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[Hammer24]

The majority of Greece's defaults were in their early history, and directly related to their war of independence and having to modernise their country.

I agree, looking at historical defaults is not helpful.
But looking at Greeks inflation pre-Euro is, because its something especially the young Greeks do not remember, which is also the reason that in all polls you find the same: the older, the more they want to keep the Euro.

 

[patapuf]

Eh, sorta. When the proposed package will also fail, it's blackmail on all sides, you're just choosing which flavour your prefer.

There's really no good solution for the greek people i think.

On the one hand you'd want to tear everything down and rebuild from scratch. On the other hand people need to eat.

 

[Osiris]

Paddy Power offering only 1/3 odds on a Yes vote, 2/1 odds on a No.

The Guardian reporting Tsipras has tentatively reached a deal with Juncker based on his proposal last night and will be going to Brussels later. (Which EU officials have now stated was just Sunday nights offer being tabled again.)

 

[Hammer24]

The Guardian reporting Tsipras has tentatively reached a deal with Juncker based on his proposal last night and will be going to Brussels later. (Which EU officials have now stated was just Sunday nights offer being tabled again.)

Nikos Pappas just denied that. He stated that the referendum would be held no matter what, that the government would keep on lobbying for a No vote, that they have polls showing No to have a majority, and that talks would start again next Monday. (source: Handelsblatt.com)

 

[Savitar]

I wouldn't believe anything about deals being reached or completely ignored since there is bound to be a lot of people making up shit. Basically wait and see what happens, people will be saying the sky is falling even if they come to a deal or the reverse.

 

[Ted Striker]

I agree, looking at historical defaults is not helpful.
But looking at Greeks inflation pre-Euro is, because its something especially the young Greeks do not remember, which is also the reason that in all polls you find the same: the older, the more they want to keep the Euro.

Inflation takes a hike during the economic crisis in the 70s, stays high during the 80s because Greece didn't follow austerity policies like Thatcher in the 80s and starts to decline in the 90s when Mitsitakis and Simitis administration's austerity measures kick in along with Greece's negotiations and final acceptance to Eurozone which brings a crapload of cheap loans to the economy.

 

[tokkun]

I agree, looking at historical defaults is not helpful.
But looking at Greeks inflation pre-Euro is, because its something especially the young Greeks do not remember, which is also the reason that in all polls you find the same: the older, the more they want to keep the Euro.

Even with perfect knowledge, there is an old vs young dynamic at play. Under austerity, the youth are arguably suffering more. You hear a lot about the suffering of pensioners, but unemployed young people are in a worse position in the long term if there is an extended recession. On the other hand, a Eurozone exit - and subsequent hyperinflation - would hurt the old more than the young, because they are more likely to have retirement savings that could be severely devalued if not held in foreign assets.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Man, two smileys and calling the Guardian "right-wing" and you still missed the joke? Really?

lmao.

Of course we didn't miss the joke. Don't be dense.

The implication of the joke was that Syriza supporters are dogmatic enough to immediately brand anyone stating an opposing viewpoint as a right-wing shit rag, so we just wanted to show that we are not so dense as to believe that this was The Guardian's official line. Also, just to clarify for others, lest misinformation be spread.

Of course I checked your post history in this thread before my reply to make sure that you were not sincere when you called The Guardian a right-wing rag.

 

[oti]

Costa Cordalis has spoken.

Der im griechischen Elateia geborene Cordalis bleibt auch in der Krise optimistisch und ist davon überzeugt, dass Griechenland nicht untergehen wird: "Meine Landsleute lassen sich nicht unterkriegen, sie werden auch das schaffen, hundertprozentig! Auch wenn sie momentan verzweifelt sind. Sie befinden sich - wie ich damals im "Dschungelcamp" - in einem Tunnel und sehen kein Licht. Doch genau wie ich werden sie am Ende siegen. Dazu gehört viel Glaube, Disziplin und Einsatz - Eigenschaften, die für jedes Volk wichtig sind. Die sich auch die Griechen wieder zu Herzen nehmen sollten."

 

[A More Normal Bird]

Man, two smileys and calling the Guardian "right-wing" and you still missed the joke? Really?

lmao.

They understood your sarcasm, and were explaining why it wasn't accurate.

 

[Negotiator]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

EU is a joke. EU taxpayers are as much victims as Greeks.

 

[gutter_trash]

EU is a joke, they create regulations on all sorts of different industries, stripping the independence of each country on managing their industries but the banks and do whatever they want and apply the squeeze

the EU is a bum deal.

 

[oti]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

EU is a joke. EU taxpayers are as much victims as Greeks.

Come on, there's no need for this.

EU is a joke, they create regulations on all sorts of different industries, stripping the independence of each country on managing their industries but the banks and do whatever they want and apply the squeeze

the EU is a bum deal.

I'm so dissapointed nothing has changed since the real estate crash.

Japanese nuclear plant explodes -> Germany panics, things change.

Real estate bubble bursts, banks being banks -> that wasn't nice, let's make them go through some stress tests, that'll show them

 

[fanboi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

EU is a joke. EU taxpayers are as much victims as Greeks.

Ehem, what does alcholoic to do with anything? She earns 500k Euro year? And? Every top politician earns alot of cash.

 

[Negotiator]

Come on, there's no need for this.

Why? Is it false?

 

[fanboi]

Why? Is it false?

Maybe? Maybe not? I don't have any information regarding above.

But even if it is true, what bearing does it have on the current situation? Only thing which is questionable is the financial scandal.

 

[Negotiator]

Ehem, what does alcholoic to do with anything? She earns 500k Euro year? And? Every top politician earns alot of cash.

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't trust an alcoholic person to make serious decisions on behalf of the people...

Did you watch the video?

 

[patapuf]

Costa Cordalis has spoken.

What a quote. Truly inspiring stuff.

 

[Negotiator]

Also:

 

[oti]

What a quote. Truly inspiring stuff.

Yeah, I still hate him though. His name is Costa, my name in Konstantinos. People in school always called me Costa Cordalis and they always spell my name wrong. Constantinos? Seriously?

I'm having a moment here.

Spoiler

;_;

 

[fanboi]

I don't know about you, but I wouldn't trust an alcoholic person to make serious decisions on behalf of the people...

Did you watch the video?

No, I didn't Watch the video, read the text/image you posted.

I would trust or not trust an alcoholic based on previous decision, media comments etc. This sort of disease wouldn't affect it.

 

[oti]

Also:

Shouldn't it be possible though to leave both unions "just for one second" and become an EU member again a moment later?

 

[snap0212]

Japanese nuclear plant explodes -> Germany panics, things change.

Absolutely not what happened, but whatever. Germans wanted to shut down nuclear power plants for a looooooong time before that. Plans were made and everything and then these plans were abandoned. Then Fukushima happened and the government went back to what was originally planned: Plans to shut down the nuclear power plants.

 

[oti]

Absolutely not what happened, but whatever. Germans wanted to shut down nuclear power plants for a looooooong time before that. Plans were made and everything and then these plans were abandoned. Then Fukushima happened and the government went back to what was originally planned: Plans to shut down the nuclear power plants.

So things changed is what you're saying.

 

[chadskin]

The head of the European Commission made a last-minute offer to try to persuade Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to accept a bailout deal he has rejected before a referendum on Sunday which EU partners say will be a choice of whether to stay in the euro.

There was no official response from the leftwing government, elected in January on a promise to end austerity, but Greek daily Kathimerini reported that Tsipras had told Brussels he was considering the move.

A Greek official told Reuters: "There has been a lot of movement in the last few hours, in the direction of a new proposal."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150630

 

[Osiris]

Shouldn't it be possible though to leave both unions "just for one second" and become an EU member again a moment later?

I would imagine the lack of a functioning currency might be a roadblock to that.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Even with perfect knowledge, there is an old vs young dynamic at play. Under austerity, the youth are arguably suffering more. You hear a lot about the suffering of pensioners, but unemployed young people are in a worse position in the long term if there is an extended recession. On the other hand, a Eurozone exit - and subsequent hyperinflation - would hurt the old more than the young, because they are more likely to have retirement savings that could be severely devalued if not held in foreign assets.

This. Ne is for the old, oxi for the young.

 

[Chuckie]

Why? Is it false?

Maybe not but it seemed a bit of a hyperbole.

Dijsselbloem got his Masters degree at the University of Wageningen at the same time he also did research at the University of Cork.
According to the Ministry of Finance they made the mistake on his CV and mistakenly wrote he got the Masters degree from Cork instead of Wageningen.

 

[oti]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150630

I've spoken to my Greek friends who are my age (mid-twenties). Nothing can change their mind anymore. It's a NO all the way. They'd rather see everything burn to the ground so they can rebuild it from the start (is how they're seeing it).

My grandpa just wants his pension.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

EU is a joke. EU taxpayers are as much victims as Greeks.

Hmm, yeah, don't think any of this is relevant, especially Lagarde's gender.

 

[snap0212]

So things changed is what you're saying.

I'm wasn't sure if you were going for the often used narrative of "Germany going full on psycho immediately after Fukishima because they're scared" I see all over the internet. If not then I'm sorry, misinterpreted what you were saying. Anyways; closing nuclear power plants was the plan all along and they're following through with it, hopefully.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

EU is a joke. EU taxpayers are as much victims as Greeks.

When I see things like this I'm not sure what people are thinking. It doesn't matter how this week goes and what happens: Greece will need support from the outside (Europe/EU) in any case so I'm not sure if that "Fuck the EU" attitude is helping anyone.

 

[snap0212]

dp, sorry.

 

[darkwing]

what if Greece decides not to pay any debts anymore, they still lack the funds to run the government? even without debt payments?

 

[TheRagnCajun]

I've spoken to my Greek friends who are my age (mid-twenties). Nothing can change their mind anymore. It's a NO all the way. They'd rather see everything burn to the ground so they can rebuild it from the start (is how they're seeing it).

My grandpa just wants his pension.

I was reading Garth Turner's Blog today on the subject. The referendum should really read: "Do you want to stay in the EU?"'. If they vote no everything will burn to the ground. Greece has far more a stake here than the EU, or the global market for that matter. Everyone has deleveraged Greece since 4 years ago. At this point, no one is going to feel the pain but Greece.

 

[itsgreen]

what if Greece decides not to pay any debts anymore, they still lack the funds to run the government? even without debt payments?

The problem is that Greece doesn't have money.

They are in the process of getting additional aid. This is what this is all about... the deadline of today is about an IMF loan that needs to be repaid (1.6 billion).

A big problem is that if they don't pay their debts, it will be pretty hard to get new loans. This is also a problem for if Greece will leaves the Euro. They will find they'll have to pay a huge interest rate on their loans because no one will want to invest in a party that doesn't want to reform and doesn't pay back their loans...

 

[Osiris]

I was reading Garth Turner's Blog today on the subject. The referendum should really read: "Do you want to stay in the EU?"'. If they vote no everything will burn to the ground. Greece has far more a stake here than the EU, or the global market for that matter. Everyone has deleveraged Greece since 4 years ago. At this point, no one is going to feel the pain but Greece.

They have drawn down their exposure, but not eliminated it, the effects would be felt globally, with recovering economies at risk of returning to recession but all economies will be affected, even strong ones.

For Greece though, forget calling it a recession or even depression for the Greeks, you would need a new name for what they would suffer, I'm not sure I can think of a hole deep enough, sinkhole is too shallow.

 

[oti]

They have drawn down their exposure, but not eliminated it, the effects would be felt globally, with recovering economies at risk of returning to recession but all economies will be affected, even strong ones.

For Greece though, forget calling it a recession or even depression for the Greeks, you would need a new name for what they would suffer, I'm not sure I can think of a hole deep enough, sinkhole is too shallow.

Genesis 2.0

 

[Napalm_Frank]

what if Greece decides not to pay any debts anymore, they still lack the funds to run the government? even without debt payments?

The banks would bust after they no longer get any support fron ECB ect. and they would be pretty much forced to have their own currency if they cut all ties with the lenders.

 

[Osiris]

This. Ne is for the old, oxi for the young.

Only because the young seem to have this faulty idea that leaving the EU and "starting again" would means the debts are gone, they are not, even if Greece defaults that does not mean that the debt disappears, it really doesn't.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

They have drawn down their exposure, but not eliminated it, the effects would be felt globally, with recovering economies at risk of returning to recession but all economies will be affected, even strong ones.

For Greece though, forget calling it a recession or even depression for the Greeks, you would need a new name for what they would suffer, I'm not sure I can think of a hole deep enough, sinkhole is too shallow.

According to Garth Turner Greece is1.9% of the EU economy, or 0.5% of the global economy. The effect felt would amount to a speed bump. Plus, the EU has money to bail out other countries that may be affected:

What about contagion spreading to other debt-pickled places like Portugal, Spain or Italy?

Unlikely. But if it started, the EU is ready. The European Stability Mechanism is a permanent rescue fund with enough money in it to buy three Portugals.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

For Greece though, forget calling it a recession or even depression for the Greeks, you would need a new name for what they would suffer, I'm not sure I can think of a hole deep enough, sinkhole is too shallow.

I mean... probably not? It'll hit people with savings vested in Euros pretty badly, but people with savings in Greece at the moment are the people who are doing well. If you don't have any savings, then if Greece moves from the Euro to the drachma, you don't lose anything. On the contrary, given the value of the drachma would be much lower than the Euro, you gain a competitive advantage. Going on holiday to Greece will be even more attractive as you get more bang for buck, purchasing exports from Greece similarly. The Greek government will have more money to use - it currently runs a surplus even with having to meet its debt obligations. With no debt obligations, it could continue to run a surplus and still have more money to spend on loosening austerity measures. The initial period when the drachma is being floated and has no stable value will be rough - but it compare pretty favourably with almost a decade of austerity even more serious than that currently in place.

 

[Macadinho]

Someone started a crowdfunding campaign to pay Greece's 1.6 Billion IMF payment, it's already reached over €100,000

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Only because the young seem to have this faulty idea that leaving the EU and "starting again" would means the debts are gone, they are not, even if Greece defaults that does not mean that the debt disappears, it really doesn't.

So, most of it does. If Greece just refuses to honour those debts, there's not much other bodies can do. At best, those government can try, for example, freezing Greek assets and so on - but Greece/Greeks doesn't have many foreign assets any more, and that's not a particularly useful thing to do anyway.

 

[petran79]

I'm wasn't sure if you were going for the often used narrative of "Germany going full on psycho immediately after Fukishima because they're scared" I see all over the internet. If not then I'm sorry, misinterpreted what you were saying. Anyways; closing nuclear power plants was the plan all along and they're following through with it, hopefully.When I see things like this I'm not sure what people are thinking. It doesn't matter how this week goes and what happens: Greece will need support from the outside (Europe/EU) in any case so I'm not sure if that "Fuck the EU" attitude is helping anyone.

well the EU fucked Greek agriculture. Greece is forced to import bad quality milk and meat from abroad, while exporting her best quality biological food abroad. Farmers are paid not to produce.

1 cart of milk here consists of mixed 70-30. 70 % is the biological Greek milk, 30 % is the milk from abroad where animal conditions are not the best. This 30 % barely allows the minimum quality to make milk drinkable.

Not in the least. Turkey is a member of NATO and wants to join the EU. Yes, Turkey is going to protest Greece's attempts to increase its maritime borders unilaterally, but it's not about to attack an EU stats and NATO member. To do so would mean no possibility of EU membership and a good chance of getting kicked out of NATO, not to mention fighting NATO forces.

From Turkey's perspective, Greece's actions are more like China's in the South China Sea.
Emotions are not a good way to run a country. Especially such a small country like Greece.

From a purely numbers perspective, Greece could never hope to compete with another country's armed forces. The entire population of Greece is less than that of Chicago and New York City combined.

The government needs to tackle problems rationally and look for practical solutions (such as defense treaties) rather than just throwing more money at the military when it doesn't have the economy (or the population) to support it.

Of course, the whole invasion of Cyprus didn't happen until AFTER the Greek government sponsored a military coup on Cyprus and attempted to kill the leader.

It's not like Greece is totally innocent there.

Nah, Turkey were duped by Germany about joining the EU few years ago!

Greece has of the most skillful air pilots in NATO. They're ranked #2. Turkey is ranked in the last places.
Defense treaties are there of course and common NATO missions and drills do occur.
But in Cyprus crisis both countries were NATO members and Greece had withdrawn from NATO for a while as a form of protest
But now Turkey has 7 Armies!

In a conflict USA and Germany have more stakes and investment at Turkey rather than Greece. We've seen US senators visiting Northern Cyprus and a lot of tourists as well. It is not a matter who's right or wrong

Default is one thing, but regional conflict in Thrace or some islands would be the last straw

Ever since 9/11 I 'll never use the word "impossible".

 

[Coriolanus]

I mean... probably not? It'll hit people with savings vested in Euros pretty badly, but people with savings in Greece at the moment are the people who are doing well. If you don't have any savings, then if Greece moves from the Euro to the drachma, you don't lose anything. On the contrary, given the value of the drachma would be much lower than the Euro, you gain a competitive advantage. Going on holiday to Greece will be even more attractive as you get more bang for buck, purchasing exports from Greece similarly. The Greek government will have more money to use - it currently runs a surplus even with having to meet its debt obligations. With no debt obligations, it could continue to run a surplus and still have more money to spend on loosening austerity measures. The initial period when the drachma is being floated and has no stable value will be rough - but it compare pretty favourably with almost a decade of austerity even more serious than that currently in place.

It's particularly sad when you compare it to that one country that did the shitty default, has the same family in power for more than a decade, and is getting reamed by vulture funds.

greece's fucked so bad that one of the most incompetent administrations in the globe can still pull better numbers than them while trying (and failing) to give the finger to the whole world.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Someone started a crowdfunding campaign to pay Greece's 1.6 Billion IMF payment, it's already reached over €100,000

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/greek-bailout-fund#/story

Great, just need more than one thousand six hundred times one million dollars.

 

[Osiris]

I mean... probably not? It'll hit people with savings vested in Euros pretty badly, but people with savings in Greece at the moment are the people who are doing well. If you don't have any savings, then if Greece moves from the Euro to the drachma, you don't lose anything. On the contrary, given the value of the drachma would be much lower than the Euro, you gain a competitive advantage. Going on holiday to Greece will be even more attractive as you get more bang for buck, purchasing exports from Greece similarly. The Greek government will have more money to use - it currently runs a surplus even with having to meet its debt obligations. With no debt obligations, it could continue to run a surplus and still have more money to spend on loosening austerity measures. The initial period when the drachma is being floated and has no stable value will be rough - but it compare pretty favourably with almost a decade of austerity even more serious than that currently in place.

Currency speculation would both worsen and significantly extend that "initial rough period", a new, volatile currency from a nation in dire straights financially, I can hear the currency speculators salivating at the prospect.

So, most of it does. If Greece just refuses to honour those debts, there's not much other bodies can do. At best, those government can try, for example, freezing Greek assets and so on - but Greece/Greeks doesn't have many foreign assets any more, and that's not a particularly useful thing to do anyway.

So this new Greece would be so self-contained as to not need access to cheap credit ever again then? Wow, bold move cotton, let me know how that works out.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

I mean... probably not? It'll hit people with savings vested in Euros pretty badly, but people with savings in Greece at the moment are the people who are doing well. If you don't have any savings, then if Greece moves from the Euro to the drachma, you don't lose anything. On the contrary, given the value of the drachma would be much lower than the Euro, you gain a competitive advantage. Going on holiday to Greece will be even more attractive as you get more bang for buck, purchasing exports from Greece similarly. The Greek government will have more money to use - it currently runs a surplus even with having to meet its debt obligations. With no debt obligations, it could continue to run a surplus and still have more money to spend on loosening austerity measures. The initial period when the drachma is being floated and has no stable value will be rough - but it compare pretty favourably with almost a decade of austerity even more serious than that currently in place.

Hyperinflation does not compare favourably with anything.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It's particularly sad when you compare it to that one country that did the shitty default, has the same family in power for more than a decade, and is getting reamed by vulture funds.



greece's fucked so bad that one of the most incompetent administrations in the globe can still pull better numbers than them while trying (and failing) to give the finger to the whole world.

Argentina done fuck up when they went to US courts. It's amazing how much damage they do themselves by going in so hard on the Falklands, there is simply no way UK courts would have reached the same conclusion.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Hyperinflation does not compare favourably with anything.

Switching currencies doesn't necessitate hyperinflation.