I think you're being overly optamistic about the kind of discounts Wal-Mart is going to be offering on these players. Per their website, the
Toshiba HD-A2 retails for it's MSRP of $299 and the
Sony BDP-S300 is $488, saving you a big twelve bucks off the MSRP. I'm not sure why you'd expect Wal-Mart to offer the cheapest player on the market at an everyday price of 25% off just because that's how they retail most of their products. It doesn't need to be on sale to sell at that price.
If you want to find a discount, I'm guessing it'll be at Amazon, where they're currently
selling the Toshiba HD-A2 for $254, or 15% off the MSRP. Using that as our guideline, I'd guess the best online sale price for a $200 HD-DVD player would be $170, with a corresponding budget BD player running the current HD-A2 sale price of $254.
FnordChan