It really didn't. It's a heavily R district.
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Georgia special election heads to runoff as Ossoff earns 48% of vote
- Thread starter RPGCrazied
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It really didn't. It's a heavily R district.
LegendofJoe
Member
Agreed, data is a great tool to inform decisions but it isn't a substitute for having direct knowledge and experience with an area and its people.
Adjusted for rain, which typically helps Republicans, then there's nothing between them. Maybe you can adjust for misogyny too. However Democratic turnout could be lower next time because we're feckless.
CarpeDeezNutz
Member
Good for you. However there's decades of exquisitely detailed data to prove I'm correct
Most Republicans in Georgia don't consider Karen Handel to be a member of their party for whatever reason. It's almost misogynistic. She believes in the same garbage they do (defund Planned Parenthood, build a stupid wall, screw the poor, etc.) She will get absolutely zero support from Republicans, even if she's their candidate.
Servbot #42
Unconfirmed Member
It's too bad Ossof didn't get 50%, now according to most articles he is not favored to win in the runoff, that's too bad but he still has a shot. The fight continues.
RPGCrazied
Member
I heard Handel is not very well liked in that district. So there is some hope.
Trickster
Member
How would he be able to get more than 50% in the initial run, if he couldn't in a runoff?
Republicans rallying against 1 candidate to stop Ossoff rather than their vote being split amongst a field of R options.
Ossoff is being painted as an evil outsider ally of Nancy Pelosi around here, we'll see if that ultimately works.
Right, like 2006.
Wait...
Regular democrats aren't significantly worse at turning out than Republicans are. As a whole, less of people who would be democrats based on their views turn out because of a whole slew of factors. However, in general, the party not in power usually does well in midterm and special elections.
The only two exceptions are '98 and '02 both of which have very obvious explanations to why they are so.
Lower turnout for a primary in general, Republicans not knowing which of the 11 GOP candidates to vote for.
RPGCrazied
Member
All Ossoff has to do is go anti Trump. That should help. Not many Trumpers in that district. And it looks like Handel is getting close to Trump. At least on twitter she is.
Trickster
Member
But wouldn't the incentive to come out and vote for the first round have been just as high, in order to prevent him from getting the round 1 win?
I think that if the same dems show up for the runoff, he will win. I hope I'm right, but as you said, we'll see.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Where are you getting that from?
LegendofJoe
Member
I feel dirty suggesting this but do you all think that playing to GOP misogyny would help or hurt Ossoff's chances of beating her?
TheCochese
Banned
Those that want to bring up how well (or the lack thereof) Trump did in this district ignore what impact that had downticket: there was little. Price typically won elections by around 25-30%, and he won in 2016 by 23%.
Let's look at how Trump's presence impacted local elections for GA-6.Well, I suppose that we can look at ones where a Democrat even bothered to run?
Senate
032 - Unc
056 - 60-40
040 - 56-44 (includes part of Gwinnett County)
House
044 - Unc
045 - Unc
047 - Unc
048 - Unc
050 - Unc
051 - Unc
079 - Unc
080 - 51-49
081 - 59-41
The last two obviously are in DeKalb. 082 might also be in the 6th, which was won uncontested by a Democrat. The point I'm trying to make here is that this is hard R country. While DeKalb is a democratic stronghold, the northern portion in the 6th is less so, and is much less populated and show less turnout than N Fulton and E Cobb.
Now, let me give a little more insight on those Price numbers from above. Do you know I can really only recall one Price ad in the last decade or so? Republicans in the Sixth don't really have to do much more than pay the fee, get some yard signs propped up, and wait for the results. They often don't even respond to bio requests from the organizations that request them. No policy questions, nothing. You look at what the AJC puts out each election, organized by the League of Women Voters (among others), as a guide to your local elections. The Democrats respond. Quite comprehensively. What do you see, often, of the Republican candidates? "Candidate did not respond." Why should they, when Democrats often don't even bother to field candidates?
What you're trying to do is cram a 20 year shift into 20 weeks, and the facts simply don't support it. This isn't a demographic shift, this is a referendum on Trump. If Ossoff can successfully tie Handel to Trump and his failures, then he's got a chance. Not a great one, but a chance. He would do well to talk about how many less people would be covered under the Republican plan than no plan at all. He would do well to keep talking about spending, and in particular taxes. Handel, OTOH, what she needs to do is harp on taxes, abortion, religion, and local control. Sex might sell in Hollywood, but God and less taxes sell in the Sixth. At least here in Cobb, I think there is a good chance there are more churches here than houses selling for under $200k.
Someone said this is a different district than 2012. This is factually incorrect. While things are changing bit by bit, it is an extremely slow change. N Fulton county would have become Milton County if the state constitution hadn't capped the number at what it is now (sending tax money to S Fulton and the lack of local control). There are quite a few Northerners here, but it seems like they start to assimilate, and that might be due to the drastic difference in COL and the fact they are suddenly "rich" in comparison to what they were. You start to have different feelings when you come into a large amount of money or house thanks to COL differences.
The sheer amount of Republicans in this election was frankly surprising. I'm sure the thought was whomever won this primary with an R behind their name would come out on top eventually, and I think that has a strong chance of happening. There's people here who won't pull their elective trigger until a winner is apparent. I've seen way more Ossoff signs than I ever would have expected, but there is in total way more Republican signs. You'll slowly start to see the losers come down and Handel being put up in their place. It doesn't really matter which Republican wins, as long as the Republican wins.
There is a church just across the district line that is jokingly termed Six Flags Over Jesus. It's one of many super-large Baptist churches in the area. I actually quite like the pastor there, while he and I might have disagreements, he is pretty genuine in his beliefs and doesn't come across like a used car salesman that I'm usually familiar with. He had taken somewhat of a stand against Trump when the worst of what he did and said came out, but at the end of the day, he (and they) held their nose because of abortion. As has been said many times before, Republicans always fall in line when it matters. Republicans here also consistently vote against their best interests, particularly in terms of public transportation. We'd rather sit in traffic for a couple hours than see one penny sent to Atlanta for MARTA. Because taxes. And a fair bit of racism over in my area. It's slowly changing as things continue to get worse, but it isn't something I expect in the next decade or so.
That last portion is my message to you outside the district looking at this June election. Ossoff could win. It isn't as likely as Republicans falling in line and electing Handel. I don't want to be right, but I'm pretty sure I will be. The big variable here will obviously be Trump, but as noted above it might not trickle down how you think it will, not without some more connections than a tweet or two.
So, again: those who live here will answer the questions you have about this district. But above is what it is like on the whole.
Let's look at how Trump's presence impacted local elections for GA-6.Well, I suppose that we can look at ones where a Democrat even bothered to run?
Senate
032 - Unc
056 - 60-40
040 - 56-44 (includes part of Gwinnett County)
House
044 - Unc
045 - Unc
047 - Unc
048 - Unc
050 - Unc
051 - Unc
079 - Unc
080 - 51-49
081 - 59-41
The last two obviously are in DeKalb. 082 might also be in the 6th, which was won uncontested by a Democrat. The point I'm trying to make here is that this is hard R country. While DeKalb is a democratic stronghold, the northern portion in the 6th is less so, and is much less populated and show less turnout than N Fulton and E Cobb.
Now, let me give a little more insight on those Price numbers from above. Do you know I can really only recall one Price ad in the last decade or so? Republicans in the Sixth don't really have to do much more than pay the fee, get some yard signs propped up, and wait for the results. They often don't even respond to bio requests from the organizations that request them. No policy questions, nothing. You look at what the AJC puts out each election, organized by the League of Women Voters (among others), as a guide to your local elections. The Democrats respond. Quite comprehensively. What do you see, often, of the Republican candidates? "Candidate did not respond." Why should they, when Democrats often don't even bother to field candidates?
What you're trying to do is cram a 20 year shift into 20 weeks, and the facts simply don't support it. This isn't a demographic shift, this is a referendum on Trump. If Ossoff can successfully tie Handel to Trump and his failures, then he's got a chance. Not a great one, but a chance. He would do well to talk about how many less people would be covered under the Republican plan than no plan at all. He would do well to keep talking about spending, and in particular taxes. Handel, OTOH, what she needs to do is harp on taxes, abortion, religion, and local control. Sex might sell in Hollywood, but God and less taxes sell in the Sixth. At least here in Cobb, I think there is a good chance there are more churches here than houses selling for under $200k.
Someone said this is a different district than 2012. This is factually incorrect. While things are changing bit by bit, it is an extremely slow change. N Fulton county would have become Milton County if the state constitution hadn't capped the number at what it is now (sending tax money to S Fulton and the lack of local control). There are quite a few Northerners here, but it seems like they start to assimilate, and that might be due to the drastic difference in COL and the fact they are suddenly "rich" in comparison to what they were. You start to have different feelings when you come into a large amount of money or house thanks to COL differences.
The sheer amount of Republicans in this election was frankly surprising. I'm sure the thought was whomever won this primary with an R behind their name would come out on top eventually, and I think that has a strong chance of happening. There's people here who won't pull their elective trigger until a winner is apparent. I've seen way more Ossoff signs than I ever would have expected, but there is in total way more Republican signs. You'll slowly start to see the losers come down and Handel being put up in their place. It doesn't really matter which Republican wins, as long as the Republican wins.
There is a church just across the district line that is jokingly termed Six Flags Over Jesus. It's one of many super-large Baptist churches in the area. I actually quite like the pastor there, while he and I might have disagreements, he is pretty genuine in his beliefs and doesn't come across like a used car salesman that I'm usually familiar with. He had taken somewhat of a stand against Trump when the worst of what he did and said came out, but at the end of the day, he (and they) held their nose because of abortion. As has been said many times before, Republicans always fall in line when it matters. Republicans here also consistently vote against their best interests, particularly in terms of public transportation. We'd rather sit in traffic for a couple hours than see one penny sent to Atlanta for MARTA. Because taxes. And a fair bit of racism over in my area. It's slowly changing as things continue to get worse, but it isn't something I expect in the next decade or so.
That last portion is my message to you outside the district looking at this June election. Ossoff could win. It isn't as likely as Republicans falling in line and electing Handel. I don't want to be right, but I'm pretty sure I will be. The big variable here will obviously be Trump, but as noted above it might not trickle down how you think it will, not without some more connections than a tweet or two.
So, again: those who live here will answer the questions you have about this district. But above is what it is like on the whole.
Dead Prince
Banned
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Trump getting involved definitely screwed him. I know everyone here likes to shit on Trump but the guy got involved at just the right time twice in two weeks. He used his platform to get the vote out. Something i dont recall Obama doing a lot of. Trump is an asshole but he is an asshole who wins.
This also proves that Reps are perfectly fine with Trump's presidency. they always were. these guys like what he's doing. there is no such thing as a republican moderate or a republican with a conscience. if we have to beat trump, we cant rely on republicans, we have to get the dem vote out.
EDIT: dems can learn a thing or two from republicans. when it comes to falling in line, republicans do it time and time again at the command of their president. whereas democrats turn on each other just because we dont agree on 100% of the things. we stay home. vote third party. while the other team has no problems voting for a despicable human being.
This also proves that Reps are perfectly fine with Trump's presidency. they always were. these guys like what he's doing. there is no such thing as a republican moderate or a republican with a conscience. if we have to beat trump, we cant rely on republicans, we have to get the dem vote out.
EDIT: dems can learn a thing or two from republicans. when it comes to falling in line, republicans do it time and time again at the command of their president. whereas democrats turn on each other just because we dont agree on 100% of the things. we stay home. vote third party. while the other team has no problems voting for a despicable human being.
RPGCrazied
Member
Such a clown. I hope he damages her campaign just enough Ossoff wins.
Dead Prince
Banned
we're going to have to hire Paula Deen to get Dems to vote.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
I mean King's Ridge exists up Alpharetta/Milton. That's the kind of families we are talking about.
As much as he's firing up his base? What does the evidence say so far?
I think people are really overstating Handels chances in a runoff. This is the first congressional election I've ever seen with this many people tuning in. Most black radio hosts I listen to are promoting it and I can see alot of campaigning going on in the latino communities.
With Trump's dumbass taking victory laps I could easily see a fired up D base overtaking them in June...
With Trump's dumbass taking victory laps I could easily see a fired up D base overtaking them in June...
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
If there are 4 R candidates splitting the vote and the D needs 50% to win in a heavy Republican district then yes a runoff is very likely.
CarpeDeezNutz
Member
That "good for you" rustles my jimmys but I can't argue with the rest.
TheCochese
Banned
We still talking about the Sixth here, or did I miss something?
RPGCrazied
Member
Trump supporting her and vice versa?
TheCochese
Banned
Demographics. The Sixth is WSB territory, not V103.
Yep. Only black radio host on WSB that I'm aware of is Herman Cain, and he...is THOROUGHLY drowning in Trump's koolaid.
If all you listen to is WSB, your outlook is going to be very VERY skewed towards conservatives.
You listen to 107.9 or 94.5 or 102.9? They broadcast all over atlanta so they arent limited to the 6th but they've definitely have promoted the election. I live in a hugely hispanic area in Gwinnet and there have been Oscoff signs everywhere.
Fivethirtyeight says the runoff will be a toss up.
TheCochese
Banned
For those who don't know, here's the lineup for WSB every day:
Herman Cain
Rush
Erick Erickson
Hannity
You also have the Kimmer on 106.7, who really went full Trump mode in the last couple of years and is just vile. WSB was also the home of Neil Boortz (Libertarian Jesus), and WGST is where Hannity started getting national attention.
They could put a 50 foot statue of him up, it's not in the district.
That's awesome to hear! I haven't been out towards Gwinnet in some time.
It's definitely a different situation than I've seen before. I've had family from out of state ask me what district I'm registered in, and if I'm able to vote for Ossoff. That's NEVER happened before haha
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
In this thread I've seen sooo many random ass hot takes that don't actually pertain to the district in question and the people who live in it.
It's baffling.
For another look at some typical bullshit, Erick Erickson goes from shitting on Ossoff for dressing up like Han Solo in college, to nerding out over the new Star Wars trailer the very next day. These people are so far up the party's ass it's unbelievable, and it's been one of the most popular radio stations in the area for years.
I actually meant "good for you" in an approving and supportive tone. In part to not be "there's nothing we can do about it" guy.
RoninChaos
Member
... what? These guys are listening to AM750 and shit, they're not listening to black radio hosts unless it's Herman Cain, and you know damn sure he isn't telling people to vote for Ossoff.
TheCochese
Banned
All the candidates, regardless of party, were lumped together. The goal is to win 50%+1 in the primary. If not, the top two vote getters go to a second election where a simple plurality determines the winner.
Edit: wrong word choice.
But, why? I don't really follow how your elections work.
A plurality determines the winner.
I am not sure how you can avoid a person getting the majority, though, when you only have 2 choices.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
What does that mean? Why do Ossoff signs in Gwinnett matter? Those people don't live in the district!
1. Most elections here dont follow this
2. It is to allow voters to vote for their first choice and if that choice terms out to not be viable and no one gets 50% +1 majority those voters can revote in a 1 on 1 race.
Oh ok. So a second round of voting with just the top two.
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