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[Neoweee]

What are you talking about? There was no pollster saying Ossoff was going to win. Pretty much everywhere agreed it could go either way with the current results being on the worse side of what was within predictions.

Yup. Polls are only accurate within like +/- 11% in special house elections, and Ossoff was leading in polls by no more than 2%, and probably less. This was a tossup at its core.

"Seat that was vacated under the assumption that it was a safe Republican seat remains Republican" isn't much of a headline. It would have been nice to see a win here, but it was never really expected.

 

[Chumley]

Losing by 5/6 points is terrible news. There's no positive way to spin this. There just isn't.

 

[Patapwn]

The opposing party of the president usually makes significant gains in midterms (barring a couple exceptions with obvious reasons why), combined with a great showing in the special elections of 2017 point to 2018 being a good year for the Democrats.

Even if we ignore the special election results (we shouldn't) it would be unprecedented for the GOP to not lose seats in 2018 based on nothing but historical voting trends.

My knee jerk disappointment of this election made me go a little too far with pessimism regarding 2020 but midterms are looking very good for the republicans as far as the house and senate are concerned. The deck is stacked against the dems as far as gains are concerned. Where do you propose they make a comeback?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Finally someone that gets it.

You understand Republicans loaded money into this race too right?

Or does that not fit in your little narrative?

 

[Ekai]

My takeaway is that spending a ton of money doesn't matter and can actually backfire. Same shit with Clinton. All that money to waste. So stop pouring fucking money into elections and actually respectfully talk to people on an individual level. That's the only way we're going to win anything.

There is no way of talking in a respectful manner to someone who wants to characterize me as a sexual deviant/predator for being who I am. Or for that matter wants to enforce their religion on everyone. Or actively is fine with spreading other kinds of bigotry or hate or letting the planet go to hell or etc. etc. etc. etc. the right-wing is my enemy and always will be.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Finally someone that gets it.

Oh, someone 'finally' gets it. Like that shit hasn't been said a million times. And it's just that, shit.

 

[DrForester]

Another fucking L for the democrats.


Yeah, we're getting 8 years of Trump

 

[~Kinggi~]

Glad to see that literally nothing matters.

Looking forward to my mother dying once she loses her healthcare.

Hey man its cool, we can totally trust our democracy with the Republissian party

 

[FStubbs]

Amazing that it was that close. Still so many incredibly low information voters out there that are supporting this current reprehensible party, but progress is progress. I don't know how Republicans in close districts can feel confidant about their chances when the traditionally red seats are now this close.

Because they keep pulling off the wins. I'd feel very confident as a Republican right now.

 

[TheCochese]

What you can take from tonight is you need to let the local people run their own elections. There is no national strategy, not one that works everywhere.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Losing by 5/6 points is terrible news. There's no positive way to spin this. There just isn't.

The margins are going to tighten before the votes are all in

Don't go jumping off a bridge

 

[PataHikari]

Amazing that it was that close. Still so many incredibly low information voters out there that are supporting this current reprehensible party, but progress is progress. I don't know how Republicans in close districts can feel confidant about their chances when the traditionally red seats are now this close.

What progress?

The progress would have been the voters telling Congress they don't like what's going on by voting the opposing party in.

Instead we got reinforcement.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Losing by 5/6 points is terrible news. There's no positive way to spin this. There just isn't.

Well it's closer to losing by 4 points.

 

[Tahnit]

Wow, the amount of hate towards Republicans here is impressive. If you voted for Handel you are automatically a bigot, redneck, ignorant or selfish.

You guys are making the same mistake Democrats made with Hillary ,by labeling the other half of the country. When was the last time you convinced somebody by calling them names?

PS: I did not even vote for Trump

republicans only care about themselves

 

[Tarkus]

This is such anti-intellectual garbage you should be ashamed. Do you tell your pilots on the next flight you're on to step aside and let you handle it? Do you cut your own damn heart open and perform surgery on it?

These people know more about statistics than jokers like you will ever bother to even TRY to learn and because it's not perfect EVERY SINGLE TIME you come in here with your tough talk? Just a joke.

Pilots are much more highly skilled and trained than these twits. Same with surgeons. Don't compare these people to Nate Silver and the polls that are reported across the country. There's obviously a fundamental problem here. In the end, the numbers aren't likely to be close at this point.

 

[Zolo]

My takeaway is that spending a ton of money doesn't matter and can actually backfire. Same shit with Clinton. All that money to waste. So stop pouring fucking money into elections and actually respectfully talk to people on an individual level. That's the only way we're going to win anything.

I actually agree with this in my current view. Not saying money doesn't matter, but there's clearly a limit where it seems to stop having as much of an effect.

 

[Merchandise]

I find these retorts like "OK, what do you think about her views on _____" to be kind of... useless? As if every single person who voted for her specifically chose her for ____ reason rather than _______ reason?

But I mean continue to antagonize if that's what has been decided is the best strategy.

 

[Coffinhal]

Lesson learned: stop making these idiot pollsters and pundits stars with their garbage numbers. Pres election now this. When will you learn?

Average of polls showed incertainty and a recent Handel trend

 

[uncredited male]

Dems gonna have to start winning soon

2020 is fairly soon.

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

Isn't that in David Scott's' district?

I think the GOP would actually have preferred to split that up into other white districts. It would help make sure there were no black reps in the state at all if they could

They lumped a portion of Cobb that contains a large portion of Blacks and Hispanics with South Fulton, North Fayette, and North Henry County, aka they took Cobb votes and combined them with a firmly democratic area to create a "Black" district and mitigate minority Cobb votes. They then took the portion of West Cobb with the college students and younger families and pushed them into a rural republican district with Cherokee and Bartow County, using those counties votes as a huge buffer to keep the more liberal Cobb votes in that area from having an impact.

So essentially you took the liberal portion of Cobb and pushed one portion into a district that would go D no matter what, another into a rural R district, and put that wealthy GA-6 portion with the wealthy areas of Fulton and Cobb.

 

[The Albatross]

The numbers weren't garbage for both this election and the presidential election. If she wins by 2% or so, that's not really off from polling at all.

WEll, they were more garbage in this election than the presidential election. The general election in November was pretty accurate in that Clinton did carry a 1-2% popular vote victory, it's just that state results were off and the 1-2% wasn't distributed amongst battleground states. Most polls in the closing week had here at +2 - +4 or so.

This special election though, polls are pretty off. Ossoff was favored in 5/6 polls since Thursday... by +2, +1, +3, +7, +3 respectively. Handel was favored in 1/6, +2. And it looks like she's going to win by close to 5% if things continue to trend out as they have been.

The truth is that polls are not predictive of an election, but as a group, we act like they are.

 

[CitizenCope]

Another L. Fuck!

 

[PataHikari]

Dems gonna have to start winning soon

This was the "soon."

 

[Epsilon-delta]

When was the last time anyone actually convinced someone by doing literally anything at all?

Very, very rarely does anyone actually ever change their mind about something. It doesn't really matter if you insult them or provide 45 page PDFs on why they're wrong. So why go with the harder option of the two?

It's also kind of ridiculous to say "don't be mean to these people!!" when those people literally don't care if you live or die as long as they get a 1% tax break or whatever.

So true.

Change comes from within (a selfish reason) and one also has to be open-minded in the first place.

Couple with the fact that most people do not like to be told they're wrong on <insert issue> means change rarely happens, if ever, and instead double down on being willfully ignorant.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Another fucking L for the democrats.


Yeah, we're getting 8 years of Trump

Pilots are much more highly skilled and trained than these twits. Same with surgeons. Don't compare these people to Nate Silver and the polls that are reported across the country. There's obviously a fundamental problem here. In the end, the numbers aren't likely to be close at this point.

There was a time when I believed this forum was more measured and intellectual than the average youtube comment...

 

[Regulus Tera]

Americans have the government they deserve.

 

[diablos991]

Dems gonna have to start winning soon

They'll get their chance at the turn of the decade unless they change course and align with the voters.

 

[LiK]

Welp, more garbage people placed in office.

They'll get their chance at the turn of the decade.

When the old GOP guys start dropping dead.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Americans have the government they deserve.

Don't start that shit

 

[tedrotheredro]

So sick of all this winning

 

[Mesousa]

God damn it.

 

[UraMallas]

Losing by 5/6 points is terrible news. There's no positive way to spin this. There just isn't.

I agree that if it stays 5/6 points, it is bad. On the really good side, SC totals ended at -3.2%. That is a huge swing. That lines up and actually exceeds the trend.

 

[Vena]

A lot of posters seemingly invested in this vote don't seem to know anything or a lot about it. Some of these reactions are bewildering.

But, hey, pessimism is easier than analytics.

 

[giga]

Wow, the amount of hate towards Republicans here is impressive. If you voted for Handel you are automatically a bigot, redneck, ignorant or selfish.

You guys are making the same mistake Democrats made with Hillary ,by labeling the other half of the country. When was the last time you convinced somebody by calling them names?

PS: I did not even vote for Trump

So you gonna respond to my question about her LGBT views or what? Do you not agree they're bigoted?

 

[TheCochese]

A lot of posters seemingly invested in this vote don't seem to know anything or a lot about it. Some of these reactions are bewildering.

But, hey, pessimism is easier than analytics.

They can go back to not caring about this district and pretending they know anything about it now.

 

[FStubbs]

What you can take from tonight is you need to let the local people run their own elections. There is no national strategy, not one that works everywhere.

The Southern Strategy seems to work well on a national scale for the GOP.

 

[Tarkus]

There was a time when I believed this forum was more measured and intellectual than the average youtube comment...

Thought you were a reasonable poster at one point too...

 

[Vanillalite]

Told you. Rich people in Alpharetta on up gonna vote that R no matter who it was.

Mofos in Milton were never voting for Ossoff.

 

[Neoweee]

Benchmark had an interesting note:

Democrats won every special election vacated for Obama's cabinet. They still got blown the fuck out in a wave in 2010.

 

[Quazar]

Well it's closer to losing by 4 points.

If I wanted anything g out of this election it is for you to be more positive. Go into this shit like you do expecting megatons at E3, to take it back a level. I think most level headed people expect the worst through many disappointments to avoid the downnesss of it all. Just keep some hope, no matter of your distristibution of faith in anything. Just be happy and hope for the best, we will win in due time. Yes we can!

 

[SpaceCadetKeon]

Christ, I am salty about this.

 

[Maxim726X]

The margins are going to tighten before the votes are all in

Don't go jumping off a bridge

All these moral victories!!

Are they better than real ones? It seems some actually believe this to be true.

 

[Kid Kamikaze10]

Yeah...

The bedwetting is wasteful. If you really want wins, get engaged now. Work with organizers now. There are PLENTY of issues worth fighting for.

Meanwhile, in terms of elections, there are plenty of things to learn from these races. Good local groundwork is key. Clear messaging and a clear idea of the stakes is key. And a candidate who can fire people up either through realness, or polite engagement person to person (matters the area) is key.

Today is still a good day. Great lessons learned and forward momentum for 2018.

But voter supression needs to be engaged and stopped.

 

[Ekai]

They'll get their chance at the turn of the decade unless they change course and align with the voters.

If you're saying the Democrats need to veer to the right, fuck that. Leaving America as soon as I can at that point. Not going to keep myself in this hellhole for much longer if the country continually veers towards this extremist right-wing end.

 

[Alligatorjandro]

My take away from this is dems probably won't win rich white districts.

 

[Zolo]

Benchmark had an interesting note:

Democrats won every special election vacated for Obama's cabinet. They still got blown the fuck out in a wave in 2010.

It's still expected that the House will be won in 2018 if races are this close that were expected to be safe.

 

[Operations]

No words. A candidate who went on live Tv saying she didn't support a "livable wage" won. Jesus

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

People forget Trump EASILY won the electoral college

 

[Sou Da]

If you're saying the Democrats need to veer to the right, fuck that. Leaving America as soon as I can at that point. Not going to keep myself in this hellhole for much longer if the country continually veers towards this extremist right-wing end.

Why does anyone here still reply to diablo? Or Springsteen for that matter.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Some takeaways

1) This district is not very pro-Trump, but it's not exactly easy to swing dem. (At least from what I've been reading)

2) This is a pretty red district and was always going to be hard to swing. Republicans can't shit out money for every house race like they have here in 2018.

3) Some of you guys need to smoke some weed or something

4) Dems are still getting major leverage and trending districts left, five months into Trump's presidency.

5) Get ready for like a year of midterm campaigning and for our lives to soon be 24/7 campaigns and constant coverage where nothing ever gets done and everyone is looking for the next reelection!