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Greece Agreement Reached

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Are either of those actually positives for Greece?

"Now is not the time for pampered greeks to see what kinds of entitlements they get to keep. Now is the time to do the sensible thing and finally adopt some small level of austerity. For too long have greeks lived at the cost of the EU taxpayer's money."

Gods, no. If this passes, they will be straight looted to such an extent that the last five years will look rosy by comparison.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Greece isn't sufficiently prepared to launch their own currency. They're at least 3 months away. That means Greece would have essentially no liquidity [or electronic only] for 3 months, which is a desperately difficult situation to be in. The other reason is just uncertainty. Nobody really knows what a Grexit would entail for sure. The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest fear is the fear of the unknown.

Which makes the only logical solution to this crisis a controlled Grexit with ECB support in the transition period.
 
Which makes the only logical solution to this crisis a controlled Grexit with ECB support in the transition period.

...if only a majority in the Eurogroup / European Council wasn't so firmly against any form of controlled Grexit because they fear that it could entice Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc. to follow suit when shit hits the fan in their countries.

This entire situation really is fucked up beyond all repair from every way you look at it :-/
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
German magazine 'Der Spiegel' has this handy feature of a press compass that shows the general opinions of German and European media on a particular issue. The selection of newspapers in this compass is rather small (and includes The Guardian as one non-German magazine/newspaper), but the grey dots, representing the opinion of online readers of the magazine, are interesting:

Za4I5E4.jpg


West: Conditions of the deal are appropriate
East: Conditions of the deal are too harsh

North: Europe is now divided
South: Europe has moved closer together

In another article, they mention a survey among 1000 people conducted by German public television channel ARD stating that 52% of Germans think that the conditions of the deal are appropriate, 22% think they are not appropriate, and 13% think that they go too far (whatever the difference between the last two questions is... let's say that 35% think that the deal is bad).

Furthermore, 52% think that giving more money to Greece is the right thing to do, 44% think that it is wrong. This result is surprising me somewhat.

Finally, 78% think that Greece won't really implement the reforms. Only 18% think that they will.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
This is baffling. If only 18% think that Greece will implement the reforms, why 52% thinks it's a good idea to give them more money?

I guess I will add this to my list of baffling German (from the basic Economics point of view) opinions read around here.
 
I spoke to an Italian friend today. He said that his (Italian) friends are all reading this as a sign that now the Euro is all about Germany's interests and that the desperately needed transfer union is further away than ever. He predicted a huge rally for euro-sceptics in future elections. Is this the death of the European project.

(Sure, this is all anecdotal, and the view of his friends may not reflect the general Italian population, as most of his friends are in their twenties and young people in general are more left-wing than the average person. On the other hand, he is an engineer like me, with quite a lot of engineer friends, and my impression is that engineers, on average, skew more to this rift than the average young person with a university degree)
 
This is baffling. If only 18% think that Greece will implement the reforms, why 52% thinks it's a good idea to give them more money?

I guess I will add this to my list of baffling German (from the basic Economics point of view) opinions read around here.
Solidarity. And I'm not kidding.
 

norinrad

Member
German magazine 'Der Spiegel' has this handy feature of a press compass that shows the general opinions of German and European media on a particular issue. The selection of newspapers in this compass is rather small (and includes The Guardian as one non-German magazine/newspaper), but the grey dots, representing the opinion of online readers of the magazine, are interesting:

Za4I5E4.jpg


West: Conditions of the deal are appropriate
East: Conditions of the deal are too harsh

North: Europe is now divided
South: Europe has moved closer together

In another article, they mention a survey among 1000 people made by German public television channel ARD stating that 52% of Germans think that the conditions of the deal are appropriate, 22% think they are not appropriate, and 13% think that they go too far (whatever the difference between the last two... Let's say that 35% think that the deal is bad).

Furthermore, 52% think that giving more money to Greece is the right thing to do, 44% think that it is wrong. This result is surprising me somewhat.

Finally, 78% think that Greece won't really implement the reforms. Only 18% think that they will.

Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?
 

gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
Check the article that I linked before, it's talking about the loss of sovereignty.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ng-treated-like-a-hostile-occupied-state.html

Thanks, I read it, but I'm wondering is this unprecedented?

The Irish bailout from the beginning carried with it 'Troika' oversight and approval of budgets + dictated asset sales and a tapping of the national reserve fund to contribute to its own bailout. 'Loss of economic sovereignty' was the watch phrase of the time - for a while there, our pre-budget media leaks came from Berlin and Frankfurt...

I'm not meaning to belittle what Greece is going through at all - the underlying severity of Greece's situation economically is quite different, and this would be bailout number 3 too - I'm just wondering if this is the big undemocratic 'first' for Europe that some are painting it as, or if the precedent was set some time ago here.

Indeed, I'm almost surprised if asset sales and fiscal vetos/oversight are only now coming onto the table in Greece?

I wonder if heightened anti-Europe/nationalist sentiment is fueling a bigger, more general outcry now.

Forgive my ignorance, by the way, if I'm wrong on any of the details are assumptions here.
 
German magazine 'Der Spiegel' has this handy feature of a press compass that shows the general opinions of German and European media on a particular issue. The selection of newspapers in this compass is rather small (and includes The Guardian as one non-German magazine/newspaper), but the grey dots, representing the opinion of online readers of the magazine, are interesting:

Za4I5E4.jpg


West: Conditions of the deal are appropriate
East: Conditions of the deal are too harsh

North: Europe is now divided
South: Europe has moved closer together.

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing! Do they share any data about how variables like country and political orientation affect where magazines fall on the compass?
 

snap0212

Member
This is baffling. If only 18% think that Greece will implement the reforms, why 52% thinks it's a good idea to give them more money?

I guess I will add this to my list of baffling German (from the basic Economics point of view) opinions read around here.
I had a buddy who had problems paying his bills. It was no question to me that helping him out financially was a good thing, but I didn't believe him when he told me that he had a job lined up and that he would pay me back ASAP (he didn't). I guess it's just two different things to many people.

I personally am of the same opinion here. Greece should get financial help as soon as possible, but I'm not confident in their politicians.
 

Theonik

Member
Solidarity. And I'm not kidding.
I am confused. Not that I disagree with the idea of solidarity but this is all conflicting.
Edit: These results contradict opinions from surveys a few weeks ago. Perhaps the deplorable handling of the situation has somehow gotten people to be sympathetic?

Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?
Government work is actually quite expensive. (usually involves relocation, since it operates from the capital but MPs shouldn't be forced to move there permanently for their 4 year run, so are basically expected to support 2 homes in many cases. UK MPs and MPs in other countries are paid quite a lot for this reason.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Solidarity. And I'm not kidding.

This deal is no charity.

I had a buddy who had problems paying his bills. It was no question to me that helping him out financially was a good thing, but I didn't believe him when he told me that he had a job lined up and that he would pay me back ASAP (he didn't). I guess it's just two different things to many people.

I personally am of the same opinion here. Greece should get financial help as soon as possible, but I'm not confident in their politicians.


Do you also ask your friend to give you his heater, oven and refrigerator before giving him money?
 
Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?

You don't want government officials (and politicians) to be paid too little. That would increase the risk of people taking bribes.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Most of these readers/people are very likely not familiar with the finer details of the deal. For them it likely boils down to "85 billion for harsh general spending cuts and privatizations"
 

Crosseyes

Banned
This is baffling. If only 18% think that Greece will implement the reforms, why 52% thinks it's a good idea to give them more money?

I guess I will add this to my list of baffling German (from the basic Economics point of view) opinions read around here.
Its probably not the bailout money that convinces the 52%. Its probably more the tens of billions of asset seizure, forced austerity, and severe economical and humanitarian hardship on Greece's people that German citizens see as 'deserved'.
 

mnz

Unconfirmed Member
Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?
This is not about cutbacks or austerity, this is about good implementation of reforms, quality of governance. People don't understand how Syriza, a party that was against a deal like that, even won the election on promises against it, can or wants to do it. They don't think they will own up to them. The back-and-forth the last weeks and months didn't help, it made them look like amateurs.

Its probably not the bailout money that convinces the 52%. Its probably more the tens of billions of asset seizure, forced austerity, and severe economical and humanitarian hardship on Greece's people that German citizens see as 'deserved'.
No.

Solidarity. And I'm not kidding.
More likely.
 

Joni

Member
Also nice to remember, here is the full list of countries and institutions that plead against austerity and for debt relief in the case of Greece and that have actually implemented it with this suggestion:
 

oti

Banned
Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?

German media has been portraying the Greeks as lazy and not trustworthy for years. Add to that the general prejudice of the unorganized Greek, the very truth about the inefficient Greek system and the Tsipras government and voilà.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

I think the issues is that is just unrealistic to expect people to diligently implement measures that they deeply oppose. I cannot see how this is supposed to work too. It is just human nature that you will not give your best, or even sabotage things, when you are doing something that you vigorously disagree with. I am not even talking about Syriza's top leadership, but more about the people leading and working within the ministries. Why would they get up every morning and give their best at work if they would rather rebel against what is happening?

Very interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing! Do they share any data about how variables like country and political orientation affect where magazines fall on the compass?

Nope, that compass is probably very unscientific. The reason why the omit other important magazines is probably because these magazine's have not shown a clear opinion in editorials, etc.
 

norinrad

Member
I think the issues is that is just unrealistic to expect people to diligently implement measures that they deeply oppose. I cannot see how this is supposed to work too. It is just human nature that you will not give your best, or even sabotage things, when you are doing something that you vigorously disagree with. I am not even talking about Syriza's top leadership, but more about the people leading and working within the ministries. Why would they get up every morning and give their best at work if they would rather rebel against what is happening?

I get what some of you have been saying from the beginning. We will be back here again in 3 years or even a year from now dealing with the same issues of implementation. When you have people sabotaging new policies they disagree with (some rightfully so) then end up not having anything to work with.
 

Calabi

Member
Indeed.



This is exactly how I've imagined all these talks to have gone down. An economist with an academic background questioning the rule book and trying to have a debate on principles vs. a group of lawyers, technocrats and accountants firmly insisting on sticking to the rules and contractual obligations. Situations like these are hopeless, they might as well have talked to each other in two different languages.

The sad thing is that Varoufakis' analysis of the entire mess probably was and still is correct, but he was absolutely in over his head as a politician and a diplomat.

That does paint Varoufakis as kind of clueless, like a guppy doing deals with sharks. If only I explain the situation to them they will see reason and understand. No it doesnt work like that these are not reasonable people, they are just after there flesh. But still he should have realised that after the first meeting and then tried to convince Tsipras to get the hell out of there before they are eaten.

It shows that Syriza really were a bad party, completely naive and in over their heads. Not used to the subterfuge the corrupt nature of these people that have been doing the job for years. The Troika are like an adult that beats up a kid(Syrizia). Completely outclassed and outgunned.
 

pigeon

Banned
Jeez what else does Greece need to do to be trusted again?

Perhaps all ministers should cut their salaries to 35k a year as a goodwill gesture to Greek citizens and the rest of Europe?

People will never trust Greece as long as their politicians are benefiting from convincing them not to trust Greece.

These threads should make that pretty clear. The only justification for this expropriation of Greek assets is to argue that the Greek government is untrustworthy; therefore, that's the argument that the EU has been continually putting forth, and that's the argument that European citizens are putting forth.

So why would that ever change? Colonialism implies contempt for the colonized. If Europe were to admit that Greeks could govern themselves, it would make their current and future plans impossible to carry out. So they'll never admit it.
 

Piecake

Member
This has probably been posted, but I think this quote from the Washington Post sums it up nicely

Syriza has incurred a lot of the costs of leaving the euro—like a financial crisis—at the same time that it’s kept the costs of staying in the euro.

Just pure stupidity all around.
 

Theonik

Member
This has probably been posted, but I think this quote from the Washington Post sums it up nicely

Just pure stupidity all around.
It's not entirely wrong. Greece has been in defacto default since 2010. Of course that isn't the whole story and there are other implications to a Grexit, both political, logistical, and diplomatic.
 

Syriel

Member
Does the plan still entail absolutely fucktarded moves like selling off the transmission networks for electricity and gas? You know, the meat-and-potatoes on every government's revenue sheet?

Because if so, I really hope for a parliamentary riot.

Is this really true across Europe? In the US there are some public utilities, but most are private. And in some places that means customers have a choice of who to purchase from because of competition.

If they sell off the energy management infrastructure so that it is ultimately controlled by someone else, could, like, losing power be a consequence of not paying their bills in 3 years? Would this just twist the knife further?

Utilities are still regulated (so they can't just jack up prices by a crazy amount) and they can't cut off necessary service (ex you can't get your heat cut in the middle of winter because you didn't pay the bill), but the idea of privately run utilities shouldn't be a scary thing.

Privately run also doesn't have to mean "owned by one person." It can be a company with stock bought and sold on a public exchange.

You do know that, while prices in Greece are about 25% lower than in Germany, the average Greek earns about 40% of what the average German does? It's what tends to occur in a monetary union: prices for goods (especially those produced by trans/multinational companies) move towards parity.

Comparing average salaries (are you basing that off GDP or some other metric) isn't the best metric as Germany has a high concentration of wealth at the high end and it is not equally spread amongst its population.

This 2013 study takes a look at both the median and the mean of household wealth and illustrates that point.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/are-germans-really-poorer-spaniards-italians-and-greeks

If you look at the median (midpoint, rather than the mean), Germans have much lower household wealth. If you look at the mean (traditional average), Germans have a much higher household wealth.

Averages can be distorted by a heavy weighting on one side of the spectrum, while a median is the exact halfway point. Exactly half of the population has a household wealth of the median or below.

With a population of ~80 million in Germany, that means ~40 million people are living in households with wealth at or below the median (~50k euro) as of 2013.

Greece has a population of ~11 million, which means ~6.5 million people are living in households with a wealth at or below the median (~100k euro) as of 2013.

Now the averages are different, with the mean household wealth in Germany being ~195k euro while the mean in Greece was ~148k euro as of 2013.

You'll note that the German mean is much higher than the median, while Greece's numbers are much closer together.

In short, based on this data set, there were likely more Germans (in absolute numbers) with a standard of living below that of the typical Greek in 2013. Germany has an elite that is incredibly better off, but that wealth is concentrated among those elite and not spread across the population at large.

Combine that, with the fact that the majority of Greeks own more than one home, and it is easy to see why popular sentiment can easily be swayed in Germany as far as bailout terms. You've got a large population which sees a smaller population that appears to be both better off (on a person to person view) and owns prime oceanfront property asking for help.

On a macro economics level, it makes sense for the EU countries to pull together and help each other, but the average person doesn't care about that and you're not going to get all of the theory into a soundbite.

Throw out basic numbers though and people grab onto that, even if the entire problem is much more complex.

TL;DR - "Rich Germans" is just as false as "Lazy Greeks."

This is exactly the kind of thing that the Eurozone prevents.


So in your previous post you admitted that they were yesmen no? Then if it is so, how is what I wrote incorrect.

You can, that's what they have been doing. But everyone is buying from these states. That's why the cost of living cannot be significantly lower within the Eurozone even if it is so.

That doesn't quite make sense as it is exactly what happens within the US. States which have a cheaper cost of living (and some states do have a significantly lower cost of living) sell to other states with a higher cost of living.

Businesses set themselves up based on what is most advantageous. This is why you see call centers in the Midwest, supporting all of the US. Lower average wages, lower average cost of living and therefore lower expense to run the call center. The state sees more jobs and gets the tax income.

It doesn't work that way. You can't sign bilateral treaties like that anymore, it's one large common market where Greek goods compete with those from other countries. I remember seeing oranges from freaking Zimbabwe last time I went to a local supermarket. Bloody Zimbabwe, where a wad of cash is best used as bog roll. How does one compete with that?

That is good for Greece though. Stores are getting you the cheapest oranges rather than you having to pay more.

Regardless, this entire episode has put egg on the face of the entire Eurozone. It doesn't matter which side of the rhetoric you happen to buy into, everyone walks away from this looking horrible. Reading the comments by leaders, MEPs, and average citizens, I couldn't help but notice there's a lot of "Northern Europe" vs. "Southern Europe" sentiment. It makes the "ever closer union" ideal look like a complete pipe dream and it feels like the various countries of Europe are stepping back into their old habits of forging alliances of similar ideologies.

Even if it were a USoE instead of the EU, you would still see rivalries. Hell, you see Northern CA fight Southern CA over water.

"Northern Europe" vs. "Southern Europe" shouldn't be enough to sink the idea of a closer union.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Chief theory is that he indeed wanted to lose it, to justify his capitulation.
...
You can nationalize the banks and send the fuckers that gambled the system and fucked up to jail, m8.

If he wanted to lose, then why did he campaign so hard for "No?" Horrible planning if that's the case.

And you can't just jail people if they haven't broken any laws.

In 2013 and 2014, about two thousand Greeks moved to Sweden (there are now 15k Greeks in Sweden, total), many more to other European countries. I'd be willing to bet that most of them are young and many of them educated, which means they'll most likely contribute to the Swedish economy and pay taxes. I imagine there's a similar (most likely bigger) movement to big countries like France and Germany.

She should think about that the next time she says "The tax payers in the other Euro countries are the ones who are paying."

Once people move to another country they are taxpayers of that new country. Doesn't mean said country is going to suddenly want to send tax money to others.

That's one of the downsides to the EU. You have freedom of movement and of jobs, but no way to balance out money across the whole of the EU.

Saw this on BBC.co.uk

_84237851_cf96fa13-2c30-40ef-84ba-9385d9a33ff2.jpg


Oh boy

Nice little phone there. Have one sitting on my desk. Camera is crap tho. :)

So the Greece people overwhelmingly voted no for the exact thing their government has been forced to agree to?

The EU is dangerously undemocratic.

How is the EU "dangerously undemocratic?"

If you want to base it on pure democracy (aka a vote of the people) then Greece should be doing whatever the majority of the people in the EU say.

Democracy is, quite literally, "Majority Rules."

Now, Greece's government is totally pissing in the face of its people, but that's on the Greek government, not the EU. If the leaders really do represent their people, then they should have turned down the offer and dealt with a planed Grexit.

Jacobin recently ran an article on life under austerity in greece, from the pov of a fast food worker.

The things that stick out most to me about that article are:

1) The basic life of a fast food worker is the same in the US as it is in Europe (aka it's a "job" not a career).
2) Most of his problems are due to his boss not following the law. Rather than just accepting that, he should report his boss and file a lawsuit so he is getting benefits as the law requires.
3) 10 years to get a degree doesn't sound like the most focused person on the planet.
4) Rent in his area is cheap.
5) Electrical engineers are in demand across Europe. If he did well in school, he should be able to land a job somewhere in Europe pretty easily.

This makes a lot more sense. If they are willing to break agreements, then they must face the consequences, if any.

I am honestly surprised they took the deal (so far) vs. stepping out. It'll be an interesting couple of days in the Greek legislature. And it turns out the referendum and all that jazz was nothing but a stall tactic with no bargaining power gained.

Much of what Greece did over the last six months was all about stall tactics.

In one where you have a fucking union with those other countries?

Jesus.

No wonder the Euro is a disaster...

It would have had an effect if the Greek government followed it, but it was only binding on the Greek government.

Again, if you want pure democracy, then every citizen of the EU has to have an equal voice. The voice of a Greek citizen shouldn't carry any more weight than a citizen of another EU nation.

Pure democracy is based on numbers which means that Greece is always going to run the risk of having its desires be overwhelmed by the desires of more populated countries.

You lost all respect for him because he took steps to abstain from voting on a package that went against what he believed? What?

If he stood by his principles, he should have just gone in and voted "No."
 
If he wanted to lose, then why did he campaign so hard for "No?" Horrible planning if that's the case.

And you can't just jail people if they haven't broken any laws.
If he didn't want to follow the result of a "no" vote, why did he campaign so hard for a no?
Like i said, /shrug

Are you sure you can't just jail people that haven't broken any laws? That doesn't seem quite right.

If he stood by his principles, he should have just gone in and voted "No."
At which point we'd have people shitting down his throat for trying to poison the well, and look at the kind of cunt the EU had to deal with for five months.

You expect him to have the political acumen of a flower pot. After his brief stint in politics, he doesn't.

Also did you seriously suggest that a minimum wage worker in a nation with 25%+ unemployment and 50%+ youth unemployment report his boss for cheating him out of overtime? And sue him? Come on mate, don't be daft.
 
fix'd



For the other countries
1. looting what they can
2. surviving their own electorate.

For greece:
1. stay in the Euro
2. bank runs

The downside..
Main greek city aren't so cheap to live in, so i wonder who'll live in athens Now..
Because greek median wage was already low, given the new measures i'd expect it to be even worse..

What a time we live in..
 

Rafy

Member
I spoke to an Italian friend today. He said that his (Italian) friends are all reading this as a sign that now the Euro is all about Germany's interests and that the desperately needed transfer union is further away than ever. He predicted a huge rally for euro-sceptics in future elections. Is this the death of the European project.

(Sure, this is all anecdotal, and the view of his friends may not reflect the general Italian population, as most of his friends are in their twenties and young people in general are more left-wing than the average person. On the other hand, he is an engineer like me, with quite a lot of engineer friends, and my impression is that engineers, on average, skew more to this rift than the average young person with a university degree)

I am half greek, half italian currently living in Milan and I am hearing similar things from the people around me too.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I am half greek, half italian currently living in Milan and I am hearing similar things from the people around me too.

It's innevitable, anyone who thinks a hard stance from the Troika would scare the rest of the south in submission doesn't understand how humans think. It is guaranteed to do the opposite in a democracy.

That's why what we are seeing now is basically the prologue, the first act of a three act story.

The first act is usually used for exposition, to establish the main characters, their relationships and the world they live in. Later in the first act, a dynamic, on-screen incident occurs that confronts the main character (the protagonist), whose attempts to deal with this incident lead to a second and more dramatic situation, known as the first turning point, which (a) signals the end of the first act, (b) ensures life will never be the same again for the protagonist and (c) raises a dramatic question that will be answered in the climax of the film. The dramatic question should be framed in terms of the protagonist's call to action, (Will X recover the diamond? Will Y get the girl? Will Z capture the killer?).[1] This is known as the inciting incident, or catalyst. As an example, the inciting incident in the 1972 film The Godfather is when Vito Corleone is shot, which occurs approximately 40 minutes into the film.

Corleone just got shot, or will be soon.

Act II when the south unites.
 

tokkun

Member
If Yanis would have been a politician, once he resigned as finmin he would have raised the flag of opposition to the deal proposed by Tsipras. But he's not a politician. His weapons are these articles and academic analysis.

Also following the time-honored academic tradition of asking for a 2-week extension because your paper is not ready by the publication deadline.

Whatever other strategic mistakes they made, I think the prime error was not making a concrete plan public early and waiting until after the deadline to organize that referendum. It's not fair to put all the blame on Tsipras considering how poor his bargaining position was at the time Varoufakis left.
 

Zukuu

Banned
I don't see how replacing one emergency package under restrictions with another emergency package under restrictions solves anything. Seriously, they should have just let them go, maybe not out of the EU, but away from Euro, to allow monetary policy. At least for the time being.
 

Rafy

Member
It's innevitable, anyone who thinks a hard stance from the Troika would scare the rest of the south in submission doesn't understand how humans think. It is guaranteed to do the opposite in a democracy.

That's why what we are seeing now is basically the prologue, the first act of a three act story.



Corleone just got shot, or will be soon.

Act II when the south unites.

I actually started hearing this argument made from people as far back as 2010, if not before that, it was actually regarded as a fact by most people here no matter what their political views were.

I am curious to see how things proceed in five years time, as you said this is only the beginning.
Will the EU take steps to become more like the U.S. (as in Federal Europe or USE) or will it stay the same and keep going downhill? This could be a great turning point for the EU.
 
Greece's wasn't 130% before the crisis. At the end of 2007 (last year before the crisis hit) it was at 107.4% [Eurostat]. That includes retrospective adjustments, too, so that's not a fudged figure. Portugal will almost certainly do a Greece when we hit the next recession.

and Ireland, looking at the same stat.
 

2MF

Member
Once people move to another country they are taxpayers of that new country. Doesn't mean said country is going to suddenly want to send tax money to others.

That's one of the downsides to the EU. You have freedom of movement and of jobs, but no way to balance out money across the whole of the EU.

Oh yes, I'm aware of that. I'm not even saying it should necessarily be any other way, just that politicians in other countries would do well to remember the advantages they get from the Greek crisis as well (in this case the influx of tens of thousands of educated and/or young workers that start paying taxes immediately in the richer countries, without requiring education and all the other government expenses that go into making an adult).
 

Snwaters

Member

To expand on this a bit:
The closest Greece has come to leaving the eurozone was at around 6am on Monday morning, just as dawn was breaking over Brussels.

Alexis Tsipras of Greece and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, decided after 14 hours of anguished talks that they had reached a dead end. With no room for compromise, neither saw any reason to carry on. Grexit was the only realistic option.

As the two leaders made for the door it was Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, who moved to prevent the fatigue and frustration from triggering a historic rupture for the eurozone.

“Sorry, but there is no way you are leaving this room,” the former Polish prime minister said.

The sticking point was the size and purpose of a privatisation fund to be backed by sequestered Greek assets. Ms Merkel wanted the €50bn of sales to be devoted to debt repayments; Mr Tsipras saw that as a national humiliation that would cede control of assets worth almost a third of Greek national income. His alternative was a smaller fund, whose proceeds would be reinvested in Greece.

A compromise was ultimately found after more than an hour discussing nearly a dozen different structures. It was to be the coda to a weekend that featured one of the most exhausting and fraught negotiations in a seemingly interminable crisis that has provided the EU’s sternest test.

After almost nine hours of fruitless discussions on Saturday, a majority of eurozone finance ministers had reached a stark conclusion: Grexit — the exit of Greece from the eurozone — may be the least worst option left.

Michel Sapin, the French finance minister, suggested they just “get it all out and tell one another the truth” to blow off steam. Many in the room seized the opportunity with relish.

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish finance minister, lashed out at the Greeks for being unable to reform for half a century, according to two participants. As recriminations flew, Euclid Tsakalotos, the Greek finance minister, was oddly subdued.

The wrangling culminated when Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister who has advocated a temporary Grexit, told off Mario Draghi, European Central Bank chairman. At one point, Mr Schäuble, feeling he was being patronised, fumed at the ECB head that he was “not an idiot”. The comment was one too many for eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who adjourned the meeting until the following morning.

“It was extremely hard, violent even,” said one participant.

Failing to reach a full accord on Saturday, the eurogroup handed the baton on Sunday to the bloc’s heads of state to begin their own an all-night session.

As the hours passed and Sunday turned to Monday, the prospect of a Grexit seemed to grow more probable, participants said, heightening divisions between sleep-deprived politicians and diplomats that have developed over six months of mostly frustrating negotiations.

A senior official in the room believed that Germany was now the country that appeared to be acting in bad faith — no longer the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras. At one point, Mr Tsipras had to endure a lecture from Miro Cerar, the Slovenian prime minister, to which Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi objected.

Eventually, François Hollande, the French president who has battled to keep Greece in the fold, ushered Ms Merkel and Mr Tsipras into Mr Tusk’s office to finalise a compromise on the privatisation fund. Although they were ultimately successful, the negotiations appeared to strain the Franco-German relationship long at the heart of the European project.

“There was in Germany a rather strong pressure for a Grexit. I refused that solution,” Mr Hollande told reporters after a deal was reached.

On the privatisation fund, in particular, Mr Hollande gave backing to Mr Tsipras. It was a question of “sovereignty,” the French leader said. “Nothing would have been worse than humiliating Greece, Greece didn't seek charity, but solidarity from the eurozone.”

Mr Hollande also insisted that the possibility of a temporary Greek exit from the eurozone — a controversial initiative Mr Schäuble had managed to insert into the eurogroup proposals — be removed from the final document.

In the end, some bleary-eyed diplomats emerged unsure who had prevailed in the marathon session. But they seemed agreed as to who had suffered most.

“They crucified Tsipras in there,” a senior eurozone official who had attended the summit remarked. “Crucified.”
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
I actually started hearing this argument made from people as far back as 2010, if not before that, it was actually regarded as a fact by most people here no matter what their political views were.

I am curious to see how things proceed in five years time, as you said this is only the beginning.
Will the EU take steps to become more like the U.S. (as in Federal Europe or USE) or will it stay the same and keep going downhill? This could be a great turning point for the EU.

Some countries are acting in their own self interest. Really, Germany has absolutely nothing to lose if you look into how long it can take for the Euro to disintegrate. Even if Greece completely imploded it wouldn't negatively affect Germany enough for them to want the situation fixed. Every time a crisis hits, they're in a position to make the most of it.

So it's all one way from here anyway, it's just a question of how long it will take and how much profit will be made on the drawn-out slow-motion collapse.
 

ICKE

Banned
"The European project was a mistake, it's nothing but trash. "


I bet some people feel like that after reading through the agreement, because the entire notion of passing all this garbage through a national parliament within few days is incomprehensible.

I have very little sympathy for Greek politicians in general but no country should accept vassal status to some supranational institution. So now the commission will go through legislative actions one by one and decide what is best for the local markets? Are you kidding me, some bureaucrat in Brussels will decide what the appropriate business hours are for specific shops etc? Pack it up, this is not what anyone signed for when they joined.

One should not blame Germany or North European countries for this deal, because our politicians have very little room for maneuvering. There is no political capital for bailouts or financial haircuts. But Syriza has been absolutely catastrophic for Greece. In six months they have managed to alienate most Member States, have almost flushed the local banking sector down the toilet and now have totally capitulated after holding a pointless referendum.
 

Piecake

Member
To expand on this a bit:

It always seemed more about moralism and punishment than economics

"The European project was a mistake, it's nothing but trash. "


I bet some people feel like that after reading through the agreement, because the entire notion of passing all this garbage through a national parliament within few days is incomprehensible.

I have very little sympathy for Greek politicians in general but no country should accept vassal status to some supranational institution. So now the commission will go through legislative actions one by one and decide what is best for the local markets? Are you kidding me, some bureaucrat in Brussels will decide what the appropriate business hours are for specific shops etc? Pack it up, this is not what anyone signed for when they joined.

One should not blame Germany or North European countries for this deal, because our politicians have very little room for maneuvering. There is no political capital for bailouts or financial haircuts. But Syriza has been absolutely catastrophic for Greece. In six months they have managed to alienate most Member States, have almost flushed the local banking sector down the toilet and now have totally capitulated after holding a pointless referendum.

So who's fault is it? Is it all Greece's? If so, that is rather self-serving.
 

pigeon

Banned
One should not blame Germany or North European countries for this deal, because our politicians have very little room for maneuvering. There is no political capital for bailouts or financial haircuts. But Syriza has been absolutely catastrophic for Greece. In six months they have managed to alienate most Member States, have almost flushed the local banking sector down the toilet and now have totally capitulated after holding a pointless referendum.

This is utter nonsense.

The point of a democratic system is to produce good governance according to the will of the people. The reason this isn't easy is because the people often want contradictory things -- like to have the euro/EU work, and also to not bail out Greece. (For an American example, people want to not raise the debt ceiling, but they also want the government to keep working.)

The job of a politician is to find a way to resolve these conflicts while still producing good governance.

Germany's politicians have a people that want to avoid bailing out Greece, but also want the euro to keep working (because, among other reasons, it makes Germany's economy function and keeps everybody employed). Their job was to choose a resolution to that conflict that would have the best outcome. In my view, they failed. They chose the short-term gain of not visibly bailing out Greece, but in doing so created both a long-term problem for Greece (which will only be worse off in three years) and a long-term problem for the euro (which is probably dead, since it's clear that belonging to the euro is just a ticket to getting pillaged by Germany).

That wasn't good governance! If they believed that a united Europe was the only way for European countries to succeed (which they should probably believe, since all the evidence points that way), they should have sucked it up and found a political way to bail out Greece. That is basically their entire job. Would their constituents be mad? In the short term, sure, but in the long term, they prefer a united Europe too.

Democracy isn't an excuse. It's a responsibility! Governing is more than just being a mouthpiece for the loudest demographics -- it requires, you know, doing the right thing even when people are opposed to it because they don't understand the consequences.
 

SkyOdin

Member
It depends on what you believe the Chinese or Russians would have asked in exchange for 80bn euros. My bet? This European deal is pretty much charity indeed.
Why bring up the Chinese or Russians? They were not the alternative. The alternative was the Grexit, a default, and Greece using control over its own currency to deal with the debt.
 
Why bring up the Chinese or Russians? They were not the alternative. The alternative was the Grexit, a default, and Greece using control over its own currency to deal with the debt.

But you would still have to ask for help and the closest friend you've got is Europe and it will always be that way. I know, I know, Greek pride and all that, it's just that the economic realities are harsher than idealistic concepts.

"The European project was a mistake, it's nothing but trash. "

Nope. It'd just the eurozone that needs improving. We still have common goals and affinities as Europeans, we just are not used to losing partial sovereignty for a greater goal. That's normal but people will get used to it in time.
 

Chumly

Member
Comparing average salaries (are you basing that off GDP or some other metric) isn't the best metric as Germany has a high concentration of wealth at the high end and it is not equally spread amongst its population.

This 2013 study takes a look at both the median and the mean of household wealth and illustrates that point.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/are-germans-really-poorer-spaniards-italians-and-greeks

If you look at the median (midpoint, rather than the mean), Germans have much lower household wealth. If you look at the mean (traditional average), Germans have a much higher household wealth.

Averages can be distorted by a heavy weighting on one side of the spectrum, while a median is the exact halfway point. Exactly half of the population has a household wealth of the median or below.

With a population of ~80 million in Germany, that means ~40 million people are living in households with wealth at or below the median (~50k euro) as of 2013.

Greece has a population of ~11 million, which means ~6.5 million people are living in households with a wealth at or below the median (~100k euro) as of 2013.

Now the averages are different, with the mean household wealth in Germany being ~195k euro while the mean in Greece was ~148k euro as of 2013.

You'll note that the German mean is much higher than the median, while Greece's numbers are much closer together.

In short, based on this data set, there were likely more Germans (in absolute numbers) with a standard of living below that of the typical Greek in 2013. Germany has an elite that is incredibly better off, but that wealth is concentrated among those elite and not spread across the population at large.

Combine that, with the fact that the majority of Greeks own more than one home, and it is easy to see why popular sentiment can easily be swayed in Germany as far as bailout terms. You've got a large population which sees a smaller population that appears to be both better off (on a person to person view) and owns prime oceanfront property asking for help.

On a macro economics level, it makes sense for the EU countries to pull together and help each other, but the average person doesn't care about that and you're not going to get all of the theory into a soundbite.

Throw out basic numbers though and people grab onto that, even if the entire problem is much more complex.

TL;DR - "Rich Germans" is just as false as "Lazy Greeks."


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Why are you talking about Median Wealth? Its entirely meaningless. You can review the study your link is talking about and the median Salary is significantly higher in Germany. Land wealth is going to be entirely worthless if people in greece have no income.

Germany has a better standard of living at every level of the spectrum.
 

Piecake

Member
But you would still have to ask for help and the closest friend you've got is Europe and it will always be that way. I know, I know, Greek pride and all that, it's just that the economic realities are harsher than idealistic concepts.



Nope. It'd just the eurozone that needs improving. We still have common goals and affinities as Europeans, we just are not used to losing partial sovereignty for a greater goal. That's normal but people will get used to it in time.

The problem is that the deal was economically stupid because it is just more austerity and austerity doesnt work. Greece isnt going to be able to pay back its loan so long as its forced to implement austerity and does not have control over its own monetary policy.

The only way this union will work is if you guys implement a fiscal union as well. Going by this loan agreement that is CLEARLY not happening any time soon.
 
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