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[ElTorro]

What's ECB gonna do? Let Greece default and cause banks and investors to finally officially lose hundreds of billions?

I wouldn't rule that out completely. The ECB is already being criticized heavily, both from the outside and the inside, for extending the emergency liquidity assistance for Greece beyond what many consider a reasonable interpretation of their rules.

They will likely wait until after the referendum though.

 

[petran79]

One friend of mine living in the third largest city told me that he saw scenes reminding him of Last of Us.

People running to the ATM to withdraw money. Panic and police everywhere.
With that kind of brain, Greece is doomed from the start.

 

[ElTorro]

Will they even make it to the referendum on the 5th? What if wednesday they can't pay the IMF? What if there will be no extension until sunday (99% sure there will be none since national parlaments has to vote on this)?

There is no fixed automatism that activates if Greece does not pay the IMF on that deadline, even though the reports make it sound like there is. It is possible that all involved institutions will give them a few days to conduct the referendum. There is enough flexibility in their rules to interpret them accordingly.

 

[Frankfurter]

What's ECB gonna do? Let Greece default and cause banks and investors to finally officially lose hundreds of billions?

Again: If that's what Greece banking on, I'd say theY are insane.

 

[Pikma]

You might want to pull your head out of your ass, cause the smell seems to be making you delusional.

Good job for screwing yourself over, the rest of Europe is getting tired of your shit.

I'm sure the GAF self proclaimed socialist club will be on my case again but whatever.

Go fuck yourself, I hope choke on your cereal or whatever the hell nutjobs like you eat. Implying that people that don't agree with Tsipras are not democratic minded is insulting. You're just as bad as the right wing people you hate so much.

First, thanks for quoting my entire post to make a point and bolding the text and cluttering the thread instead of just selecting the relevant part. Second, choking on a cereal (or any kind of food) usually results in a coughing fit, which, at least I personally have managed to survive and I heard other survivor stories as well, so I think I'm not exactly a hero, it is however, not a pleasant experience. Choking to death, would be somewhat extreme though.

You sound like such a nice and happy person.

 

[luso]

I get the felling this referendum - at 25th hour - more than giving the decision power to the Greek people, is Tsipras and his Government wanting to take no responsibility on whatever is decided. Why didn't they setup the referendum soon after the elections then?

 

[ElTorro]

Well programm ends on wednesday, doesn't it? I doubt they're gonna finance the bank run further without a official program backing them.

Yes, but the IMF has already proposed other financial sources to provide Greece with 3-4 billions of Euros without the need to involve the Eurozone's parliaments. These funds could bridge the time necessary to pass a new agreement.

Sadly, there are enough means to extend this drama even further without the need to find a sustainable solution.

 

[ElTorro]

I get the felling this referendum - at 25th hour - more than giving the decision power to the Greek people, is Tsipras and his Government wanting to take no responsibility on whatever is decided. Why didn't they setup the referendum soon after the elections then?

Exactly. Tsipras wants to cover his ass instead of taking responsibility for his failed strategy. Both alternatives – adopting the reforms or leaving the Euro – would violate his pre-election promises.

 

[Negotiator]

One friend of mine living in the third largest city told me that he saw scenes reminding him of Last of Us.

Good thing I've been playing TLOU for a long time, lol.

People running to the ATM to withdraw money. Panic and police everywhere.
With that kind of brain, Greece is doomed from the start.

I guess without ELA banks will run out of banknotes, but what about credit/debit cards?

Would you still be able to use your credit/debit card or not?

 

[Theonik]

I guess I'll go back to vote on this damn thing.

People running to the ATM to withdraw money. Panic and police everywhere.
With that kind of brain, Greece is doomed from the start.

You know, I would sort of agree, then again it's perfectly reasonable. People have been in a state of panic since the previous government tried to convince them that Tsipras was the end of days and their savings, and people like having money to buy food.

 

[ElTorro]

I guess without ELA banks will run out of banknotes, but what about credit/debit cards?

Would you still be able to use your credit/debit card or not?

The ELA is not about physical cash. Greece, like every other country, should have plenty of actual banknotes in reserve. We are talking about digital cash transfers. But these are official nonetheless. Physical banknotes are just a representation of that money. You can't just take them out of the storage and hand them out.

 

[Xando]

Yes, but the IMF has already proposed other financial sources to provide Greece with 3-4 billions of Euros without the need to involve the Eurozone's parliaments. These funds could bridge the time necessary to pass a new agreement.

Sadly, there are enough means to extend this drama even further without the need to find a sustainable solution.

Goverment might pass through the week (though that's really doubtful aswell) but Banks will run out of cash. ECB will meet tomorrow and unless EU finmins negotiate anything today i can't see them financing ELA further.

The Greek goverment is pushing for a No vote which would mean default. I can't see other EU (and ECB voting member) states keep increasing the ELA cap when there are no negotiations running. Any ELA cap increase this week would likely be even more money thrown away to keep the already dead greek banking system on life support.

 

[Negotiator]

The ELA is not about physical cash. Greece, like every other country, should have plenty of actual banknotes in reserve. We are talking about digital cash transfers. But these are official nonetheless. Physical banknotes are just a representation of that money. You can't just take them out of the storage and hand them out.

Wait, I thought ELA was supposed to be the mechanism that allowed you to print euro banknotes?

All ATMs dispense freshly-printed 20 euro banknotes with Draghi's signature and code Y (printed in Greece).

 

[ElTorro]

Wait, I thought ELA was supposed to be the mechanism that allowed you to print euro banknotes?

All ATMs dispense freshly-printed 20 euro banknotes with Draghi's signature and code Y (printed in Greece).

The ELA are extended day by day, but the banknotes are not printed on a daily basis. Greece has them in storage, but is not allow to just hand them out without actually and officially having that money at its disposal. These banknotes might be new, and yes, they are usually printed in every country, but they are just physical representations of the actual money which itself is nonphysical.

Goverment might pass through the week (though that's really doubtful aswell) but Banks will run out of cash. ECB will meet tomorrow and unless EU finmins negotiate anything today i can't see them financing ELA further.

The Greek goverment is pushing for a No vote which would mean default. I can't see other EU (and ECB voting member) states keep increasing the ELA cap when there are no negotiations running. Any ELA cap increase this week would likely be even more money thrown away to keep the already dead greek banking system on life support.

Agree. Tsipras is really pushing the limit here. I wouldn't count on extended ELAs at all. The current ELA grants have already been criticized heavily, and extending them at a time where all Greeks are withdrawing money is a tough choice to make.

 

[alstein]

Turning yourself into a rogue state usually doesn't end well. You don't fuck with currency like that. Best case scenario you get sanctioned to hell and beck and locked out of global trade. Worst case scenario it's considered an act of war.

They're probably going to end up sanctioned anyways- I suspect Germany will try to Punish Greece as much as possible, to make sure it can't succeed on its own. As for Act of War, the US won't care, Russia won't care, so who would invade them? Germany?

That said, if Greece does it, others would to- and the Euro would get a heavy dose of inflation. It would be a disaster.

 

[ElTorro]

They're probably going to end up sanctioned anyways- I suspect Germany will try to Punish Greece as much as possible, to make sure it can't succeed on its own. As for Act of War, the US won't care, Russia won't care, so who would invade them? Germany?

That said, if Greece does it, others would to- and the Euro would get a heavy dose of inflation. It would be a disaster.

What are you even talking about? Any state that introduces fake currency would cease to have any trade relations with any other country. Why would anyone trade with a country that pays with fake money? This would be especially devastating for a country like Greece which imports almost all of their goods. The idea of Greece just printing Euros and thinking of getting away with it is beyond ridiculous.

 

[Nilaul]

Its fucked up. They basically want to tax the Greek medical industry heavily and kill it. The want to tax the touristic islands heavily too; potentially killing tourism too.

Those terms seem to be aimed at killing off whatever keeps the county afloat. No wonder there not signing this shit.

 

[Negotiator]

How do you discern counterfeit from legit banknotes? We're talking about euros printed in the National Mint.

Also: http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-allows-ireland-to-counterfeit-51-billion-euros-2011-1

Why did Ireland get away with it?

 

[Theonik]

Its fucked up. They basically want to tax the Greek medical industry heavily and kill it. The want to tax the touristic island heavily too; potentially killing tourism too.

Those terms seem to be aimed at killing off whatever keeps the county afloat. No wonder there not signing this shit.

They are completely out of their damn mind.

How do you discern counterfeit from legit banknotes? We're talking about euros printed in the National Mint.

Also: http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-a...n-euros-2011-1

Why did Ireland get away with it?

Usually it's not a crime if a country does it and it's only a question of if anyone cries foul. I am unsure Greece would be allowed to.
Edit: See bellow.

 

[Acorn]

How do you discern counterfeit from legit banknotes? We're talking about euros printed in the National Mint.

Also: http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-allows-ireland-to-counterfeit-51-billion-euros-2011-1

Why did Ireland get away with it?

Ireland played ball (they also weren't as fucked as greece so easier to play ball).

 

[Nivash]

They're probably going to end up sanctioned anyways- I suspect Germany will try to Punish Greece as much as possible, to make sure it can't succeed on its own. As for Act of War, the US won't care, Russia won't care, so who would invade them? Germany?

That said, if Greece does it, others would to- and the Euro would get a heavy dose of inflation. It would be a disaster.

State actors engaging in mass counterfeiting is extremely serious because of the volume that can be produced and the quality making the notes difficult to separate from legit notes. It can lead to a complete currency crisis where no-one can be certain which notes are real and which are fake. It can easily snowball into a banking crisis, a debt crisis and complete fiscal collapse. Counterfeiting as a weapon was considered during both world wars but typically fell through due to inability to reach the necessary level of quality and the difficulty of actually getting them to the target countries.

If Greece, for the sake of argument, went collectively mad and attempted to Zimbabwe their way out if this mess with counterfeit Euros it would be a threat to the entire Eurozone, far beyond the size of the Greek economy itself. If, again for the sake of argument, they refused to stop despite demands from the other EU countries those countries might even have grounds for invoking article 5 and declaring war out of self-defence.

But this is all hypothetical obviously, no-one would be stupid enough to even dream of doing it.

 

[Theonik]

State actors engaging in mass counterfeiting is extremely serious because of the volume that can be produced and the quality making the notes difficult to separate from legit notes. It can lead to a complete currency crisis where no-one can be certain which notes are real and which are fake. It can easily snowball into a banking crisis, a debt crisis and complete fiscal collapse. Counterfeiting as a weapon was considered during both world wars but typically fell through due to inability to reach the necessary level of quality and the difficulty of actually getting them to the target countries.

If Greece, for the sake of argument, went collectively mad and attempted to Zimbabwe their way out if this mess with counterfeit Euros it would be a threat to the entire Eurozone, far beyond the size of the Greek economy itself. If, again for the sake of argument, they refused to stop despite demands from the other EU countries those countries might even have grounds for invoking article 5 and declaring war out of self-defence.

But this is all hypothetical obviously, no-one would be stupid enough to even dream of doing it.

Yes. It is an extremely unlikely scenario and would not go down well at all.

 

[CTLance]

As an aside: As a German I kinda resent the suggestion that we would fucking invade Greece for fiddling with the Euro, even if it was made in jest. Oy. We're still human over here. Simmer down.

That said, things certainly don't look good. Can't say I approve of how Tsapris&Co

Spoiler

(or my government, or other governments and institutions for that matter)

have handled things. However, even in that frame of reference this referendum seems kinda pointless - unless you value stalling for time and covering some politician's ass. I mean, come on, that's just busywork.

 

[Theonik]

As an aside: As a German I kinda resent the suggestion that we would fucking invade Greece for fiddling with the Euro, even if it was made in jest. Oy. We're still human over here. Simmer down.

That said, things certainly don't look good. Can't say I approve of how Tsapris&Co have handled things. However, even in that frame of reference this referendum seems kinda pointless - unless you value stalling for time and covering some politician's ass. I mean, come on, that's just busywork.

I don't think humanity really comes into this. It's an extremely serious problem, and in hindsight another reason why the way this whole situation was handled, going back to the inception of the EZ has been miserably lacking.

On the second point you are right. Tsipras should just give the no answer now and save everyone from their misery. It is the right thing to do however to give this referendum. The Greek people were promised this referendum during the very first bailout discussions years ago before we ended up in this mess. The government at the time balked to the EU's demands to not do it after seeing the strong likelihood the Greek public would have slapped them across the face.

 

[Hammer24]

I always thought a Referendum over financial matters is expressly forbidden in Greece?

 

[oti]

Greek family and friends are in a really fighty mood today.

"It can't get worse than it is now so let's stir some shit up" seems to be how they see it.

They have absolutely no clue about basic economics obviously.

 

[Nivash]

As an aside: As a German I kinda resent the suggestion that we would fucking invade Greece for fiddling with the Euro, even if it was made in jest. Oy. We're still human over here. Simmer down.

That said, things certainly don't look good. Can't say I approve of how Tsapris&Co

Spoiler

(or my government, or other governments and institutions for that matter)

have handled things. However, even in that frame of reference this referendum seems kinda pointless - unless you value stalling for time and covering some politician's ass. I mean, come on, that's just busywork.

My point was more that state level counterfeiting is serious enough that Germany and the other Euro countries would have that as a legitimate option, not that they would actually use it. Simply closing the border to Greece, recalling all Euro notes and replacing them with a new design while Greece uses the old as monopoly money would obviously make more sense. Not that they would even think of doing it in the first place.

This is getting us sidetracked either way and is really beyond the realm of possibility, we might as well discuss how Germany would respond if Greek commandos kidnapped Merkel for ransom.

 

[ElTorro]

I always thought a Referendum over financial matters is expressly forbidden in Greece?

Strictly speaking, it is. Apparently, this issue will at least require some 'flexible' interpretation of the constitution.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-referendum-tsipras-eurogroup-ministers-live

Also, this supports the suspicion that Tsipras/Syriza are mainly trying to save their asses.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Greek family and friends are in a really fighty mood today.

"It can't get worse than it is now so let's stir some shit up" seems to be how they see it.

Their leaders agreed to international law that restricted their fiscal space via current account and deficit rules which sent them into a depression. Greece could be waiving more sovereign rights in an upcoming trade pact and still be a part of the Euro area so it could definitely get worse.

 

[petran79]

Strictly speaking, it is. Apparently, this issue will at least require some 'flexible' interpretation of the constitution.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-referendum-tsipras-eurogroup-ministers-live

The Greek Constitution has been violated on numerous occasions by all sides and one wonders what purpose does it really play. It will be another waste of resources to prepare the polls nation-wide. Greek politicians are of the most corrupted in the world.

Greeks dont fear abandoning the Euro as much that isolation would increase corruption and doom the country for good. Basically like today but 10 times worse.

Till 5th of July it will be a week of global uncertainty with the markets plummeting.

 

[ElTorro]

Rumors say that the Eurozone finance ministers won't support a bailout extension for the duration of the referendum.

 

[Akyan]

Rumors say that the Eurozone finance ministers won't support a bailout extension for the duration of the referendum.

You have to ask why would they? If the government is going to push for a no vote anyway all they'd be doing is sending good money after bad.

 

[ElTorro]

You have to ask why would they? If the government is going to push for a no vote anyway all they'd be doing is sending good money after bad.

Additionally, this entire procedure is just intolerable. All involved parties had MONTHS to come to a decision, and now Greece is unilaterally deciding to ignore deadlines and hold a referendum at the later-than-latest possible point in time. The timing is a joke. Who does that? These guys are just amateurs.

BTW, the live broadcast of the doorstep interviews of the Eurogroup meeting: http://video.consilium.europa.eu

 

[Shiggy]

It's great to finally see Merkel's way of conducting politics internationally. Instead of trying to find a long-term solution, we have been limping from short-term "solution" to short-term "solution" since 2008. That's 7 years.

People only blaming Greek politicians, do you really think further cuts will help? Seriously? I fully support criticism of Greek inefficient and overblown bureaucracy and other very restrictive regulations, which require reforms. But simply cutting pensions and increasing taxes, that's what has been done for years and has not solved the crisis.

 

[Frankfurter]

I really feel like this is it. Greece won't get any more money, so they'll have to default. Not saying this is all Greece's fault, but it just needs to be said that the current Greek government has done incredible damage to the Greek economy. I wouldn't be surprised if it were in a very deep recession again by now.

 

[Frankfurter]

It's great to finally see Merkel's way of conducting politics internationally. Instead of trying to find a long-term solution, we have been limping from short-term "solution" to short-term "solution" since 2008. That's 7 years.

People only blaming Greek politicians, do you really think further cuts will help? Seriously? I fully support criticism of Greek inefficient and overblown bureaucracy and other very restrictive regulations, which require reforms. But simply cutting pensions and increasing taxes, that's what has been done for years and has not solved the crisis.

So what's your solution? Greece needs to run a primary surplus anyway, because no one in the world (not a single person, business, country or organization) wants to give them a single €.

 

[Xando]

That will probably be it. Finance ministers saying there will be no extensions and even worse no more negotiations.

So now they are scratching everything together for the famous "plan b" whatever that is.

 

[Shiggy]

So what's your solution? Greece needs to run a primary surplus anyway, because no one in the world (not a single person, business, country or organization) wants to give them a single €.

How about demanding some real reforms instead of simple budget cuts? For some reason, Tsipras is not going for that either. Only the IMF seems to recognise the need for those at this point.

Trust in the Euro will probably decrease if Greece defaults, and the ECB losses will be immense...

 

[alstein]

State actors engaging in mass counterfeiting is extremely serious because of the volume that can be produced and the quality making the notes difficult to separate from legit notes. It can lead to a complete currency crisis where no-one can be certain which notes are real and which are fake. It can easily snowball into a banking crisis, a debt crisis and complete fiscal collapse. Counterfeiting as a weapon was considered during both world wars but typically fell through due to inability to reach the necessary level of quality and the difficulty of actually getting them to the target countries.

If Greece, for the sake of argument, went collectively mad and attempted to Zimbabwe their way out if this mess with counterfeit Euros it would be a threat to the entire Eurozone, far beyond the size of the Greek economy itself. If, again for the sake of argument, they refused to stop despite demands from the other EU countries those countries might even have grounds for invoking article 5 and declaring war out of self-defence.

But this is all hypothetical obviously, no-one would be stupid enough to even dream of doing it.

the North Koreans do this.

Article 5 is NATO- Greece is still part of NATO. Also, the EU wouldn't fight in general, especially if Russia got involved (and they probably would for religious reasons)

Yes, this is an insane scenario, but I could see the Greeks trying to fiat their way out of it somehow and daring someone to do something about it.

The question if Greece fails is whether someone will be next? People will be looking at Portugal next.

 

[Prime crotch]

If Greece defaulted a large portion of the debt would be cut, so lends to ask, why the fuck not cut an unpayable debt instead of trying to make neoliberal politics work, that have been proven and tried that dont

 

[Theonik]

I really feel like this is it. Greece won't get any more money, so they'll have to default. Not saying this is all Greece's fault, but it just needs to be said that the current Greek government has done incredible damage to the Greek economy. I wouldn't be surprised if it were in a very deep recession again by now.

It was in a very deep recession before. Since Samaras publicly threatened the Greek public with scaremongering end of times narratives people have also been socking away money for Armageddon, right now things are especially hairy however. You can definitely blame Tsipras's administration for a lot of what is going on, but they were always fighting an uphill battle both internally and on the international front against people more concerned about their positions than working towards a workable solution.

So what's your solution? Greece needs to run a primary surplus anyway, because no one in the world (not a single person, business, country or organization) wants to give them a single €.

There were better counter-proposals put in place during the negotiations that looked promising and were unexpectedly shot down. There is a high-stakes game of poker taking place here. The new set of measures however are absolutely unsustainable. The remaining Greek industry would collapse if they were implemented.

 

[Frankfurter]

How about demanding some real reforms instead of simple budget cuts? For some reason, Tsipras is not going for that either. Only the IMF seems to recognise the need for those at this point.

Trust in the Euro will probably decrease if Greece defaults, and the ECB losses will be immense...

That's been demanded for ~6 years by now and I don't see how that's IMF/EU's fault.

 

[Frankfurter]

It was in a very deep recession before. Since Samaras publicly threatened the Greek public with scaremongering end of times narratives people have also been socking away money for Armageddon, right now things are especially hairy however. You can definitely blame Tsipras's administration for a lot of what is going on, but they were always fighting an uphill battle both internally and on the international front against people more concerned about their positions than working towards a workable solution.

Actually, the Greek economy was growing three quarters in a row just before Tsipras took over.

It's not like only the international front that was more concerned about their positions, see Tsipras/Varoufakis and their behaviour in the weeks/months after the election.

There were better counter-proposals put in place during the negotiations that looked promising and were unexpectedly shot down. There is a high-stakes game of poker taking place here. The new set of measures however are absolutely unsustainable. The remaining Greek industry would collapse if they were implemented.

For example?

 

[oti]

Verhandlungen sind von #Griechenland beendet worden, Hilfsprogramm läuft am 30.6. aus, sagt #Schäuble http://t.co/2tlVhfaCkc

This is it, isn't it?

 

[Exploratory]

This is how you fall to a rogue nation.

 

[Shiggy]

That's been demanded for ~6 years by now and I don't see how that's IMF/EU's fault.

But there have never been mechanisms to ensure those reforms nor has there been any attempt by Greek governments to execute them. IMF and EU simply paid based on promises and budget cuts, but never did they check for reforms. Of course they are thus partly responsible. Same for the newest plans: The EU only wanted budget cuts but again didn't require any real and necessary reforms.

Let's be honest, with the newest plan by Merkel and the others, the next stage of the Greek crisis would've come in a matter of months. Why not look for a real solution?

 

[My words exactly!]

As a Greek i find it hilarious (and enraging if i didn't know how low they' ll steep for their bosses) that fat Benny, Samaras & co i.e. scum that repeatedly violated greek constitutional laws are crying foul at the referendum...

Roll on with the referendum i say. Whatever the result (personally i hope for a no) it will at least clear the situation. Sure it will be hard, even hell for some time but we'll get through it. It's time for us to man up. Also a tip: don't takr everything the larger greek media outlets show at face value... They excel at propaganda and have furiously sabotaged the current goverment since day one.

 

[ElTorro]

This is it, isn't it?

He wasn't the only one saying that. Basically all ministers said that Greece unilaterally and unexpectedly decided to leave the negotiations, that an extension of the bailout beyond the 30th is not on the table, that 'Plan B' (Grexit) is now the 'Plan A'. They all sounded pretty pissed.

 

[Xando]

This is it, isn't it?

Unless Varoufakis pulls out a rabbit out of his hat, probably.

 

[GasProblem]

This is it, isn't it?

Dijsselbloem is saying the same thing. There's no negotiating if the other party is asking the people to vote no in the referendum.