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[Carpe Libertatem]

I distinctly remember being told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about in the Pol thread a few days before the election. Talking about a silent Trump vote coming out.

But that's none of my business.

There was a silent Trump vote that came out in this election, even though Ossoff is likely going to perform better than most polls had him??

 

[numble]

Take it from the people who live here. That district is HEAVILY Republican. Republicans in Georgia don't have much to vote for in a general presidential election so you havent seen the true voter representation there yet. They will show up in full force come June for whoever has an R beside their name in order to keep that district red.

326,005 voted in 2016. 210,504 voted in 2014. Can I bet you money that turnout will be lower than 2016?

 

[Allard]

Yes, I'm sure we will see higher voter turnout in a special election in June than in a presidential election

lol

As someone that believes its still possible I think you need to take a step back and appreciate the analysis for the people that live there given the fact that congressional races are very local affairs based on how districts are designed. We should trust their opinion on this till its proven wrong, best to prepare what is to come. I still think what is happening is a win for trends nationwide, but after listening to them I think its best we trust what they have to say in this regard until its proven differently.

 

[Neoweee]

NM

 

[UraMallas]

Yes, I'm sure we will see higher voter turnout in a special election in June than in a presidential election

lol

Sometimes, you can be too close to the subject.

 

[TheCochese]

There was a silent Trump vote that came out in this election, even though Ossoff is likely going to perform better than most polls had him??

Sigh.

Before the NOVEMBER election.

None of this has anything to do with a silent trump vote. This is pretty much exactly in line with what polls expected.

You too?

 

[CazTGG]

326,005 voted in 2016. 210,504 voted in 2014. Can I bet you money that turnout will be lower than 2016?

Speaking of midterm turnout, if Dems do see a significant increase in support and get the House back in 2018, does that mean they get to redraw the lines come 2020?

 

[StopMakingSense]

Speaking of midterm turnout, if Dems do see a significant increase in support and get the House back in 2018, does that mean they get to redraw the lines come 2020?

That is done on the state government level.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Sigh.

Before the NOVEMBER election.

I mean, Trump won the district by 1.5%, which was about 20% less than what Romney/traditional Republicans won it by. Some silent vote! Was it projected that Hillary would win GA-6 or something?

I don't even necessarily think Ossoff is going to win. I think it's going to be a close, competitive race. It's certainly not a "done deal," as you called it.

As someone that believes its still possible I think you need to take a step back and appreciate the analysis for the people that live there given the fact that congressional races are very local affairs based on how districts are designed. We should trust their opinion on this till its proven wrong, best to prepare what is to come. I still think what is happening is a win for trends nationwide, but after listening to them I think its best we trust what they have to say in this regard until its proven differently.

I don't care where a person lives - a special election in June is not going to have higher turnout than a presidential election and anyone who predicts otherwise is making a wildly flawed prediction based on feelings instead of data.

 

[numble]

As someone that believes its still possible I think you need to take a step back and appreciate the analysis for the people that live there given the fact that congressional races are very local affairs based on how districts are designed. We should trust their opinion on this till its proven wrong, best to prepare what is to come. I still think what is happening is a win for trends nationwide, but after listening to them I think its best we trust what they have to say in this regard until its proven differently.

Being a local peach does not mean that you have any special information on how special elections will happen in the district, especially a claim that there will be higher turnout than the 2016 election. The last special election was 20 years ago.

 

[Slater]

I distinctly remember being told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about in the Pol thread a few days before the election. Talking about a silent Trump vote coming out.

But that's none of my business.

Gaf is filled with people from Blue states or purple areas, at least enough so that they don't have the proper exposure like you,me and some others do to what its like in proper republican areas, and the factors you need to actually win there, its very annoying.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Any idea what's taking Fulton so long?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Any idea what's taking Fulton so long?

Big Boss used them all up

 

[Boke1879]

Any idea what's taking Fulton so long?

Technical difficulties I think.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Any idea what's taking Fulton so long?

Tech support slacking.

 

[Holmes]

I distinctly remember being told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about in the Pol thread a few days before the election. Talking about a silent Trump vote coming out.

But that's none of my business.

Well where is the silent Trump vote located? Ossoff outperformed the polls and the most establishment candidate got the most votes out of all Republicans and did so by running up the margins in the most Republican part of the district, northern Fulton (former Milton).

 

[wandering]

It's the Russians

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

326,005 voted in 2016. 210,504 voted in 2014. Can I bet you money that turnout will be lower than 2016?

Poorly chosen words in the previous post I will admit. But what I'm saying is that normally these voters have little to show up to the polls for. They know the district is going red and they know the state is going red. If you give them something to actually show up for their numbers will increase at a rate that exceeds what the Democrats will bring to the polls. The race being close now means nothing. All its doing is saying hey in June, the rest of you guys come on down. There is no reserve set of likely Democratic voters to pull from there.

 

[giga]

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/854539503494729729

…

lol ✌🏽

 

[BigWeather]

Ossoff outperformed Clinton by 1.4% in Cobb and 1.6% in DeKalb. Assuming that he outperforms Clinton by the average, 1.5%, in Fulton will 47.9% be enough to stay at 50%+1?

 

[Alex_Mexico]

What's the score so far?

 

[Ac30]

What's the score so far?

Erdogan 1, Ossoff 0

There's a machine problem

 

[Earthbound64]

This CNN panel is fucking trash.

Take out two words from the above sentence to create another true statement.

This panel is fucking.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Poorly chosen words in the previous post I will admit. But what I'm saying is that normally these voters have little to show up to the polls for. They know the district is going red and they know the state is going red. If you give them something to actually show up for their numbers will increase at a rate that exceeds what the Democrats will bring to the polls. The race being close now means nothing.

These voters had the ability to pick which Republican candidate would possibly be their next Representative, though? Seems like a big reason to show up to me!

 

[mcfrank]

Ossoff outperformed Clinton by 1.4% in Cobb and 1.6% in DeKalb. Assuming that he outperforms Clinton by the average, 1.5%, in Fulton will 47.9% be enough to stay at 50%+1?

No. Needs 49

 

[Allard]

Ossoff outperformed Clinton by 1.4% in Cobb and 1.6% in DeKalb. Assuming that he outperforms Clinton by the average, 1.5%, in Fulton will 47.9% be enough to stay at 50%+1?

According to Cohn he needs 49%+

 

[TheCochese]

I mean, Trump won the district by 1.5%, which was about 20% less than what Romney/traditional Republicans won it by. Some silent vote! Was it projected that Hillary would win GA-6 or something?

I don't even necessarily think Ossoff is going to win. I think it's going to be a close, competitive race. It's certainly not a "done deal," as you called it.

Nationally. I said Trump had a legitimate chance to win the election when everyone else but Silver had called it for Clinton. I only bring this up because everyone here fashions themselves a pundit when they have little to no interaction with Republicans. Those of you who are trying to call this election from outside the district face a similar problem. These people are my neighbors, my coworkers, my family. They are people I polled in the past, people who would tell you the non-PC things that they wouldn't dare admit to if called on it.

When push comes to shove, these are reliable R voters. This district wouldn't be in play without Trump tainting the Republican Party, obvious notes about Price not being pulled out of it aside. If I were advising Handel, I'd tell her to keep Trump at arms length and play up her role as a D.C. outsider because it will resonate. Tell people you will push Republican values. Be pro life, pro 2A. She should win if she does that.

I predicted about a 2.2x run for Ossoff over Handel, falling short of 50%. I said more like 45%, so I'd be happy if he beats that. But knowing what I know about this place, I see June as a hard task for Ossoff to win. Certainly not impossible, and way closer than previous attempts, but if anyone in here is putting too much faith in it I'd tell them to step back. It will certainly be good that RPACS have to dump a lot of money here, but so will Dems. One of those has a spending advantage and is playing from the short tees.

It would probably be easier for those who doubt what I am saying to ask me and others questions about this area than have to repeat ourselves.

 

[BigWeather]

No. Needs 49

According to Cohn he needs 49%+

Ouch, yeah, that's quite a hill to climb. Thanks for the info.

 

[Dead Prince]

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/854539503494729729

…

lol ✌🏽

two stolen machines, and now an error. Trump stays winning.

 

[Holmes]

Ossoff outperformed Clinton by 1.4% in Cobb and 1.6% in DeKalb. Assuming that he outperforms Clinton by the average, 1.5%, in Fulton will 47.9% be enough to stay at 50%+1?

No, he'll need about 49%. It'll be close but I think he'll just miss it.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

These voters had the ability to pick which Republican candidate would possibly be their next Representative, though? Seems like a big reason to show up to me!

It really isn't. A lot of people don't care who represents them as long as it's a D or R.

Hell, I never vote in local primaries and the first time I voted in a primary fori the presidential election was in 2008. And the only reason I took part this time is because I wanted to see the first female president. I stayed home the previous primaries and will most likely skip others going forward.

 

[BreezyLimbo]

did ossoff lose yet

I'm just waiting

 

[theWB27]

Nationally. I said Trump had a legitimate chance to win the election when everyone else but Silver had called it for Clinton. I only bring this up because everyone here fashions themselves a pundit when they have little to no interaction with Republicans. Those of you who are trying to call this election from outside the district face a similar problem. These people are my neighbors, my coworkers, my family. They are people I polled in the past, people who would tell you the non-PC things that they wouldn't dare admit to if called on it.

When push comes to shove, these are reliable R voters. This district wouldn't be in play without Trump tainting the Republican Party, obvious notes about Price not being pulled out of it aside. If I were advising Handel, I'd tell her to keep Trump at arms length and play up her role as a D.C. outsider because it will resonate. Tell people you will push Republican values. Be pro life, pro 2A. She should win if she does that.

I predicted about a 2.2x run for Ossoff over Handel, falling short of 50%. I said more like 45%, so I'd be happy if he beats that. But knowing what I know about this place, I see June as a hard task for Ossoff to win. Certainly not impossible, and way closer than previous attempts, but if anyone in here is putting too much faith in it I'd tell them to step back. It will certainly be good that RPACS have to dump a lot of money here, but so will Dems. One of those has a spending advantage and is playing from the short tees.

It would probably be easier for those who doubt what I am saying to ask me and others questions about this area than have to repeat ourselves.

After reading this i have to say i like our chances.

 

[Swass]

CNN is reporting 77% in and still at 50.3..

 

[Ac30]

CNN is reporting 77% in and still at 50.3..

Where is CNN reporting numbers?

 

[plagiarize]

did ossoff lose yet

I'm just waiting

He can't lose until June.

 

[jerry113]

If it's a runoff then I think that's still promising news for Democrats in 2018, if they can keep the momentum going. If a +20 R district causes Republicans to sweat tonight, then how will the elections in traditionally +5 R or +10 R look like going forward?

 

[StopMakingSense]

CNN is reporting 77% in and still at 50.3..

CNN's percentage in is based on assumed number of votes, not percentage of precincts reporting.

It's the same data.

 

[Allard]

CNN is reporting 77% in and still at 50.3..

77% really doesn't paint that great a picture, a whole county hasn't checked in short of the early votes. Everywhere else is already done.

 

[Lights and Waves]

Twiiter is saying "they found the card with the error."

 

[numble]

84% reporting, Ossoff at 48.6%

 

[wandering]

48.6

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

ovah?

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I'd say that's a wrap.

 

[daffy]

He got sonned?

 

[Allard]

Looks like it is almost officially over, runoff to worry about now. 72% of precincts reporting causes it to shift from 55% to 48.6% of the county which lets it fall in line with the other gains over the other counties over clinton.

 

[TheCochese]

In a 10-minute-long speech late Tuesday night, Karen Handel shared her vision for Georgia, offered an outstretched arm to her Republican competitors, attacked Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff and defended her “tough, scrappy and stubborn” attitude.

But she never mentioned Donald Trump.

“Tomorrow, we start the campaign anew,” she said. “Beating Ossoff and holding this seat is something that rises above any one person.”

Now why does this sound so familiar...

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Nationally. I said Trump had a legitimate chance to win the election when everyone else but Silver had called it for Clinton. I only bring this up because everyone here fashions themselves a pundit when they have little to no interaction with Republicans. Those of you who are trying to call this election from outside the district face a similar problem. These people are my neighbors, my coworkers, my family. They are people I polled in the past, people who would tell you the non-PC things that they wouldn't dare admit to if called on it.

When push comes to shove, these are reliable R voters. This district wouldn't be in play without Trump tainting the Republican Party, obvious notes about Price not being pulled out of it aside. If I were advising Handel, I'd tell her to keep Trump at arms length and play up her role as a D.C. outsider because it will resonate. Tell people you will push Republican values. Be pro life, pro 2A. She should win if she does that.

I predicted about a 2.2x run for Ossoff over Handel, falling short of 50%. I said more like 45%, so I'd be happy if he beats that. But knowing what I know about this place, I see June as a hard task for Ossoff to win. Certainly not impossible, and way closer than previous attempts, but if anyone in here is putting too much faith in it I'd tell them to step back. It will certainly be good that RPACS have to dump a lot of money here, but so will Dems. One of those has a spending advantage and is playing from the short tees.

It would probably be easier for those who doubt what I am saying to ask me and others questions about this area than have to repeat ourselves.

I'm sorry to say, but the fact that you live in this district holds very little weight! You can talk to as many Republicans as you want, it's all anecdotal. Feel free to address the data that exists, which is that Trump barely won this district by 1.5% (after Republicans normally won it by over 20%) and that Ossoff is going to win about 48% in a jungle primary, with a ~20 shift from the 2016 race that is right in line with other Congressional districts that have had special elections this year.

But, yes, you are correct that the only reason this district is in play is because of Trump's toxicity. Luckily, that is very relevant, because he is likely even more unpopular today than he was in November. He is President of the United States and the de facto leader of the Republican Party. Any downballot candidate will have a very hard time separating themselves from him. We can look at just about any special election - or even normal midterm elections - in recent years to see that presidential approval rating has a substantial impact on downballot performance.

(That you called the fact that Trump had a legitimate shot at winning is completely irrelevant, as well).

 

[Aaron Strife]

Again for the love of fucking god that's not how it works.

Jesus Christ

Posts like this really show what the Democrats are up against with the millennial voter. You think votes not received in a primary/open election have to be earned. Republicans show up and vote for whoever has an R beside their name.

Calm the fuck down, I'm well aware that Handel will sponge up the overwhelming majority of the other GOP primary candidates' votes. I'm just pointing out that Ossoff's base vote got him very close to 50% in an 18-candidate primary. There could absolutely be bigger GOP turnout in June than there was today, or lower Dem turnout, but if all else stayed the same then he doesn't need to swing that many votes. It's impossible to say before the final margin but he might just need votes from the other Democrats who ran.

Ossoff has a very tough road ahead of him, it involves getting all his first round votes to show up again for the second round and either winning some stubbornly conservative voters or hoping Handel generates lower turnout. 50/50 shot at best. But that's his path to victory, pointing that out shouldn't generate these fucking hyperbolic reactions, chill out.

Edit: 48.6%, welp, two more months.

 

[madstarr12]

Pretty much over. Oh well. Other Democrats are at around 0.9%. If he finishes at or above 49.1%........