TheCochese
Banned
You're the expert I guess.
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Georgia special election heads to runoff as Ossoff earns 48% of vote
- Thread starter RPGCrazied
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You're the expert I guess.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Great post, great insight. Like I said, stop using anecdotal evidence and address the data others and myself have brought up multiple times. If you're not interested in having a discussion beyond "I live in this district, so I know," then I guess we're done here.
TheCochese
Banned
I guess we are, since I no longer have direct access to the internal GOP data. You got me.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
Are you more interested in studying statistics or winning races. Cause one thing is for sure, Ossoff is not winning that district. Not now, not in June, never.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ossoff has to get like 5% of the people who voted for the Republican candidates not to show up in June to win or convince 3% of them.
... NEVER GONNA HAPPEN
Carpe Libertatem
Member
I don't think anyone ever brought up internal GOP data. All the data we've discussed is publicly available.
It's almost like you can use statistics to win races. Down with nerds!
Depends on how terrible Trump does between now and June.
Fancyarcher
Member
So close. At least we have until June.
Pee pee tape. Believe.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Handel's last comments about LGBT rights were that gay adoption should not be legal.
... This is, uhh, obviously not popular in GA-6.
But Handel was attacked in the jungle primary for being a loser squish RINO.
So I'm interested in how she'll handle gay rights issues over the next two months. If she flips to a more popular LGBT position, she could get hit by the hardcore conservatives for living up to their criticism. But if she doesn't flip then she's be hit on gay rights by basically everyone.
... This is, uhh, obviously not popular in GA-6.
But Handel was attacked in the jungle primary for being a loser squish RINO.
So I'm interested in how she'll handle gay rights issues over the next two months. If she flips to a more popular LGBT position, she could get hit by the hardcore conservatives for living up to their criticism. But if she doesn't flip then she's be hit on gay rights by basically everyone.
I lived in a heavily republican district most my life, I moved into a purple district. I can tell you it is possible to tip the scales from local shifting due to national politics, but shit like this is local and people will vote for the person with a D or an R next to their name 95% of the time every-time when they finally got up to vote for who represented them in their district. Congressional races are notoriously hard to predict outcome based only on polling because of the mix of local politics and partisan factors. If I saw a poll that told me McMorris Rogers had a 50% chance of losing to a dem challenger I would laugh at that poll, not because of where I lived, but what I knew of other areas besides where I lived that were in her district. This is a Republican 20+ district, you are not going to see a shift like this in one election cycle that is going to magically make Ossoff or any other person with a D next to their name that won't have a hill to climb. He is doing way better then he has any right to be, he still might have a chance in a runoff but removing the actual voting population voices that have been there forever from the equation and just trusting 'polls' is exactly what got us Trump in the first place. You want to help Ossoff win or help other dems be competitive, listen to people who have and currently are living in these districts for insight.
ryutaro's mama
Member
So the Dems forced a Game 7?
Bro, he missed the runoff win by less than 2%, and that's with other democrats running. Saying never ever in a situation like this is silly. I'd pressured as of right now I'd give Ossof a 50/50 chance which isn't half bad!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Why are we talking about polls when the actual vote results gave Ossoff 48% of the vote.
TheCochese
Banned
It isn't a zero percent chance. But it is less probable than it is probable, to turn a familiar phrase. By a decent amount.
But let's say he does. What then? 2018? If anyone thinks he would have a great chance of being re-elected I'd ask them to stop getting high.
The GOP forced a Game 7, really. But in this case, winning outright in a jungle primary is extremely rare.
Ossoff's performance was exceptional, and he's got probably a 50/50 shot at winning in June (538 put it at about that). Plus, who knows what shit Trump will do in the next two months?
The political currents that are powering Ossoff's campaign now (and, in your scenario, get him elected in June) will only get stronger as time passes. In November 2018, Trump will have been president for two years, and will almost certainly be far less popular than he is now.
SSPssp
Member
Yeah, happened to me too.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
A Democratic incumbent winning an R+8 district isn't that hard!
Incumbency is like a 5-10 point boost.
There are Republicans last year who won D+20 districts.
TheCochese
Banned
I'd be interested in seeing what the demo was on those first two points. I think a lot of what will be behind this district is the wealth aspect.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
For the first one (R+8 district):
http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index.6.pdf
The Cook Political Report knows a thing or two about this.
The GA-06 that exists today is different than the GA-06 that existed four years ago, let alone 20.
RoninChaos
Member
Everybody giving Cochese shit doesn't live here. I grew up here. I'm glad ossof got what he did, but you guys are acting as if Cochese is wrong because he's telling you what he thinks about this stuff while living in the district you're reading about. I'm sorry that doesn't mean something to you but growing up here I know EXACTLY what he's talking about. And I'd like to point out that these same people telling him he's wrong were the ones freaking the fuck out when Hilary didn't win, saying shit like "how could this happen" yet when you listened to the people on the ground they knew the score. The same applies here.
My only real hope is that our district has become more progressive due to the younger demographic around here. If the fucking district didn't extend up to Milton and instead included a huge chunk of the Kennesaw area then ossof would have won it. But there's a lot of people on this area that are entrenched in republican ideals by default because there's been such a solid red wall here as long as I've been alive. And when you go to the northern part of this district, a bunch of that area wasn't anything but rednecks and fucking fields 10 years ago. That's why Cochese has been saying what he has.
My only real hope is that our district has become more progressive due to the younger demographic around here. If the fucking district didn't extend up to Milton and instead included a huge chunk of the Kennesaw area then ossof would have won it. But there's a lot of people on this area that are entrenched in republican ideals by default because there's been such a solid red wall here as long as I've been alive. And when you go to the northern part of this district, a bunch of that area wasn't anything but rednecks and fucking fields 10 years ago. That's why Cochese has been saying what he has.
Lord Frieza
Member
I knew Ossoff winning outright was a pipe dream, but I can't help be disappointed anyway. Was really hoping he'd pull it through. But we had'em on the ropes.
I don't hold much hope in a runoff. I know it's supposedly 50/50, but once the GOP really kicks in it'll push it over. But at least it'll be close. Good sign even if it's not a win
I don't hold much hope in a runoff. I know it's supposedly 50/50, but once the GOP really kicks in it'll push it over. But at least it'll be close. Good sign even if it's not a win
Agreed with this, and with Cochese, as another resident of this district for the past 10 years. This area has been rapidly expanding, and while the demographics are changing (as mentioned above due to the Kennesaw area and the MASSIVE influx of college aged millenials), there are still lots and lots of people who have lived here for decades that are more traditionally R.
Cobb county went blue in the general election, which I was proud of. But the 6th district is a bit different. It's not the whole of Cobb, which again would include Kennesaw and lend a much greater hand to a Dem victory. Without much of the millennial vote from Kennesaw, it's going to be much much harder for a dem victory here.
That said, a 48% score for Ossoff is better than I was expecting. I was expecting to be much more disappointed, but hoping for a victory of course.
TheCochese
Banned
Appreciate the responses guys. We should do a meetup sometime, I didn't realize there were this many of us.
I may expand more on these points and talk about individual values relevant, but for now my ass needs sleep.
I may expand more on these points and talk about individual values relevant, but for now my ass needs sleep.
Stats matter, absolutely, but there's also things available stats can't account for like boots on the ground. Hillary made the same mistake of only considering statistical data and polling while disregarding reports from people actually doing legwork in key areas.
Just want to say again I appreciate that local people piping in here, its one thing in a statewide or national election to have anecdotes as there are far more complex factors involved then a small group of people can see, but history is always necessary for local and more regional affairs that just can't be diagnosed easily in polls unless you have been polling the district constantly. I am still happy with the result tonight, polls showed a great shift, he may not have one outright like some dems might have dreamed, but it is still a huge positive shift none the less, hoping for best in runoff, hoping for better elections in more traditionally competitive districts now
.Tinfoilhatsron
Banned
Exactly. These two posts are on point.
Edit: East Cobb is full of Suburban Republicans who were never voting Blue to begin with. I don't think Ossoff has much of a chance June 20, but I'm still votin' and convincing others. Might drop a couple bucks to Ossoff too. I wish to see one District turn Blue in my lifetime.
Trump could also fuck stuff over so bad, but I ain't holding my breath.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Funny thing is I'm pretty sure 99% of the people in here shitting on Ossoff and the Democrats would be running around like chickens with their heads cut off if something like this happened in reverse in a solid Dem-held district.
Remember, Democrats suck and never win anything. Except 2006, 2008 and 2012. Also it's the DNC's fault.
Remember, Democrats suck and never win anything. Except 2006, 2008 and 2012. Also it's the DNC's fault.
whyamihere
Banned
Ossoff goes into the runoff with a very high floor (a touch above 48%?), more enthusiasm, more boots on the ground, better data (he now has a very precise voter file that he knows who to target) and more $.
Karen Handel is a mediocre candidate with no love from the party establishment who's lost race after race and has that whole shit with the Komen Foundation. GA-6 supposedly has "treated her well", but she will barely (if that) crack 20%, even in a crowded field?
She might win, but this is absolutely going to be a tossup going into the runoff. Ossoff got a higher % than expected and is polling basically even with Handel in a runoff.
I get that some people live in the district, but also, places around you can sometimes change faster than you might expect. You can't say "well, the district has always voted this way." Tonight, some no-name Dem no one had heard of 6 months ago almost cleared 50% against a local state senator and a former Georgia Secretary of State.
Karen Handel is a mediocre candidate with no love from the party establishment who's lost race after race and has that whole shit with the Komen Foundation. GA-6 supposedly has "treated her well", but she will barely (if that) crack 20%, even in a crowded field?
She might win, but this is absolutely going to be a tossup going into the runoff. Ossoff got a higher % than expected and is polling basically even with Handel in a runoff.
I get that some people live in the district, but also, places around you can sometimes change faster than you might expect. You can't say "well, the district has always voted this way." Tonight, some no-name Dem no one had heard of 6 months ago almost cleared 50% against a local state senator and a former Georgia Secretary of State.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Both of these posts are like that Congressman holding a snowball as proof climate change isn't real.
capitalCORN
Member
QFT.
AllIsOneIsNone
Banned
I live in the District, and I can tell you I agree. And it is changing, from the bottom up. But a huuge portion of it is...well I don't want to label anyone, but it gets more country the farther out of the perimeter you go, and it gets more rich the further north you go, so...
Lol
The point is that yeah, it's great that Ossoff did as well as he did. I was expecting to be disappointed, and 48% is great. Based on my experience living in this area, and it seems others would agree, it might be tougher for him in runoff situation due to Handel's name recognition and the R next to her name. The 6th district doesn't have all of the same residential demographics that had Cobb go blue in November, if it did then I'd say that Ossoff would win handily.
Keep energized and keep supporting, keep telling any friends and family in the area to vote if they can come June. It's not over by any stretch.
^^^edit:
Exactly. There are a ton of rich, white conservatives mixed with rednecky folks here. It's a weird place sometimes, man.
The point is that yeah, it's great that Ossoff did as well as he did. I was expecting to be disappointed, and 48% is great. Based on my experience living in this area, and it seems others would agree, it might be tougher for him in runoff situation due to Handel's name recognition and the R next to her name. The 6th district doesn't have all of the same residential demographics that had Cobb go blue in November, if it did then I'd say that Ossoff would win handily.
Keep energized and keep supporting, keep telling any friends and family in the area to vote if they can come June. It's not over by any stretch.
^^^edit:
Exactly. There are a ton of rich, white conservatives mixed with rednecky folks here. It's a weird place sometimes, man.
RoninChaos
Member
You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. The surge of democratic voters you guys think exist here, guess what? They showed up today. A shit ton of republicans didn't. If republicans follow their normal patterns of falling in line and showing up Ossof will not win in the run off. Especially the country mother fuckers up in Milton who are the definition of the republicans you people make fun of. They all live up there, mixed with the rich white guys who don't want their taxes raised. And they will show the fuck up if someone from crooked Hilary's party might win their district. If the Kennesaw area was included in this district there wouldn't be a run off because all of the democrats in this area are concentrated out of this district. You don't know that because you're looking at a map instead of being out here. I've been here 30 years. You didn't know Cobb count existed 30 days ago. You can make whatever insulting comparison you want but the fact remains you don't live here in this district and you don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
whyamihere
Banned
Actually, Republicans generally showed up today? The vote total is going to be a parity with the 2014 midterm.
That's why it's probably a coin flip for a runoff.
These tactics continue to work so why not? smh
Ok, so...things are getting heated when there's no real reason for it.
I will say candidate quality matters. Ossoff wasn't the best recruit at the beginning because no Democrat actually thought they had a chance, but he put in the work and it showed. Sure, some nobodies do get swept in by waves, even if they are crappy candidates, but more often than not you need someone committed and who can represent the district well to have a real chance, and I think Ossoff fits that description.
I will say candidate quality matters. Ossoff wasn't the best recruit at the beginning because no Democrat actually thought they had a chance, but he put in the work and it showed. Sure, some nobodies do get swept in by waves, even if they are crappy candidates, but more often than not you need someone committed and who can represent the district well to have a real chance, and I think Ossoff fits that description.
RoninChaos
Member
Dude, the majority of the positions in this district run unopposed. Why do you think that is? And again, the largest concentration of democrats in this area are in Kennesaw, which is NOT part of the district that voted tonight. But please, keep telling me about the place I live in because you're the expert. You obviously have more insight than all of the posters here who told you guys what this outcome would be based on the fact that we fucking live here.
The fact still remains that a large portion of the democratic vote that some folks are counting on live in Kennesaw. That's what we're saying. They're just barely outside of the district area, and again if they were a part of this district it would be Ossoff's victory handily. I would have been predicting at least 50% in his favor if that were the case.
It fucking sucks that Cobb is split up like this in the district.
The lot of you who live there get too hostile over some discussions in this thread.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Just to put this in perspective: imagine Keith Ellison vacated his seat to run the DNC and we only won the special election to replace him 52/48. Democrats would be shitting themselves right now.
whyamihere
Banned
I literally don't even know what you're yelling about or why you're replying with this post, but okay!
Well, I'm not talking about Cobb County as a whole, I'm talking specifically about what's in GA-6 and why the runoff is probably a coin flip and why it's been polling as such and why Handel is sort of a weak candidate.
Eeeehhhh... don't get me wrong it's nice to have your input as someone who lives there, but anecdotal evidence does very little to sway my opinion. If you want to convince me, show me stats and give me convincing arguments.
"Trust me, I live there" is not a convincing argument. You wouldn't see me doing it about where I live, so I'm not going to be convinced when people do it from where they live. I think that's part of the reason people were so dismissive. Anecdotal evidence is fine to frame an argument, but should never be used as an argument itself.
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