whyamihere
Banned
While I'd obviously like an Ossoff win, as long as it's close, it bodes well for us. This is not a make-or-break district for 2018, and people treating it as such should calm down.
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Georgia's 6th Congressional District Special Election |OT| Round 2: Fight!
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
While I'd obviously like an Ossoff win, as long as it's close, it bodes well for us. This is not a make-or-break district for 2018, and people treating it as such should calm down.
Yeah, but how does that help with all the See-I-Told-You-So Bernie Bros on my Twitter feed if that happens?
Will there be a NYT or Guardian vote tracker? Looking forward to torturing myself tonight.
I think most polling locations are at 7, with a few closing at 7:30.
I think most polling locations are at 7, with a few closing at 7:30.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, Mayor Mello and Congressman Quist have plenty to say about that.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yeah, pretty much. Hope is a drug, and like most drugs, you need to pick and chose when to take it
Thatonemoor
Member
Man who knew Freeza was such a downer.
I was being sarcastic. You've been negative on this for weeks. There's a difference between being negative and realistic.
plagiarize
Banned
We don't lose today.
We already forced the GOP to spend millions defending what should have been a slam dunk seat.
We've already won.
If Jon falls short (and I'm guessing he will be 3 or 4 percent) the GOP will ignore yet another clear warning sign and continue to pretend like they have a mandate.
Eitherway, I think they face a blood bath next year. Trump will call it a victory. His brainwashed supporters will trumpet it. They will act as if everything is on target and going perfectly. So what? They'll do that no matter what.
On the off chance Jon wins... then panic and chaos further undermines Trump's agenda. Oh it's a hugely appealing thought... so much so that it's hard not to put a lot of hope in it.
Even if they lose by one vote, the GOP will ignore every piece of context and pretend everything is okay. They'll only have to face it if they lose.
Which I don't think they will.
But hey. Today is a long shot.
It's far from our best shot.
We already forced the GOP to spend millions defending what should have been a slam dunk seat.
We've already won.
If Jon falls short (and I'm guessing he will be 3 or 4 percent) the GOP will ignore yet another clear warning sign and continue to pretend like they have a mandate.
Eitherway, I think they face a blood bath next year. Trump will call it a victory. His brainwashed supporters will trumpet it. They will act as if everything is on target and going perfectly. So what? They'll do that no matter what.
On the off chance Jon wins... then panic and chaos further undermines Trump's agenda. Oh it's a hugely appealing thought... so much so that it's hard not to put a lot of hope in it.
Even if they lose by one vote, the GOP will ignore every piece of context and pretend everything is okay. They'll only have to face it if they lose.
Which I don't think they will.
But hey. Today is a long shot.
It's far from our best shot.
Lord Frieza
Member
Who the fuck is "Freeza"?
Sometimes they are one and the same. A terrible Yin and Yang.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
This probably added 5% to Ossoff
whyamihere
Banned
NYT's model is up:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Of note:
Would be huge, but this will fluctuate.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Of note:
Would be huge, but this will fluctuate.
Thatonemoor
Member
It's how you spell your name.
TheCochese
Banned
WSB, if you can stand the lead male anchor.
plagiarize
Banned
We forced the GOP to spend millions and political capital on GA-6.
We already won. They don't have infinite amounts of money and political capital.
Hooligan69
Member
Sure they do, it's from the Russians. :\
That's nice and all, but I'm full up on moral victories, I'd prefer a real one.
Grizzle_Dat
Banned
After pouring 30 million into a special election anything short of a win is not good and I see no silver lining to it.
burn this down
Banned
I don't think Ossoff's gonna be able to reach that benchmark in Fulton. There's no way Alpharetta, Milton, and John's Creek collectively are that divided between him and Handel.
A Link to the Past
Banned
The silver lining is that the GOP had to fight to protect a safe district
Phrozenflame500
Member
And they're predicting a near dead tie based on pre-election polling. This is going to be a close one.
All dem vote in the first round was 48.5. It's very close
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
"Actually, it's lord Freeza"
Also, there is no i in it. And on a sidenote, I was really passing through when I happened upon this post. There's also a Freezasaurus, but that's just ridiculous.
I don't mean to be a debbie downer, but who cares about making the republicans spend more money if they still have control of everything still. Lets be real here. Losing less doesn't mean shit and I think its disingenuous to to try and paint a loss here after pouring so much money and infrastructure as anything but that, a huge L.
Lord Frieza
Member
"Actually, it's lord Freeza"
Also, there is no i in it. And on a sidenote, I was really passing through when I happened upon this post. There's also a Freezasaurus, but that's just ridiculous.
Filth and lies
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Who said anyone is doing exit polling?
There's National trends at work. This isn't a vacuum
TheCochese
Banned
If your vision limits you to today, sure.
Repblicans won this district by 20 points just eight months ago. This is a history heavily Republican district. Ossoff losing by a point or two means we don't win this seat, but it does mean Democrats are turning R+20 districts into single-digit margins. So what does this mean for the R districts next year whose margins are already in the single digits?
Ossoff, even if he wins, is going to have run again in a year anyway. Much as I want Ossoff to pull it out tonight, the big picture here is what the margin of win here on either side portends for a potential D wave election in the midterms.
This is still, at the end of the day, an R+8 district as it is now. It's trending blue, but it's still not friendly in the least.
The GOP do not have the money nor the resources to defend all the R+7 districts and below they control in 18. They're going to be spread incredibly thin.
RumbleHumble
Banned
So this, but...I really want R's to get an L.
These special elections are indicators for closer R vs. D elections to come in 2018. This is traditionally heavily Republican district. If it's at least a close race, then this bodes well for the Democrats in 2018 for the traditionally 50-50 district races.
burn this down
Banned
Hmmm, then maybe it is more doable than I thought. Still I think the Republican voter base in North Fulton is probably more energized now that they can unify behind one candidate and now that they know this is a tight race.
I'm hopeful, and I know Ossoff winning is definitely within the realm of possibility, but part of me wants to temper me expectations. I also (and I know this is anecdotal) saw a more Handel signs out than Ossoff signs when I was driving through Alpharetta and John's Creek a few weeks back while I was visiting my parents. So idk, we'll see, I could easily (and would love to) be wrong.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Count me in the "tired of moral victories" camp. It goes without saying that the party out of power tends to perform well in midterms so I really don't care about the signs that what will obviously happen is, indeed, happening. I want the actual seats. We don't need a close race here to tell us there will be a swing toward dems in 2018. No shit. A republican is in the oval office, so dems have more energy in midterms, and vice versa when a dem holds the presidency. I don't need to narrowly lose a race in Georgia to know that, so what the hell is to be gained from the "moral victory" beyond affirmation of the profoundly obvious?
Cesare Borgia
Banned
So you don't know what you're talking about.
This is a heavy R district. The fact that a democrat forced a runoff and is poised to either closely win or lose shows a drastic political shift. Both parties look at this the same way: if you start seeing signs that your safe districts aren't safe anymore (during special elections), it's a bad sign for midterms. So far it looks like we could be seeing a D+5 to D+7 shift nationwide next year, which is enough to win the House or come damn close.
Yea dems need to win one of these major special elections...but that's moreso for the national narrative. Regardless of what happens tonight, republican operates are nervous. Trump is bringing the party down, and if things continue to go as they've gone over the last 6 months...republicans could be looking at near 2006/2010 levels of losses.
Trickster
Member
Might not have been exit polls then. I just seem to remember someone saying something about 7pm being the time we would start getting some numbers. I thought it was 7pm now? (european here, might have the timezones mixed up)
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The more seats around the country behave a certain way, the more accurately you can predict what will happen in 2018.
Polls close at 7 but gonna be a slow trickle of results, gonna be a while.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Winning this doesn't take anything away from the GOP's power
Lord Frieza
Member
He has, the rain was a prophecy
burn this down
Banned
I agree with you, but the take away from this is that Democrats in 2018 could potentially do better than what is typical of the "out-of-power" power in midterms. Usually we see the "out-of-power" party do better in districts in which each party is within a few points of each other, not a stronghold district like GA-06.
But I agree, we need to see actual results, not just talk of how good things like for the future.
Yeah, it's 7:15 here in Georgia.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Even so, a special election that's received inordinate national attention for months isn't indicative of the average house race, nor is GA-6's behavior analogous to most congressional districts. Ossoff losing by 1% or winning by 1% tells us basically the exact same thing about the national shift toward dems. So why should I be happy about a close loss?
ratcliffja
Member
The main thing it would achieve is scaring Republicans in Congress, especially those in the House, and accelerating potential Trump investigations along with possibly reconsidering the AHCA.
Ossoff wining this means:
-Political Cable News shows will be watchable for the next week
-Might bolster recruiting nationwide and encourage GOP House Members to retire
-GOP Senators might put the brakes on the AHCA
Thats it! Those are pretty big things (mostly the later) but that's it. The results of this race have no other meaning nor tell us anything we don't already know.
-Political Cable News shows will be watchable for the next week
-Might bolster recruiting nationwide and encourage GOP House Members to retire
-GOP Senators might put the brakes on the AHCA
Thats it! Those are pretty big things (mostly the later) but that's it. The results of this race have no other meaning nor tell us anything we don't already know.
TheCochese
Banned
538 did a decent job breaking down what all the percentage point wins would mean.
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