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[whyamihere]

Crossposting from PoliGAF

Given what we've seen from the polling/early voting numbers/money, it seems this is less expectation setting and more genuine fear from the GOP that GA-6 is slipping away from them.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/16/georgia-special-election-gop-worries-239619

As grim confidential polling data circulates among GOP strategists, interviews with nearly two dozen Republican operatives and officials reveal that they are preparing for the possibility of an unnerving defeat that could spur lawmakers to distance themselves from Trump and his already-troubled legislative agenda, and potentially encourage a wave of retirements.

While no one is willing to publicly write off Handel’s chances just yet — Republicans stress that she remains competitive and point to robust GOP early voting figures — several private surveys taken over the last few weeks show Republican nominee Karen Handel trending downward, with one private party poll showing 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff opening up a more than five-point lead in the Republican-oriented, suburban Atlanta seat.

“If we’re losing upper middle class, suburban seats in the South to a 30-year-old progressive liberal, we would be foolish not to be deeply concerned about the possibility that would exist for a tidal wave election for Democrats in 2018,” said Chip Lake, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former Capitol Hill chief of staff.

Some fear the catalytic effect a GOP loss would have on the Democratic opposition, which has been raising money and recruiting candidates at a breakneck pace since Trump’s inauguration.

“If Ossoff wins, you’re going to see the floodgates open, with Democrats recruiting candidates in races from governor to county commission,” said Randy Evans, an influential Republican National Committeeman from Georgia.

Regardless of the outcome, Republicans appear to be taking a lesson from the contest: the president’s support is diminishing in some of the key districts that will determine the House’s balance of power -- places like Georgia’s 6th District, which is filled with the upper-income and highly-educated suburban voters and was never especially enamored of the president in the first place.

“It defines the kind of district where Trump struggles,” said Whit Ayres, a Handel pollster. “He was never particularly popular, and he hasn’t gotten more so since he was inaugurated.”

With the election still days away, some Republicans are already pointing fingers at Handel — a tried-and-true Washington tactic. In the White House, some officials have privately derided her as a frequent candidate for public office who isn’t the kind of fresh face necessary to win. Others are second-guessing her campaign team. During a Sunday appearance on “The Georgia Gang,” a public affairs TV show, longtime party hand and conservative commentator Phil Kent criticized the campaign’s decision to hold a fundraiser instead of a public rally with Pence.

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, a former NRCC chairman, said he was nervous about the Georgia race but felt confident the party had done all it could. The special election, he said, was a reflection of a challenging national environment the GOP was coming to terms with.

“No one here is whistling past the political graveyard and we understand this cycle will be intense, and that it will test our hold on the majority," he said. "We may or may not hold the majority, but it won't be for lack of effort."

 

[TheCochese]

I will never assume anything with any election ever again.

 

[Sulik2]

“If Ossoff wins, you’re going to see the floodgates open, with Democrats recruiting candidates in races from governor to county commission,” said Randy Evans, an influential Republican National Committeeman from Georgia.

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

 

[BoogieWoogie]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

Seriously. The fact that even if Ossoff loses it will be by inches should be all the evidence the Dems need to start going with fresh blood here.

 

[TheCochese]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

A: Everything outside of metro Atlanta is a conservative wasteland.

That's why.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Seriously. The fact that even if Ossoff loses it will be by inches should be all the evidence the Dems need to start going with fresh blood here.

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

You guys should probably check who is saying that quote lol

 

[Autodidact]

We should also note that the latest poll shows Ossoff just squeaking a win in Fulton county, which lies ideologically between DeKalb (Democratic-leaning) and Cobb (Republican-leaning). If he wins Fulton, even by a small margin, he'll likely dominate DeKalb. Even a moderate number of votes from Cobb could put him over the finish line.

 

[fredrancour]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

I think he's saying that the morale boost will give momentum to future elections that would normally not be competitive.

Though I guess the last few cycles weren't exactly a fifty state strategy so he might've felt comfy sleeping on dems til now

 

[kirblar]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

It's about a tidal wave expanding the # of winnable districts and seats by a lot.

50-state strategy still doesn't mean "fight every battle."

 

[Imperfected]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

It's the "plan", but you have to remember that individuals have agency. People thinking about running are looking to races like this and asking themselves, based on the results, whether they want to potentially waste a lot of time, sorrow, and money putting themselves in the pillory that is running for office.

If Ossoff wins, a lot of talented people who otherwise would (probably correctly) feel that they could better use their time doing other things will view attempts at public office (or membership on campaign teams) as actually worthwhile endeavors.

Like, think about it this way: should Elon Musk run for public office, or should he keep doing Elon Musk things? How does the calculus on that change if the odds are good that he wouldn't actually be elected if he did run, and would effectively see no benefit for the time and money spent?

 

[whyamihere]

I will never assume anything with any election ever again.

Who is assuming anything

 

[TheCochese]

Who is assuming anything

People who think the D+7 polling is accurate.

 

[Iksenpets]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

I think the party knows at this point that they need to throw money at every race, and that the base is going to demand that of them, but an Ossoff win is still important for convincing top-tier potential candidates that they can win and should try to run. All the Democratic recruiting efforts in the world don't not matter if the sort of people who could win these races consider it a suicide mission and don't want to waste their time, even with the party out there waving money around. Party support doesn't mean much when the only candidate you can recruit is the local band teacher or something.

 

[whyamihere]

People who think the D+7 polling is accurate.

Who thinks that

 

[Zyae]

People who think the D+7 polling is accurate.

its part of the story and is relevant

 

[BoogieWoogie]

People who think the D+7 polling is accurate.

No one is thinking that's true, what I am seeing is that not one poll has had Handel winning so far.

 

[whyamihere]

No one is thinking that's true, what I am seeing is that not one poll has had Handel winning so far.

Which is the key.

As the Politco article notes, Handel is probably doing okay in EV, but she's falling behind in polling (which we're seeing in the public polls too). Which leads to the nightmare scenario that Handel has just been cannibalizing her EDay voters while Ossoff is winning more on-traditional voters. Actually, we sort of see that in the charts that Nate Cohn has posted.

 

[Aaron Strife]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

Dem recruitment is already pretty high this cycle compared to even the wave elections in 2006 and 2008, but individual candidates will want to see good results in elections like Georgia's 6th before taking the plunge. You can't just force people to run.

 

[whyamihere]

This is another chart that paints an interesting picture for Ossoff.

Those gray bubbles are the independent voters who haven't voted in primaries, and are non-traditional voters. Those are the voters that Ossoff is banking will take him over the finish line because they're younger and more diverse.

 

[Ganhyun]

If Ossoff wins I want the news to do polls and ask if someone was going to vote Handel why they changed their mind.

 

[SirClinksAlot]

Never have I ever cared so much about an election in Georgia! Please win this Ossoff.

 

[Mango Positive]

I'm literally 5 miles away from being able to vote in this. There are definitely more Ossoff signs in Roswell.

 

[sphagnum]

I'm literally 5 miles away from being able to vote in this. There are definitely more Ossoff signs in Roswell.

Ossoff is an illegal alien confirmed.

 

[TheCochese]

No one is thinking that's true, what I am seeing is that not one poll has had Handel winning so far.

There have been people in this thread that have certainly gotten excited over it. I've said all along this projects to be a 52-48 race, and I'd be surprised if it even got to 55%.

 

[Khansolo1]

I'm just hoping that people don't decide to stay home seeing Ossoff up by 5 or 6%

 

[GulAtiCa]

People really need to out there and vote. My fiance and I went Monday morning to vote early. I really hope Ossoff wins.

 

[gcubed]

There have been people in this thread that have certainly gotten excited over it. I've said all along this projects to be a 52-48 race, and I'd be surprised if it even got to 55%.

If Ossoff got to 55 the GOP would be in full on meltdown mode

 

[TheCochese]

If Ossoff got to 55 the GOP would be in full on meltdown mode

Math was off, I meant 54. But yes.

 

[whyamihere]

I'm just hoping that people don't decide to stay home seeing Ossoff up by 5 or 6%

I don't think people really keep up with the minutia of polling numbers in special elections for this to actually matter.

 

[grumble]

A: Everything outside of metro Atlanta is a conservative wasteland.

That's why.

Democrats need to find out how to serve the needs of suburban and rural voters. The party has become too urban-focused and it shrinks the tent. Once that is addressed, the democrats will win big. Until it is, they will lose.

 

[TheCochese]

Democrats need to find out how to serve the needs of suburban and rural voters. The party has become too urban-focused and it shrinks the tent. Once that is addressed, the democrats will win big. Until it is, they will lose.

Unless the Democrats are going to come off the Pro Choice mast, it won't matter.

 

[ratcliffja]

Unless the Democrats are going to come off the Pro Choice mast, it won't matter.

The bigger issue is that places like Fox News cater to the uninformed while Republicans in government do their best to hinder education, so it's a difficult cycle to break. Racism, xenophobia, and misogyny are all prevalent among the uneducated (though there are elements of each with those who are socially sheltered like many in the tech industry). This is an issue that has existed as long as humanity in every part of the world. The major difference in America compared to some left-leaning countries is that there is a larger rural population and even then that population is disproportionately powerful thanks to gerrymandering and the electoral college.

 

[TheCochese]

The bigger issue is that places like Fox News cater to the uninformed while Republicans in government do their best to hinder education, so it's a difficult cycle to break. Racism, xenophobia, and misogyny are all prevalent among the uneducated (though there are elements of each with those who are socially sheltered like many in the tech industry). This is an issue that has existed as long as humanity in every part of the world. The major difference in America compared to some left-leaning countries is that there is a larger rural population and even then that population is disproportionately powerful thanks to gerrymandering and the electoral college.

You don't really understand the hold religion has on breaking that barrier. Anyone even remotely for abortion is a non-starter. The church I go to was criticizing Trump's words and actions before the election, but in the end the Supreme Court choice had them happily voting Republican. Educated voters on the right are no different than uneducated. Rich vs poor, etc.

You can blame Fox News, but in reality that excuse is only 20 years old and this has been an issue for far longer.

 

[Damaniel]

Democrats need to find out how to serve the needs of suburban and rural voters. The party has become too urban-focused and it shrinks the tent. Once that is addressed, the democrats will win big. Until it is, they will lose.

It doesn't really matter what Democrats offer, since their positions on God, guns and gays (not to mention abortion!) makes those suburban and rural voters hate the party on general principle. Fox News stoking the flames doesn't help either.

 

[ratcliffja]

You don't really understand the hold religion has on breaking that barrier. Anyone even remotely for abortion is a non-starter. The church I go to was criticizing Trump's words and actions before the election, but in the end the Supreme Court choice had them happily voting Republican. Educated voters on the right are no different than uneducated. Rich vs poor, etc.

You can blame Fox News, but in reality that excuse is only 20 years old and this has been an issue for far longer.

I'm a Christian and the majority of fellow Christians at churches that I've attended are left-leaning or moderate. If the DNC platform suddenly became pro-life and pro-gun, it still wouldn't change the fact that the uneducated would associate everything Democrats do with evil because that's what has been fed to them for so long. Manipulative churches do have a big impact, but they mostly prey on the uneducated.

 

[TestOfTide]

Unless the Democrats are going to come off the Pro Choice mast, it won't matter.

The pro-choice stuff is only a turn-off to rural voters, not suburban voters, because rural voters tend to be more socially conservative.

Suburban voters tend to be less socially conservative as rural conservatives, but hate leftist economics more.

 

[TheCochese]

I'm a Christian and the majority of fellow Christians at churches that I've attended are left-leaning or moderate. If the DNC platform suddenly became pro-life and pro-gun, it still wouldn't change the fact that the uneducated would associate everything Democrats do with evil because that's what has been fed to them for so long. Manipulative churches do have a big impact, but they mostly prey on the uneducated.

Where are you, because that doesn't hold water in the south.

The pro-choice stuff is only a turn-off to rural voters, not suburban voters, because rural voters tend to be more socially conservative.

That's not even close to being true in GA-6, at least.

 

[Link]

I'm a bit conflicted on how I want GA-06 to turn out. Ossoff loses by a couple of points and house Republicans breath a sigh of relief and likely stick with Trump going into 2018. Meanwhile, all the numbers from these special elections show Democrats getting WAY more voter share then they actually should and 2018 turns into a complete bloodbath for Dems who flip 40+ seats and maybe even steal a Senate seat or two.

On the other hand, Ossoff wins and House Republicans start shitting themselves and slowly but surely peel away from Trump. On one hand it probably stymies Trump from making any more major legislative progress over the next year but it also might make the Democratic wave in 2018 not be as brutal as the more moderate House Republicans are able to save more seats by jumping from the Trump ship then had they just stayed aboard it while it continued to sink.

Though the reaction from Trump if Ossoff wins and the ensuing Republican panic might be worth not having as big a wave election as I'd like in 2018 (Republicans flipped 64 house seats in 2010 after Obamacare)

You definitely want the second scenario. There's two main reasons I think so. First, it will energize Democrats even more than they already are going into the midterms. Showing that a win is possible is a huge sticking point for a lot of people. Second, Trump will personally want to punish any Republican that "betrays" him, and he'll be gunning for every one of their seats, whether that means simply badmouthing them, or even propping up a primary challenger. Even if they survive that, it's a lot more money and effort they'll have to spend before the general elections even start.

 

[Vanillalite]

The pro-choice stuff is only a turn-off to rural voters, not suburban voters, because rural voters tend to be more socially conservative.

You must not live around here. My man on the money with regards to religion in GA.

 

[RPGCrazied]

She even opposes gay marriage. But that is a Republican staple, so not surprising. I thought this area hated Trump. So don't vote for the Democrat, don't vote at all? Voting for her gives Trump more power, I hope they realize this.

 

[ratcliffja]

Where are you, because that doesn't hold water in the south.



That's not even close to being true in GA-6, at least.

I'm from Fayetteville, Arkansas but live in southern California now. I see a lot of anti-Trump rhetoric on my Facebook feed when I bother to check it. Arkansas' right-leaning is due to the severe lack of education in many parts of the state.

 

[Vanillalite]

I'm from Fayetteville, Arkansas but live in southern California now. I see a lot of anti-Trump rhetoric on my Facebook feed when I bother to check it. Arkansas' right-leaning is due to the severe lack of education in many parts of the state.

There's a lot of college educated people in Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah ect... in this state that are religious suburban Republicans.

Hell in this Special election district Kings Ridge is a super conservative religious school. It also costs like a gazillion dollars to send your kid there and it's all a bunch of college educated families.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Democrats need to find out how to serve the needs of suburban and rural voters. The party has become too urban-focused and it shrinks the tent. Once that is addressed, the democrats will win big. Until it is, they will lose.

Democrats offer plenty to serve suburban and rural voters. The voters simply don't vote based on those things.

 

[TestOfTide]

That's not even close to being true in GA-6, at least.

You must not live around here. My man on the money with regards to religion in GA.

I was more responding to your post in terms of nationally. Sure there may be exceptions. And maybe parts of GA-6 are an exception, but overall the trends have shown that Suburban voters have been getting pretty sick of the social conservatism, but they are also turned off by leftist economics.

I'd wager Democrats will need some pro-life candidates for RURAL areas, but not most suburban areas.

And honestly, I think the bigger problem is that Democrats have the wrong people talking about guns. Dems need to make sure to only to have actual gun-owning democrats talking about guns.


EDIT: Also, yes for now I'm sure the south still has it's huge racial voting lines that digs deep into not just rural areas but suburban areas as well, but I think now that we are seeing the Southern Strategy go national, it's time to stop writing off the Southern states. All we need is to convince the parts of southern states that are suburban and/or right next to the black belt that it is their own economic/business interest to vote for Democrats.

 

[whyamihere]

GA-6 poll

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

Our latest WSB-Landmark Communications poll of 800 likely voters has Ossoff leading Handel 49.7 percent to 48 percent.

 

[RPGCrazied]

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/kar...r-from-adopting-a-child/#.WURIgM0Jx5U.twitter

Yikes, this woman is a piece of shit.

Karen Handel tells mom of lesbian: ‘My faith calls me’ to stop your daughter from adopting a child

Karen Handel — the Republican candidate in next week’s special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional district — told a constituent with a lesbian daughter that her “faith calls her” to prevent the woman’s daughter from ever adopting a child.

The New Civil Rights Movement reported Friday that Handel was clearly caught off guard by the woman’s question, which took place during a constituent meet-and-greet at a sandwich shop in the district.

In video taken from the event, the unnamed constituent explained to Handel that she is a conservative, but has a lesbian daughter.

“What protections do I have for her having a family in the future, wanting to adopt a kid?” the woman asked.

“(N)ote how quick Handel is to cut the woman off when the conversation moves to civil rights and equality for LGBTQ people,” wrote NCRM’s David Badash.

“I have to be honest,” Handel told the woman while placing her hand on her heart. “My faith calls me to a different place on the issue.”

She went on to say that her faith calls on her to be “compassionate,” but that she is “not aware of anything in the law, right now, that I’m aware of, that’s going to be impactful, from a discriminatory standpoint, against your daughter.”

 

[Timedog]

This President can't spell. Its just unpresidented.

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[Lord Frieza]

I'm a Christian and the majority of fellow Christians at churches that I've attended are left-leaning or moderate. If the DNC platform suddenly became pro-life and pro-gun, it still wouldn't change the fact that the uneducated would associate everything Democrats do with evil because that's what has been fed to them for so long. Manipulative churches do have a big impact, but they mostly prey on the uneducated.

You are living in a fantasy world if you think the overall church is moderate or left leaning in the US, much less in the south. Very right leaning, intensely far right in a lot of instances.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

My question is why is this not already the plan for the Democrats?

Who says it's not? Look at Ossoff? Dude is a baby who almost got caught lying on his resume. I interpret that to mean, they will be recruiting ’more'.

A black Muslim with a red beard ran for Philly DA. The extra interest is there and these types of districts will generate more interest.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I'm a bit conflicted on how I want GA-06 to turn out. Ossoff loses by a couple of points and house Republicans breath a sigh of relief and likely stick with Trump going into 2018. Meanwhile, all the numbers from these special elections show Democrats getting WAY more voter share then they actually should and 2018 turns into a complete bloodbath for Dems who flip 40+ seats and maybe even steal a Senate seat or two.

On the other hand, Ossoff wins and House Republicans start shitting themselves and slowly but surely peel away from Trump. On one hand it probably stymies Trump from making any more major legislative progress over the next year but it also might make the Democratic wave in 2018 not be as brutal as the more moderate House Republicans are able to save more seats by jumping from the Trump ship then had they just stayed aboard it while it continued to sink.

Though the reaction from Trump if Ossoff wins and the ensuing Republican panic might be worth not having as big a wave election as I'd like in 2018 (Republicans flipped 64 house seats in 2010 after Obamacare)

At this point, there isn't a good ending for Republicans here. Them winning will be a less bad, but the margin is going to be so low it's not a good thing.