Support NeoGAF

[TheCochese]

A plurality determines the winner.
I am not sure how you can avoid a person getting the majority, though, when you only have 2 choices.

Yeah, my bad, wrong word choice.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I don't understand this sentiment that winning the run-off would be harder

In both cases you need >50% of the vote. Sure, the Republicans will be more united, but on the other hand there are bound to be some people who don't like the Republican candidate who may stay home or can be convinced to vote for the Democrat

 

[j-wood]

To be honest it bothers me that these special elections are happening at this time.

I hope the people that came out to vote don't see the loss and think "well of course, my vote doesn't matter anyways" and we fall back into the disenfranchisement and lose some of the grass roots momentum going on.

 

[TheCochese]

I don't understand this sentiment that winning the run-off would be harder

In both cases you need >50% of the vote. Sure, the Republicans will be more united, but on the other hand there are bound to be some people who don't like the Republican candidate who may stay home or can be convinced to vote for the Democrat

There are some Republicans that don't like Handel. However the ceiling for the R candidate, whomever it was going to be, is far larger than the Democratic candidate. You're also going to have WSB and 106.7, whom have large listener bases in the Sixth, attempt to prop her up for the next two months.

Yesterday was his best chance. Get in there while the Republicans are seriously disorganized. We'll see the candidates who lost in the next couple of days ask their voters to keep Ossoff out.

 

[rambis]

. ... what? These guys are listening to AM750 and shit, they're not listening to black radio hosts unless it's Herman Cain, and you know damn sure he isn't telling people to vote for Ossoff.

First off who are "these people"? Secondly, I'm not talking about people that listen to political radio, as I literally know no one that does. Im talking about normal people who listen to normal radio stations and 107.9 in particular is one of the most popular for my age group...

What does that mean? Why do Ossoff signs in Gwinnett matter? Those people don't live in the district!

Im new to "North Atlanta" so I call all of this Gwinnet cause technically thats where my Doraville address is but Im 99% sure that it becomes Dekalb/Fulton as you ride down Buford Hwy which is where Im talking about. Either way that area seems very heavily dominated by hispanics and they have been in the streets with ossoff signs.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

There are some Republicans that don't like Handel. However the ceiling for the R candidate, whomever it was going to be, is far larger than the Democratic candidate.

But is the ceiling for the best R candidate higher than the ceiling for all R candidates combined? Ossoff needs >50% of the votes in either election, so that is what you should ask yourself to determine whether Ossoff has the best chance in the first or the second round.

You're also going to have WSB and 106.7, whom have large listener bases in the Sixth, attempt to prop her up for the next two months.

[...] Get in there while the Republicans are seriously disorganized. We'll see the candidates who lost in the next couple of days ask their voters to keep Ossoff out.

This is a relevant point, but at the same time, now that Democrats see that Ossoff has a fighting chance, they would presumably try harder to rally their base as well

 

[acklame]

Great result, that's a big swing from november for the same seat. Let's do this.

 

[TheCochese]

First off who are "these people"? Secondly, I'm not talking about people that listen to political radio, as I literally know no one that does. Im talking about normal people who listen to normal radio stations and 107.9 in particular is one of the most popular for my age group...



Im new to "North Atlanta" so I call all of this Gwinnet cause technically thats where my Doraville address is but Im 99% sure that it becomes Dekalb/Fulton as you ride down Buford Hwy which is where Im talking about. Either way that area seems very heavily dominated by hispanics and they have been in the streets with ossoff signs.

Yes, we know this. We also know that the number of residents and voters here pales in comparison to the residents and voters in North Fulton and Cobb.

But is the ceiling for the best R candidate higher than the ceiling for all R candidates combined? Ossoff needs >50% of the votes in either election, so that is what you should ask yourself to determine whether Ossoff has the best chance in the first or the second round.

Absolutely. I would argue that this probably isn't the best candidate they could put forth, but there is name recognition.

Price had incumbency advantage and was running against an amateur Democrat who had little (if any) support from the national party, financial or otherwise.

Karen Handel will not have either of those advantages.

Come again? No outside support for Ossoff?

The RNC money machine is also going to ignore the runoff?

Good luck.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Those that want to bring up how well (or the lack thereof) Trump did in this district ignore what impact that had downticket: there was little. Price typically won elections by around 25-30%, and he won in 2016 by 23%.

Price had incumbency advantage and was running against an amateur Democrat who had little (if any) support from the national party, financial or otherwise.

Karen Handel will not have either of those advantages.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Absolutely. I would argue that this probably isn't the best candidate they could put forth, but there is name recognition.

That doesn't make any mathematical sense!

 

[Dead Prince]

spicer briefing right now talking about Georgia and other stuff.

https://youtu.be/JXYR0Lqc0RY?t=45m56s

 

[rambis]

Yes, we know this. We also know that the number of residents and voters here pales in comparison to the residents and voters in North Fulton and Cobb.



Absolutely. I would argue that this probably isn't the best candidate they could put forth,

I'm missing your point? Ossoff got significant portions of those votes as well, obviously. I agree with 538 in that this is basically a 50-50 outlook at this point.

 

[Rentahamster]

People really dont like Trump and the results definitely show that Trump had an impact on the race but in this district you really are talking about the people who stand to make a substantial penny on any reduction in tax rates. Its a very wealthy district.

Interesting. Thanks for the input

Such a clown. I hope he damages her campaign just enough Ossoff wins.

Painting her as a Trump stooge seems like a good idea.

It's a good idea only until he starts getting popular again, so then you'd have to hope that doesn't happen until after the election. I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Trump basket though. Kinda risky. Focus on the issues that poll well.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Interesting. Thanks for the input





It's a good idea only until he starts getting popular again, so then you'd have to hope that doesn't happen until after the election. I wouldn't put all my eggs in the Trump basket though. Kinda risky. Focus on the issues that poll well.

When has Trump ever been popular? His favorabilty has literally never crossed 50%. He's a known quantity at this point.

 

[Ganhyun]

Im new to "North Atlanta" so I call all of this Gwinnet cause technically thats where my Doraville address is but Im 99% sure that it becomes Dekalb/Fulton as you ride down Buford Hwy which is where Im talking about. Either way that area seems very heavily dominated by hispanics and they have been in the streets with ossoff signs.

Weird because Doraville is part of Dekalb county.

 

[RPGCrazied]

When has Trump ever been popular? His favorabilty has literally never crossed 50%. He's a known quantity at this point.

Its 39% right now, lol

 

[whyamihere]

Ossoff needs to get 1.9% more of his original vote share. There are challenges there because while his floor is SUPER high, his ceiling could be below 50%.

Handel needs to get 30.2% more of her original vote share. Obviously, a lot of those people are primed to vote Republican, but what if she only gets 95% of those voters in a runoff?

538 describing the runoff as a tossup is true. Republicans are getting waaaaay too cocky about it and it screams This Cannot Happen Here. It could! It may not, but they seemed to have convinced themselves that this will be a slam dunk.

 

[Not]

Its 39% right now, lol

Is it going up or down?

 

[whyamihere]

Is it going up or down?

Well, we might get a government shutdown soon, so.

 

[rambis]

Weird because Doraville is part of Dekalb county.

Right, I think part of the reason for my confusion is because im right on a county line according to this 4square

https://foursquare.com/v/gwinnettdekalb-county-line/51504395e4b0fb2725a881d6


I live on winters chapel, the next street over from the point on this map. My address someone corresponds to Atlanta and Doraville.

 

[Ganhyun]

Right, I think part of the reason for my confusion is because im right on a county line according to this 4square

https://foursquare.com/v/gwinnettdekalb-county-line/51504395e4b0fb2725a881d6


I live on winters chapel, the next street over from the point on this map. My address someone corresponds to Atlanta and Doraville.

Well, the Dekalb side of that is Doraville and the Gwinnett side is Peachtree Corners (141)/Mechanicsville (Buford Hwy) in that area.

But, considering lots of cities in this area can use multiple cities in the address its not surprising it is confusing.

 

[NastyBook]

Demographics. The Sixth is WSB territory, not V103.

LMFAO Best way to describe it, honestly.

 

[Rentahamster]

When has Trump ever been popular? His favorabilty has literally never crossed 50%. He's a known quantity at this point.

Popular enough to get elected POTUS. His poll numbers are pretty shit now, but there is a non-zero chance of it improving in the future. It's best to not put all your eggs in that basket.

 

[pigeon]

Popular enough to get elected POTUS. His poll numbers are pretty shit now, but there is a non-zero chance of it improving in the future. It's best to not put all your eggs in that basket.

So then it would make sense to talk about people being tied to Trump until he suddenly becomes popular and then talk about something else.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Popular enough to get elected POTUS. His poll numbers are pretty shit now, but there is a non-zero chance of it improving in the future. It's best to not put all your eggs in that basket.

Just because he was elected doesn't mean he was ever popular. His favorability rating has consistently been below 50%, reaching around ~45% at most. That's been his ceiling for years. I don't see much potential for growth - at some point, we have to recognize that he is who he is.

There is certainly a nonzero chance of it improving in the future (there's a nonzero chance of millions of things happening!), but that chance is not very high. Right now, people don't like Trump and running as an anti-Trump candidate who will serve as a check on him is an effective strategy.

 

[commedieu]

Did the good outcome happen or no?

 

[whyamihere]

Did the good outcome happen or no?

It's literally in the thread title.

 

[commedieu]

It's literally in the thread title.

I see.

 

[Rentahamster]

So then it would make sense to talk about people being tied to Trump until he suddenly becomes popular and then talk about something else.

Right, which is why I said that.

Just because he was elected doesn't mean he was ever popular. His favorability rating has consistently been below 50%, reaching around ~45% at most. That's been his ceiling for years. I don't see much potential for growth - at some point, we have to recognize that he is who he is.

There is certainly a nonzero chance of it improving in the future (there's a nonzero chance of millions of things happening!), but that chance is not very high. Right now, people don't like Trump and running as an anti-Trump candidate who will serve as a check on him is an effective strategy.

It is. Until it's not. I'm hoping for a diversified portfolio, though. I'm confident Ossof won't make that mistake, unless he gets some bad advice.

 

[GusBus]

https://www.thenation.com/article/ossoff-in-the-runoff/

Jon Ossoff’s Campaign Is an Expensive Sideshow

The 30-year-old Democrat raised a ton of money and came close to 50 percent—but his near miss has few implications for the party nationwide.

By D.D. Guttenplan

Missed it by that much. If Jon Ossoff, the documentary filmmaker running for Tom Price’s open seat in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District, got a vote for every word written about him in the past few weeks, he could probably have been elected president—if only he were old enough to run. If the 30-year-old Democrat had just one vote for every $87 spent by his campaign—which raised $8.3 million for a seat where the last Democratic candidate spent only $346—he would now be on his way to Washington. Instead, Ossoff, who got 48.1 percent yesterday in the district’s “jungle primary”—pitting 18 candidates, regardless of party affiliation, into the same contest—now faces a runoff against former secretary of state Karen Handel on June 20.

“Electing a Democrat to replace Price would be a CRUSHING blow to Trump,” said the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which mostly sat out James Thompson’s race in Kansas a week earlier but poured money and troops into the Georgia contest. Daily Kos, whose members donated over $1 million to Ossoff’s campaign, proclaimed that “flipping this seat from red to blue would send shockwaves through Congress.” The New Yorker gushed over Ossoff’s “Kennedy-ish features and…Obama-like manner of speaking,” while New York magazine put the young Georgian on its cover. MSNBC dubbed Ossoff “an unlikely hero” who has become “the face of the resistance.”

From the moment he launched his long-shot bid with an invitation to “Make Trump Furious,” Ossoff tapped a gusher of discontent that saw him endorsed by everyone from Representative John Lewis (whom Ossoff interned with in high school) and Georgia House minority leader Stacey Abrams to celebrities Debra Messing and George Takei. Nancy Pelosi hosted a fund-raiser for him at DNC headquarters. Actor Samuel L. Jackson cut a radio ad which, though not mentioning Ossoff by name, urged listeners “to channel the great vengeance and furious anger we have for this administration into votes at the ballot box.” Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham, in Georgia filming a pilot for CW, tweeted an offer to personally drive Ossoff voters to the polls.

What’s not to like? Especially since Trump rose spectacularly to the bait, not only attacking Ossoff on Twitter but taping a fund-raising appeal to supporters warning “only you can stop the super liberal Democrats.” Though neither Handel nor any of the other 10 Republicans running in the primary spent anything like Ossoff, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC put $2.2 million into ads attacking him, including one featuring the shocking revelation that as a student Ossoff once dressed up as Han Solo—and even sang in a Georgetown a capella group!

Flipping the Sixth—a district that last “flipped” in 1978, when it sent a young professor named Newt Gingrich to Congress—would indeed represent a bloody nose for Republicans, who carried the seat by 23 points in November. Though not a catastrophe for Trump, who led Clinton here by less than two points—the gap between Trump’s performance and Price’s is the rationale for Ossoff’s candidacy—a loss here would also be an embarrassment for the president. And who could possibly object to that?

Of course Ossoff could still win the runoff—though Nate Silver’s claim “the outcome of a runoff is more like a true 50-50 proposition” shows that not even quants are immune from wishful thinking. Winning a two-person race in a historically Republican district, gerrymandered to stay that way by some of the cleverest minds in politics, against an opponent with both name recognition and statewide experience, would be a huge upset.

But even if Ossoff does pull one off in June, it will be hard to paint his victory as any kind of progressive triumph. The candidate himself seems earnest, and (to borrow a phrase) likable enough for someone who has clearly had his eye on a political career for quite a while. As a filmmaker, Ossoff’s targets have included “Nigeria’s Fake Doctors,” Big Tobacco (in Kenya), and corruption in Mozambique—all worthy, and all very far away. As a candidate, he’s been forthright in defense of Planned Parenthood—which might actually help against Handel, who resigned from the Susan G. Komen foundation after the group reversed a decision to cut funding to Planned Parenthood. And he’s nobody’s idea of a blue dog. But with campaign ads arguing “both parties in Washington waste too much of your money,” Ossoff is running as a pragmatic centrist, not a political revolutionary.

That doesn’t bother MoveOn.org, whose 15,000 Georgia members voted overwhelmingly to endorse him. “He’s talking in a way that connects with voters in his district,” Matt Blizek, the group’s electoral field director, told me. “This was a pretty pro-Clinton district,” he said. Ossoff, for better and worse, is definitely a candidate a Clinton supporter could love.

Just as an Ossoff victory would represent a repudiation of Trump, but not our broken politics, his failure to pull off an upset yesterday has little to tell us about the prospects for bolder candidates with more audacious agendas. A winning smile and the ability to avoid controversy will never be enough to turn this country around. Cutting off the school-to-prison pipeline, breaking the corporate stranglehold on our politics and Big Oil’s steady suffocation of our planet, ending the rationing of health care and educational opportunity by income and the police targeting of young men by race—all require a lot more than tinkering around the edges. There are Democrats, right now, who could lead those fights, like Rob Quist in Montana, Tom Perriello in Virginia, and Heath Mello in Omaha, struggling to raise a fraction of the funds behind Ossoff.

It may have been fun to watch, but despite all the money, and all the media attention, the battle for Georgia’s Sixth District, however entertaining, was never more than an expensive sideshow.

Thoughts y'all?

My sense is that it's The Nation being, well, The Nation. Bitter because he's too centrist and not a true disruptor or "audacious enough". Seems a little short sighted, imo.

 

[RPGCrazied]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/334640-poll-ossoff-up-7-on-handel-in-georgia-house-race

Democrat Jon Ossoff is 7 points ahead of Republican Karen Handel in the race for Georgia’s 6th District House seat, according to a SurveyUSA survey released Monday.

We can do this. Vote Georgia GAF!

 

[Lord Frieza]

7 points!? Last I heard he was going back and forth from being tied to leading by 1 point. He might actually win. Seems like a great number with the election just three days away

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

7 points!? Last I heard he was going back and forth from being tied to leading by 1 point. He might actually win. Seems like a great number with the election just three days away

Trump catering is helping.

If he actually pulls this off, it would be insane and the ramifications would be great.

Also, the run-off election is in a month.

 

[RPGCrazied]

7 points!? Last I heard he was going back and forth from being tied to leading by 1 point. He might actually win. Seems like a great number with the election just three days away

Don't forget, they don't like Trump there. Karen was talking warmly with him and talking to him on the phone after Ossoff got 48% of the vote.

She is a trumper.

 

[Ithil]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/334640-poll-ossoff-up-7-on-handel-in-georgia-house-race



We can do this. Vote Georgia GAF!

Is "SurveyUSA" credible?

 

[Iolo]

7 points!? Last I heard he was going back and forth from being tied to leading by 1 point. He might actually win. Seems like a great number with the election just three days away

You are thinking of the Montana election in 3 days.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Trump catering is helping.

If he actually pulls this off, it would be insane and the ramifications would be great.

Also, the run-off election is in a month.

I was about to say no, it was the 25th, but I was thinking of the Montana Special Election. Polls are basically tied or going back and forth there, too.

 

[Xe4]

7 points!? Last I heard he was going back and forth from being tied to leading by 1 point. He might actually win. Seems like a great number with the election just three days away

It's what I've been seeing too. Outliers exist, and while it's possible for him to win by 7, I think it'll be a bit closer than that. Still, good poll.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I donated. And I'm not even from San Fran. Fuck Handel, go Georgia blue!

 

[TheCochese]

That poll seems...high.

 

[victreeb3l]

I'm happy for Jon but good Lord are the emails from his team really freaking annoying. I donated a ton of money to them already so I feel ok with unsubscribing now. I can only handle so many MAJOR DEFEAT and AWFUL NEWS and WE LOST email subject lines in one day.

 

[zma1013]

I'm happy for Jon but good Lord are the emails from his team really freaking annoying. I donated a ton of money to them already so I feel ok with unsubscribing now. I can only handle so many MAJOR DEFEAT and AWFUL NEWS and WE LOST email subject lines in one day.

Are those emails actually from them? I got a bunch that looked very suspect and seemed unusual so I didn't even open them.

 

[RPGCrazied]

That poll seems...high.

6% undecided though. :/ They could screw the whole thing up.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I'm happy for Jon but good Lord are the emails from his team really freaking annoying. I donated a ton of money to them already so I feel ok with unsubscribing now. I can only handle so many MAJOR DEFEAT and AWFUL NEWS and WE LOST email subject lines in one day.

Rob Quist's emails are virtually identical.

The emails I get from both are insanely moronic. Constantly referring to news "JUST ANNOUNCED" that is little more than a two-week old quote. "Nobody saw this coming..." which is just a rally email about how we "stepped up" to donate. Bizarre self-defeating email titles like "it's over" or "we lost" before asking for more money.

Obviously I support both candidates and do donate, but whoever is in charge of these emails should be electrocuted.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I'm happy for Jon but good Lord are the emails from his team really freaking annoying. I donated a ton of money to them already so I feel ok with unsubscribing now. I can only handle so many MAJOR DEFEAT and AWFUL NEWS and WE LOST email subject lines in one day.

Rob Quist's emails are virtually identical.

The emails I get from both are insanely moronic. Constantly referring to news "JUST ANNOUNCED" that is little more than a two-week old quote. "Nobody saw this coming..." which is just a rally email about how we "stepped up" to donate. Bizarre self-defeating email titles like "it's over" or "we lost" before asking for more money.

Obviously I support both candidates and do donate, but whoever is in charge of these emails should be electrocuted.

Lol, glad I'm not the only one thinking that. I get they're trying to go for urgency and all, but it's overdone and way too often.

 

[Feep]

Just donated.

Good luck, Mr. Ossoff.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Lol, glad I'm not the only one thinking that. I get they're trying to go for urgency and all, but it's overdone and way too often.

Speaking of!

 

[RPGCrazied]

Really hope he wins. I want to start taking over these house seats so we can really stop Trump's agenda.

 

[Sean C]

That poll seems...high.

It probably is in the high side, but there's always a range of things, and the direction of the polling is good.

Though given how awful the last month has been for the GOP, maybe seven points isn't wholly unrealistic.

 

[Ogodei]

Rob Quist's emails are virtually identical.

The emails I get from both are insanely moronic. Constantly referring to news "JUST ANNOUNCED" that is little more than a two-week old quote. "Nobody saw this coming..." which is just a rally email about how we "stepped up" to donate. Bizarre self-defeating email titles like "it's over" or "we lost" before asking for more money.

Obviously I support both candidates and do donate, but whoever is in charge of these emails should be electrocuted.

You have to think of the politically active audience: old people. Clickbait email titles for people who fall for clickbait.