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[Gemüsepizza]

Haha,this is the time to be dramatic. Things are definitely gonna get dramatic for Greek people. Austerity will be nothing compared to what's coming.

You seem to be convinced that the EU will kick Greece out now, and that they will lose the Euro as a currency. After all that's what many "experts" and politicians said in the last few days, right?

But what if the EU doesn't want to do this? And what if the Greek government knows that? Then a "No" vote would strengthen their position in coming negotiations. I still believe that they won't leave the EU anytime soon.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Of course.

Actually, no. If the funding is drawn from the ESM, then yes, it requires assent from 90% of member countries. However, the finding would not necessarily come from the ESM.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Why would Greece stay? It's so much easier to manage their own economy with a Grexit.

They can stay in the EU, but keeping the Euro makes no sense, they need to be able to control their own money supply. This is true for everyone in the Euro, especially the southern countries. Until the Euro is reformed significantly, that will be for the best.

 

[Frankfurter]

Actually, no. If the funding is drawn from the ESM, then yes, it requires assent from 90% of member countries. However, the finding would not necessarily come from the ESM.

I read your earlier post and I think it's unrealistic (to say the least) to expect that the ECB will just provide Greece with unlimited funds.

 

[aTTckr]

The precedent Greece will establish if it leaves the Euro will be just that the other countries will now do exactly what their creditors want them to do because after their citizens see that leaving the Euro would lead to Greece needing humanitarian aid like a third world country after a natural desaster will deter those voters pretty quickly from wanting to do anything simillarly to Greece.

 

[nature boy]

You seem to be convinced that the EU will kick Greece out now, and that they will lose the Euro as a currency. After all that's what many "experts" and politicians said in the last few days, right?

But what if the EU doesn't want to do this? And what if the Greek government knows that? Then a "No" vote would strengthen their position in coming negotiations. I still believe that they won't leave the EU anytime soon.

I think their tanking economy, capital controls and banks with no cash will speak louder than the results of the referendum- which no one knows the purpose.

 

[oti]

Vice President of the European Parliament blaming Greece/Greek government.

 

[PJV3]

Understandable choice by the Greek public.

Yep, any country faced with their future would end up like it, I'm just glad they didn't swing to the extreme right.

 

[SymbiantXenos]

Before any new greek talks can start it needs Bundestag approval anyway.

 

[chadskin]

I read your earlier post and I think it's unrealistic (to say the least) to expect that the ECB will just provide Greece with unlimited funds.

Yup. The ELA will be raised if, and only if, everyone agrees to a deal.

 

[oti]

"Grexit would strengthen Europe." - Vice President of the European parliament.

wow

 

[Ether_Snake]

The precedent Greece will establish if it leaves the Euro will be just that the other countries will now do exactly what their creditors want them to do because after their citizens see that leaving the Euro would lead to Greece needing humanitarian aid like a third world country after a natural desaster will deter those voters pretty quickly from wanting to do anything simillarly to Greece.

False. This is often repeated but is actually historically wrong. When countries are threatened, they rarely acquiesce, instead they look for a strong-arm to stand up for them. That means for example that if Italy or Spain were to find themselves in the same situation, people would think "well we will end up treated like Greece was, we need protection" and they'll vote for the anti-austerity party. That's exactly what happened in Greece; people voted for Syriza not to get "a better deal", but to first and foremost have someone who would defend them if shit hit the fan, and that's what they did.

It would play out exactly the same way in Spain and Italy; it's ridiculous to think that people will go for the old parties that have put them in that mess and who are asking them to bleed some more to heal. The outcome is always the same, eventually people are afraid of the ones they have been under and revolt, no matter the threats.

Any attempts to frighten other countries to keep them in, will do the opposite.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Why would Greece stay? It's so much easier to manage their own economy with a Grexit.

If they can push for reforms, and get euro-level bonds, transfers in the form of economic development + some level of social programs at the eurozone level, plus get a bailout / debt relief without having to further cut cut cut (and maybe even increase spending to stimulate their economy) then they should stay in the eurozone. Better still if they can get the same deal for say Spain.

It's not going to happen, but maybe they could get a portion of that with new negotiations and that might be enough to end the crushing unemployment and dying economy in Greece.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I read your earlier post and I think it's unrealistic (to say the least) to expect that the ECB will just provide Greece with unlimited funds.

Not unlimited. However, the ECB is at license to create new money at the discretion of Draghi. His constraints are political not regulatory. If other Eurozone leaders backed down at the last minute for whatever reason, they would not go through the ESM as they almost certainly would not have the time. The ECB (and EC to a lesser extent) would probably be the main mechanism they used, at least for the next three months or so until other European leaders did have time to go via the ESM.

 

[protonion]

61-39 just announced.

Nice polls morons.

 

[alexandros]

The official predictions just came in, 61% No, 39% Yes.


I voted 'yes', it doesn't really matter anymore. Tsipras now has the clear mandate that he was looking for, I sincerely hope that he is able to negotiate as good a deal as possible. My country's future depends on it.

 

[CrunchyB]

They can stay in the EU, but keeping the Euro makes no sense, they need to be able to control their own money supply. This is true for everyone in the Euro, especially the southern countries. Until the Euro is reformed significantly, that will be for the best.

Actually, by stepping off the Euro they will violate EU pacts, at which point the other members may marginalize Greece to the point that it doesn't make sense to stay in the EU.

 

[Xando]

Yeah, that's a sensible solution towards the United States of Europe. We've had this discussion before.

The tricky part is to convince 18 electorates...

It might be the right thing for economic weaker countries but i think this would push a lot of northern countries over the edge and turn them against the EU.

 

[Heartfyre]

61-39 just announced.

Nice polls morons.

Between this and the British General Election, 2015 has been a terrible year for pollsters.

 

[HarryHengst]

I wonder how long it takes before rumours that the results have been tampered with will start. :lol

 

[eBay Huckster]

Between this and the British General Election, 2015 has been a terrible year for pollsters.

I'm just hoping they're right on the other side of the Atlantic

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm just hoping they're right on the other side of the Atlantic

American politics is super easy to poll - one option versus one option with a very large sample size.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Actually, by stepping off the Euro they will violate EU pacts, at which point the other members may marginalize Greece to the point that it doesn't make sense to stay in the EU.

Well Greece would only print the Drachma if it has no choice, at which point it cannot be blamed for doing so. Again, some people here think that attacking Greece is going to make the EU/EZ look better in the eyes of the markets, but it won't, it will do the opposite, because everyone knows that whatever action is taken against Greece sets a precedent for those same actions to be taken against the next country to find itself in this situation, so it basically spells the end of the Euro.

Greece was the first bump in the road for the currency, but it's not the last one. How this one is dealt with will indicate how the next ones will be. Any attempts to hurt Greece, be it now or later, will frighten the other countries most likely to find themselves in the same situation. In democracies, you can't keep hitting someone into submission. Heck, even in the Middle East it doesn't work.

Also, they aren't the only ones in the EU without the Euro, so it's not that much of a big deal.

 

[eBay Huckster]

American politics is super easy to poll - one option versus one option with a very large sample size.

No, I mean that other country.

 

[SteveWinwood]

I'm just hoping they're right on the other side of the Atlantic

our polling is super accurate because there is a bajillion points of data

this was one week of hastily thrown together everything

No, no, that other country.

oh is there another country over here

 

[i_am_ben]

well based on the projections at least there will be some sort of small mandate

 

[PJV3]

Between this and the British General Election, 2015 has been a terrible year for pollsters.

People too ashamed to admit being tory to a pollster is a weird thing to deal with.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

No, no, that other country.

Oh, America Jnr.?

Spoiler

heheheheh

 

[Can Crusher]

These aren't private banks, besides the large majority of their debts are held by governments of other EU nations, aka their electorate. The ECB also owned by the various EU nations. To think this is like the EU siding a single, inflexible private bank over Greece is silly.

Point being that the EU has to be about something more than fucking austerity. If we are supposed to be "Europeans", if there's supposed to be a "union", then we have to act like we are together instead of acting like we are together just so the bigger economies can reap the benefits.

 

[chadskin]

Between this and the British General Election, 2015 has been a terrible year for pollsters.

It really has. "Wild" debates among political scientists will be had.

 

[Pennywise]

Vice President of the European Parliament blaming Greece/Greek government.

I get a bit of his criticism.
If we don't consider the part were the topic of the referendum is a joke itself, if you're going to put up a referendum where the people have to decide, there should be no influence from the government.

 

[Negotiator]

Point being that the EU has to be about something more than fucking austerity. If we are supposed to be "Europeans", if there's supposed to be a "union", then we have to act like we are together instead of acting like we are together just so the bigger economies can reap the benefits.

Merkel knows very well that the Eurozone is not sustainable without a transfer union.

The tricky part is to convince her electorate, as I said...

Greeks aren't going to endure Troika for another 20-30 years (I assume that the USoE idea will be socially acceptable by then).

 

[chadskin]

BREAKING: No plans for emergency euro zone finance ministers' meeting on Greece on Monday: Euro zone official

via Reuters

 

[Turin Turambar]

61-39 just announced.

Nice polls morons.

Two or three days ago there was a "leak" of a document where it showed how some of the media/tv companies planned to cook up polls, to support the Yes option. It was linked in this thread.
Of course you never know if the documents were legit or a fake.

But now, it may be the case the docs were in fact legit and the poll numbers were manipulated...

 

[Ether_Snake]

Merkel knows very well that the Eurozone is not sustainable without a transfer union.

The tricky part is to convince her electorate, as I said...

Greeks aren't going to endure Troika for another 20-30 years (I assume that the USoE idea will be socially acceptable by then).

And Germans won't endure transferring money to the south. It seems we have reached an impasse... Which electorate would be most favorable in leaving the EU: Greeks or Germans?

 

[Can Crusher]

Merkel knows very well that the Eurozone is not sustainable without a transfer union.

The tricky part is to convince her electorate, as I said...

Greeks aren't going to endure Troika for another 20-30 years (I assume that the USoE idea will be socially acceptable by then).

I understand that completely. It's pathetic really, coming from a country with such an embarrassing history (as of late).

 

[oti]

via Reuters

So they'd rather wait for Angela Merkel to come back from France? What kind of Europe is this?

 

[jorma]

Congratulations to Greece, i think they did the right thing. Hopefully a solution without a default can be worked out, but either way it's better than letting the troika bleed the country dry.

A few years of potential hyperinflation, but where things can only get better from there compared to a slowly declining economy with no hope of improvement seems like an easy choice.

 

[Condom]

So they'd rather wait for Angela Merkel to come back from France? What kind of Europe is this?

It's called Germany's backyard.

 

[SJRB]

 

[Courage]

Powerful. Greek people have spoken.

 

[Joni]

So they'd rather wait for Angela Merkel to come back from France? What kind of Europe is this?

They literally have no reason to rush anything.

 

[LJ11]

Early last week I thought it would go 60-40 the other way, as fear set in I thought everyone would rush to vote yes thinking it would be some cure all.

 

[Osiris]

Early last week I thought it would go 60-40 the other way, as fear set in I thought everyone would rush to vote yes thinking it would be some cure all.

I just hope they didn't think voting No would lead to a "cure all", because that really isn't the case.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Looking like landslide Oxi victory. Good going Greece!

 

[Rafy]

As a Greek citizen studying abroad, the only thing I am hoping for is that this ends well and it stays in the EZ...

 

[Dilly]

What does this even change? Greece voting for Syriza already indicated they wouldn't take any more austerity.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I just hope they didn't think voting No would lead to a "cure all", because that really isn't the case.

But one important thing it does is reaffirm that there is no strong division between the government's position and the people, which is really vital considering all the Troika has been doing is try to get the government to fall.

Now at least the government can move forward in whatever direction is necessary without the pretense that the population is not behind it. It's a nice big reset in the Troika's face.

 

[The_Inquisitor]

Well Metaxa said 'oxi; to the italians. Now Greece said 'oxi' to the bankers. Kind of a tradition in Greece.

 

[Courage]

Well Metaxa said 'oxi; to the italians. Now Greece said 'oxi' to the bankers. Kind of a tradition in Greece.

'Stubborn AND lazy!'