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[Ignatz Mouse]

Van, whoever trolled you on XBL deserves to have his gamertag poster here and get all the retaliatory messages, IMHO.

plag, standalone sales are not that lopsided (or at least weren't before the sale). A couple of months out of the year, dedicated BluRay players outsold HD-DVD standalones.

 

[Walshicus]

Oh jesus fucking christ.
Yeah tell that to the 34 movies in my collection...

Are you trying to argue that your 34 BD-ROM collection is typical?

"PS3 is the only reason Blu is winning"
"Bu bu bu PS3 owners don't buy movies"
Which the fuck is it.

Both. They're not mutually exclussive, providing you accept the second statement as mild hyperbole. PS3 sales are higher than any other HDM player; PS3 blu-ray attach rates are pathetically low. I believe it's something like 25% [welcome correction here] of the attach rate for a standalone HD-DVD or even Blu-Ray player.

And I can guarantee that no matter how many A2 and A3s are sold this entire month that there will easily be more PS3s sold not even including Blu stand alones.

Well, if we accept past attach rates as stable, HD-DVD only needs to sell >25% of PS3 sales in order to reach parity software sales. How many PS3s do we expect to be sold this month? Because more than 90,000 A2s were sold [that number only covers a number of shops] and we still don't know how many A3s were shifted. Doesn't the PS3 usually manage 130k?

 

[Oni Jazar]

Why?

I thought it was good news as that's the highest I've ever seen an HD movie.

300 on Blu-ray reached #2 (HD DVD reached #3)

Doesn't the PS3 usually manage 130k?

I would expect the PS3 to sell about half a million units in November

 

[mrklaw]

25% attach rate isn't pathetically low for a machine that is also a games console.

I think the numbers being mentioned before were more like 20%

Who cares? It still means the addressable market for bluray is way higher than that for HDDVD. why separate standalone from non-standalone? All that matters is addressable market.

 

[Walshicus]

25% attach rate isn't pathetically low for a machine that is also a games console.

Well it's certainly helped keep Blu-Ray in the game for sure. And yes for a games machine it's quite good... but it seems to me that publishers aren't going to want to rely on its to sell movies, or rather the wide selection of movies they'd want to sell.

I think the numbers being mentioned before were more like 20%

Same ballpark.

Who cares? It still means the addressable market for bluray is way higher than that for HDDVD. why separate standalone from non-standalone? All that matters is addressable market.

Because of the difference in attach rates.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Publishers aren't going to want to rely on a games machine (selling in the millions) but are completely happy relying on a platform that's sold for $100 with 5-10 free movies? :lol

I think that publishers are happy selling to whomever buys their discs, and that Trojan Horses make more sense than scorched-earth sales for getting through the early adopter phase.

We'll see who's right.

Also: "Helped keep BluRay in the game" yes, but also catapulted it to a near 2:1 dominance. Nice spin.

The attach-rate game is always played by people backing the losing platform. I seem to recall how Xbox 1 owners used to trupet it, while the PS2 rolled to dominance on a lower attach rate. Sour grapes.

 

[Walshicus]

We'll see who's right.

Yeah; let's not presume there's some magic combination of words you or I could use to persuade the other to change opinion on this. Providing neither of us is mauled to death by hedgehogs [or worse, permabanned] in the interim, we'll just have to wait to gloat and eat crow when it's all over.

 

[plagiarize]

Van, whoever trolled you on XBL deserves to have his gamertag poster here and get all the retaliatory messages, IMHO.

plag, standalone sales are not that lopsided (or at least weren't before the sale). A couple of months out of the year, dedicated BluRay players outsold HD-DVD standalones.

i wasn't saying standalones were lopsided... those were meant to represent the people that can play blu-ray movies vs those that can play hd-dvds. the 10 was blu-ray to hd-dvds 1.

i was just trying to demonstrate how ps3 owners don't *need* to buy many blu-rays to have a massive effect on this.

 

[mrklaw]

attach rate doesn't matter. Software sales matter. Addressable market matters.

Movie studios who previously relied on simple 'standalone' box sales to work out likely addressable market will have to update their models to include PS3s - they have no choice. PS3 is and will remain a significant factor in bluray software sales.

 

[mollipen]

And you know, someone mentioned that the stuff on AVS is getting personal and they had to close down the forum. As much as I argue here, I can't see it going beyond an internet discussion (essentially meaningless). But I'm watching an HD DVD last night with my wife, and I get a trolling message on Xbox Live in the middle of the movie. That, I think, is taking this a bit too far, and makes me question whether I should back away from these discussions in general. I think people are taking this format war far too personally. I post here, mostly from work. I hear about great deals first, I find out about upcoming releases from both sides, and have discussions about format preferences and which one (if any) is likely to prevail.

I'm asking folks here to NOT take this personally, and PLEASE don't contact me on XBL or anywhere outside of these boards to troll me about HD DVD. I'm not the man in charge of HD DVD, I'm not responsible for either format. If I'm watching a movie with my family, please leave me alone.

I'm no fan of yours - I think you're a total nutcase sometimes, and jump on people for the smallest of things - but really, that's beyond pathetic of whomever did that. At the very least, they need to be perma-banned from here.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

i wasn't saying standalones were lopsided... those were meant to represent the people that can play blu-ray movies vs those that can play hd-dvds. the 10 was blu-ray to hd-dvds 1.

i was just trying to demonstrate how ps3 owners don't *need* to buy many blu-rays to have a massive effect on this.

I think I was still asleep when I read that, sorry.

 

[ConsumerSquare]

I'd like to go buy a few movies, but my frickin' order has to ship first. Hot Fuzz for the wife, 2001 for me, Eternal Sunshine for us both, and Planet Earth to blow away my friends and family.

How does IQ on these players compare to HD cable? It's better, right? A lot of non sports and non Discovery HD programs look sorta bad. For a while I thought it was my TV, but I started noticing a big variation between programs and channels.

 

[plagiarize]

I think I was still asleep when I read that, sorry.

i'd still like to know that real number, because 10:1 is pure estimate on my part.

 

[plagiarize]

I'd like to go buy a few movies, but my frickin' order has to ship first. Hot Fuzz for the wife, 2001 for me, Eternal Sunshine for us both, and Planet Earth to blow away my friends and family.

How does IQ on these players compare to HD cable? It's better, right? A lot of non sports and non Discovery HD programs look sorta bad. For a while I thought it was my TV, but I started noticing a big variation between programs and channels.

definately noticeably better than HD cable yes.

 

[VanMardigan]

I think the Ps3 gets taken to extremes on both sides, when the answer is clearly in the middle. It IS the single biggest factor in current software sales. HOWEVER, because the attach rates are low compared to standalones, Toshiba does not have to sell 1:1 to be able to make up the software discrepancy. In fact, if Toshiba moved 100k units a month (something they'll EASILY be able to do this month), that should be sufficient to counter 500k or whatever Ps3 will sell this month. The problem for Toshiba up to this point is that it HASN'T been able to move units at this pace. Not even close.

Will it be able to move that many units consistently now that the $199 plateau has been crossed? I think so, and the higher standalone attach rates should reflect on the software numbers. Which, since Transformwrs launched, has been a lot closer than 2:1. The Blu Ray blockbusters this week and through the rest of the year will likely push it back in that direction, however.

 

[Christoff Yurievich]

http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2002/11/25

that's what I was thinking of.

I'm asking folks here to NOT take this personally, and PLEASE don't contact me on XBL or anywhere outside of these boards to troll me about HD DVD. I'm not the man in charge of HD DVD, I'm not responsible for either format. If I'm watching a movie with my family, please leave me alone.

you should post the gamertag.

 

[StoOgE]

90K is a nice number.

I would expect a 5-10K a week bump in disc sales from this as well.

 

[VanMardigan]

edit: I don't want to go into it further

 

[mrklaw]

I think the Ps3 gets taken to extremes on both sides, when the answer is clearly in the middle. It IS the single biggest factor in current software sales. HOWEVER, because the attach rates are low compared to standalones, Toshiba does not have to sell 1:1 to be able to make up the software discrepancy. In fact, if Toshiba moved 100k units a month (something they'll EASILY be able to do this month), that should be sufficient to counter 500k or whatever Ps3 will sell this month. The problem for Toshiba up to this point is that it HASN'T been able to move units at this pace. Not even close.

Will it be able to move that many units consistently now that the $199 plateau has been crossed? I think so, and the higher standalone attach rates should reflect on the software numbers. Which, since Transformwrs launched, has been a lot closer than 2:1. The Blu Ray blockbusters this week and through the rest of the year will likely push it back in that direction, however.

good post. I agree 90k means you need something along the lines of 500k PS3 sales to counter it. Doable in a holiday month but still a lot of sales. PS3 has sold a lot already so its starting from a higher point, but sustained high volume HDDVD player sales could eat into that pretty quickly. Thing is, can they be sustained without hugely aggressive pricing?

 

[VanMardigan]

Thing is, can they be sustained without hugely aggressive pricing?

Well, they're already there, so sustaining it shouldn't be an issue. The bigger question is how quickly Blu Ray can match that aggressive pricing to take that advantage (their biggest one) away.

 

[mrklaw]

Its yet to be seen if the huge sales were due to $199 or $99 pricing. If it was $99 then those sales are a blip until we see reports from a wider timescale.

I'm not doubting it, we just don't have enough data to say they are sustaining anything right now.

 

[Solo]

Cheebs, its a no-brainer - go for the Kubricks first. I did exactly whayt you did - got the player w/Transformers for sheer eye candy, and am now getting movies that are actually good.

 

[artist]

http://www.betanews.com/article/How_HD_DVD_Got_its_Groove_Back/1194405684

 

[captive]

:lol the fud is ridiculous. The two P's will win the war? :lol :lol

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

:lol the fud is ridiculous. The two P's will win the war? :lol :lol

I feel stupid hvaing read even the first few replies. I guess that's where all the AVS people went!

 

[Argyle]

Toshiba is doing great financially. I'm sorry, you won't be able to "bleed them out". Also, even if ALL the regulars here got together and purchased a specific HD DVD, it wouldn't change the top ten or the software ratios. Consider then, how insignificant it would be for you to purchase one.

I read on HDD about some guy that bought a Ps3 and was only renting Blu Rays as well. That idiot also thought he was "bleeding out" Sony. Once you realize that you can't change the outcome here, you free yourself of such ignorant thinking and just enjoy the movies. You're not bleeding out anything, and your refusal to buy movies for a device you willingly bought is not only retarded, it's also useless.

I envy the fact that you can own both formats right now, but I certainly don't envy your misguided thinking that you somehow have a personal responsibility to a competing format that prevents you from buying software for a device you just recently bought.

And you know, someone mentioned that the stuff on AVS is getting personal and they had to close down the forum. As much as I argue here, I can't see it going beyond an internet discussion (essentially meaningless). But I'm watching an HD DVD last night with my wife, and I get a trolling message on Xbox Live in the middle of the movie. That, I think, is taking this a bit too far, and makes me question whether I should back away from these discussions in general. I think people are taking this format war far too personally. I post here, mostly from work. I hear about great deals first, I find out about upcoming releases from both sides, and have discussions about format preferences and which one (if any) is likely to prevail.

I'm asking folks here to NOT take this personally, and PLEASE don't contact me on XBL or anywhere outside of these boards to troll me about HD DVD. I'm not the man in charge of HD DVD, I'm not responsible for either format. If I'm watching a movie with my family, please leave me alone.

All I'm saying is that I'm doing my part. I don't want to buy discs for a format that I am honestly hoping will soon be obsolete, but I am willing to take their highly subsidized player and their free discs, and by renting them, I still get to see the movies I want. For me, the $100 outlay is worth that. I don't have any delusion that I will personally end the format war, but I don't want to have a whole pile of red discs in my collection to rebuy.

When those studios get their shit together and release those movies on Blu-ray, then I'll start buying.

Alternately, if HD DVD manages to pull an upset, I have a head start because I have a working (and very cheap) player.

Honestly I think Toshiba and Microsoft suck for starting and perpetuating this format war (yes, it is their fault). I don't blindly hate them as companies the way anti-Sony folks do, but I look at it on a case by case basis...as I've said in many posts before, I'm more of a movie fan than anything, and this way I get to have my cake and eat it too.

I'm sorry to hear that people are taking this too personally, though

 

[VanMardigan]

If you want a nice Blu spin on the killer numbers Toshiba posted last weekend, Ben from EngadgetHD is here to soften the blow:

We were wondering how well HD DVD was doing with those new price cuts, and now here's Video Business with the answer: according to sources at retailers, Wal-Mart, Best Buy and Circuit City -- among others -- were able to move 90,000 stand-alone HD DVD players this weekend. Most of them were last year's entry level HD-A2, which sold for the low, low price of $99 -- but not all. This dramatically increases the user base for the HD DVD camp, but that's not saying much since the format only sold about this many stand-alone players in its first year. In the world of consumer electronics, 90k isn't that impressive, but considering the estimated loss Toshiba took on each unit, we can see why they'd want to limit the supply. The problem for the HD DVD camp is that they're really up against the PS3's sales, and even though only 40% of PS3 owners realize that there is a Blu-ray player built in, that's still about 750,000 people in the US. But ultimately, this format war is about selling movies, and we'll be keeping a close eye on the weekly sales numbers to assess the impact of this early holiday sales blitz.

HOLY BLU SPIN BATMAN!!! :lol :lol :lol

 

[captive]

If you want a nice Blu spin on the killer numbers Toshiba posted last weekend, Ben from EngadgetHD is here to soften the blow:



HOLY BLU SPIN BATMAN!!! :lol :lol :lol

Did i miss a post where someone asked for blu spin?
Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Anyone ask for some spin? No i dont believe anyone asked for any spin.

 

[VanMardigan]

Honestly I think Toshiba and Microsoft suck for starting and perpetuating this format war (yes, it is their fault).

No, I don't think you got that right. And as far as blame, there's plenty to go around, but it's silly to only point to one side. This is about greed, about not being able to share royalties.

 

[Argyle]

No, I don't think you got that right. And as far as blame, there's plenty to go around, but it's silly to only point to one side. This is about greed, about not being able to share royalties.

We've gone over this before - but the two second synopsis is that when this exact situation of two competing formats happened for DVD, Sony and Philips capitulated, but now Toshiba (emboldened by Microsoft's backing) decided to go it alone against the rest of the industry.

 

[Mrbob]

Anything for a sensationalist story it seems.

The news articles stemming around hi def movies makes my head spin. Need to sit down.

I really don't care which format is backed, but Warner better back one format by Feb 2008 and end this silliness.

 

[thaivo]

90K is a nice number.

I would expect a 5-10K a week bump in disc sales from this as well.

Yep very positive news for HD DVD, and it's not even Black Friday yet. I'm almost certain I'll be able to get in on a good deal for the A3 for my dad before Christmas.

It will definitely have some impact on software sales. I mean that is an increase of approximately 20 - 25% of the stand-alone numbers, couple that with all the 360 add ons that sold due to the Heroes promotion, and things are looking pretty good.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Like I said before, we Blu guys don't have somebody posting every bit of posifive Blu press here as the HD-DVDers do (mainly TME)-- but now we have Red people doing it for us, with :lol's added!

More interestingly, we have some numbers that plagierize was askign for above.

~200K HD-DVD players
~1.9M PS3s

Extrapolated from who knows where, but if it's even ballpark, it's interesting.

We also know that the low-end BluRay player sold about 100K so far. Also interesting. That's how many people want a BluRay player and *don't* want it to be a PS3.

 

[Wulfer]

Honestly I think Toshiba and Microsoft suck for starting and perpetuating this format war (yes, it is their fault). I don't blindly hate them as companies the way anti-Sony folks do, but I look at it on a case by case basis...as I've said in many posts before, I'm more of a movie fan than anything, and this way I get to have my cake and eat it too.

No bud, Sony sucks for breaking away in the first place, if you want to play that game! (You do remember Toshiba created DVD not Sony right?)

 

[VanMardigan]

We've gone over this before - but the two second synopsis is that when this exact situation of two competing formats happened for DVD, Sony and Philips capitulated, but now Toshiba (emboldened by Microsoft's backing) decided to go it alone against the rest of the industry.

So it was Toshiba's turn to capitulate? :lol

That's a very simplistic explanation there, and both sides sat down countless times to agree, but they didn't. Pointing the finger at one side is silly and biased. The intricacies are many, but the bottom line is greed came out on top. DvD wasn't decided so smoothly either, you're looking at the CE side.

~200K HD-DVD players

That's not accurate. The first year of HD DVD standalone sales ended in when.......April? May?

Also, the 100k for the Sony is shipped. And considering 90k in ONE weekend, I really don't see how you got 200k total.

Also, another nugget of info from those articles: 20% of Ps3 owners were active Blu Ray buyers. I think Mrklaw posted that figure earlier, and the article confirmed it.

For sure, the hardware disparity should be producing a bigger software disparity, and I explained in a post above why that wasn't the case.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Who. The. Fuck. Cares. Who. Started. It.

 

[captive]

No bud, Sony sucks for breaking away in the first place, if you want to play that game! (You do remember Toshiba created DVD not Sony right?)

No back in the day IBM settled the dispute over DVD so we could have 1 format. Guess what happened today? They went to microsoft to settle it, oh but wait microsoft has a vested interest in one of the formats, hmmm makes you think doesnt it?

 

[Argyle]

So it was Toshiba's turn to capitulate? :lol

That's a very simplistic explanation there, and both sides sat down countless times to agree, but they didn't. Pointing the finger at one side is silly and biased. The intricacies are many, but the bottom line is greed came out on top. DvD wasn't decided so smoothly either, you're looking at the CE side.

It was, since they were as isolated as Sony and Philips were the first time around (based on the number of companies they had supporting their format). In that case IBM stepped in and negotiated the truce to unify the formats.

You are correct about greed though - Toshiba must have felt that it was worth it to try and perpetuate a format war vs. accepting dramatically reduced royalties (relative to DVD) if they compromised and got some of their patents into Blu-ray.

And of course, in the end, all of us got screwed. At least now I'm not chained to either format, but I have my right to have a preference one way or another

 

[acabado]

According to http://www.thenewstribune.com/busine...ry/193802.html I think the Sony's stand alone BD player will be at 349U$ price point. With more hdtv's selling by the end of the year, PS3 now have some good games and costs 399U$, it'll be a good BD christimas.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

To Argyle and any other close-minded whiners:

If Toshiba hadn't created HD-DVD, Blu-ray would still be costing you $700+ for a standalone player and the PS3 might not have launched with it added in. Sony wouldn't have felt the need to trojan horse the PS3 like they did, they'd have no pressure to drop prices so quickly on players, and the adoption rate would be much slower.

Format wars suck, but they do make the products more affordable much faster. Can it with the fanboy banter.

 

[clav]

lol. Avsforum HD format forums temporary close.

Suicide watch indeed.

 

[Argyle]

To Argyle and any other close-minded whiners:

If Toshiba hadn't created HD-DVD, Blu-ray would still be costing you $700+ for a standalone player and the PS3 might not have launched with it added in. Sony wouldn't have felt the need to trojan horse the PS3 like they did, they'd have no pressure to drop prices so quickly on players, and the adoption rate would be much slower.

Format wars suck, but they do make the products more affordable much faster. Can it with the fanboy banter.

You might be right about the standalone player, but I think you are completely wrong about whether or not they would have put it into the PS3.

On the other hand, the Blu-ray players would eventually come down in price due to competition between manufacturers, and consumers could buy with confidence knowing that this was the next generation disc format.

Just like DVD. (And there were some great deals on DVD players back in the day, I still have a shrinkwrapped copy of "Stepmom" that some company sent me as a freebie...)

 

[mollipen]

...and the PS3 might not have launched with it added in. Sony wouldn't have felt the need to trojan horse the PS3 like they did, they'd have no pressure to drop prices so quickly on players, and the adoption rate would be much slower.

Come on... yes, it would have. The PS3 would have been Blu-ray had HD-DVD existed or not. Blu-ray isn't the only component of the PS3 that screams "Sony wanted to make a high-end media device," and even with HD-DVD not around, Blu-ray adoption wouldn't have been a given. Sony wants Blu-ray to be the next DVD, not LD, so they would have pushed it hard even without competition.

 

[captive]

To Argyle and any other close-minded whiners:

If Toshiba hadn't created HD-DVD, Blu-ray would still be costing you $700+ for a standalone player and the PS3 might not have launched with it added in. Sony wouldn't have felt the need to trojan horse the PS3 like they did, they'd have no pressure to drop prices so quickly on players, and the adoption rate would be much slower.

Format wars suck, but they do make the products more affordable much faster. Can it with the fanboy banter.

And so what? DVD prices were insane too. But atleast when you bought a DVD player you werent worried about some other format possibly causing both formats to die or being a lame split market or winning outright.
The earliest i got my first DVD player was like 2000 or 2001 and it was still over 100 dollars. And it was a Toshiba no less.
I dont remember the exact year the first sub 200 dollar players came out but i can guarantee you it wasnt in 1998, 1 year after they came out in the US.

 

[Jeff-DSA]

Come on... yes, it would have. The PS3 would have been Blu-ray had HD-DVD existed or not. Blu-ray isn't the only component of the PS3 that screams "Sony wanted to make a high-end media device," and even with HD-DVD not around, Blu-ray adoption wouldn't have been a given. Sony wants Blu-ray to be the next DVD, not LD, so they would have pushed it hard even without competition.

The thing I have to wonder, however, is if the PS3 would have launched when it did then. Sony couldn't really undercut their BD buddies like Samsung with a $400 (now) console with standalone players costing so much more, could they? Wouldn't that royally piss off manufacturers? I think it would have made things very difficult for the PS3 in regards to price drops. Maybe it would have launched at the same time, but pricing wouldn't have tumbled as quickly as it has.

 

[captive]

The thing I have to wonder, however, is if the PS3 would have launched when it did then. Sony couldn't really undercut their BD buddies like Samsung with a $400 (now) console with standalone players costing so much more, could they? Wouldn't that royally piss off manufacturers? I think it would have made things very difficult for the PS3 in regards to price drops. Maybe it would have launched at the same time, but pricing wouldn't have tumbled as quickly as it has.

And if microsoft hadnt rushed next gen we could have gotten two systems at lower prices and better games all at once. If ifs and buts were candies and nuts we'd all have a merry christmas. Stop with the hypothetical bullshit already.

 

[Kintaro]

To Argyle and any other close-minded whiners:

If Toshiba hadn't created HD-DVD, Blu-ray would still be costing you $700+ for a standalone player and the PS3 might not have launched with it added in. Sony wouldn't have felt the need to trojan horse the PS3 like they did, they'd have no pressure to drop prices so quickly on players, and the adoption rate would be much slower.

I personally would have preferred this. PS3 would be cheaper, there's one HD format and it would get to slide its way into the market more naturally. Thanks for a vision of what would have been preferred for me.

Now we're stuck with two formats head-butting each other for god knows how long.

 

[Christoff Yurievich]

Did i miss a post where someone asked for blu spin?
Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Anyone ask for some spin? No i dont believe anyone asked for any spin.

I don't know why you bother since he can't read what you write and actively ignores when someone quotes you. *shrugs*

 

[Raistlin]

No bud, Sony sucks for breaking away in the first place, if you want to play that game! (You do remember Toshiba created DVD not Sony right?)

Sony/Philips do share in the DVD patents.

They created optical media (CD), and then later began working on a video format. At the same time Toshiba was also working on a video format with several partners. Instead of having a format war, Sony/Philips decided to join with Toshiba (though with a modification to SuperDensity disc) since they were outnumbered.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvd


As for the current format war, regardless of the DVD Forum's 'approval', many would argue that Toshiba did the breaking away since they've always had less support. And now that they have scared away CE's due to pricing, it’s even truer.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Jeff: Are you just casting about for things to smear Sony with? :lol


1998, Summer, DVD = $400. I bought one. By Xmas, $300 deals could be found.
DVD debuted in 1997. BluRay seems to be on the same track, hard to say how much HD-DVD is affecting the price, since they havn't lowered as dramatically. They seem to be followiong the same curve DVD did (which also debuted over a grand), regardless.