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[captive]

looking at those charts i think SRG01's theory of smaller titles floating blu-ray is valid. When Blu-ray had big releases that had the virtually the same ratio that Knocked up had which was 100 to 25 to the next closest title, the total ratio was closer to 70:30 in favor of blu-ray.

 

[VanMardigan]

So I hope we're getting actual sales numbers for Knocked Up like we did for 300. That's a very big disparity between 1 and 2.

I'll be dissapointed if HDDVD doesn't take a week with either one of them.

On the contrary, you'll be elated if that happens.

Great week numbers too, the last time HD DVD had a similar week was back in April/May.

Wasn't it 55/45 like 3 weeks ago or so?

 

[SRG01]

Hi-Def Sales Impressions, Oct 5:


Top 10 spread:

Analysis and Impressions:

- There may be something wrong with the Nielsen numbers reported. Counting only the top 10 titles, HD-DVD takes the week by 57:43. Comparing it to the Nielsen numbers of 54:46 in favor of BD, that means titles out of the top 10 push the week in Blu-Ray's favor by over 10 percent. HUH?
- By itself, Knocked Up takes 44% of the top 10!
- Casino Royale is still in the Top 10. :lol

 

[RaidenZR]

Hi-Def Sales Impressions, Oct 5:


Top 10 spread:

Analysis and Impressions:

- There may be something wrong with the Nielsen numbers reported. Counting only the top 10 titles, HD-DVD takes the week by 57:43. Comparing it to the Nielsen numbers of 54:46 in favor of BD, that means titles out of the top 10 push the week in Blu-Ray's favor by over 10 percent. HUH?
- By itself, Knocked Up takes 44% of the top 10!
- Casino Royale is still in the Top 10. :lol

WTF? That does sound wrong. Are these numbers premature today?

 

[VanMardigan]

There may be something wrong with the Nielsen numbers reported. Counting only the top 10 titles, HD-DVD takes the week by 57:43. Comparing it to the Nielsen numbers of 54:46 in favor of BD, that means titles out of the top 10 push the week in Blu-Ray's favor by over 10 percent. HUH?

I think what's wrong is your (and so many other people's) perception of the size of the HD disc market right now. And I'm not picking on you. It's frickin tiny. Miniscule. This is why all the analysts keep talking about a two format future. You can't compare these numbers the way you would console game sales or anything on a larger scale. Knocked up was number 1? Well, it probably did 30k or so and considering the DVD sold 3.5 million, that's just miniscule.

Really makes you wonder why both Sony and Toshiba don't just re-brand both formats into one and sell dual format players under that banner. There's still time. Remember last week? These were the alleged numbers:

Troy: Director's Cut BD - 3822
300 BD - 3770
The Condemned - 3015
We are Marshall HD - 2363
We are Marshall BD - 1992
300 HD - 1876
PE BD - 1694
PE HD- 1332
Smallville: The Complete Sixth Season HD - 1248
Casino Royale - 1176
Troy: Director's Cut HD - 1182
Batman Begins - 925
Smallville: The Complete Sixth Season BD - 652

Now if that doesn't slap in you in the face in terms of how staggeringly small this market still is, and why its still WIDE OPEN, nothing else will.

 

[captive]

(neutral) VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
(Today, 12:43 PM)
Reply | Quote

nice :lol

 

[RaidenZR]

Now if that doesn't slap in you in the face in terms of how staggeringly small this market still is, and why its still WIDE OPEN, nothing else will.

True. And with $5-$9 DVD's at Wal-Mart and Target, it's got a long way to go. No one gives a shit about HD right now.

 

[SRG01]

Oh, I have no problem in accepting that the HD market is tiny.

The problem is the following: It is a statistical difference of over 10% and the lowest selling title this week was at 8% of Knocked Up. Even by unrealistically padding 5 BD titles (no HDDVD) all at 7%, we are still at about 5% away. Realistically, most of these non-top10 titles will be much lower than the 7-8%.

I would expect something on the order of 3-4% difference. 10% is a statistical anomaly indicating either missing data and/or a mistake in the chart.

I would say that Nielsen mistakenly forgot to switch their colors around in the pie chart.

 

[captive]

True. And with $5-$9 DVD's at Wal-Mart and Target, it's got a long way to go. No one gives a shit about HD right now.

Two formats, not wanting to buy next betamax so on and so forth etc etc.

 

[SRG01]

PS. Anyone think that comedies are front-loaded? For some reason, I'm thinking that (cue voice) EPIC MOVIES (uncue voice) have longer staying power than their non-epic counterparts. I'm totally expecting the future releases of TF and BU to take multiple weeks from BD.

 

[RaidenZR]

Two formats, not wanting to buy next betamax so on and so forth etc etc.

I know I wasn't stating anything new, but when you walk by one of those racks at those stores it dawns on you how ridiculously hard it's going to be for these formats as they even approach the dawning of mainstream digital distribution.

That said, I have yet to pay over $16 for any Blu-Ray title I do own.

 

[VanMardigan]

I would say that Nielsen mistakenly forgot to switch their colors around in the pie chart.

So you are suggesting that HD DVD won a week for the first time this year? :0

Personally, I doubt it. Plus, the YTD numbers didn't even flinch, like they did the last time HD DVD closed in on 50%.

 

[captive]

PS. Anyone think that comedies are front-loaded? For some reason, I'm thinking that (cue voice) EPIC MOVIES (uncue voice) have longer staying power than their non-epic counterparts. I'm totally expecting the future releases of TF and BU to take multiple weeks from BD.

At first i thought you were talking about soundstage and i was like well duh they are comedies.
But now i get what you mean, i think it really just depends on the movie. But what are TF? and BU? *scratch head*

 

[SRG01]

So you are suggesting that HD DVD won a week for the first time this year? :0

Personally, I doubt it. Plus, the YTD numbers didn't even flinch, like they did the last time HD DVD closed in on 50%.

I thought it won one a month or so ago?

 

[SRG01]

At first i thought you were talking about soundstage and i was like well duh they are comedies.
But now i get what you mean, i think it really just depends on the movie. But what are TF? and BU? *scratch head*

Transformers and Bourne Ultimatum.

 

[Oni Jazar]

The people at AVS are estimating that Knocked Up sold in the neighborhood of 15k units (based on extrapolated sales from last week).

 

[captive]

mmmm donut

Transformers and Bourne Ultimatum.

Nah they will both be lucky to take a week, maybe if they released in summer where 300 was just dominating everything because nothing of note came out, but with all the big blockbusters coming out it will be unlikely.

 

[StoOgE]

BRD winning for the week with small numbers isnt hard to understand. If Disc sales of HDM were around 100K (they probably werent even this high) and the top 10 accounts for a third of all sales, the non top 10 percent would mean BRD would have to sell 71% more discs in the "non top 10 category" than HDDVD.. so not even two for one. If the top 10 in sales are roughly 50% of all sales, BRD catelog titles would have to sell about 2 for 1 than older HDDVD titles.

This sounds like alot, but if there were 100K disc sales, that equivellent of about 12K discs. If disc sales are closer to 70-80K, this number is even smaller.

 

[VanMardigan]

The people at AVS are estimating that Knocked Up sold in the neighborhood of 15k units (based on extrapolated sales from last week).

I swear, it's like the entire population of HD disc consumers are on the message boards arguing. I always shudder at how small this population is, EVEN WITH millions of Ps3 owners out there. The attach rate there is alarmingly low.

 

[RaidenZR]

I swear, it's like the entire population of HD disc consumers are on the message boards arguing. I always shudder at how small this population is, EVEN WITH millions of Ps3 owners out there. The attach rate there is alarmingly low.

Let's not forget the selection of titles is pretty slim as well. I'd be buying loads more movies if there was more available that appealed to my tastes. And right now the choices that the studios are making seems fairly arbitrary, as far as catalog releases go. They're still feeling out the market and identifying who the adopters are at this early stage in the game. The compression time and regional studio issues seem to be causing a lot of delays, too. It's just not as cleanly executed as I think we'd all hope it to be.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

And made worse with an increase in uncertainty, and a very lackluster Summer for releases.

Seriously, if it weren;t for 300, nothing big would have come out all Summer.

Q4 ought to liven things up a lot.

 

[StoOgE]

I swear, it's like the entire population of HD disc consumers are on the message boards arguing. I always shudder at how small this population is, EVEN WITH millions of Ps3 owners out there. The attach rate there is alarmingly low.

I think Sony did a poor job marketing this aspect of the PS3. Sure forumers knew about it, but I dont think most people did. My boss bought a PS3 about a month ago and I had to tell him he could buy HD media for it.

Most people buy a game console for it being a game console and the thought would never cross their mind that it has some cool new movie player they may have never heard of built in.

Sony is doing a much better job recently of this. Extending the 5 free movie deal to PS3 was a great move, because now people cant help but notice it plays these new movies, because they get them for free (assuming the sales person tells them). Packing Spidey 3 in will be even smarter because then they see the box in their PS3 case.

This happened with the first batch of PS3s but early adopters were more likely to know about it from day 1.

Also, if I can buy a PS3 for 400 bucks with 5 free movies its going to be hard to resist. The lack of exclusive games that I just *have to have* right now will probably be my saving grace. Once MGS3 hits its gonna be hard to stay away.

 

[widgetraf]

Is MS going to counter by offering a new 5 free HD DVD deal? I was thinking of getting the attachment but I want 5 free HD DVDs.

 

[StoOgE]

Is MS going to counter by offering a new 5 free HD DVD deal? I was thinking of getting the attachment but I want 5 free HD DVDs.

Yes, the old one just expired, and the new one should be launching pretty quickly. There were some leaked images of the new offer out there on the interwebs a while back.

Amazon just had a deal for buy 1 get 8 free for 160 bucks or something absolutely crazy like that.

 

[The Main Event]

Wasn't it 55/45 like 3 weeks ago or so?

Oh forgot about that week. The chart I was looking for didn't include the month of September.

 

[rc213]

I think Sony did a poor job marketing this aspect of the PS3. Sure forumers knew about it, but I dont think most people did. My boss bought a PS3 about a month ago and I had to tell him he could buy HD media for it.

Most people buy a game console for it being a game console and the thought would never cross their mind that it has some cool new movie player they may have never heard of built in.

Sony is doing a much better job recently of this. Extending the 5 free movie deal to PS3 was a great move, because now people cant help but notice it plays these new movies, because they get them for free (assuming the sales person tells them). Packing Spidey 3 in will be even smarter because then they see the box in their PS3 case.

This happened with the first batch of PS3s but early adopters were more likely to know about it from day 1.

Also, if I can buy a PS3 for 400 bucks with 5 free movies its going to be hard to resist. The lack of exclusive games that I just *have to have* right now will probably be my saving grace. Once MGS3 hits its gonna be hard to stay away.

QFT, I always found it puzzling as to why Sony stopped packing in a movie with the PS3. Nothing helps promote somethings new than getting a taste of it for free. Even a Blu-Ray packed with Game Demos, Game Trailers and Movie Trailers in HD would have helped a bit.

 

[VanMardigan]

Amazon's deal was 8 movies with the add-on for $179. That was pretty much unbeatable right there.

Best Buy has a 9 free movie deal with the A30, but it's currently backordered (as are a ton of their HD DVD's).



Value Electronics has a 10 free movie deal, but two of those movies are the crappy HDScape titles.

 

[The Main Event]

Is MS going to counter by offering a new 5 free HD DVD deal? I was thinking of getting the attachment but I want 5 free HD DVDs.

They are adding 300 (HD Combo format) on top of King Kong with the purchase of the 360 HD DVD player. The MS site also updated their 5 free movies deal. The new promotion is running from October 1st to February 28th 2008 (for both Toshiba and 360 HD players).

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/hardware/x/xbox360hddvdplayer/hddvdnow/default.htm

 

[SRG01]

BRD winning for the week with small numbers isnt hard to understand. If Disc sales of HDM were around 100K (they probably werent even this high) and the top 10 accounts for a third of all sales, the non top 10 percent would mean BRD would have to sell 71% more discs in the "non top 10 category" than HDDVD.. so not even two for one. If the top 10 in sales are roughly 50% of all sales, BRD catelog titles would have to sell about 2 for 1 than older HDDVD titles.

This sounds like alot, but if there were 100K disc sales, that equivellent of about 12K discs. If disc sales are closer to 70-80K, this number is even smaller.

Like I said above, the lowest title in the top 10 was 8% of Knocked Up's sales. Unless all of the non-top10 titles magically held a number close to 8 percent, it would take an astronomical amount of titles to do this.

 

[SRG01]

Fun fact: These numbers closely fit a 1/x curve! :lol

Spoiler

I'm such a nerd

 

[VanMardigan]

Fun fact: These numbers closely fit a 1/x curve! :lol

Spoiler

I'm such a nerd

What does that mean? [face_dumb]

 

[SRG01]

It means that if you plot the numbers on an x-y plot, you can predict the numbers quite reasonably with an appropriate 1/x curve.

While the first three numbers could use more work (first number is off by a lot), everything else in the top 10 has amazing accuracy. Then again, it's pretty much linear after the top 3 so... :lol

 

[DarkJediKnight]

Knocked up sold only 15000 copies and it still decimated the others on the list! :lol

I find it hard to believe that sales are SO weak right now on both formats. The studios are getting a taste of their own medicine. They all need to get together and decide to support ONE format. I don't care which. Just do it. Even people like me who are hardcore HD media buyers have pretty much tuned it out and only buying selective titles. That I think speaks volumes.

 

[ManaByte]

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/s..._Spielberg_Titles_in_HD_DVD_Presentation/1044

The inclusion of several classic Steven Spielberg titles in an HD DVD presentation given by Universal Studios Japan got tongues wagging online Friday.

A screenshot from the presentation, which includes mention of 'Jaws,' 'E.T.' and 'Jurassic Park' among other high-profile Universal titles began appearing online shortly after it was delivered at the CEATAC conference this week in Japan.

Although the context of the slide in question was unclear, the mere image of Spielberg tiles on a page wrapped by the "Look and Sound of Perfect" graphics common to all of Universal's HD DVD discs was enough to whip fans into a near-frenzy on our own forums and elsewhere online.

As longtime readers of this site know, Spielberg has had a rocky relationship with the HD DVD format in the past.

Back in February, the official HD DVD Promotions Group (of which Universal is a member) issued a public apology to the director after listing several of his titles in a "Coming Soon" list that was apparently never approved by the director. Then, August's stunner of a press release announcing Paramount/DreamWorks jump to HD DVD exclusivity included a conspicuous one line carve-out, stating that Spielberg's DreamWorks films would be exempt from the terms of the HD DVD exclusivity agreement.

Spielberg himself has gone on record (via his publicist) as being a "big supporter of Blu-ray," and the only Spielberg-directed title currently set for next-gen release is 'Close Encounters of the Third Kind,' which is due on Blu-ray exclusively from Sony on November 13.

So, does Universal Japan know something we don't? Despite Spielberg's apparent preference for Blu-ray, could HD DVD releases of the director's earlier titles in fact be in the works? With no official word from the director or studio, your guess is as good as ours. Stay tuned...

 

[Xater]

If I remeber the whole Spielberg thing correctly they would have to release those titles on Blu-ray too right?

 

[Costanza]

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/s..._Spielberg_Titles_in_HD_DVD_Presentation/1044

HOLY SHIT BTTF

 

[ManaByte]

If I remeber the whole Spielberg thing correctly they would have to release those titles on Blu-ray too right?

Universal doesn't make Blu-Ray discs, and never has.

 

[Xater]

Universal doesn't make Blu-Ray discs, and never has.

Oh really? Which wonderful insight you have.. *rolleyes*

 

[thaivo]

Oh really? Which wonderful insight you have.. *rolleyes*

Yes, "Which" wonderful insight he has, especially because he knows the difference between Paramount and Universal...

Hope the ad is more than just bluster, and BTTF comes out. I loved those movies.

 

[NekoFever]

HOLY SHIT BTTF

That one could happen as well!

I'd probably buy all of those if they came out. Well...maybe not Casper.

 

[Cosmic Bus]

I'm swooning at the posibility of Babe on HD. I actually... don't really care about the others.

 

[Oni Jazar]

If I remeber the whole Spielberg thing correctly they would have to release those titles on Blu-ray too right?

You're thinking of the Paramount/Dreamworks agreement, but there was a time where Jaws and other Spielberg titles were announced for HD DVD and Spielberg slapped that announcement down fast.

 

[The Main Event]

You're thinking of the Paramount/Dreamworks agreement, but there was a time where Jaws and other Spielberg titles were announced for HD DVD and Spielberg slapped that announcement down fast.

Let's see what he'll say about that Japanese presentation.

 

[rc213]

Unless release dates were shown along with that slide I doubt It will get a response, Since that is what got Spielberg's feathers ruffled.

Spoiler

Gimme BTTF & JP1 PLZ!!!

 

[VanMardigan]

*swoons*

 

[TAJ]

Let's not forget the selection of titles is pretty slim as well. I'd be buying loads more movies if there was more available that appealed to my tastes.

You have posts like this, (I want as many titles as possible, too) and then you have people complaining that there are too many catalog releases.
But one man's trash is another man's treasure. I have just one relative who buys high-def movies. (he has just over 50 so far) You know what movie got him to get off the fence? Not a recent hit. Dune ... the 1984 David Lynch one.

 

[TAJ]

*swoons*

OMG, Jaws. I came.

 

[TAJ]

And made worse with an increase in uncertainty

Uncertainty? I wish people were uncertain. That would mean that they were actually aware. The number of people who have seen the formats and actually knew what they were looking at is barely bigger than the installed base.

 

[CajoleJuice]

So this "war" isn't going to be over anytime soon, right?

 

[TAJ]

So this "war" isn't going to be over anytime soon, right?

No, it isn't. But this shit is sooooooooo good. Just pick a side and jump in, or get both like I did. If you pick one format and it loses, by the time it happens you'll be able to buy the other player for dirt cheap.