We don't know everything from MS but assumption is not to expect much
We don't know everything about Sony but assumption is they'll have something up their sleeve
Not disagreeing with you, but if this is a commonly held view it isn't good for MS and it'll be a lot of work to win back mindshare
I'm basing this on how MS is structured. They have four key studios and their only purpose is to develop for key franchises. Halo, Gears, Forza and Minecraft. That's what they do and unless MS is really shaking up their structure that will stay the same.
Sony is just different in that regard. Look at this weirdo game Dreams. What the hell is that? Why are they working on that thing for so many years? Who's even going to buy that? MS isn't like that. Add in the fact that Xbox does not really exist in Japan, Sony could have some cool third party games from there that will never be on Xbox.
The biggest surprise MS showed last year was Xbox 360 backwards compability. And even if they show something completely new, there will always be doubt about whether it comes out or not. They did that to themselves. It will take some time to build up that trust again. As far as mindshare goes, that battle is over. People believing Scorpio will do gangbusters and balance out the race are deluded. Not even Microsoft believes that.