I'm just skeptical. People have taken to the convenience of phones/tablets that can do everything vs superior standalone devices. Add in how bulky Switch is and I have a hard time seeing a lot of people ligging it around to share with others on college campuses or what not. More realistic exposure would be on planes, trains etc where people just see others using them and ask about them.

 

[onemanasylum]

What's their prediction track record

Horrid...they said x1 100 million. They predicted ps3 woulkd stomp 360 and catch up quick, like 2008/2009, etc...

 

[Kintaro]

How many units did PS4/XB1 sell in that time frame?

In three years? PS4 has sold 56 million or something like that WW?

I can't see Switch sniffing 40m in three years with only Nintendo and middling third party support. By 2020, we will be in the thrall of PS5 and Switch will look like a 3DS in terms of tech.

 

[chrislowe]

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

 

[darkazcura]

Those people were never gamers..my grandmother got a wii.....they were never going to stay in the market.

Okay? That point doesn't fly with me. It's just an excuse really that ignores the reality of what occurred and is occurring even today.

Fact of the matter is millions upon millions of people at one point wanted to buy a video game console and now they don't. The market has declined. Doesn't matter what your perception of their gamer cred was.

Even if you want to, let's go back to the GCN/Xbox/PS2 era. Is the current console market on track to match those sales in similar timeframes? Legitimately interested in that answer.

 

[notaskwid]

Wii > Wii U is definitely a factor but Xbox One isn't making dents outside of the US. The PS4 is the only healthy home console and even then it's not performing like the market leader (Wii) did back in the day. There is definite contraction.

Except that the Wii sales dropped sharply after 4 years in the marker and that is not likely to happen with the PS４. The Xbox is doing close enough to what the 360 did.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I believe that entirely depends on how fast they can get the price down to $199( whether by way of a dockless SKU, or a price-cut somewhere down the line). I think 40 million by 2020 is extremely generous, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

 

[Devilgunman]

It will be under WiiU.

 

[Duxxy3]

Yeah, the same company that slashed the 3DS price by $80 after what, 5 months?

Nintendo wouldn't dare.

Nintendo has taken different directions in the past 5 years. They made an enormous cut to save the 3DS from complete failure, and it largely worked. They left the Wii U price as is and it rotted on store shelves.

If the Switch starts to falter after the initial launch sell through, which Nintendo will show up? The one that saved the 3DS, or the one let the Wii U die?

 

[shotgunbob04]

The Switch is going to do horribly.

There will be good bundle deals on PS4 Pros as well as standard PS4s this holiday season.

Ditto for Xbox One S. Scorpio should be out by Christmas 2017, and will most likely have great deals on it in 2018.

Both Sony and Microsoft have more affordable consoles with huge game catalogs at low prices. A lot of cheap, family-friendly games. They also play Blu-rays and DVDs, can stream stuff like Netflix and Hulu, and have online stores that are actually decent.

 

[Pureauthor]

Well if they do get to 40 million it'll be on the back of their portable market so price cuts aplenty! I for one will be glad for that.

 

[onemanasylum]

Okay? That point doesn't fly with me. It's just an excuse really that ignores the reality of what occurred and is occurring even today.

Fact of the matter is millions upon millions of people at one point wanted to buy a video game console and now they don't. The market has declined. Doesn't matter what your perception of their gamer cred was.

Yeah nintendos market declined...

 

[HardRojo]

Seems like a reasonable number, considering it will have Pokémon and other stuff like Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Smash (I guess?) and MonHun. I don't expect it to do much better than that though, I have it at around 65M lifetime.

 

[cubicle47b]

If the Switch starts to falter after the initial launch sell through, which Nintendo will show up? The one that saved the 3DS, or the one let the Wii U die?

It has to be the one that saved the 3DS or it will quickly become the one that makes mobile and PS4 games.

 

[Justified]

Only seeing this if they price cut, and market it as the 3DS successor

 

[LordRaptor]

I assume those of you saying "theres no contraction, its just nintendo sold less" aren't actually following sales numbers and assume "the industry" means "hardware sales of Sony and Ms, home consoles only, final destination"

 

[tr1p1ex]

Sales depend on whether this is going to be Nintendo's 1 platform or not.


If it is then I think 40 million is easy.



If not we're back to Wii U - Gamecube range unless 1 2 Switch is a mainstream hit or Splatoon 2 really takes off. I do think it will do better than Wii U cause of the hardware and big games being launched the 1st 9 months.

 

[darkazcura]

Yeah nintendos market declined...

Yeah I honestly couldn't care less about who won what and who lost what. I'm talking about the overall health of the console market. Nintendo dropped the ball, but Sony and Microsoft also dropped the ball by failing to attract those new gamers from Nintendo. I don't understand how some aren't getting this.

I assume those of you saying "theres no contraction, its just nintendo sold less" aren't actually following sales numbers and assume "the industry" means "hardware sales of Sony and Ms, home consoles only, final destination"

It's mind boggling really..

 

[entremet]

Seems realistic with the 3DS install base, and a natural degradation of the handheld market share.

But still, way too early bro

It's not too early for market research and investment firms.

For pundit yes.

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

Marketed well and with the right software, I'd say that's doable. The 3DS managed 60+ million units and with the Switch you'll have those customers, Wii U customers, other gaming customers, plus others that are curious to check out Nintendo's new offering.

 

[ethomaz]

Seems realistically with moderate success.

Better than what XB1 is selling... way lower than PS4.

 

[Toxi]

..you are looking at this all wrong then.

The original post was taking about 3DS decline anyway.

I didn't think this would be news here, but guys the whole console and handheld market has declined a ton. It isn't Nintendo specific lol. If it hasn't a lot of those sales should have shifted over to Sony and Microsoft, but..they didn't. There aren't a lot of multi console owners out there either. The people who bought the Wii never moved on to other systems. That is a contraction.

The handheld market has certainly imploded. Both the 3DS and the Vita were massive drops in comparison to their predecessors.

But in home consoles? We have a PlayStation doing about as well as the PS2, a Xbox doing better than the original Xbox... And a Nintendo system doing much worse than the original GameCube. Hell, the only reason why the Switch can do well is its status as a handheld.

The huge Wii audience is not the normal home console audience. It was a spike Nintendo created by targeting new demographics, but then Nintendo failed to keep that audience. Why would they move to a system like the PS4 or XboxOne? They're not an audience interested in the traditional home consoles. Microsoft tried to reach them with Kinect, but there's a huge difference between paying 500 dollars vs 250 for that experience.

If you want to disagree with this, ask yourself what Nintendo's blue ocean approach with the Wii was. It was not expanding the traditional audience, it was creating a new one.

 

[hemo memo]

Seems like a reasonable number, considering it will have Pokémon and other stuff like Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Smash (I guess?) and MonHun. I don't expect it to do much better than that though, I have it at around 65M lifetime.

Wii U have Smash - Mario Kart - Super Mario 3DW - Splatoon.

 

[Hero]

Except that the Wii sales dropped sharply after 4 years in the marker and that is not likely to happen with the PS４. The Xbox is doing close enough to what the 360 did.

If the generation is as long as last time PS4 may stay on the current trajectory, but I have doubts since PSVR and PS4 Pro haven't made a noticeable effect.

And while Xbox One is around 360 levels, this upcoming point in 360's life Microsoft released the Xbox 360 Slim and Kinect which really boosted the console. Xbox One Slim is already out and the Kinect didn't even make it more than one year before being killed. Expecting Xbox One to continue matching pace with the 360 is folly.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

Industry contraction is very real, its just a question of by how much.

We'll see. For now I disagree. I think it's expanding in terms of numbers of people. But contracting in hardware sales and game sales. The first, as I said as more people are fine sticking with one console and third parties dominate. The next due to the rise of games as service. Why by a bunch of games (or more than one console) if you just play Destiny or Overwatch etc. all the time?

Industry contraction talk also ignores the huge explosion of mobile that shifted a lot of gamers--especially the casual Wii/DS folk that were mainly into Wii Sports, Wii Play, Brain Age, Nintendogs type games from dedicated hardware to mobile gaming.

So I think it's mostly semantic. Gaming is bigger than ever in terms of number of people playing games. But it is contracting financially in the core gamer segment as fewer buy multiple consoles, gamers buy fewer games as they spend more time with endless games, and more play on mobile where things are cheap or F2P with micro transactionsj and so on.

 

[Noobcraft]

That's a bit still optimistic no? At $400 with no game (at least in Canada), I don't see it moving that much.

Well Canada's population should hit around 40M around 2020, so all Nintendo needs to do is sell a Switch to every Canadian.

 

[Inferno313]

The handheld market is shrinking due to the popularity of phones/tablets, you can deny this if you want, that's a fact.

I'm not arguing that the market hasn't changed, sorry if my comments came across that way. The market has clearly changed, especially when it comes to handhelds, and to me, the design philosophy of the Switch seems to be Nintendo's response to the changing market.

I'm simply responding to the notion that 40 million is an unrealistic number, and that Nintendo isn't likely to have a successful platform again, which is a pessimistic view that doesn't accurately account for Nintendo's history.

 

[killroy87]

Nintendo has taken different directions in the past 5 years. They made an enormous cut to save the 3DS from complete failure, and it largely worked. They left the Wii U price as is and it rotted on store shelves.

Because they (correctly) knew that price wasn't the achilles heel of the Wii U the way it was with the 3DS. Dropping price would have meant a temporary boost in sales for a couple months, and then Nintendo losing money on units.

If the Switch launches, and sells poorly despite a constant stream of quality software, then it's safe to say they need to drop the price. I was never, and will never be, convinced that a price drop for the Wii U would have changed anything significantly.

 

[PSFan]

I assume those of you saying "theres no contraction, its just nintendo sold less" aren't actually following sales numbers and assume "the industry" means "hardware sales of Sony and Ms, home consoles only, final destination"

You mean how you are assuming that "the industry" is only Nintendo, like they are in charge and determine everything?

As others have said, MS and Sony are doing fine. Nintendo is the one on the decline, both console and handheld. Wii and DS were outliers, WiiU and 3DS are a return to reality. Yes, the 3DS is selling less than the GBA and probably won't outsell it.

 

[Murdamonk]

An exclusive Pokemon on the Switch could push 10 million alone.

Do we have a number of copies sold for Pokemon Sun/Moon? And have an attached ratio to 3ds sold?

Pokemon or Monster hunter sure does help, but..

 

[Angel_DvA]

With a price cut on hardware and its accessories, third party support, decent online service, good amount of first party game, an exclusive Pokémon game and luck, they can do it...

 

[hiim_haz]

It's quite possible it could reach those numbers. I think people here shouldn't underestimate Nintendo. It's very much a wait and see situation to see how the market reacts, but I'd definitely project it at a lower number than 40 Million.

 

[Herb Alpert]

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

It will be under WiiU.

Sigh...

 

[BlastProcessing]

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

You think the Switch will only sell 5 million units across 5 years?

I'm gonna go ahead and save this post and we will see how this goes.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

...

 

[Dark Cloud]

Wii U have Smash - Mario Kart - Super Mario 3DW - Splatoon.

Wheres Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Yokai Watch, Fire Emblem? Does the Wii U have the portability of the Switch?

This must be flagged as fake news ;-) cant see the switch sell that many.

Maybe 5 million.

This is sarcasm, right? lol

 

[darkazcura]

The handheld market has certainly imploded. Both the 3DS and the Vita were massive drops in comparison to their predecessors.

But in home consoles? We have a PlayStation doing about as well as the PS2, a Xbox doing better than the original Xbox... And a Nintendo system doing much worse than the original GameCube. Hell, the only reason why the Switch can do well is its status as a handheld.

The huge Wii audience is not the normal home console audience. It was a spike Nintendo created by targeting new demographics, but then Nintendo failed to keep that audience. Why would they move to a system like the PS4 or XboxOne? They're not an audience interested in the traditional home consoles. Microsoft tried to reach them with Kinect, but there's a huge difference between paying 500 dollars vs 250 for that experience.

If you want to disagree with this, ask yourself what Nintendo's blue ocean approach with the Wii was. It was not expanding the traditional audience, it was creating a new one.

I don't deny Nintendo dropped the ball to keep those gamers around, but Sony and Microsoft could have also picked up on that market trend. They both certainly tried as you noted with Kinect and Move, but price probably kept them out as you noted. To me that doesn't read as a Nintendo only decline. Sure technically, but I get worried about the overall health of the industry, and I'm not going to ignore all those people picking up and leaving. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[Cidd]

A niche product like the switch will be lucky to sell 20Mil..

But good luck to Nintendo you're gonna need it.

 

[BlastProcessing]

With a price cut on hardware and its accessories, third party support, decent online service, good amount of first party game, an exclusive Pokémon game and luck, they can do it...

They don't even need all of those to hit 40 million. Just Pokemon and any other one would get them there. If they get all the things you list, they'll do double that.

 

[cubicle47b]

Do we have a number of copies sold for Pokemon Sun/Moon? And have an attached ratio to 3ds sold?

10 million in 4 weeks. I've only seen numbers through mid-December.

 

[Majmun]

...

Haha yeah, that's crazy

I'm guessing around 40-50mln LTD. Better than N64, but less than 3DS.

 

[yesrushdt]

Nintendo will be lucky to sell 15-20 million units through 2020 IMO.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I think its going to struggle in its first year and it looks like Nintendo agree's, thats why everything is so expensive, they need to maximize the profits they get from the hardcore Nintendo fans who will buy the Switch no matter what.

In 2018 they could release different Sku's to lower the price. A slim model, a console only model, a portable only model. If things go well they could have a $150 slim portable model with Pokemon, thats where the Switch starts making sense for consumers.