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[Gary Whitta]

In the United States, standalone HD DVD players have 61% market share, while Blu-ray players have 36% share and the few dual-format players have a 3% share, according to market research company The NPD Group Inc.

This seems bizarre to me, considering that the software purchasing statistics are flipped almost exactly the other way. What then does this tell us? That even though HD-DVD currently has a larger installed base, Blu-ray players are the more prolific disc buyers? If so does that suggest that a lot of HD-DVD players are gathering dust?

Ultimately I just can't make sense of this statistic. Players are skewed roughly 65/35 in favor of HD-DVD, but disc sales on titles where split numbers are available (Departed, 300) go roughly 65/35 in favor of Blu-ray. This makes little sense to me. Can someone explain what's going on behind the numbers here? Is the "standalone" term key, with PS3 Blu-ray users massively outstripping 360 HD-DVD add-on users but not reflected in these stats?

 

[VanMardigan]

This seems bizarre to me, considering that the software purchasing statistics are flipped almost exactly the other way. What then does this tell us? That even though HD-DVD currently has a larger installed base, Blu-ray players are the more prolific disc buyers? If so does that suggest that a lot of HD-DVD players are gathering dust?

Ultimately I just can't make sense of this statistic. Players are skewed roughly 65/35 in favor of HD-DVD, but disc sales on titles where split numbers are available (Departed, 300) go roughly 65/35 in favor of Blu-ray. This makes little sense to me. Can someone explain what's going on behind the numbers here? Is the "standalone" term key, with PS3 Blu-ray users massively outstripping 360 HD-DVD add-on users?

PS3 isn't counted as a standalone. There's your explanation.

 

[Gary Whitta]

I think it's time then to ditch the term "standalone" or at least take its use with a pinch of salt from now on. If PS3 is having a large impact on Blu-ray movie sales (which according to the above numbers it clearly is), it should be considered a proper Blu-ray player in reported numbers and not thrown into its own statistical ghetto simply because it does other things, too. It's just another way for one faction to spin the numbers favorably their way regardless of the real-world situation. I think everyone can agree that the PS3 is not just a valid choice for a Blu-ray player but one of the very best on the market in both performance and price - and yet the HD-DVD camp will find ways to invalidate its inclusion in order to keep at least some of their statistics on life-support.

 

[VanMardigan]

It can't be thrown in with standalone numbers, because:

1. It is NOT a standalone

2. There is no real way to determine how many Ps3 users are buying movies, though we know most people who own a Ps3 don't even know what Blu Ray is

3. A Ps3 purchase is simply not a vote in the format wars, necessarily, while buying a standalone is a firm vote towards an HD optical disc format.

 

[thaivo]

I think it's time then to ditch the term "standalone" or at least take its use with a pinch of salt from now on.

Yes, but as a recent report showed, only around 50% of PS3 owners even are aware of the BD drive, and then only 50% of that number are actually using it to watch BD films.

Obviously the PS3 accounts for a significant amount of the BD purchases, but there is a valid reason for either using or not using the distinction of "stand alone" players.

 

[joesmokey]

You forgot an important quote:

And you forgot the rest of the quote:

But Blu-ray, backed by Sony and a majority of Hollywood studios, got a big boost when Sony introduced its PlayStation 3 game console, which comes standard with a Blu-ray drive. Counting those machines, there are more Blu-ray players out there.

http://www.hop.com/

 

[The Main Event]

And you forgot the rest of the quote:

http://www.hop.com/

Not important enough.

 

[Gary Whitta]

It can't be thrown in with standalone numbers, because:

1. It is NOT a standalone

2. There is no real way to determine how many Ps3 users are buying movies, though we know most people who own a Ps3 don't even know what Blu Ray is

3. A Ps3 purchase is simply not a vote in the format wars, necessarily, while buying a standalone is a firm vote towards an HD optical disc format.

And yet they seem to be enough to turn a 60/40 HD/BD player split into 40/60 software sales. That's a pretty compelling sector of the market right there.

 

[yacobod]

It can't be thrown in with standalone numbers, because:

1. It is NOT a standalone

2. There is no real way to determine how many Ps3 users are buying movies, though we know most people who own a Ps3 don't even know what Blu Ray is

3. A Ps3 purchase is simply not a vote in the format wars, necessarily, while buying a standalone is a firm vote towards an HD optical disc format.

i bought a ps3 about a month ago, it's currently being used as a standalone bluray player, i have 14 brds

i primarily bought it as a blu ray player, with the bonus that there will be some games i will want to play in the future

300/hot fuzz/shaun of the dead are prolly the last 2 hd-dvds i will buy until bourne ultimatum, the rest of my hd purchases will be going bluray

the xbox360 is my gaming console of choice

i think there are prolly a lot of ppl who are in the same boat as me

 

[jjasper]

My PS3 is a blu ray player first, video game system second.

 

[Gary Whitta]

My PS3 is a blu ray player first, video game system second.

True dat! In fact for me it's not a videogame system at all, at least not yet.

 

[Gary Whitta]

i bought a ps3 about a month ago, it's currently being used as a standalone bluray player, i have 14 brds

i primarily bought it as a blu ray player, with the bonus that there will be some games i will want to play in the future

300/hot fuzz/shaun of the dead are prolly the last 2 hd-dvds i will buy until bourne ultimatum, the rest of my hd purchases will be going bluray

the xbox360 is my gaming console of choice

i think there are prolly a lot of ppl who are in the same boat as me

Ditto all of the above.

 

[VanMardigan]

Nobody's debating the impact of the Ps3. It's obvious. However, because it is not a standalone and there is no way to segregate the data on Ps3 owners in respect to who buys movies and who doesn't, it's just not practical to include it when talking about dedicated players. You either count EVERY Ps3 (not practical given what little we know of its Blu Ray usage statistics), or not count it at all (not a great solution because of its obvious impact). Another option would be to just make up a number in terms of how many Ps3's are used as BR players.

So you see, there is no real solution to the Ps3 as a BR player conundrum. Obviously, Toshiba would prefer that it not be counted because of the fact that most people who buy a Ps3 have no interest in either format. Sony would like to count it despite the fact that they can't certify how many people are buying their console and then BR software. Meanwhile, the real number of Ps3 BR users is not available to any of us. Until it is, the only certainty in the format war is those people who buy a player specifically for HD optical disc software playback (standalones).

edit: Anecdotal evidence aside yacobod, most Ps3 owners do not use their Ps3 as BR players. I'm not sure why you bothered to type all that out, since it's obvious that we in this thread (and the gaf gaming side) do not represent the mainstream.

 

[msdstc]

My PS3 is a blu ray player first, video game system second.

it was different for me at first... I bought it for games, but now that there's a drought of games it's truly ONLY a bluray player.

To be honest, the main reason it's a bluray player first now, is because I never realized that bluray was truly that much better than DVD, until I played black hawk down on the TV for myself, it blew me away. Now I only have 6 movies, but I bought 2 in the last week, and next week will be picking up the lookout, and maybe 300.

 

[VanMardigan]

It's hard to convey the benefits of HD movies. You really have to experience it. My wife didn't understand why I would spend money on the HD DVD add-on, and now she loves watching HD movies (we don't rent or buy any SD movies that are available in HD). My in-laws here in Chicago were equally skeptical about HD movies, and now they all love it when I pop in an HD movie.

 

[thaivo]

My PS3 is a blu ray player first, video game system second.

I think this is true of quite a few people. However, I also think that the PS3 still is viewed by the majority of consumers as a game system, and that stigma makes it ultimately less desirable by the mainstream as the primary movie player in the household.

That and the PS3 is huge, as well as that IMO it's not the most attractive component in the world.

jjasper, just saw that you are selling your player and movies. Are you abandoning the HD-DVD front?

 

[Raistlin]

I think this is true of quite a few people. However, I also think that the PS3 still is viewed by the majority of consumers as a game system, and that stigma makes it ultimately less desirable by the mainstream as the primary movie player in the household.

That really isn't a problem though, since standalones are/will be cheaper later this year.

Much of the hardcore enthusiests accepted it just fine as a player (look at AVS), so 'its work' is done to a certain extent.

 

[jjasper]

I think this is true of quite a few people. However, I also think that the PS3 still is viewed by the majority of consumers as a game system, and that stigma makes it ultimately less desirable by the mainstream as the primary movie player in the household.

That and the PS3 is huge, as well as that IMO it's not the most attractive component in the world.

jjasper, just saw that you are selling your player and movies. Are you abandoning the HD-DVD front?

Not as of right now, I am selling my current player so I can get one of the newer versions, if I sell mine now instead of waiting I will get more money for it. Well that's the plan at least unless something happens between now and then.

I personally think the PS3 looks really nice, but it is huge and heavy too.

 

[rkenshin]

Not as of right now, I am selling my current player so I can get one of the newer versions, if I sell mine now instead of waiting I will get more money for it. Well that's the plan at least unless something happens between now and then.

I personally think the PS3 looks really nice, but it is huge and heavy too.

Would you rather have it come with a powerbrick and be smaller?

 

[Jim]

The Warriors on the other hand looks amazing given how old of a movie it is. The colors are really vibrant, and the picture quality is pretty much perfect. Really glad I purchased this again since I already own the DVD. Classic movie everyone should check out.

I was really impressed with The Warriors (Netflixed the BD version) as it's definitely the "oldest" movies I've personally seen a HD transfer of, and was surprised at how nice it turned out. I love movies set in old school NYC.

 

[Klotera]

edit: Anecdotal evidence aside yacobod, most Ps3 owners do not use their Ps3 as BR players. I'm not sure why you bothered to type all that out, since it's obvious that we in this thread (and the gaf gaming side) do not represent the mainstream.

High-def format owners in general do not represent the mainstream at this point in time. Just as most PS3 owners aren't using them for BR, a large chunk of HDTV owners aren't pumping HD content into them and clearly a large majority of them aren't using a high-def disc format. However, these HDTV owners represent a potential market that companies can tap into. As such, PS3 owners, should they choose to buy into the high-def disc wave, are all set as a market to tap into - they need no new equipment to buy.

 

[thaivo]

That really isn't a problem though, since standalones are/will be cheaper later this year.

Much of the hardcore enthusiests accepted it just fine as a player (look at AVS), so 'its work' is done to a certain extent.

It'll be nice if BD players drop in price, as that will also lead to HD-DVD player price drops as well, which ultimately means quicker acceptance of HDM, and more titles for all of us.

I have to say though that AVS people are not mainstream, but some of them are actually more hardcore than most of us in NeoGAF. I know that my wife was much more accepting of the HD-D2 than if I had come home with a PS3. She would have asked me if we needed another game system (I have a Wii, Gamecube, Xbox, Dreamcast, etc., all hooked up to my TV) . What is shocking is that the Dreamcast has the best image quality, due to the VGA connection, Zero Gunners looks godly.

Not as of right now, I am selling my current player so I can get one of the newer versions, if I sell mine now instead of waiting I will get more money for it. Well that's the plan at least unless something happens between now and then.

I personally think the PS3 looks really nice, but it is huge and heavy too.

I thought you were going along those lines, but then saw that you were selling your discs as well. I'm relieved.

I was actually thinking of doing something similar, but then I realized that the model I would most likely purchase would be the A3, which isn't that much of an upgrade. The only upgrade I could envision would be that it uses less of a PC backbone, and boots up quicker.

About the PS3 design. It's all subjective I suppose. For some reason the curved top of the PS3 and the Spiderman font rubs me the wrong way. It's better than the 360 design. Although it is practically just a external drive-like design, I like the Wii the best lof the newer systems.

 

[Days like these...]

However, I also think that the PS3 still is viewed by the majority of consumers as a game system, and that stigma makes it ultimately less desirable by the mainstream as the primary movie player in the household.

Thaivo has a very good point. Good luck convincing your mom and dad to buy a ps triple to watch movies on. Now here's a little food for thought think of all your non gaming family and friends how many of them own a ps2 as their dvd player? Exactly, very few if any. I see the same thing happening with the ps triple.
I know blu ray supporter say it wont matter cause cheaper players are coming but even at $399 that's stil gonna be a hard sale to mainstream consumers. Remember GAF does not equal your avg. consumer.

 

[Akala]

Now here's a little food for thought think of all your non gaming family and friends how many of them own a ps2 as their dvd player? Exactly, very few if any.

When PS2 first came out, a lot of people used it as their primary DVD player. In fact, I still know people whose only dvd player is their PS2.

/edit**by non-gaming I mean people whose only game collections are EA sports iterations. Almost everyone I know games at least a little bit, the only ones that don't (older people) really haven't even adopted DVD yet. :lol

 

[kaching]

3. A Ps3 purchase is simply not a vote in the format wars, necessarily, while buying a standalone is a firm vote towards an HD optical disc format.

Anyone who bought "standalone" BD or HDDVD players also bought a CD player and upscaling DVD player. Now, the likelihood that they would have bought one of these HD players expressly and primarily for that purpose is nil but the possibility that that's primarily what they ended up using it for is more likely, because it's quite possible that the paltry catalogs for either format haven't developed the way early buyers hoped, forcing them to continue to use the BD/HDDVD player they bought more as an expensive DVD player than for true HD movies. As such, the purchase of a standalone BD/HDDVD player is not a guarantee of a "firm vote" towards one of the HD formats either.

 

[Oni Jazar]

Numbers are in:

Weekly 62:38
YTD 66:34
SI 60:40

1. 300 BD                         100.00    164107
2. 300 HD                          52.34     85893 
3. HotFuzz HD                       9.67     15893
4. Shooter BD                       5.05      8287
5. Shooter HD                       2.95      4841
6. The Bourne Identity              2.42      3971
7. PE BD                            1.97      3233
8. Shaun of the Dead HD             1.85      3036
9. Imax : Blue Planet BD            1.49      2445
10. Casino Royale BD                1.47      2412

 

[VanMardigan]

Anyone who bought "standalone" BD or HDDVD players also bought a CD player and upscaling DVD player. Now, the likelihood that they would have bought one of these HD players expressly and primarily for that purpose is nil but the possibility that that's primarily what they ended up using it for is more likely, because it's quite possible that the paltry catalogs for either format haven't developed the way early buyers hoped, forcing them to continue to use the BD/HDDVD player they bought more as an expensive DVD player than for true HD movies. As such, the purchase of a standalone BD/HDDVD player is not a guarantee of a "firm vote" towards one of the HD formats either.

Oh boy, that was terrible. You can get away with such an illogical argument if we were talking about $50 dvd players, maybe.

edit:
62/38

Hey, that's improvement.

 

[mollipen]

So, what's the opinion on Bill Hunt's post on The Digital Bits from yesterday? Are we allowed to finally believe that he's supporting Blu-ray because he thinks it's the best choice, or are we still supposed to go along with the idea that he's a paid off stooge, and that post was a total lie?

I just don't know how I'm supposed to now feel about this until certain members of this thread chime in, so hopefully they'll tell me what to believe soon.

 

[Petrarca]

Numbers are in:

Weekly 62:38
YTD 66:34
SI 60:40

HD-DVD is making a comeback

 

[VanMardigan]

Everytime I look at the sales numbers, I can't help but be stunned by just how small this market is. 2k units to get in the top 10? Wow.

Still, it was a good week overall for HD media. Strong titles on HD DVD led to a closer-than-usual weekly ratio and plenty of titles in the Top Ten, and BD had a monster showing for 300.

 

[kaching]

Oh boy, that was terrible. You can get away with such an illogical argument if we were talking about $50 dvd players, maybe.

Oh, right, because everyone who buys $500 luxury products must be in the same spending bracket as you and considers this A LOT OF MONEY THAT THEY WOULD NEVER SPEND LIGHTLY.

The argument is sound, your perspective is narrow. If PS3 as BD players get ruled out, then so too should any standalone device that could conceivably be used for something else while the buyer waits for the content market to evolve. Looking at the latest numbers, if it weren't for 300 being released, it doesn't look like most HDDVD *or* BD player owners would be using those players properly right now.

 

[VanMardigan]

Oh, right, because everyone who buys $500 luxury products must be in the same spending bracket as you and considers this A LOT OF MONEY THAT THEY WOULD NEVER SPEND LIGHTLY.

The argument is sound, your perspective is narrow. If PS3 as BD players get ruled out, then so too should any standalone device that could conceivably be used for something else while the buyer waits for the content market to evolve. Looking at the latest numbers, if it weren't for 300 being released, it doesn't look like most HDDVD *or* BD player owners would be using those players properly right now.

No, the argument is anything BUT sound. For example, replace the HD standalones with consoles. You're basically saying that if I bought a 360, I haven't made a "firm" vote for that platform. It just doesn't make sense. Nobody is ruling out Ps3 as a BD player, and since that's your false premise, you make wild leaps of logic to extend that into standalones. The Ps3 gets ruled out as a standalone, NOT as a BR player, because its BR usage isn't quantifiable right now. The closest statistic we have is that a full 60% of Ps3 owners don't even know about BR playback. So you can imagine how troublesome it would be to include the Ps3 as a "firm" vote for Blu Ray as a format. You just can't extent that fact into the standalone realm, where EVERY player is used to play HD optical media, whether full time or part time.

 

[DarkJediKnight]

Numbers are in:

Weekly 62:38
YTD 66:34
SI 60:40

1. 300 BD                         100.00    164107
2. 300 HD                          52.34     85893 
3. HotFuzz HD                       9.67     15893
4. Shooter BD                       5.05      8287
5. Shooter HD                       2.95      4841
6. The Bourne Identity              2.42      3971
7. PE BD                            1.97      3233
8. Shaun of the Dead HD             1.85      3036
9. Imax : Blue Planet BD            1.49      2445
10. Casino Royale BD                1.47      2412

So! Who wants a free Spiderman Trilogy? :lol :lol :lol :lol

Pretty good numbers for Hotfuzz. That might be the 1st Universal title that sold more than 10k on opening week.

 

[djkimothy]

So! Who wants a free Spiderman Trilogy? :lol :lol :lol :lol

I was still hoping.

 

[VanMardigan]

So! Who wants a free Spiderman Trilogy? :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Petrarca]

So, what's the opinion on Bill Hunt's post on The Digital Bits from yesterday? Are we allowed to finally believe that he's supporting Blu-ray because he thinks it's the best choice, or are we still supposed to go along with the idea that he's a paid off stooge, and that post was a total lie?

I just don't know how I'm supposed to now feel about this until certain members of this thread chime in, so hopefully they'll tell me what to believe soon.

Bill Hunt is the sound of common-sense.

If you're a movie buff, you would want this format war to end ASAP. Now in order to do that we need to cheer for the winning team, so that the losing one dies quickly. In this case blu-ray is winning, HD-DVD is losing, so go buy BD player now

 

[The Main Event]

So! Who wants a free Spiderman Trilogy? :lol :lol :lol :lol

Me?

 

[Petrarca]

Numbers are in:

Weekly 62:38
YTD 66:34
SI 60:40

1. 300 BD                         100.00    164107
2. 300 HD                          52.34     85893 
3. HotFuzz HD                       9.67     15893
4. Shooter BD                       5.05      8287
5. Shooter HD                       2.95      4841
6. The Bourne Identity              2.42      3971
7. PE BD                            1.97      3233
8. Shaun of the Dead HD             1.85      3036
9. Imax : Blue Planet BD            1.49      2445
10. Casino Royale BD                1.47      2412

phew, thank goodness for 300, otherwise this would've been the 1st week in all year HD beating BD


---> lucky number 8888

 

[thaivo]

So! Who wants a free Spiderman Trilogy? :lol :lol :lol :lol

Pretty good numbers for Hotfuzz. That might be the 1st Universal title that sold more than 10k on opening week.

300 HD did pretty good all things considered.

Wow though... I though Hot Fuzz would do better than ~10% of 300 BD... jeez.

phew, thank goodness for 300, otherwise this would've been the 1st week in all year HD beating BD

That would have been an interesting turn of events.

 

[Petrarca]

.

 

[DarkJediKnight]

phew, thank goodness for 300, otherwise this would've been the 1st week in all year HD beating BD


---> lucky number 8888

Aug 28 is HD DVD's last and only chance left to take 1 week from Blu-ray. After that, the onslaught begins.

 

[thaivo]

Aug 28 is HD DVD's last and only chance left to take 1 week from Blu-ray. After that, the onslaught begins.

Or at least until HD-DVD players hit mainstream prices ~$100 - 150...

 

[DarkJediKnight]

300 HD did pretty good all things considered.

I'll be honest with you, when I offered up my bet, I expected 300 numbers to be 60:40 Blu-ray. The fact that it's even higher despite the HD DVD version having extra goodies was a surprise to me. And I don't think anyone expected anything more than 75k for Blu-ray, let alone 160k+. FOr HD DVD, I expected 50k. So both numbers exceeded my predictions.

 

[DarkJediKnight]

Or at least until HD-DVD players hit mainstream prices ~$100 - 150...

The mainstream price was $199. It's already at $199. The cheapest Blu-ray player is still $499, unless you're buying refurbished 1st gen Samsungs. There's no excuse for HD DVD here.

 

[Oni Jazar]

Aug 28 is HD DVD's last and only chance left to take 1 week from Blu-ray. After that, the onslaught begins.

Actually Wild Hogs comes out on Blu-ray next week and pulled in 168Million in box office sales.

 

[rkenshin]

I thought the majority of consumers don't care for extras hence why DVD releases are in two versions nowadays (with/without the extras disc)

 

[thaivo]

I'll be honest with you, when I offered up my bet, I expected 300 numbers to be 60:40 Blu-ray. The fact that it's even higher despite the HD DVD version having extra goodies was a surprise to me. And I don't think anyone expected anything more than 75k for Blu-ray, let alone 160k+. FOr HD DVD, I expected 50k. So both numbers exceeded my predictions.

Agreed.

I think something that also needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that the HD-DVD version was priced $5 more than the BD version, which likely meant a bit more profit per unit for WB.

If I had the choice between BD and HD-DVD, I think I still would have bought the HD version, as the combo format has always been more of a plus for me than a negative. No disc art? Yeh, but I don't buy discs to look at the discs. What matters is what's on the screen.

 

[kaching]

You're basically saying that if I bought a 360, I haven't made a "firm" vote for that platform. It just doesn't make sense.

That's because you're trying to make the assumption that everyone's purchase is logical in that they only buy what they intend to use for the purposes it's primarily set out for and nothing changes after the purchase. That's the only way these stats work, after all.

But there's plenty of people who talk about their devices "collecting dust" as irksome as it is to read. Yes, devices that cost hundreds of dollars, collecting dust. People often buy speculatively, esp. when a product is new, and in a lot of cases expectations and hopes just don't pan out. Forget about the people who might be trying to make the best of it by using the alternate features of these HD players, what about the people who just aren't using them at all because they're disillusioned by the state of available content, having hoped for more?

Nobody is ruling out Ps3 as a BD player, and since that's your false premise,

Say what? Where do I say such a thing? Ridiculous - you're putting words in my mouth.

The Ps3 gets ruled out as a standalone, NOT as a BR player, because its BR usage isn't quantifiable right now.

Neither is the usage of *any* player, if you want to be accurate about it. This distinction about standalones as if they guarantee anything is the logical fallacy.

 

[thaivo]

The mainstream price was $199. It's already at $199. The cheapest Blu-ray player is still $499, unless you're buying refurbished 1st gen Samsungs. There's no excuse for HD DVD here.

$199 is available only through special offers, as you are aware, the present MSRP is $299. $199 is only available through the occasional sale as of now.

However, I believe that such sales are swelling the HD-DVD numbers every day.... of course, this is counteracted by all of the people now dropping $$ down for a 60 gig PS3. But the fact that the numbers are still around 60:40 after the PS3 price drop shows that the lower prices are allowing HD to hold it's current position. Further price drops can only help.

Then there are the questions of:
What happens when the 60gig runs out and PS3 goes back to $599?
What happens when people actually have compelling software to buy on the PS3?
What happens when HD-DVD players are $199 MSRP, and found for $150 retail.

These factors make me believe that the HDM format war, and this thread, will be still going well beyond the start of 2008.

 

[AgentOtaku]

I thought the majority of consumers don't care for extras hence why DVD releases are in two versions nowadays (with/without the extras disc)

I VERY strongly believe this as well....the average "dude" I work with or am around, I mention it and their response more than 95 percent of the time is how they don't care about the extras.....

...I think people will buy the 2-disc version because its sometimes more expensive and appears to be a "better value" when they're right beside each other.....but as far as a double dip 2-disc sku released months latter...I really don't think those sell well at all on average...

...people more or less just want the movie the majority of the time on the day it comes out....