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Greece Agreement Reached

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N

norinrad

Member
What i don't understand is why Tsipras keep saying he does not agree with any of the agreements and yet he signed for them? Yeah well i don't agree with the new supermarket prices but i have to eat anyway.

Why not give Putin a call?
 
S

sangreal

Member
norinrad said:
What i don't understand is why Tsipras keep saying he does not agree with any of the agreements and yet he signed for them? Yeah well i don't agree with the new supermarket prices but i have to eat anyway.

Why not give Putin a call?
Click to expand...

he already tried that
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
norinrad said:
What i don't understand is why Tsipras keep saying he does not agree with any of the agreements and yet he signed for them? Yeah well i don't agree with the new supermarket prices but i have to eat anyway.

Why not give Putin a call?
Click to expand...

because, despite being warned for months by his staff that when shit got real, shit would get REAL, he never authorized Varou to take the steps to ensure that they could fall back on an alternate currency, thus painting himself into a corner.

So now he has to take a shitty deal, or throw the country into a very shitty transition towards grexit.

He could always lie and pretend that it was a baller deal, but what's the point when everybody knows it aint?
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Funny, out of the four parliamentary groups in the German parliament (CDU/CSU: conservatives, SPD: social democrats, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen: greens, and Die Linke: the far-left) only Die Linke, which is Germany's Syzria, will unanimously vote No.

Almost all MPs of the greens will abstain from voting, so the government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD should have a clear Yes, even with some expected No voters among their own people.

sitzverteilung_18_xl.png
 
O

oti

Banned
ElTorro said:
Funny, out of the four parliamentary groups in the German parliament (CDU/CSU: conservatives, SPD: social democrats, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen: greens, and Die Linke: the far-left) only Die Linke, which is Germany's Syzria, will unanimously vote No.

Almost all MPs of the greens will abstain from voting, so the government coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD should have a clear Yes, even with some expected No voters among their own people.

sitzverteilung_18_xl.png
Click to expand...

Can't wait for the session tomorrow.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
The result of the vote is pretty safe though.

SPD will vote for yes with the exemption of 2-3 MPs. So that is 190 votes for yes and 2-3 for no from them.

The greens won't vote. 1-2 rouge MPs might vote for no.

Die Linke will vote against. So that is 64 votes for no.

The CDU/CSU will, according to worst-case projections, have a maximum of 70 people vote for no. That makes 241 votes for yes.

So the end result would be a clear 431:139 for yes.
 
O

oti

Banned
ElTorro said:
The result of the vote is pretty safe though.

SPD will vote for yes with the exemption of 2-3 MPs. So that is 190 votes for yes from them.

The greens won't vote.

Die Linke will vote against. So that is 64 votes for no.

The CDU/CSU will, according to worst-case projections, have a maximum of 70 people vote for no. That makes 241 votes for yes.

So the end result would be a clear 431:64 for yes.
Click to expand...

Of course it is. But seeing how the session for the second programme went, this should be really juicy.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans know nothing about economics?
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...

Y'mean the average german or the politicians? For the average, seems the same as about everybody else that still thinks micro = macro. For the politicians... weeell, it goes back to our discussion about them being true beliebers or corrupt.
 
O

oti

Banned
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...

My econ profs (BTW: one of them is Lucke who founded the AfD party) always say that the politicians don't care about what economists have to say.

If you're talking about the general public, well, I'd argue most didn't really know what was happening until shit hit the fan a few weeks ago. Judging by the BILD readers some want the Grexit but not because they know about the economical mechanics behind it but rather because "I don't trust those lazy Greeks".

What you also have to know about Germans is that they all hate inflation. It's in their DNA to hate inflation. The reasons for that should be obvious.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Coriolanus said:
Y'mean the average german or the politicians? For the average, seems the same as about everybody else that still thinks micro = macro. For the politicians... weeell, it goes back to our discussion about them being true beliebers or corrupt.
Click to expand...

I meant both. I know the average German part is bad and quite stupid on my part, but my god, these threads!

Anyway, I thought this piece was quite interesting, Germany's Moral Obligation to Greece. Ive heard quite a bit of Germany morally condemning Greece so it was interesting to see the sides flipped.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...

I am pretty sure that if the roles were reversed we would witness the same behavior on opposite sides. Humans tend to get pretty biased in favor of everything that supports their case. Especially when it is about money. Greek pensioners would be asking too why their government has the money to pay for five years of German economic struggle while their pensions barely adjust to inflation.
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
ElTorro said:
I am pretty sure that if the roles were reversed we would witness the same behavior on opposite sides. Humans tend to get pretty biased in favor of everything that supports their case. Especially when it is about money. Greek pensioners would be asking too why their government has the money to pay for five years of German economic struggle while their pensions barely adjust to inflation.
Click to expand...

The good news is that there are more years of payments to come, now.

I understand his point as it crossed my mind too, seeing again and again how figures are dismissed in favour of ideology/theories produced by politicians, but I tried to dismiss it as generalisation almost always is wrong.

Plus, I also find myself from time to time ignoring the facts while support an idea, but that happens in relation to games and Nintendo, not with the serious part of the life.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...

I think that's a general trend among most populaces.

I think my general takeaway has been that a scary amount of people support Austerity during difficult times.
 
P

Piecake

Member
ElTorro said:
I am pretty sure that if the roles were reversed we would witness the same behavior on opposite sides. Humans tend to get pretty biased in favor of everything that supports their case. Especially when it is about money. Greek pensioners would be asking too why their government has the money to pay for five years of German economic struggle while their pensions barely adjust to inflation.
Click to expand...

Oh, I agree. Cognitive biases are universal and powerful.

I actually stumbled across this article and it seems very relevant to Crab's recent debate

The eurozone crisis is often called a debt crisis. But, in fact, Europe as a whole did not have an external debt problem, but an internal one: German surpluses and mounting debt in Europe’s periphery were two sides of the same coin. Germans saved (a lot), and the single currency induced them — rather than save less or invest it at home — to lend it to their eurozone trading partners, which used the money to buy German goods. By 2007, Germany’s trade surplus had reached 195 billion euros, three-fifths of which came from inside the eurozone. Berlin might call this “thrift,” but it’s hard to argue that Germany’s excess savings, which its banks often struggled to put to use, were well invested. Instead, they gave Germans the illusion of prosperity, trading real work (reflected in GDP) for paper IOUs that might never be repaid.

Something needed to change, but what? Normally, each country would pursue its own monetary policy, relying on exchange rate adjustments to shift the locus of demand from those that could not afford it to those that could. Under a single currency, though, this could not happen. Instead, Europe’s debtors were forced to slash demand, through a combination of fiscal austerity and debt deleveraging. Their trade deficits with Germany fell dramatically — but by buying less, not selling more. All of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) saw their total trade with Germany shrink — in the case of Greece and Ireland, by more than one-third. So, to the extent Europe rebalanced, it did so at the cost of growth.

The eurozone was caught in a trap. Its countries needed to move in two separate directions, but under a single currency, they could only move in lock step. A Europe that lived within its means meant a Germany that continued to save more than it spent, rather than driving much-needed demand. Monetary easing — and a weaker euro — merely redirects Europe’s internal imbalances outward. Germany’s trade surplus with the United States exploded (up 49 percent from 2007 to 2013), and deficits with China and Japan collapsed (by negative 71 percent and negative 78 percent respectively). Meanwhile, Germany’s trade balance with Brazil and South Korea flipped from deficit to surplus.

Since 2012, virtually all of the eurozone’s net GDP growth, on an annual basis, has come from net exports — further testament to the weakness of domestic European demand as a driver of growth
Click to expand...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/20/its-time-to-kick-germany-out-of-the-eurozone/
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
We've sorta been over that when we were discussing in the previous thread why allathis mess should be handled by the ECB instead of the ESM, if memory serves. Pump cash, boost economy/insfrastructure, maybe suffer a bit of inflation. Alas, the opposing side then runs with "you're gambling with the taxpayer's money!", which is... *sigh*

Anyway, because austerity has been such a raging success, this happened.
euro-area-government-debt-to-gdp.png
Click to expand...

which, okay, if you dont hate debt, whatever. Quite ironic that the measures meant to decrease it have collectively spiked the heck outta it, tho.

Especially sad when you consider, y'know...
euro-area-gdp.png
Click to expand...

wonder how one could factor the effect of adding countries to it.
 
D

Dryk

Member
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...
That interview with Varoufakis from the other day had him straight up saying that he tried to talk economics and got shut down. This thing is purely political at this point, which means it's going to end awfully for everyone involved.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
EloKa said:
I gave up wondering if his posts do still fall into a kind of moderate / acceptable category for greek's views or if it is already right-wing extremists stuff
Click to expand...

I'm Canadian.

What am I supposed to say? You got a better word other than Troika? Troika includes France, France isn't pushing for Greece to get out. Finland's opinion is meaningless.

edit: The restaurant tax in Greece, at least you don't tip in Greece really, so it evens out. But Greeks who eat at the restaurants will cut their spendings there, which favors big food chains (at least on the mainland or big islands), and that's bad for the economy. Better for small restaurants to make money than big grocery stores.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Dryk said:
That interview with Varoufakis from the other day had him straight up saying that he tried to talk economics and got shut down. This thing is purely political at this point, which means it's going to end awfully for everyone involved.
Click to expand...

Got worse. Later jacobin had the interview with one of the heads of the Left inside syriza, and dude said that Tsakalotos tried pretty much exactly the same thing with the creditors and got exactly the same results.
 
A

A More Normal Bird

Unconfirmed Member
Piecake said:
Is it worrisome that I am developing a stereotype from these threads and this crisis that Germans no nothing about economics?
Click to expand...
The word economics comes a Greek compound word referring to the management of a household. It's a pretty obvious bias so it's no surprise that economists of all types are in the pocket of Big Greek and are attempting to justify Greece living beyond its means. Fortunately no amount of plagiarised blog posts can refute common sense.
 
L

LJ11

Member
Coriolanus said:
We've sorta been over that when we were discussing in the previous thread why allathis mess should be handled by the ECB instead of the ESM, if memory serves. Pump cash, boost economy/insfrastructure, maybe suffer a bit of inflation. Alas, the opposing side then runs with "you're gambling with the taxpayer's money!", which is... *sigh*
Click to expand...

Maybe we can start a new trend, "if you run fairly large and consistent current account surpluses, you're going to lose money via the capital/financial account, so it's best to go out and spend now, save less, before the dirty PIGS take your money!"

Spend it before someone else does!
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
LJ11 said:
Maybe we can start a new trend, "if you run fairly large and consistent current account surpluses, you're going to lose money via the capital/financial account, so it's best to go out and spend now, save less, before the dirty PIGS take your money!"

Spend it before someone else does!
Click to expand...

Then they could bounce back that PPP has largely remained the same for germans since 2010, which kinda explains why it is so easy for the average german to adopt the "they taking our tax monies" narrative. They also getting fucked. Thing is, it aint the greeks doing the fucking.

Dat greek ppp, tho

tbh im not quite sure im interpreting this correctly.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Dryk said:
That interview with Varoufakis from the other day had him straight up saying that he tried to talk economics and got shut down. This thing is purely political at this point, which means it's going to end awfully for everyone involved.
Click to expand...

It always has been political. For instance, on the issue of haircuts, people focus too much on the Greek debt crisis and ignore the political implications from Germany's point of view. Germany isn't primarily concerned with getting its money back from Greece. Germany can perfectly survive a Greek default.

What Germany wants to avoid at all costs is to officially turn the Eurozone into a system where everybody can in practice be held responsible for the debts of everybody else. This was a huge point in Germany when the Euro was introduced. Everybody promised that this would not happen. The contracts forbid it explicitly. So far, nobody has officially paid Greece's debts. In the books all loaned money still belongs to the creditors. A haircut of Greece's debts would officially set a precedent for disabling this paradigm. A precedent that in future crises other nations could point at to demand the same treatment. Naturally, Germany would be on the losing end of such deals.

That's why Schäuble is always stressing that it is legally impossible within the Eurozone to do a real haircut and why he so reluctant to talk about it. He knows that Greece cannot pay its debts back, but he wants to hide it behind extended runtimes and reduced interests. He wants to avoid setting that precedent, because he fears the larger implications down the road when new crises will arise. (And looking at the state of other countries, that a new crisis might arise suddenly and soon). That is a purely, and to be honest not entirely irrational, political goal that you can't argue away with economics.
 
M

Machspeed007

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I'm Canadian.

What am I supposed to say? You got a better word other than Troika? Troika includes France, France isn't pushing for Greece to get out. Finland's opinion is meaningless.

edit: The restaurant tax in Greece, at least you don't tip in Greece really, so it evens out. But Greeks who eat at the restaurants will cut their spendings there, which favors big food chains (at least on the mainland or big islands), and that's bad for the economy. Better for small restaurants to make money than big grocery stores.
Click to expand...

I don't know how many times have you been to Greece really but I've been there a few times over the past 10 years.
Let me tell you about restaurants in Greece.
In 50% of the restaurants I've eaten in, when it came to paying the meal, all we've received was something like this:
3382098089_0bf9fc7fdd.jpg
(in greek of course)

The further away from the town centre you are eating, the more chances you get of receiving a handwritten note. Granted, the situation has improved in the past years, but it's still highly probable you'll receive something like this.

Talking about VAT tax in this context is a little pointless. It could be very well be that the restaurants have a fixed monthly/yearly tax that takes into consideration an overall minimum VAT tax on the services sold, I don't know.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
ElTorro said:
The result of the vote is pretty safe though.

SPD will vote for yes with the exemption of 2-3 MPs. So that is 190 votes for yes and 2-3 for no from them.

The greens won't vote. 1-2 rouge MPs might vote for no.

Die Linke will vote against. So that is 64 votes for no.

The CDU/CSU will, according to worst-case projections, have a maximum of 70 people vote for no. That makes 241 votes for yes.

So the end result would be a clear 431:139 for yes.
Click to expand...

SZ is reporting that there are 'only' 51 nay sayers in the Union.
 
N

norinrad

Member
Chariot said:
Man that fucking smug face.
Click to expand...

Really? He's been there since 1980 and has wealth of experience. I know Crab called him a fool, which is ok as long as he's not walking in his shoes nor sitting at the negotiation table..

I sort of miss DSK though, i think his expertise on such matters would have probably help Greece, but hey he was more interested in tearing young women apart in hotel rooms and private orgies.
 
C

Chariot

Member
norinrad said:
Really? He's been there since 1980 and has wealth of experience. I know Crab called him a fool, which is ok as long as he's not walking in his shoes nor sitting at the negotiation table..

I sort of miss DSK though, i think his expertise on such matters would have probably help Greece, but hey he was more interested in tearing young women apart in hotel rooms and private orgies.
Click to expand...
I have not much love for Schäuble. This issue is not the only one where he brough shame upon Germany and himself. We made this man minister of finances despite his known major involvement in corruption. I know that he accomplished the Schwarze Null, so credit where credit is due. I just don't like him as a person.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
norinrad said:
Really? He's been there since 1980 and has wealth of experience. I know Crab called him a fool, which is ok as long as he's not walking in his shoes nor sitting at the negotiation table..

I sort of miss DSK though, i think his expertise on such matters would have probably help Greece, but hey he was more interested in tearing young women apart in hotel rooms and private orgies.
Click to expand...
Unfortunate choice of words there... ;)
 
C

CyclopsRock

Member
norinrad said:
I sort of miss DSK though, i think his expertise on such matters would have probably help Greece, but hey he was more interested in tearing young women apart in hotel rooms and private orgies.
Click to expand...

Between hours of fiscal negotiation and a private orgy, I know which I'd choose.
 
O

oti

Banned
Merkel also throwing Schäuble under the bus.

Merkel summary:
- Greece government is a bunch of idiots
- We don't trust'em, that's why we'll be controlling EVERYTHING
- Austerity (she didn't use that word) works for Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and it worked for Greece
- Grexit not possible because Greece and other don't want it
- GIVE IT UP FOR MA MAN SCHÄUBLE!
- Pros outweigh the cons
- Alternative would've been chaos
- Many doubt Greece can do this but we have to try
- We're doing this for the people of Greece and we're doing this for the people of Germany
 
O

oti

Banned
German Syriza (Die Linke, Gysi)

- German Syriza attacking Schäuble and telling Merkel/Gabriel they're just Schäuble's pets
- Gabriel you're worthless (paraphrasing)
- Told'cha Euro would be a mistake without a fiscal union
- The South is paying for our economic strength
- Germany needs the Euro more than Greece
- Schäuble, you wanted to make Greece the next Eastern Germany
- Schäuble you're hurting Germany
- Gysi quoting anti-Gernany quotes with the word "tank", Bundestag not pleased at all

- We're for a new programme but not under these conditions
- Many BILD readers think we've paid a lot of money for Greece. The truth is, we haven't paid a single Euro. You're dishonest in that regard Schäuble
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
oti xero said:
Merkel also throwing Schäuble under the bus.

Merkel summary:
- Greece government is a bunch of idiots
- We don't trust'em, that's why we'll be controlling EVERYTHING
- Austerity (she didn't use that word) works for Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and it worked for Greece
- Grexit not possible because Greece and other don't want it
- GIVE IT UP FOR MA MAN SCHÄUBLE!
- Pros outweigh the cons
- Alternative would've been chaos
- Many doubt Greece can do this but we have to try
- We're doing this for the people of Greece and we're doing this for the people of Germany
Click to expand...
Merkel pls. Also lol @austerity working for Portugal and Spain. Just the other day the Portuguese government was debating this very thing.

oti xero said:
- German Syriza attacking Schäuble and telling Merkel/Gabriel they're just Schäuble's pets
- Gabriel you're worthless (paraphrasing)
Click to expand...
LOL
 
C

Chariot

Member
oti xero said:
- German Syriza attacking Schäuble and telling Merkel/Gabriel they're just Schäuble's pets
- Gabriel you're worthless (paraphrasing)
- Told'cha Euro would be a mistake without a fiscal union
- The South is paying for our economic strength
- Germany needs the Euro more than Greece
Click to expand...
You can think about the LINKE what you want, but Gregor Gysi is the GOAT:
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
oti xero said:
Merkel also throwing Schäuble under the bus.

Merkel summary:
- Greece government is a bunch of idiots
- We don't trust'em, that's why we'll be controlling EVERYTHING
- Austerity (she didn't use that word) works for Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and it worked for Greece
- Grexit not possible because Greece and other don't want it
- GIVE IT UP FOR MA MAN SCHÄUBLE!
- Pros outweigh the cons
- Alternative would've been chaos
- Many doubt Greece can do this but we have to try
- We're doing this for the people of Greece and we're doing this for the people of Germany
Click to expand...

Thanks for play the by play commentary. It's interesting.

oti xero said:
- The South is paying for our economic strength
- Germany needs the Euro more than Greece
Click to expand...

Oh, no, he didn't. There must be at least 2-3 German laws that he broke with this.
 
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