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[Carpe Libertatem]

The fact still remains that a large portion of the democratic vote that some folks are counting on live in Kennesaw. That's what we're saying. They're just barely outside of the district area, and again if they were a part of this district it would be Ossoff's victory handily. I would have been predicting at least 50% in his favor if that were the case.

It fucking sucks that Cobb is split up like this in the district.

No one is talking about this, though? We're talking about things like how Trump only won this district by 1.5%, it's only a R+8 district and moving to the left (and one of the fastest shifting districts in the country at that), and how Ossoff just went from no one knowing who he was to winning 48% of the vote in a jungle primary.

 

[Holmes]

I think "I live here" is a good way to back up facts and stats you can present to argue your case, or explain how you've seen the district evolve over the years, but I don't really wanna get involved in this pointless argument.

 

[zethren]

The lot of you who live there get too hostile over some discussions in this thread.

It's actually been a largely frustrating experience with this special election, to be honest. Most of my friends lean left (I have a few friends who lean libertarian), but about half of them could not vote today because of the districting lines. And they live in Kennesaw, or parts of Marietta right next to it, where lots of folks our age that vote Dem live.

That and the very agressive ad campaigning that has been going on against Ossoff, it's pretty ridiculous lol. You can drive for 20 minutes around here and go from redneck country to millennial hipster community to upper class white subdivision-land so many times, it'll make your head spin.

It's been a rough road trying to support Ossoff in a district where so many people are discounting him for dressing up like Han Solo (because our radio hosts give him ACTUAL shit for that) while supporting the most cookie cutter and awfull R in Karen Handel.

No one is talking about this, though? We're talking about things like how Trump only won this district by 1.5%, it's only a R+8 district and moving to the left (and one of the fastest shifting districts in the country at that), and how Ossoff just went from no one knowing who he was to winning 48% of the vote in a jungle primary.

He did much better than I was expecting, which is awesome. I hope he can keep momentum until June, and the fact that he got so much national attention definitely was a great thing. I'll be voting in the runoff, of course.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Ok, so...things are getting heated when there's no real reason for it.

I will say candidate quality matters. Ossoff wasn't the best recruit at the beginning because no Democrat actually thought they had a chance, but he put in the work and it showed. Sure, some nobodies do get swept in by waves, even if they are crappy candidates, but more often than not you need someone committed and who can represent the district well to have a real chance, and I think Ossoff fits that description.

Serious question: what would be a better fit for Ossoff? He's young, pretty handsome, seems personable, and has inoffensive appeals to these types of voters, like Hillary. His ads are all not mentioning social welfare spending and instead about ethics and national security and all that, which was basically her appeal to these voters against Trump. What would fit better?

 

[Ecotic]

Seriously though, where was this enthusiasm 6 months ago when we needed it in the Congressional elections? It's frustrating as hell to be in this sorry shape and to see that this kind of turnout potential existed all along.

 

[whyamihere]

Seriously though, where was this enthusiasm 6 months ago when we needed it in the Congressional elections? It's frustrating as hell to be in this sorry shape and to see that this kind of turnout potential existed all along.

Jon Ossoff never used a private email server.

 

[theWB27]

It's actually been a largely frustrating experience with this special election, to be honest. Most of my friends lean left (I have a few friends who lean libertarian), but about half of them could not vote today because of the districting lines. And they live in Kennesaw, or parts of Marietta right next to it, where lots of folks our age that vote Dem live.

That and the very agressive ad campaigning that has been going on against Ossoff, it's pretty ridiculous lol. You can drive for 20 minutes around here and go from redneck country to millennial hipster community to upper class white subdivision-land so many times, it'll make your head spin.

It's been a rough road trying to support Ossoff in a district where so many people are discounting him for dressing up like Han Solo (because our radio hosts give him ACTUAL shit for that) while supporting the most cookie cutter and awfull R in Karen Handel.



He did much better than I was expecting, which is awesome. I hope he can keep momentum until June, and the fact that he got so much national attention definitely was a great thing. I'll be voting in the runoff, of course.

I can dig it but...most of us want the same thing. Because someone doesn't agree with another's prediction doesn't change that we want the same person to win.

 

[zethren]

I can dig it but...most of us want the same thing. Because someone doesn't agree with another's prediction doesn't change that we want the same person to win.

That's the truth, my friend. Like I said I'll be voting for Ossoff in the runoff election, and urging my friends who can to do the same. So here's hoping!

 

[Arttemis]

What's the word on the ballot machine issues?

 

[jerry113]

Democrat candidates in R +5 or +10 districts should take a good hard look at this election and try even harder now.

 

[theWB27]

That's the truth, my friend. Like I said I'll be voting for Ossoff in the runoff election, and urging my friends who can to do the same. So here's hoping!

May your urging be successful.

 

[Holmes]

Serious question: what would be a better fit for Ossoff? He's young, pretty handsome, seems personable, and has inoffensive appeals to these types of voters, like Hillary. His ads are all not mentioning social welfare spending and instead about ethics and national security and all that, which was basically her appeal to these voters against Trump. What would fit better?

Scott Holcomb might have been a better candidate. But you are right that Ossoff ran a good campaign and was a much stronger candidate than anticipated. A lot of these kinds of things is like rolling the dice.

 

[KuroNeeko]

edit: Nevermind. I'm not going to derail the thread and it looks like you two have worked it out.

 

[Magni]

How many votes total can we expect from these 12% outstanding precincts?

With the votes as they stand now, Ossoff is 6,513 votes shy of 50%+1 (He currently has 90,732 out of 187,976 votes, 6,513 all to him would give him 97,245 out of 194,489).

Given that the Dem candidate last November got 34,185 more votes than Ossoff currently has, it certainly looks like the Dems dropped the ball regarding turnout. This was winnable today.

edit: with the final numbers, 8,703 shorts shy of 50%+1.

 

[whyamihere]

How many votes total can we expect from these 12% outstanding precincts?

With the votes as they stand now, Ossoff is 6,513 votes shy of 50%+1 (He currently has 90,732 out of 187,976 votes, 6,513 all to him would give him 97,245 out of 194,489).

Given that the Dem candidate last November got 34,185 more votes than Ossoff currently has, it certainly looks like the Dems dropped the ball regarding turnout. This was winnable today.

They're mostly GOP leaning districts that are left. Not heavily, but, gingerly.

Also -- it's almost impossible to match presidential turnout in a special election. The fact that 2014 turnout was matched is insane.

 

[Holmes]

Final result is Ossoff 48.1%.

 

[whyamihere]

Final result is Ossoff 48.1%.

I guessed 47% yesterday. Happily impressed.

 

[whyamihere]

Total Partisan vote:

D: 48.9%
R: 51.1%
I: 176 votes of 192,079

Going to be a crazy close runoff.

 

[Holmes]

I guessed 47% yesterday. Happily impressed.

Me too. Ossoff and his campaign have shown that they are committed to working hard these next couple of months and bring it home in June. Just sucks that it's another two months.

To go from a 24 point loss to a basically even D and R vote is impressive. Republicans gloating "$10 million and he lost!" even though he didn't are missing the big picture that these actual Republican districts are moving away from them at fast and alarming rates. Montana next month will paint a clearer picture because Democrats actually have success there regularly, unlike KS-04 and GA-06.

 

[Chumley]

Total Partisan vote:

D: 48.9%
R: 51.1%
I: 176 votes of 192,079

Going to be a crazy close runoff.

Eh that looks pretty rough for Ossoff. He needs Trump to get even more unfavorable and to campaign like crazy, not to mention get lucky as hell.

 

[whyamihere]

Me too. Ossoff and his campaign have shown that they are committed to working hard these next couple of months and bring it home in June. Just sucks that it's another two months.

To go from a 24 point loss to a basically even D and R vote is impressive. Republicans gloating "$10 million and he lost!" even though he didn't are missing the big picture that these actual Republican districts are moving away from them at fast and alarming rates. Montana next month will paint a clearer picture because Democrats actually have success there regularly, unlike KS-04 and GA-06.

He also built on HRC's margin in a district that wildly swung towards her.

Eh that looks pretty rough for Ossoff. He needs Trump to get even more unfavorable and to campaign like crazy, not to mention get lucky as hell.

It's also assuming every single Republican will come out and vote for Handel, which -- these things aren't necessarily transferable. That's why candidates matter. It won't be easy, but it won't be for Handel either. It's going to be a close race.

 

[Magni]

They're mostly GOP leaning districts that are left. Not heavily, but, gingerly.

Also -- it's almost impossible to match presidential turnout in a special election. The fact that 2014 turnout was matched is insane.

Not saying it was an easy task, but the only way to win is by having higher turnout than the other party. And the bar for that was set a lot lower this time due to it being a special election.

Turnout was relatively great for it being a special election, but turnout was objectively dismal (like most US elections unfortunately). There's 445,095 registered voters in GA-6, so this had a 43.47% turnout rate.

 

[whyamihere]

Not saying it was an easy task, but the only way to win is by having higher turnout than the other party. And the bar for that was set a lot lower this time due to it being a special election.

Turnout was relatively great for it being a special election, but turnout was objectively dismal (like most US elections unfortunately). There's 445,095 registered voters in GA-6, so this had a 43.47% turnout rate.

The Democrats dropped by the ball by failing to match presidential year turnout in an April special election is an objectively terrible bar.

 

[Magni]

The Democrats dropped by the ball by failing to match presidential year turnout in an April special election is an objectively terrible bar.

They needed ~81% of their November turnout (they got ~74%).

I dunno, maybe Republican voters will stay home in June, but I suspect they'll need more than ~81% of November turnout in June to win. Hence the "dropping the bar" bit.

Objectively easy to win straight out? No. Relatively easier than to win in a run-off? Yes.

 

[whyamihere]

They needed ~81% of their November turnout (they got ~74%).

I dunno, maybe Republican voters will stay home in June, but I suspect they'll need more than ~81% of November turnout in June to win. Hence the "dropping the bar" bit.

Objectively easy to win straight out? No. Relatively easier than to win in a run-off? Yes.

You're asking for what's fairly impossible by political standards! There's literally nothing comparable to what you're asking for or hoped for in modern politics. If that's dropping the ball, then every political party drops the ball every time there's a special election or a midterm!

 

[Mr. RPG]

Montana next month will paint a clearer picture because Democrats actually have success there regularly, unlike KS-04 and GA-06.

Yeah, that will be a very interesting race. Democrats lost by about 16 points in the 2016 election in Montana. Hopefully we will see a similar turn out in the election in Montana next month.

 

[Magni]

You're asking for what's fairly impossible by political standards! There's literally nothing comparable to what you're asking for or hoped for in modern politics. If that's dropping the ball, then every political party drops the ball every time there's a special election or a midterm!

So you're saying Democrats winning GA-6 is fairly impossible?

Maybe "dropping the ball" was a bit strong. But why else did the money pour in? It helped get great turnout for a special election, but not great enough. They "almost caught the ball" if you'd rather. End result is still the same though.

Let's see if they can catch it in June. Expecting no, hoping yes.

 

[whyamihere]

So you're saying Democrats winning GA-6 is fairly impossible?

Maybe "dropping the ball" was a bit strong. But why else did the money pour in? It helped get great turnout for a special election, but not great enough. They "almost caught the ball" if you'd rather. End result is still the same though.

Let's see if they can catch it in June. Expecting no, hoping yes.

No, I'm saying expecting any turnout in a special election that matching turnout in a presidential election. That's silly.

I do not know what will happen in June. I would not bet money on either Handel or Ossoff at this point.

 

[Rentahamster]

Everybody giving Cochese shit doesn't live here. I grew up here. I'm glad ossof got what he did, but you guys are acting as if Cochese is wrong because he's telling you what he thinks about this stuff while living in the district you're reading about. I'm sorry that doesn't mean something to you but growing up here I know EXACTLY what he's talking about. And I'd like to point out that these same people telling him he's wrong were the ones freaking the fuck out when Hilary didn't win, saying shit like "how could this happen" yet when you listened to the people on the ground they knew the score. The same applies here.

My only real hope is that our district has become more progressive due to the younger demographic around here. If the fucking district didn't extend up to Milton and instead included a huge chunk of the Kennesaw area then ossof would have won it. But there's a lot of people on this area that are entrenched in republican ideals by default because there's been such a solid red wall here as long as I've been alive. And when you go to the northern part of this district, a bunch of that area wasn't anything but rednecks and fucking fields 10 years ago. That's why Cochese has been saying what he has.

Agreed with this, and with Cochese, as another resident of this district for the past 10 years. This area has been rapidly expanding, and while the demographics are changing (as mentioned above due to the Kennesaw area and the MASSIVE influx of college aged millenials), there are still lots and lots of people who have lived here for decades that are more traditionally R.

Cobb county went blue in the general election, which I was proud of. But the 6th district is a bit different. It's not the whole of Cobb, which again would include Kennesaw and lend a much greater hand to a Dem victory. Without much of the millennial vote from Kennesaw, it's going to be much much harder for a dem victory here.

That said, a 48% score for Ossoff is better than I was expecting. I was expecting to be much more disappointed, but hoping for a victory of course.

It isn't a zero percent chance. But it is less probable than it is probable, to turn a familiar phrase. By a decent amount.

But let's say he does. What then? 2018? If anyone thinks he would have a great chance of being re-elected I'd ask them to stop getting high.

To those who live here: What is the local attitude towards Trump, and what percent of this election, in your estimation, was a referendum on Trump?

 

[Dead Prince]

So how exactly did Trump help? What is the outside money and fake media bs is he talking about? Lol old man doing old man things

 

[RPGCrazied]

I fucking told you Trump would take credit for this. Its not even a win yet. If anything Ossoff won, he wasn't suppose to do this good in a heavily R district.

This guy is pathetic. Sorry, just own it Trump supporters.

 

[Tovarisc]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/854547423464759296

 

[RPGCrazied]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/854547423464759296

He had media support? All the news I watched wasn't actively supporting him.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

To those who live here: What is the local attitude towards Trump, and what percent of this election, in your estimation, was a referendum on Trump?

People really dont like Trump and the results definitely show that Trump had an impact on the race but in this district you really are talking about the people who stand to make a substantial penny on any reduction in tax rates. Its a very wealthy district.

 

[Vanillalite]

Went to bed. See everyone's going in on my man Cochese despite being the one dude in this thread from GA that seems to know wtf is going on here.

Same bullshit happened in the general when *gasp* all my GA predictions we're right on despite everyone and their mother not from GA telling me I was off base.

 

[Vanillalite]

The Republicans stronghold is further north. It's been mainly southern areas reporting.

Let's hold off and see how it goes in Milton/Alpharetta.

Me from early in the night as I saw the map and saw who was reporting in. It was clear as day

Everybody giving Cochese shit doesn't live here. I grew up here. I'm glad ossof got what he did, but you guys are acting as if Cochese is wrong because he's telling you what he thinks about this stuff while living in the district you're reading about. I'm sorry that doesn't mean something to you but growing up here I know EXACTLY what he's talking about. And I'd like to point out that these same people telling him he's wrong were the ones freaking the fuck out when Hilary didn't win, saying shit like "how could this happen" yet when you listened to the people on the ground they knew the score. The same applies here.

My only real hope is that our district has become more progressive due to the younger demographic around here. If the fucking district didn't extend up to Milton and instead included a huge chunk of the Kennesaw area then ossof would have won it. But there's a lot of people on this area that are entrenched in republican ideals by default because there's been such a solid red wall here as long as I've been alive. And when you go to the northern part of this district, a bunch of that area wasn't anything but rednecks and fucking fields 10 years ago. That's why Cochese has been saying what he has.

Oh and look my other fellow Georgian posts what I already said hours ago cause those of us from here actually know how this shit is gonna go with the way the district is drawn.

Edit: Dems needs a 50 state strategy, but they need it run by people from those 50 states and not people running each other's shit from other states.

 

[Kilau]

So how exactly did Trump help? What is the outside money and fake media bs is he talking about? Lol old man doing old man things

Well...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...illion-in-georgia-special-election/100122138/

Some 95% of Ossoff’s donations have come from outside Georgia, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

As for the media, I don't know, but he had Alyssa Milano driving people to the polls!

 

[TheOfficeMut]

Someone mind explaining to me why a runoff is better for Ossoff now?

 

[RPGCrazied]

And this isn't Trump country? This Handel person needs to be poked and protted what she thinks of Trump and his agenda/policies.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

And this isn't Trump country? This Handel person needs to be poked and protted what she thinks of Trump and his agenda/policies.

She's one of the least trump-aligned Republicans that ran according to NPR. so she will probably have some moderate support.

 

[Dead Prince]

Soo... That means ossoff will be mentioned at the next rally Trump holds even if he doesn't have anything to do with the state. Putting my money on that

 

[Madness]

Someone mind explaining to me why a runoff is better for Ossoff now?

It isn't... his best chance was to get above 50%. Now he has a greater chance of losing the run off as the rest especially republicans consolidate behind Handel. He can still win this, but that 'knockout blow' they were looking for is gone and dem spending was a lot on this district. 2018 will be real key to see how things change.

 

[Ithil]

They "won" by not winning and needing a run-off in a heavily R district, with less then 2% within a Democrat win. What a win, Orangeatan.

 

[RPGCrazied]

Karen Handel‏Verified account
@karenhandel

.@realDonaldTrump thank you for the call this morning. #ga6

A few mins ago. lol

 

[Dead Prince]

A few mins ago. lol

"Your L wasn't as big as my L"

despite 11 rep vs like 4 dem and ossoff getting over 48% of the votes with handel at a third of that idk what to say other than. let's bring more stupid in the coming weeks.

 

[Ithil]

In the run-off, I assume it's simply whoever gets more votes wins? None of this 50% stuff.

 

[RPGCrazied]

"Your L wasn't as big as my L"

despite 11 rep vs like 4 dem and ossoff getting over 48% of the votes with handel at a third of that idk what to say other than. let's bring more stupid in the coming weeks.

Don't think its smart to be talking to this man. The guy that won the district by 1%. lol

 

[Vanillalite]

In the run-off, I assume it's simply whoever gets more votes wins? None of this 50% stuff.

It's 1v1 so barring some statistical miracle one person will have 50%+1.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

They "won" by not winning and needing a run-off in a heavily R district, with less then 2% within a Democrat win. What a win, Orangeatan.

There were 4 legit R candidates compared to only 1 D. It wasn't that they needed a runoff it's that the number of candidates made it extremely likely there would be one.

 

[Saint Gregory]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/854547423464759296

Trump's just mad that Ossoff got a higher percentage of the vote than he did in his election. Too bad we have higher standards for victory at the state level than there is nationally.