I hope it's a high turnout
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Georgia special election heads to runoff as Ossoff earns 48% of vote
- Thread starter RPGCrazied
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Lord Frieza
Member
Shit, looks like the GOP vote got a real surge. Fucking bad. I know it's not over, but that is confirming my feeling that this race is probably going to be another loss. I know it's still a good thing that it'll end up as close as it is statistically, but we really need a high-profile win right now I feel like.
RPGCrazied
Member
If we don't win this, our voters will get super depressed and not vote at all anymore. There are too many old white bigots in this country.
Lord Frieza
Member
Eh, I don't know about that, but I do expect enthusiasm is going to drop for a lot of people.
ClosingADoor
Member
What's up with that age graph? Are the people in this region all that old, or are young people (again) not voting?
RPGCrazied
Member
Lets all keep in mind though, this is a Republican stronghold district. R's usually win 25+. If he comes within 1 or 2 we can still call it a win.
So where are all of the folks from earlier (who don't live in or near this district) claiming there was some massive demographic shift in the district that was going to bring Ossoff to a victory?
It's definitely not over yet, and obviously I want him to win and think he still has a chance, but people need to get their expectations in check on this one. Optimism is great when met with a dash of reality, especially when it comes to primarily white Republican voting districts in the south.
It's definitely not over yet, and obviously I want him to win and think he still has a chance, but people need to get their expectations in check on this one. Optimism is great when met with a dash of reality, especially when it comes to primarily white Republican voting districts in the south.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
For real calm down people, him winning, especially after the run off, was always going to be a longshot.
Lord Frieza
Member
A mixture of both, I would guess. Election day isn't until 6/20 and early voting extends through that, though, so maybe some of them will come through.
benicillin
Banned
It's a deeply Republican district, if Ossof wins it's going to be because of newly registered voters and Republican crossovers, not just the Dem turnout.
Lord Frieza
Member
Sure, but his polling was pretty exceptional the last month or so from what I understand. But you're right, it was wrong to hinge real hope on this probably.
SoRuffShoNuff
Member
That district is pretty much all old rich white people. Not joking. You looking at a 400k minimum home to live in that district. A couple of us who actually live here were saying it will be an R win purely on demographics but for some reason people weren't trying to hear it.
Have hope, but have realistic hope ya know?
I drive through this district every day. It's a white, suburban republican district primarily. There aren't a lot of the young progressive voters living there that some folks think there are. They live in the districts outlying it.
He can still pull a win off of course. Encourage anyone you know who lives here to vote, please.
Autodidact
Banned
Ew. Those numbers look a bit scary, but I wouldn't descend into melancholy just yet.
In the general election, the early vote composition of D26 and R46 led to Trump's barely eking a win: he only beat Hillary by 1.5 points. So far, the early vote in this special election has been D35 and R43, moderately higher for Democrats and slightly lower for Republicans. Recent polls have Ossoff garnering about 15% of the Republican vote, and remember also that independents might favor him over Handel. And with this administration, we can't eliminate the possibility of a scandal that swings the election toward Ossoff.
Basically, be cautious but not despondent.
EDIT: I should also add that Georgia has open primaries. We don't know the party registration of the early voters, just the last party primary in which they voted. Some of those 10,000 or so "Republican" votes submitted could be Democrats who voted strategically in the Republican primary. Maybe not many, but in an election this close, every number counts.
In the general election, the early vote composition of D26 and R46 led to Trump's barely eking a win: he only beat Hillary by 1.5 points. So far, the early vote in this special election has been D35 and R43, moderately higher for Democrats and slightly lower for Republicans. Recent polls have Ossoff garnering about 15% of the Republican vote, and remember also that independents might favor him over Handel. And with this administration, we can't eliminate the possibility of a scandal that swings the election toward Ossoff.
Basically, be cautious but not despondent.
EDIT: I should also add that Georgia has open primaries. We don't know the party registration of the early voters, just the last party primary in which they voted. Some of those 10,000 or so "Republican" votes submitted could be Democrats who voted strategically in the Republican primary. Maybe not many, but in an election this close, every number counts.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't know anyone who lives there, but I've donated a decent chunk to the campaign in $5 and $10 donations, probably donated about $80 all together, with most of them being triple or quadrupled matched. All I can really do. We'll probably have to settle for another 'moral victory,' though. There's a special election in South Carolina coming up next month or August, right? Anyone know much about that location?
That's awesome, and you've done your part to help. It's definitely great that it's been this close of a race, and that does bode well going forward even if Ossoff doesn't quite make it.
Autodidact
Banned
No chance. We only have a chance in this election because (1) Georgia has been trending blue and has nearly entered swing state territory and (2) this district contains many affluent voters who rejected Trump's racism and went Hillary or third-party. South Carolina has neither the swing state status nor that kind of electorate.
Lord Frieza
Member
EatinOlives
Member
We actually can't, but it's signs of a possible surge in Democrat voters.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Is there a chance that SC could at least reflect even a slight shift away from Republicans? I remember fivethirtyeight at one time projecting Clinton to win SC, so relatively speaking SC is a little more susceptible than, say, WV.
Autodidact
Banned
Well, you made me check, and I might be wrong. The district has a PVI of R+9, well within victory territory during a blue wave. And this Republican won't have the incumbency advantage. The district has approximately 1/3 black voters, so I wonder if voter suppression might play a role. I've no idea about South Carolina's laws. I still think you'd run into the education and affluence problems I mentioned earlier, though, making this district a tougher swing.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Can't be a political thread without some diablosing.
(Ha, my auto correct has diablosing)
(Ha, my auto correct has diablosing)
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I feel like a lot of people are upset that these special elections are so tough to win, but that's the point. These elections are happening because of vacancies left by the Trump administration snatching people from these seats for jobs. They obviously picked hard R districts.
These elections aren't supposed to be close. If we're showing a double digit wave in them, 2018 looks really freaking good.
These elections aren't supposed to be close. If we're showing a double digit wave in them, 2018 looks really freaking good.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Let's not get carried away here.
So, someone decided to go around and put out vulgar adverts about Karen Handel in peoples mailboxes and such this weekend in the voting district. Anyone on GAF get one? I know some of our members are in the district.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/nor...trict-flyer-appears-in-neighborhood/529991450
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/nor...trict-flyer-appears-in-neighborhood/529991450
super-heated plasma
Member
Anyone know where to watch this debate outside of Georgia?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/georgia-special-election-candidates-debate-1st-time/story?id=46890405
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/georgia-special-election-candidates-debate-1st-time/story?id=46890405
Lord Frieza
Member
I think people realize that because both threads about the special elections have been filled with people saying it all the time lol. I think, more anything, people are looking for something they can point out and say, 'That's a win, thank God, we finally have a win.' For some people, flipping the NH and NY House States that had never had a Democrat where that, but there's been so much focus on these federal special elections, I still get it.
Seems proportionally more Democrats are voting, but damnnn at Republican early turnout.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Polling hasn't ever shown Ossof with a more than a couple point lead. This was never a slam dunk easy win, and even if he loses by 1-2%, it'll still be a dramatic change in the district.
Looks like more than one as well, judging from the other smaller blips at 100. Wow.
Autodidact
Banned
Be careful about reaching that conclusion. We don't know these voters' affiliations, only the last partisan primary in which they voted. That red bar could contain some Democrats who voted strategically in the last Republican primary. (Georgia has open primaries.)
maabus1999
Member
The ratio uptick for very young people is one encouraging part for Ossof based off that data. Will be close.
Wasn't it a jungle primary though? Ossoff lost by under 2% of the vote, they should have been voting for him then lol
Autodidact
Banned
That was for the special election. Jungle primaries aren't partisan because it's a free-for-all: all candidates from all parties appear on the same ballot.
Regular primaries, such as the ones last year, are partisan, and those are the sources from which these data have been obtained.
Correct me if I'm wrong (Australian here): The last primary there was for the November elections, so some of those "Republican" votes in the graphs above could be previous Republican voters who are now voting for the Democrat. I mean, changing Rep votes to Dem votes is one of the essentials to victory, right? Realistic expectations and all, of course.
RPGCrazied
Member
Well, she might have just sank her campaign. She said in a debate last night she doesn't believe people should be able to earn a living wage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPkY-dhuI7w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPkY-dhuI7w
Businesses can grow good paying jobs by not having to pay a livable wage. Ooo-kay. That's an inherent contradiction. I hope that sinks her campaign.
edit: I'm surprised at how sensible most of the youtube comments are.
OriginofHysteria
Banned
Yeah but they'll still vote for her since they think it's only minorities that are asking for a livable wage.
Also Montana elected a dude who bodyslammed a reporter so never doubt the stupidity of people.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Not really. We're already being mocked for celebrating our "moral victories" in Kansas and Montana. We need to start actually winning seats. Yes, I get that slimming down the margins is a good sign, but the GOP doesn't give a shit. A 1% win generates the same result as a 25% win.
nintendoman58
Member
The Montana thing was decided mainly by the early voting numbers and the body slam happened the day right before the election.
Flying Toaster
Member
A 1% win is a win yes. But it also shows that voters are getting sick of shit. Margins that close that much in a special election are going be close in regular elections as well.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Isn't this district mostly upper-middle class and white? Those kinds of voters whisper "I don't support a livable wage" to each other as foreplay.
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