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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
that would be an amazing number, for a Nintendo home console coming from the Wii U, and still a good one for a portable coming from the 3DS, considering it is for less than 4 years on the market.
to match that result, they will need to cut the price/offer bundles and officially demonstrate to the mass market that the Switch actually is the successor to both the Wi U and the 3DS.
FE Switch is a good sign (but the only one so far)
to match that result, they will need to cut the price/offer bundles and officially demonstrate to the mass market that the Switch actually is the successor to both the Wi U and the 3DS.
FE Switch is a good sign (but the only one so far)
lightskintwin
Banned
As somebody who's been critical of the Switch, there's no denying it's potential for massive success. Especially at the right price point and game bundle. If by next year's holiday season they can get it down to $199 with a game, then I can see it flying off of the shelves.
Graphics Horse
Member
No and they don't need to until early May-ish, so they'll have a better idea by then
BRocknRolla
Member
The amount of things that could happen between now and 2020 for a new console... I just don't for a second buy these long term projections. Far too many unknowns about the console right now. After a year, I could see making long term predictions with some amount of veracity, but not right now.
Yup. Especially if by then they have Animal Crossing and Pokemon out for it.
That's a legitimate concern. Don't you give credit to the viral nature of Switch though? What if a friend of yours buy it, gives you and your mates joy-cons, and you're all having fun playing Bomberman, Mario Kart or Fifa at college, work, whatever the location you spend most of your time?
I think that's too high, sadly. I'm just not convinced the hybrid factor is as appealing as Nintendo seems to believe.
I mean, do handheld gamers even care about being able to play on the TV?
The 3DS didn't sell well until it had a massive price cut down to $169, and the Switch is nearly twice as expensive. I just don't see the handheld audience being willing to spend that much. Plus as someone else said - how are the games going to be priced? Does Nintendo expect the 3DS audience to suddenly be OK with spending $60 on new releases as opposed to $40?
Then you have the price of accessories, paid online and the device just not looking particularly child-friendly, and I just really don't see it.
I mean, do handheld gamers even care about being able to play on the TV?
The 3DS didn't sell well until it had a massive price cut down to $169, and the Switch is nearly twice as expensive. I just don't see the handheld audience being willing to spend that much. Plus as someone else said - how are the games going to be priced? Does Nintendo expect the 3DS audience to suddenly be OK with spending $60 on new releases as opposed to $40?
Then you have the price of accessories, paid online and the device just not looking particularly child-friendly, and I just really don't see it.
LordRaptor
Member
Wii Sports was a standalone title in Japan and, you know, did pretty well in Japan
Akhe
Member
Inferno313
Banned
That's only true of Nintendo home consoles, and, "Since N64" is only three platforms. You can't say there's a downward trend when you have three data points, and the middle one doesn't fit the other two.
I remember GAF in the olden days of when the Wii was first announced. Most posters here (and basically every video game forum like 1up, gamespot, etc) were sure the Wii would fail.
I also remember when most poster on here and other forums were so sure that the Vita was going to destroy the DS. I still recall that one pic/meme with 3 people playing vita at a table and 1 person playing the DS and something along the lines of "anyone there" on the DS screen.
Will the Switch sell 40m? Maybe, maybe it'll sell more, maybe it'll sell less. One thing is for certain, you shouldn't take how the "core" gamers feel about new hardware and how it will do as gospel. They have been wrong before.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
I'm just very skeptical of that happen--at least in the US. I used to see people with DSs and other portables all the time. I can't recall the last time I saw some one gaming on a portable in public (other than myself before I sold mine due to lack of use). And I live and work in a big city. And work at a large university so I'm regularly on an urban campus with tons of young adults that are the target age for that. Everyone was running around catching Pokemon when that came out. So gaming is happening. Just on phones.
So I'm very skeptical that people will buy this in droves, much less lug it around with their phones, tablets etc. to play in public. I know that's Nintendo's big hope, but I just don't see it. Especially people squinting at the small screen playing MP games in tabletop mode. That just seems absurd to me.
But stranger things have became popular, so only time will tell.
I know you only joined last year but the reaction to Wii on GAF is pretty much similar to the reaction of Wii and we know how that played out. 2x Gamecubes duct taped together and "I'll walk into Wal-mart on launch day and pick one up." be damned. You can't use historical data to try and prove your point and then arm-wave the massive success of Wii with a "lightning in a bottle!" away in the same post.
They still have to be available on the market ww for the same timeframe (they have been released later in Japan and was released in November in the West.
They are almost there, btw, se we could look at actual numbers for a similar comaprison
Xbox One around 27 millions
PS4 around 50 millions 54 millions
I think (but not sure about this) that the 3DS was around 35 millions after that time on the market. Not sure about it.
Something unprecedented happening one time is no reason to expect it every time.
darkazcura
Member
Some of you have to leave this bubble a bit I think. The Switch has gotten way more positive feedback than the Wii U could ever dream of, and all it takes is looking at some videos from some popular Youtubers to see that along with Twitter and FB trends the week of the event last week.
The only places where the reactions seem really negative are on these hardcore gaming forums, which makes sense. It is pretty much the antithesis of what hardcore gamers want at large, but the hardcore gaming audience is tiny so it's not a great sample size of what the general population feels about the product. Wii was the same way also and took many by surprise here.
I mean, really..people didn't even understand the Wii U enough to have a negative reaction about it. That's how poor the marketing and messaging was for that system. The Switch is on a completely different level.
Yes we do! At least I do. Animal Crossing and Pokemon are perfect examples of games that work perfectly for handheld and TV sessions.
Based on the launch lineup, it doesn't look like the games will be $60 across the board. I'm super interested to see how this goes though.
And I do foresee a price drop, both for the console and the accessories.
LordRaptor
Member
The problem with the "lightning in a bottle" theory is that Nintendo have "lighninged in a bottle" multiple times; the NES, the GB, the DS and the Wii were all market disruptors
NeoGaf's reaction to the DS was the same (failure, how can you play on both screens, stupid idea, third Pillar because it will fail and so on).
The sales potential is actually prety big if managed right, this will be Nintendo's game to play.
Inferno313
Banned
40 Million isn't a Wii-like success though, it's a 3DS-like success. Which seems totally doable.
onemanasylum
Banned
The 3ds is trending down, way down as well, that market is shrinking.
It's a good reason not to use GAF as the primary basis for your prediction. Especially since it isn't the only example, as shown in this thread.
Cynn
Member
You're going to find that the reaction on Gaf hardly ever correlates to the outside world. That said, 20 million does seem optimistic. I hope they can do it.
There's the flaw in your logic, right there.
Pureauthor
Member
Anyone who thought the Wii wasn't going to get crazy sales after the E3 reveal was out of their minds.
darkazcura
Member
I mean..the console/handheld games market has been declining across the board. This isn't Nintendo specific. Console numbers aren't coming anywhere close to matching the Wii/360/PS3 total combined numbers.
onemanasylum
Banned
Only because of Nintendo's decline, PS4 and x1 are ahead of their previous consoles.
The Switch isn't the 3DS and not a handheld / as portable as the 3DS.
40 million in 2020. Nope. Not even close.
hemo memo
You can't die before your death
I don't know where the postive reaction because mostly negative of what I have read and watched.
This is the latest https://youtu.be/LenzNAyRnWU
GregLombardi
Member
I agree. But that is not what people saw at the time, per se, as you will recall (at least in gaming circles).
Also keep in mind, that moment is now over a decade ago. The world has changed a lot, and I would argue that it is a lot harder to parse predictable success or failure in the current device landscape.
lol We're talking about Nintendo here.
Inferno313
Banned
The handhelds went through a similar, though more successful, market pattern as the three consoles since Nintendo 64.
The Gameboy Advance was down, the DS was up, way way up, now the 3DS is down again.
Again, three data points, with a spike in the middle, isn't a trend.
onemanasylum
Banned
Yeah same, most areas of social media the reaction i've seen is the same, same as wii-u.
cubicle47b
Member
A little over 40 million in 2 3/4 years. Close to 50 million in 3 3/4 years.
Exactly. You can admit as a gamer sharing fun with friends playing console games with controllers isn't strange. It's something we love to do. The screen is small but all impressions said it's perfectly serviceable. I'm absolutely sure early adopters will help other gamers see the extra value Switch brings, compared to smartphone games. That can only help adoption.
onemanasylum
Banned
The handheld market is shrinking due to the popularity of phones/tablets, you can deny this if you want, that's a fact.
darkazcura
Member
You have to take the whole market as a whole here. There are dozens of millions of console sales missing from last generation that could have shifted to One/PS4 sales but they haven't. The market has definitely contracted.
I do the same when I look at the DS/PSP sales vs 3DS/Vita. The handheld market has massively contracted even more so. Again this isn't a Nintendo specific thing. There aren't as many people buying these systems overall.
Yeah, the same company that slashed the 3DS price by $80 after what, 5 months?
Nintendo wouldn't dare.
The main reason for that is the Wii-> Wii U transition.
So... Yeah, it is Nintendo-specific.
Darkstorne
Member
The GAF popular opinion also thought Sony was done and PS4 was going to be their last console (and a huge failure). Don't ever trust the bandwagon.
onemanasylum
Banned
I never said it was not...follow the context of the conversation. It is largely at Nintendos expense, that's a fact regardless.
thanks
so it would be a huge leap over Wii U, a decrease udner the 3DS performances.
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