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[Nameless]

• Spiderman - Fall 2018
• Days Gone - Spring 2018
• Detroit: Become Human - December 2017
• Death Stranding - Spring 2020, last big PS4 release before PS5
• God of War - Holiday 2017-Q1 2018
• TLOU 2 - Holiday 2019
• Sucker Punch's new IP - Spring 2019
• GT Sport - Fall 2017
• Dreams - Spring 2018
• Knack 2 - Early 2018
• WiLD - Summer 2018, part of the PLAY program

 

[NotMyUsername]

• WiLD - Summer 2018, part of the PLAY program

Is WiLD not expected to be a full retail release? I assumed by the art and what was previously shown that it was a big game.

 

[border]

Some details to help people with their predictions.

Great post -- this should be in the OP.

 

[Son Of Sparda]

Some details to help people with their predictions.

Spiderman

• Biggest team ever on any single Insomniac project
• Has been in development for 2 years 8 months
• Sunset Overdrive was in development for approximately 3 years

Days Gone

• Development starting point unknown. Failed pitches/projects blur timeline.
• Team size increased from 50 - 100 from pre-production to full production.
• Game entered full production in January 2015.

Detroit: Become Human

• Development started before Beyond Two Souls.
• Pre-production stage in late 2013.
• Screenplay/script completed in Oct 2016.
• Valorie Curry, one of the main protagonist, completed mo-cap in Feb 2017.
• Beyond was in development for approximately 3 years

Death Stranding

• Development started end 2015/early 2016.
• Development entered full production in 2017.
• Targeted release window: Before 2019

God of War

• Development started in Aug 2013, with Cory's return to SSM.
• Game story/flow finalised in Aug 2014.
• Major hiring spree in Mar 2016, already in full production at that point.
• Playable from start-to-finish milestone in Dec 2016.
• Christopher Judge listed the game as a 2018 game on his profile before removing it.
• Average development time for GoW were 3 years, but major changes are involved causing difficulty in development timeline.

TLOU 2

• Story idea/concept for TLoU Part II started in 2013/14.
• Development put-on-hold/slowed down significantly to finish UC4.
• Development of TLoU Part II restarted in May/June 2016, after UC4 shipped.
• Average development time for ND games were 2 - 2.5 years, but major upheavals with UC4 caused difficulty in guesstimating what constitutes as early development for TLoU Part II.
• Development resources taken up by The Lost Legacy also blurs timeline expectations.

Sucker Punch's new IP

• Started development after Aug 2014.
• At a playable stage in June 2015.
• Stage of game development is behind/slower than Days Gone as of Dec 2015.
• Open-world game. New IP.

Dreams

• Started development after LBP2.
• Currently in stage of development where campaign is being built by MM team.
• Historical development time average cannot be quantified with Dreams due to scale of game being developed.

Knack 2

• Started development in 2014, with a 3-year dev window given to project.
• Developed by 60 staff members, bigger than previous Knack team.

WiLD

• Started development in 2014.
• Indie-studio founded by Michel Ancel, who is directing Wild and BG&E2 simultaneously at Wild Sheep & Ubisoft respectively.

Very helpful post.

Judging by this, sadly I no longer think Days Gone would be released this year.

 

[border]

Is WiLD not expected to be a full retail release? I assumed by the art and what was previously shown that it was a big game.

The "Procedurally generated survival game" premise of WiLD made me tend to think that it would be a downloadable title rather than a retail release. Charging $60 for something like that seems like a recipe for anger and backlash (see also: No Man's Sky).

 

[Alexander DeLarge]

WiLD: never (Sony will drop out as publisher)

I hope this happens. I want WiLD on PC and I don't mean this in a port begging way. I'd just hate to see it limited by console hardware.

 

[jayu26]

The "Procedurally generated survival game" premise of WiLD made me tend to think that it would be a downloadable title rather than a retail release. Charging $60 for something like that seems like a recipe for anger and backlash (see also: No Man's Sky).

No Man's Sky is one the best selling indie games of last year. The anger towards that game has nothing to do with the price and everything to do with the under delivering on promise.

I hope this happens. I want WiLD on PC and I don't mean this in a port begging way. I'd just hate to see it limited by console hardware.

lol, Yeah...that game is afloat and looking like it does because Sony is backing it. Otherwise, they would have already released half baked early access.

 

[SolarMystic]

• Spiderman - 2018
• Days Gone - 2018
• Detroit: Become Human - 2018 (maybe this year, doubtful)
• Death Stranding - LOL
• God of War - 2018
• TLOU 2 - 2019
• Sucker Punch's new IP - 2019
• GT Sport - 2018
• Dreams - who knows
• Knack 2 - 2018
• WiLD - LOL

Personally, I'm not holding out for anything big this holiday season. Sony likes to announce games WAY too early. Hopefully we get some surprise release date announcements for this year.

HOWEVER, we have had a fantastic start to this year so I'm generally okay with it.

 

[Grim Patron]

Spiderman - Summer 2018
Days Gone - Fall 2017
Detroit: Become Human - Fall 2017
Death Stranding - Fall 2019
God of War - Spring 2018
TLOU 2 - Spring 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - LOL
GT Sport - Fall 2017
Dreams - Canned
Knack 2 - Fall 2017
WiLD - no idea

 

[fatherKratos]

Spiderman: May/June '18
Days Gone: Aug/Sept '18
Detroit: Become Human: Sept '17
Death Stranding: Sept '19
God of War: Mar '18
TLOU 2: May/June '19
Sucker Punch's new IP: Nov '19
Knack 2: Sept/Oct '17
WiLD: Dec '18

Adding Ni No Kuni 2: July/Aug '18

 

[truth411]

Spiderman - Summer 2018
Days Gone - Fall 2017
Detroit: Become Human - Fall 2017
Death Stranding - Fall 2019
God of War - Spring 2018
TLOU 2 - Spring 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - LOL
GT Sport - Fall 2017
Dreams - Canned
Knack 2 - Fall 2017
WiLD - no idea

😂 really, REALLY!!! 😂

 

[Nightengale]

Sony likes to announce games WAY too early.

Of 52 first-party games with a confirmed release date...

6 took 2+ years from announce to release.
13 took an average of 18 months from announce-to-release, aka the traditional 2 E3 cycle.
32 games are announced-released in less than a year.

Even if we look at only retail releases; only two stand out in terms of average release deviation:

 

[Kssio_Aug]

• Spiderman - Winter 2018
• Days Gone - Spring 2019
• Death Stranding - Fall 2019
• God of War - Summer 2018
• TLOU 2 - Fall 2018
• Sucker Punch's new IP - Summer 2019
• GT Sport - Fall 2017
• Knack 2 - Summer / Fall 2017

 

[J_ToSaveTheDay]

My guesses:

Spider-Man -- April 2018
Days Gone -- October 2017
Detroit: Become Human -- February 2018
Death Stranding -- February 2019
God of War -- November 2017
The Last of Us 2 -- September 2018
Sucker Punch New IP -- October 2018
GT Sport -- August 2017 (yes, really)
Dreams -- gonna get cancelled or spin out into a more "tangible" game
Knack 2 -- December 2017
WiLD -- August 2018

 

[ALLseeingEYE]

Spiderman - Early 2018
Days Gone - Fall 2017
Detroit: Become Human - Fall 2017
Death Stranding - 2019
God of War - Spring 2018
TLOU 2 - Spring 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - 2018
GT Sport - Fall 2017
Dreams - Summer 2018
Knack 2 - Fall 2017
WiLD - Fall 2017

 

[IaN_GAF]

I completely forgot about Dreams and now I'm kind of depressed.

 

[biglittleps]

Spiderman - Oct/Nov 2017
Days Gone - Late 2018
Detroit: Become Human - Summer 2018
Death Stranding - Late 2019/Early 2020
God of War - Mar 2018
TLOU 2 - Summer/Late 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - Late 2018
GT Sport - Nov 2017
Dreams - Early 2018
Knack 2 - Dec 2017
WiLD - 2018

 

[Blobbers]

Spiderman - early 2018
Days Gone - holiday 2018
Detroit: Become Human - summer 2018
Death Stranding - holiday 2019
God of War - early 2018
TLOU 2 - holiday 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - 2018
GT Sport - holiday 2017
Dreams - 2018
Knack 2 - holiday 2017
WiLD - 2018

 

[Elfstruck]

I hope this happens. I want WiLD on PC and I don't mean this in a port begging way. I'd just hate to see it limited by console hardware.

What is being limited here if you dont mind me asking.

 

[Samanosuke Akechi]

Switch

 

[gofreak]

Dreams - Beta: 2017, 'official' release: Spring 2018

I hope there's a beta this year anyway. For me, that would for all intents and purposes be the launching point for that.

 

[aspiegamer]

Sure, I'll play along.

Spiderman - Timed to movie release, potentially a few months prior if some sort of prologue/prequel storyline. So Holiday 2018.
Detroit: Become Human - Summer 2018. Hopefully.
Death Stranding - 2019 but then delayed more after that. 2020 PS5 launch title but then delayed even more.
God of War - Early 2018
TLOU 2 - Late 2018 delayed to mid 2019. Will get a port for PS5 launch.
GT Sport - Fall 2017. Needs to beat the holiday rush to avoid getting swamped like GT6 was. Will be only PS4 GT title, looking ahead to PS5 launch.
Dreams - ??? Like seriously, anything late 2017 through 2020, all equally probable.

So! Of the biggest titles:
2017
Q3: GT Sport
Q4: Knack 2
2018
Q1: God Of War
Q2: Detroit
Q3: Days Gone
Q4: Spiderman
2019+
Death Stranding, new announces from this E3.

Switch

Outstanding contribution.

 

[ActWan]

Spiderman - 2018
Days Gone - 2018
Detroit: Become Human - 2017 (believe)
Death Stranding - 2019
God of War - 2018
TLOU 2 - 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - 2019/ late 2018
Dreams - 2017 (believe)
WiLD - 2018

 

[LegendofDragoonLives]

All are pretty random guesses.

Spiderman - May 2018

Days Gone - February 2018

Detroit: Become Human - April 2018

Death Stranding - November 2019

God of War - October 2017

TLOU 2 - Q2 2020

Sucker Punch's new IP - October 2018

GT Sport - September 2017

Dreams - December 2017

Knack 2 - September 2017

WiLD - March 2018

TLOU 2 will definitely not be released until 2020 at the earliest. They showed off that trailer incredibly early so that the possibility of the game being leaked was much lower.

so ND is going to tale far longer than they ever have just because reasons on this game? Nomura isn't leading this game, no way it tales longer than 2019

 

[Shin]

A couple of those will be PS5 games.

Hehe, while most likely true that sentence itself makes me happy.
More and more there are comments about PS5, it's a so close yet so far kinda thing

 

[Circinus]

Just guessing.

• Spider-Man - May 2018
• Days Gone - February 2018
• Detroit: Become Human - October 2018
• Death Stranding - September 2020
• God of War - April 2018
• TLOU 2 - November 2019
• Sucker Punch's new IP - February 2019
• GT Sport - December 2017
• Dreams - September 2018
• Knack 2 - November 2017
• WiLD - July 2018, might not be published by SIE anymore
  

 

[SolarMystic]

Of 52 first-party games with a confirmed release date...

6 took 2+ years from announce to release.
13 took an average of 18 months from announce-to-release, aka the traditional 2 E3 cycle.
32 games are announced-released in less than a year.

Even if we look at only retail releases; only two stand out in terms of average release deviation:

I'm talking the heavy hitters. The games that people buy a PlayStation specifically to play.

Most people don't care what the turn around time is for PlayStation VR World's.

 

[Spladam]

Some details to help people with their predictions.

Spiderman

• Biggest team ever on any single Insomniac project
• Has been in development for 2 years 8 months
• Sunset Overdrive was in development for approximately 3 years

Days Gone

• Development starting point unknown. Failed pitches/projects blur timeline.
• Team size increased from 50 - 100 from pre-production to full production.
• Game entered full production in January 2015.

Detroit: Become Human

• Development started before Beyond Two Souls.
• Pre-production stage in late 2013.
• Screenplay/script completed in Oct 2016.
• Valorie Curry, one of the main protagonist, completed mo-cap in Feb 2017.
• Beyond was in development for approximately 3 years

Death Stranding

• Development started end 2015/early 2016.
• Development entered full production in 2017.
• Targeted release window: Before 2019

God of War

• Development started in Aug 2013, with Cory's return to SSM.
• Game story/flow finalised in Aug 2014.
• Major hiring spree in Mar 2016, already in full production at that point.
• Playable from start-to-finish milestone in Dec 2016.
• Christopher Judge listed the game as a 2018 game on his profile before removing it.
• Average development time for GoW were 3 years, but major changes are involved causing difficulty in development timeline.

TLOU 2

• Story idea/concept for TLoU Part II started in 2013/14.
• Development put-on-hold/slowed down significantly to finish UC4.
• Development of TLoU Part II restarted in May/June 2016, after UC4 shipped.
• Average development time for ND games were 2 - 2.5 years, but major upheavals with UC4 caused difficulty in guesstimating what constitutes as early development for TLoU Part II.
• Development resources taken up by The Lost Legacy also blurs timeline expectations.

Sucker Punch's new IP

• Started development after Aug 2014.
• At a playable stage in June 2015.
• Stage of game development is behind/slower than Days Gone as of Dec 2015.
• Open-world game. New IP.

Dreams

• Started development after LBP2.
• Currently in stage of development where campaign is being built by MM team.
• Historical development time average cannot be quantified with Dreams due to scale of game being developed.

Knack 2

• Started development in 2014, with a 3-year dev window given to project.
• Developed by 60 staff members, bigger than previous Knack team.

WiLD

• Started development in 2014.
• Indie-studio founded by Michel Ancel, who is directing Wild and BG&E2 simultaneously at Wild Sheep & Ubisoft respectively.

I nominate you as 2017's most well informed Gaffer.

 

[Circinus]

I'm talking the heavy hitters. The games that people buy a PlayStation specifically to play.

Most people don't care what the turn around time is for PlayStation VR World's.

That's not many people. Certainly a minority of all the PS4 owners.

 

[SolarMystic]

That's not many people. Certainly a minority of all the PS4 owners.

Sure, most people buy it to just play call of duty, madden, or FIFA, but what does that have to do with my statement that Sony takes too long from announcement -> release for their big first party hitters?

 

[R&R]

Knack 2 - Sep 2017
GT Sport- Dec 2017
Days Gone - Feb 2018
God of War - Mar 2018
Spiderman - May 2018
Dreams - Summer 2018
Detroit - Sep 2018
WiLD - 2018
SP new IP - Early 2019
The Last of Us - May 2019
Death Stranding - Sep 2019
Agent - When it's done

 

[Nightengale]

I'm talking the heavy hitters. The games that people buy a PlayStation specifically to play.

Most people don't care what the turn around time is for PlayStation VR World's.

Ok then, except U4, what's egregious about the average turnaround time of 16-18 months? If you average out all the "heavy hitters", that is what it averages to.

The reason I showed a retail only list is so you can see for yourself the average turnaround time of all the "big games" that you deem are noteworthy.

 

[SolarMystic]

Ok then, except U4, what's egregious about the average turnaround time of 16-18 months? If you average out all the "heavy hitters", that is what it averages to.

That's generally the quickest they turn around games (outside of launch titles which are obviously contained by the announcement of the console). Many times it's later or is met with delays. Delays that would be negated if they stuck to announcing stuff that's due in 12 months or less.

Sony isn't the only one, Rockstar consistently does this as a recent example.

 

[Nightengale]

That's generally the quickest they turn around games (outside of launch titles which are obviously contained by the announcement of the console). Many times it's later or is met with delays. Delays that would be negated if they stuck to announcing stuff that's due in 12 months or less.

Sony isn't the only one, Rockstar consistently does this as a recent example.

If 12 months is your preference then I rest my case. To me the 18 months cycle is still acceptable since it's basically the Two E3 Appearances model that they like to do.

 

[OléGunner]

You'd be a fool to put Days Gone, GoW or Detroit in 2017.
Those games are nowhere near release and clearly still deep in the oven.

For the remainder of 2017 it's UC: TLL, Knack 2, GT Sport and Everybody's Golf.

 

[Akainu]

Wasn't aware suckerpunch mentioned working on a new ip.

 

[Apathy]

All I can say thanks to my crystal ball is that death stranding and tlou2 are "when that are done" games, and I wouldn't have it any other way

 

[KORNdoggy]

i still think spiderman will be fall 2017. i just have a feeling.

 

[FelipeMGM]

• Knack 2 - October 2017
• GT Sport - November 2017
• Detroit: Become Human - December 2017
• God of War - March 2018
• Dreams - May 2018
• Days Gone - July 2018
• WiLD - August 2018
• Spiderman - October 2018
• Sucker Punch's new IP - March 2019
• TLOU 2 - May 2019
• Death Stranding - September 2019

 

[ryanofcall]

Spiderman - September 2017
Days Gone - October 2017
Knack 2 - November 2017
Dreams - February 2018
GT Sport - April 2018
Detroit: Become Human - June 2018
God of War - October 2018
WiLD - September 2018
Death Stranding - January 2019
TLOU 2 - March 2019
Sucker Punch's new IP - June 2019

 

[Elandyll]

My guesses and reasonning


Spider-Man: November or December 2017 - Whenever the video release of Homecoming happens, or close to it.
Days Gone: Oct or November 2017 - with both RDR2 and Far Cry 5 out of the way, an open world post Apoc Zombie should do well
Detroit: Become Human: May/ June 2018 - QD likes to release in Holidays, but I see this one as tentpole for Q2 2018
Death Stranding: March 2019 - 1 of 2 big Q1 2019 titles
God of War: March 2018 - pretty much tradition and big title of Q1 2018
TLOU 2: May/ June 2019 - The last big 1st party release before PS5 arrives, mirroring TLOU
Sucker Punch's new IP: Feb 2019 - cf Death Stranding
GT Sport: October 2017 - follows Destiny 2 for Marketing expenditure, and before the COD/ Battlefront/ AC onslaught of Nov
Dreams: Beta summer 2017, release Dec 2017- ideal for Xmas
Knack 2: Dec 2017 - see Dreams
WiLD: Dec 2018 - Could see it as the Holiday title for 2018

Summary:
2017: Spider-Man, Days Gone, GTS, Dreams, Knack2
2018: God of War, Detroit, WilD
2019: Sucker Punch, Death Stranding, TLOU2


Possible surprises: inversion of GoW and Days Gone releases, Detroit pushed to Holiday 2018

 

[opricnik]

I doubt Spider Man is so far out like people say summer 2018 or something.

february at worst.
potentially even this holiday.

knack2 , gt sports %100 this year.

dreams is fucked i doubt it will ever release and be good.

detroit will be january or february.

god of war march. just like heavy rain god of war 3 .

may days gone

last of us 2 november 2018

rest wont release

 

[SolarMystic]

If 12 months is your preference then I rest my case. To me the 18 months cycle is still acceptable since it's basically the Two E3 Appearances model that they like to do.

Okay, I just find it unnecessarily long. Don't need two E3 showings IMO.