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Greece has no money to pay the IMF, default imminent

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East Lake

Member
Based of the information from the Spiegel (which are pro-Greece and completly against kicking them out of the Euro etc.), yes.

I get the point that getting tax money from the average Greek is more likely than from the rich ones who would just leave the country or already moved their money somewhere else.
So a tax on a thing that's easier to collect on from a government in dire need of revenue means that Syriza is a party of the elites and that the creditors look out for the poor. So we have a complete and total inversion of the perceived values of the parties involved out of a single proposal.

In other news here's radical economist Larry Summers on the culture of Greece.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-25/larry-summers-says-greece-over-time-can-prosper
 

2MF

Member
http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/1/e005619.full.pdf+html

"The impact of economic austerity and prosperity events on suicide in Greece"

"Results: In 30 years, the highest months of suicide in Greece occurred in 2012. The passage of new austerity measures in June 2011 marked the beginning of significant, abrupt and sustained increases in total suicides (+35.7%, p<0.001) and male suicides (+18.5%, p<0.01)."
 
So a tax on a thing that's easier to collect on from a government in dire need of revenue means that Syriza is a party of the elites and that the creditors look out for the poor. So we have a complete and total inversion of the perceived values of the parties involved out of a single proposal.

In other news here's radical economist Larry Summers on the culture of Greece.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-25/larry-summers-says-greece-over-time-can-prosper

Yes, not doing anything to get taxes from the ship companies, hotel industry etc. (see the recent negotiations) is pretty much what I would call a pro-Elite party.
 

East Lake

Member
Yes, not doing anything to get taxes from the ship companies, hotel industry etc. (see the recent negotiations) is pretty much what I would call a pro-Elite party.
They should hire you as a consultant.

“I don’t know if the new government knows that the majority [of the Athens-based companies] are involved in dry-bulk shipping, which has been in the worst-ever state over the last four to five years. These guys don’t even have money to pay their debts,” said Harry Vafias, who runs Stealth Gas Ltd., a New York-listed operator of 63 liquid-petroleum-gas carriers.

Dry-bulk shipping, which moves grains, coal, iron ore and other commodities, has been marred by overcapacity of around 20% above demand over the past decade, analysts estimate. The excess tonnage in the water suppresses freight rates, the main source of income for shipping companies.

Mr. Vafias said he is willing to make a larger contribution to the new government, “because I love my country and because I’ve been lucky enough to operate ships that make money.”

“But this view is not reflected by the vast majority of my peers, who have seen the value of their ships fall by 30% to 40% over the past few years,” Mr. Vafias continued. “So if the government gets nasty and doesn’t work towards a compromise they will pack up and go, and the state will lose the tax it currently gets, the ships will be reflagged and jobs will be lost.”

Five other owners contacted by The Wall Street Journal said they all had a “Plan B” that involves relocating to shipping centers such as London, Monaco, Singapore or Dubai. They said they want to wait for the new government to spell out its shipping policy before going public with their plans.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-ship-owners-fear-syriza-tax-plan-1422363968
 

LJ11

Member
You never know how things will go, but seems like both sides told each other to fuck off and prep for exit.
 
It's just been confirmed.

Yannis Koutsomitis &#8207;@YanniKouts 1m1 minute ago
Tsipras: I suggested a referendum for July to the Greek Cabinet. The question will about accepting or not the creditors proposal.
 

East Lake

Member
Is that supposed to help you're argument? In the next paragraph an expert on shipping policy says it's the norm for shipping centers. It's kind of weird you hammer on Syriza a few pages back for the deposit flight and at the same time want them to hit their most successful industries in a hard economic time with large tax hikes. I'm sure it'll be Syriza's fault again when the elites withdraw all their wealth!
 
Where the fuck has our socialist spirit gone europe? Everything i've seen lately is servitude toward banks and corps. Plz prove me wrong.

Socialism is one of those things that are easy to convince people of when they're doing well but less so when their outlook is poor. It's idealistic in principle, I think, even if it is watered down in practice. Maybe that's why failed socialist states have a habit of hiding to the people that they're not doing so well.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
It seems to me that at this point Tsipras is more concerned with saving his face than anything else. Both alternatives he has – accepting reforms or abandoning the Euro – would ultimately expose his pre-election promises and political rhetoric as unrealistic hot air.

It will be very interesting to see whether the IMF will grant to defer the deadline, and what decision the greek people will make. A Grexit might not look as bad compared to yet another delay of the problem for five months in which, again, nothing meaningful changes.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Great plan by him. He will campaigning against it but if the Greek people vote for it ( as they want to stay in Euro-zone) he won't be to blame for it as it will have been the will of the people.

Exactly. He is playing a political game here.

A general problem in this entire crisis is that nobody, including the EU, wants to step up and make the hard decision. Nobody wants to be responsible for a Grexit or debt releases. And because of that nothing will change.
 

Xando

Member
So he introduced a referendum for a deal that is supposed to be negotiate today, wants temporary extension which he won't get since parlaments have to agree.

Wouldn't wonder me if ECB hits the break and forces capital controls by limiting ELA next week.

Basically a Grexit/No Grexit referendum.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
It seems to me that at this point Tsipras is more concerned with saving his face than anything else. Both alternatives he has &#8211; accepting reforms or abandoning the Euro &#8211; would ultimately expose his pre-election promises and political rhetoric as unrealistic hot air.

Actually, the opposite is far more likely to be true: that the Troika wants to make Syriza lose support, so they are always making proposals that would go against Syriza's mandate. They want to create division and it hasn't worked. Syriza has no choice but to respond by making rallies, and now a referendum. Ultimately, this will force Greece out.

The goal of the "lenders" is to send a clear message that electing Syriza was a mistake and that such parties shouldn't be seen as viable. It's not going to work, it will do the opposite. The IMF is pretty much screwed because they have to stay present in this situation and the future ones, but their very presence, especially after Greece exits, will cause anyone who sides with them to be opposed massively in countries that will find themselves in a similar situation.

Anyone who thinks the Greek people will vote in favor of the proposal are... to be polite; wrong. It's a rallying point against it to show he has the support and that their attempts to undermine the party isn't working, not Tsipras looking for an excuse to accept it.
 

Morfeo

The Chuck Norris of Peace
It seems to me that at this point Tsipras is more concerned with saving his face than anything else. Both alternatives he has &#8211; accepting reforms or abandoning the Euro &#8211; would ultimately expose his pre-election promises and political rhetoric as unrealistic hot air.

It will be very interesting to see whether the IMF will grant to defer the deadline, and what decision the greek people will make. A Grexit might not look as bad compared to yet another delay of the problem for five months in which, again, nothing meaningful changes.

I heavily disagree. Tsipiras only have bad choices here, he will either be responsible for more austerity, or responsible for the grexit. So he does the best thing - he let the people of Greece, the same people that elected him, make the decision while advocating himself a grexit. He was never elected on the grexit though, so considering it is such a huge step, it is only right that this is anchored with the people - something the troika would have never considered or cared about.

Actually, the opposite is far more likely to be true: that the Troika wants to make Syriza lose support, so they are always making proposals that would go against Syriza's mandate. They want to create division and it hasn't worked. Syriza has no choice but to respond by making rallies, and now a referendum. Ultimately, this will force Greece out.

The goal of the "lenders" is to send a clear message that electing Syriza was a mistake and that such parties shouldn't be seen as viable. It's not going to work, it will do the opposite. The IMF is pretty much screwed because they have to stay present in this situation and the future ones, but their very presence, especially after Greece exits, will cause anyone who sides with them to be opposed massively in countries that will find themselves in a similar situation.

Anyone who thinks the Greek people will vote in favor of the proposal are... to be polite; wrong. It's a rallying point against it to show he has the support and that their attempts to undermine the party isn't working, not Tsipras looking for an excuse to accept it.

I think this is the right analysis. The Troika have from the start wanted to sabotage Syriza to avoid a similar situation in Spain, Italy etc so they heavily need them to fail and show that only neoliberalism and thus no real democracy is tolerated withing the EU. Tsipras and his peers was probably naive in thinking that their oppositions was more democratic-minded than what they really are - and are now taking the correct consequences and doing the complete opposite of what Merkel, Juncker, Draghi and Lagarde wanted - letting the people decide.

This will be hard for the greeks and it will not be nice - but it is better to leave the euro now than to be stuck in a cycle of austerity, gdp-loss and more austerity - and that is not to speak of the human consequences that only keeps getting worse.

Go Tsipras, and go Greece. Every democratic-minded person in Europa is with you now!
 

Morfeo

The Chuck Norris of Peace
Fuck.I wanted to vote against the austerity measures but I will be away from my home town.

This is the moment of truth for the whole of Europe. It decides if alternative politics still is possible or not. If you are going to vote once, this is the time to do it - I would do whatever it takes to be able to say no to the austerity and yes to democracy and human dignity!
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Actually, the opposite is far more likely to be true: that the Troika wants to make Syriza lose support, so they are always making proposals that would go against Syriza's mandate.

That sounds like little more than paranoid conspiracy talk to me.

First of all, the creditors have no reason to care about Syriza's mandate. Their job is to care about their responsibilities and rules, not about wild election promises in individual countries. It is also their responsibility to treat countries equally and fairly.

Second of all, they have already made big concessions. Conversely, Syriza has wasted the past months with rhetoric and got absolutely nothing done in terms of meaningful reforms. The way they conducted the negotiations over the last week &#8211; like submitting proposals just a few hours before official meetings &#8211; shows that they are either incompetent amateurs or reckless and disrespectful gamblers. No greek should have any trust in their capability to fix Greece's corrupt and ineffective state. What profound reform have they implemented or designed since the election? None at all.

Everybody has done a poor job in this crisis, but the main responsibility for Greece's situation lies on the shoulders of incompetent and corrupt Greek politicians.

This will be hard for the greeks and it will not be nice - but it is better to leave the euro now than to be stuck in a cycle of austerity, gdp-loss and more austerity - and that is not to speak of the human consequences that only keeps getting worse.

A Grexit would at least stop the bailout of banks and force everybody to accept reality and write off loans that Greece will never be able to pay back in full. Instead of continuously pouring more money into that bank system, the money could be used to help the people of Greece directly and finance humanitarian help to support them in the initial crisis.

Go Tsipras, and go Greece. Every democratic-minded person in Europa is with you now!

It has to be noted that the other European governments are democratically elected too, and their mandates are very often not compatible with that of Syriza.
 

PJV3

Member
This whole saga has turned me off the EU, They're more interested in teaching the Greeks a lesson than sorting out the problem humanely.

This should have been sorted out ages ago, get the country growing and then tackle issues about tax etc, I hope Greece tells them to shove it.
 

LJ11

Member
Without capital controls the ECB will continue to finance the bank run, unless they pull ELA and bust the banks. Pretty nuts. Wild weekend. Greeks already rushing to the ATM. Lines at atms in the middle of the night.
 

LJ11

Member
Will there even be a referendum if the EU/ECB pulls the last life line? Is this what Tsipras and Co are betting on? "They didn't even let us vote."
 

chadskin

Member
Second of all, they have already made big concessions. Conversely, Syriza has wasted the past months with rhetoric and got absolutely nothing done in terms of meaningful reforms. The way they conducted the negotiations over the last week &#8211; like submitting proposals just a few hours before official meetings &#8211; shows that they are either incompetent amateurs or reckless and disrespectful gamblers. No greek should have any trust in their capability to fix Greece's corrupt and ineffective state. What profound reform have they implemented or designed since the election? None at all.

Everybody has done a poor job in this crisis, but the main responsibility for Greece's situation lies on the shoulders of incompetent and corrupt Greek politicians.

Agreed. I wonder if the current situation -- which increasingly looks like a Grexit -- could've (easily) been avoided had the government actually done anything in the last six months, really. But it's easier to blame it on everyone else trying to destroy Greece, the last remaining bastion of true democracy, all in one giant swoop, masterfully orchestrated by Merkel, Obama, Juncker, Lagarde, the Troika, the IMF, the EU, the Bilderberger, the New World Order and Alf, because reasons. \_(&#12484;)_/¯
 

chadskin

Member
Will there even be a referendum if the EU/ECB pulls the last life line? Is this what Tsipras and Co are betting on? "They didn't even let us vote."

A PASOK spokesperson and folks on Twitter point out Tsipras' proposal of a referendum may actually be unconstitutional.

Article 44
* 2. The President of the Republic shall by decree proclaim a referendum on crucial national matters following a resolution voted by an absolute majority of the total number of Members of Parliament, taken upon proposal of the Cabinet.
A referendum on Bills passed by Parliament regulating important social matters, with the exception of the fiscal ones shall be proclaimed by decree by the President of the Republic, if this is decided by three-fifths of the total number of its members, following a proposal of two-fifths of the total number of its members, and as the Standing Orders and the law for the application of the present paragraph provide. No more than two proposals to hold a referendum on a Bill can be introduced in the same parliamen- tary term
http://www.hri.org/docs/syntagma/artcl50.html

Since he said the question of the referendum will be about "accepting or not the creditors proposal", that to me is a fiscal matter -- with obviously broader implications but nonetheless -- and would therefore be unconstitutional to be put to a vote.

It'd be the latest fitting testament to the sheer incompetence of the Greece government if that actually turns out to be true.
 

LJ11

Member
I saw the old fin min, Venizelos, shouting about the referendum being unconstitutional which is a bit humerous seeing as how his party/PM wanted to take the memo to a referendum but it was ultimately axed, under EU pressure, along with the PM and eventually the Pasok party.
 

jimforspeed

Neo Member
Everybody has done a poor job in this crisis, but the main responsibility for Greece's situation lies on the shoulders of incompetent and corrupt Greek politicians.

No. That's like the couple with the asshole dude beating the girl, but she is still "in love" with him to break the relationship and keeps with it. Who is to blame there?

Honest, short history of modern Greece:
1973 the dictatorship goes down, the democratic messiahs come, everyone's delighted, the late 70s roll peacefully. Then we have the 80s with the peak of the modern Greek culture, the most classic comedies came then, the messiahs are giving the people what they want (we are talking about craziness). Everything's fine, apparently. The 90's are where all of this reveals its bad self, it's the peak of the corruption, trades of permanent public jobs and closer military service camps for votes, money scams, TV scams, construction contractor scams, everyone's living the Greek lifestyle, spending all the money for feasts, huge loans for buying cars, houses and getting married etc. But, there is still no apparent problem. The 00s come, somewhat this continues, but the results of a 30 years two-party system where the one tries to beat the other by promising more are slowly coming straight to our face and, well, you know about the 10s.

I see no justified blame for the politicians themselves here. We had more that 4 decades to mature and vote with our minds and not our pockets.
 
A PASOK spokesperson and folks on Twitter point out Tsipras' proposal of a referendum may actually be unconstitutional.

Article 44

* 2. The President of the Republic shall by decree proclaim a referendum on crucial national matters following a resolution voted by an absolute majority of the total number of Members of Parliament, taken upon proposal of the Cabinet.
A referendum on Bills passed by Parliament regulating important social matters, with the exception of the fiscal ones shall be proclaimed by decree by the President of the Republic, if this is decided by three-fifths of the total number of its members, following a proposal of two-fifths of the total number of its members, and as the Standing Orders and the law for the application of the present paragraph provide. No more than two proposals to hold a referendum on a Bill can be introduced in the same parliamen- tary term

Since he said the question of the referendum will be about "accepting or not the creditors proposal", that to me is a fiscal matter -- with obviously broader implications but nonetheless -- and would therefore be unconstitutional to be put to a vote.

It'd be the latest fitting testament to the sheer incompetence of the Greece government if that actually turns out to be true.

The bolded is how they give the move legitimacy. Iirc they still have majority, so it wouldn't exactly be hard. Wouldn't even be surprized if the other far left party supported the referendum.
 

jimforspeed

Neo Member
What's triggering the bank runs? Was there a specific event, or is it the general closeness to the deadline?

As soon as the announcement of the referendum hit (around 01:00) everyone ran to the banks. No one can say with strong arguments "I'm pulling all the money out because of these reasons", they are just scared. It's not unreasonable though, everything can happen at this situation.
 

Vlodril

Member
yea i just walked the dog and there are a bunch of people in the atms on the national bank (ethniki). About 20-25 waiting in line. Nothing really bad but still surprising to see.
 

Xando

Member
yea i just walked the dog and there are a bunch of people in the atms on the national bank (ethniki). About 20-25 waiting in line. Nothing really bad but still surprising to see.

Probably the best idea right now would be to get what you can from the banks, who knows if they'll open on monday.
 

Vito

Banned
This whole saga has turned me off the EU, They're more interested in teaching the Greeks a lesson than sorting out the problem humanely

You might want to pull your head out of your ass, cause the smell seems to be making you delusional. Tsipras has done nothing to inspire confidence, mostly because he was too busy rallying his voters against the evil foreigners instead of doing reforms and cleaning up shit at home. Had they shown better results, perhaps they'd be in a more favorable position to argue.

It's 3:00AM here and there are hundreds of students and families at queues at ATMs around the city. It's crazy.

Good job for screwing yourself over, the rest of Europe is getting tired of your shit.

I'm sure the GAF self proclaimed socialist club will be on my case again but whatever. Not like people in other countries aren't making concessions, have VAT rate hikes and lose some financial benefits, especially lower income people, because there simply is no money for it. To be fair, I'm just as annoyed with EU stupidity and not having anyone taking the blame for the failed reforms pushed the first time around.

But watching Tsipras get voted in on completely unrealistic promises and then him and that other nutjob parading around as some messiahs and dragging things along to the detriment of all, has been simply infuriating.

Go Tsipras, and go Greece. Every democratic-minded person in Europa is with you now!

Go fuck yourself, I hope choke on your cereal or whatever the hell nutjobs like you eat. Implying that people that don't agree with Tsipras are not democratic minded is insulting. You're just as bad as the right wing people you hate so much. Greece is paying for their mistakes, as much as we all like to blame the politicians, we're the one that vote them in place but fail to pull them down when they turned out to be incompetent or corrupt. And that applies to Tsipras & co. as well.
 

alstein

Member
A compromise had to be made, none was made. Neither side wanted it.
The Germans wanted to keep the current order by any means (it's in their self-interest) , the Greeks wanted to get a free lunch.

Unless the Germans are willing to use force (which is ridiculous), the Greeks were bound to default at some point.

Here's the thing, how would they kick Greece out even if they did default? What sort of vote threshhold is required? I'm guessing unaminous- in which case I could see some country vetoing it.
 

Kathian

Banned
Madness. Government has chickened out of making a decision.

What if the vote is No in the referendum? Surely this should be a referendum to stay in or leave the Euro and let the government make decisions based on this desire?
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Here's the thing, how would they kick Greece out even if they did default? What sort of vote threshhold is required? I'm guessing unaminous- in which case I could see some country vetoing it.

You can't kick out countries of the Euro. There isn't even a clause in the contracts for countries to leave the Euro voluntarily. What will happen is that Greek banks won't be able to get fresh cash from the ECB, forcing Greece to introduce some sort of alternative currency, making them effectively, but not officially, leave the Euro.
 

alstein

Member
You can't kick out countries of the Euro. There isn't even a clause in the contracts for countries to leave the Euro voluntarily. What will happen is that Greek banks won't be able to get fresh cash from the ECB, forcing Greece to introduce some sort of alternative currency, making them effectively, but not officially, leave the Euro.

What if the Greeks just started printing their own counterfeit Euros? I assume each country has a printing press for them.
 

Embearded

Member
You might want to pull your head out of your ass, cause the smell seems to be making you delusional. Tsipras has done nothing to inspire confidence, mostly because he was too busy rallying his voters against the evil foreigners instead of doing reforms and cleaning up shit at home. Had they shown better results, perhaps they'd be in a more favorable position to argue.



Good job for screwing yourself over, the rest of Europe is getting tired of your shit.

I'm sure the GAF self proclaimed socialist club will be on my case again but whatever. Not like people in other countries aren't making concessions, have VAT rate hikes and lose some financial benefits, especially lower income people, because there simply is no money for it. To be fair, I'm just as annoyed with EU stupidity and not having anyone taking the blame for the failed reforms pushed the first time around.

But watching Tsipras get voted in on completely unrealistic promises and then him and that other nutjob parading around as some messiahs and dragging things along to the detriment of all, has been simply infuriating.



Go fuck yourself, I hope choke on your cereal or whatever the hell nutjobs like you eat. Implying that people that don't agree with Tsipras are not democratic minded is insulting. You're just as bad as the right wing people you hate so much. Greece is paying for their mistakes, as much as we all like to blame the politicians, we're the one that vote them in place but fail to pull them down when they turned out to be incompetent or corrupt. And that applies to Tsipras & co. as well.



I am pretty sure that this kind of posting is bannable....


As a Greek, i welcome the referendum and i believe that people should be taking this kind of choices. I am not sure about my vote but watching N.D, PASOK and POTAMI shouthing against it, i feel like voting NO.
 

Vito

Banned
I am pretty sure that this kind of posting is bannable....

First, thanks for quoting my entire post to make a point and bolding the text and cluttering the thread instead of just selecting the relevant part. Second, choking on a cereal (or any kind of food) usually results in a coughing fit, which, at least I personally have managed to survive and I heard other survivor stories as well, so I think I'm not exactly a hero, it is however, not a pleasant experience. Choking to death, would be somewhat extreme though.
 
Aside the obvious point that this is just frustrating to see, I'm confused how Tsipras plans to do this. The current deadline is June 30 and there is no chance at all that any parliament in Europe will prolonge that. So is he hoping that the ECB will just keep him alive (which would be quite a bet)?
 

El Topo

Member
Aside the obvious point that this is just frustrating to see, I'm confused how Tsipras plans to do this. The current deadline is June 30 and there is no chance at all that any parliament in Europe will prolonge that. So is he hoping that the ECB will just keep him alive (which would be quite a bet)?

What's ECB gonna do? Let Greece default and cause banks and investors to finally officially lose hundreds of billions?
 

Xando

Member
This whole referendum thing doesn't seem to be really tought through from Tsipras.


Will they even make it to the referendum on the 5th? What if wednesday they can't pay the IMF? What if there will be no extension until sunday (99% sure there will be none since national parlaments has to vote on this)? What if EZ take their proposal of the table ( like they're threating to do so), what will the Referendum be on? Will Tsipras educate Greeks properly on the proposal or will he continue with his "They want to humiliate us" rhetoric? What if Greeks vote no, does the goverment understand that if they vote no there will be a grexit?


Lot's of questions still to be explained/anwered and only 8 days left for it.

What's ECB gonna do? Let Greece default and cause banks and investors to finally officially lose hundreds of billions?
Well programm ends on wednesday, doesn't it? I doubt they're gonna finance the bank run further without a official program backing them.
 
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