Hawkian's Theory of MMO Community Discourse
So ironically, I was going to make this post before I saw these two adjacent comments that happened to help me out...
ludicrously valuable rewards
I apologize in advance for the length of this.
Please bear with me if you find the dynamics of MMO communities at all interesting.
I must say- this event more than anything else so far has firmed up a theory I've been considering for a while now regarding MMO communities of sufficient scale.
Boiled down, it goes like this:
Once a player base of a certain size has been reached, any decision by the devs will be opposed by roughly the same number of players (with few exceptions).
While at face value this looks like the same
group of gamers will complain no matter what occurs, that's not it at all. In fact,
that scenario would be a far worse one (encouraging this is addressed as "Approach 1" below).
On the contrary, allow me to demonstrate what I mean with some examples. If you find yourself saying "nobody could really want that!" or "how many people could possibly object to that?" I want you to bear in mind that what you are experiencing isn't evidence against my theory, but actually the phenomenon I'm describing manifesting itself in you on an individual level.
So here goes:
- Some people feel that all the dungeons are too hard: that none of them are actually completable, or if so, wouldn't be at all fun.
- Some people believe all dungeons are too easy: simply not a challenge under any scenario for a good group.
- Some people hate any events designed so that "you have to be there": meaning if you miss a scheduled point in time, you miss out altogether.
- Some people hate "everyone's a winner" event content: as long as you have an account, the experience is the same for everybody.
- Some people hate the "cosmetic endgame": the idea that all you're doing past a certain point in playtime is playing dress-up with your avatar.
- Some people want even more focus on cosmetics: more skins and ways to get skins, physical appearance changes, and a rejection of any vertical progression, and want these things more than new gameplay content.
- As in my quoted examples above, some people want events to carry lesser rewards (in case you miss them), some people want guaranteed better rewards (because you put in the work, after all).
- There's the most exhausted example: roughly the same number of people will be happy vs unhappy when a class is nerfed, depending on whether or not it's theirs or that of their opponents
For every Markot on this board, quitting and (somewhat ludicrously) getting a refund out of a fear of the slippery slope into gear grind hell, there's Tokram on another board, quitting and asking for a refund three months from now because he's still using the exact same items he was back at Halloween.
While I've long understood the "you can't please everybody" concept, it wasn't until recently that it dawned on me that the
number of displeased players, with some degree of deviation, will largely remain the same no matter what.
To throw together some fake, highly speculative numbers:
Let's say your playerbase is one million (1,000,000). We know for a fact this is
way less, less than half in fact, of GW2's actual sales so far, but just for ease of computation.
Now let's say that roughly 5%, give or take 2%, will be unhappy with a given decision (say, the rewards for killing the Ancient Karka).
So 93-97% of the playerbase is content. The other 3-7%, which represents 30,000-70,000 gamers, are unhappy. Note: these unhappy thousands could be unhappy with regard to
anything about the rewards- pissed they were so good and they missed them, pissed that they weren't better because of how hard they were to get, pissed that they were good but didn't get a precursor unlike others, pissed just that they were on a different scale than past rewards- for this example, all these people fall under the same 3-7%.
Of those unhappy gamers, let's say that depending on the scope of the issue, 1% up to a maximum of 50%, give or take 2%, are the "vocal" subset of the community- people like us, who post on message boards, talk to the devs, follow subreddits, etc. That's ~300-35000 gamers who are upset, have the means and motivation to voice their discontent, and will do so. The vast majority of players- around 95%- are either content enough with the game or not involved enough with it to complain vocally about it. The majority of the gamers who
are discontent are still not going to voice their complaints loudly on the internet. That leaves the other portion, which I'll call the "malcontent pool."
My contention is that the
number of vocally discontent gamers comprising the malcontent pool will not appreciably change regardless of the decision. To use this weekend as an easy example: if the rewards had been better, more people would be upset for having missed out on the event, but fewer would be unhappy with what they got. If the rewards were made worse, more people would be upset with the rewards, but fewer would complain about their one-time (or one-
day, as it turned out, because we're oh-so-clever) nature.
Different subsets of the vocal minority will speak up when any given decision is made, such that the pool of unhappy players never really shrinks or grows- it is simply composed of different people at any point in time.
My impression is that developers like ArenaNet know this to be true. What can you do about it? By and large, there are two approaches:
Approach 1) In order to keep the pool of unhappy players as stable as possible, settle into a pattern of "safe" content. That is, don't really ever do anything unexpected- make sure your playerbase knows what's coming, and make sure not to do anything that would dramatically upset anyone other than the people who are already upset. If you charge a subscription fee, I have to say that this strikes me as the simpler, more-logical approach.
Approach 2) Embrace the fact that the number cannot be appreciably lessened, and keep your playerbase on its toes, despite the fact that a different subset of your fans will be upset at essentially every step along the way. Change things at will and deal with the resulting issues as they come, even if it means a larger variety of complaints.
By and large ArenaNet seems to be following method 2. There are going to be stumbles along the way, mistakes and glitches and ideas that went off the rails. There are also going to be extraordinary triumphs, moments that cause unbridled arcade-gamey joy in hundreds of thousands of people at once. If you take a step back and look at this game through of lens of "how is this all going to look in 3 years?" it is, in my opinion, difficult to not at least be impressed with what they're trying to do.
What does all this mean for us? So far as I can tell, three things.
1) Just posting about the game (as we're doing daily) won't have any impact on it. I mean it- whether you fall into the caricature of
"entitled whiner" or
"obnoxious fanboy" like me, all of this is inconsequential to what's going to happen with the game. It's only worthwhile if you actually enjoy or get something out of the argument itself. Hint: it happens to be fun for me, if you were wondering
2) The vocal minority is beneficial to the playerbase as a whole- ArenaNet should not listen to them solely, nor listen to them 100% of the time, nor listen to them on any particular subject. However, their clarion voices become exceedingly important when an issue arises that DOES impact a greater number than the malcontent pool,
but wouldn't be made public loudly enough without them. A fantastic example is the scenario with people who got DCed or crashed during the event and didn't get rewards. Complaints were made, ArenaNet read them, and responded same-day that a solution would be offered to these players. This is one of the "few exceptions" I mentioned in the postulated theory. Getting ArenaNet to speak out on culling is another. No one defends these things and it's to the benefit of all that they get fixed- there aren't two sides. For all the vitriol, this is, in my opinion, an example of MMO community dynamics at their best.
3) They're going to keep doing stuff like this. Or, more accurately, they're going to keep doing
lots of different things, and some of them will be like this. Others will be completely different.
If you're the type that has been dramatically upset by anything that has happened so far, you're likely to experience that feeling a few more times before the life cycle of this game is over.
My approach (and I hope I have not come off as attempting to push this on anyone) is to constantly bear in mind that what is being attempted here is unprecedented, and take the good with the bad. Without charging a monthly fee, this game experiences an increasing return on investment with every hour of enjoyment that passes. Even if I had paid full price (which I didn't), and even if 100 hours of my playtime were worthless and grueling (they weren't) and cut from the equation, I'd have thus far paid
11 cents per hour of enjoyment since my purchase, and the amount of content and refinement of the experience has also increased over time. This is outstanding and something any game, regardless of scale, should strive to achieve.
Tragic as it might sound, upsetting hundreds of people every single day is par for the course in this genre. How the fallout is dealt with is what sets any given developer apart from the pack. From now on, I'm going to keep in mind that the raging of the malcontent pool has no tangible impact on my own enjoyment, and will benefit everyone in the long term.