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[shantyman]

Thanks for the BOGO deal a few pages back Ookie, just picked up Syriana and 300 for 24 bucks. I'm splitting the bill with one of my buddies so he can have Syriana.

You picked the wrong movie.

 

[Forsete]

Nice editorial by Jeff Kleist.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/jeffkleist/editorial010108.html

A decision like that, for a large retailer, is more complicated than just what the split of media sales is. There are other questions to be asked. For example: How well does the format support the rest of their product lines? Which format helps them move more TVs, cables, and furniture? Which generates more profit on average? Any retailer worth his salt right now would rather move 1 Blu-ray player a week with a $150 profit margin (35% is standard markup at retail), than 5 HD-DVD players that they make a reported $30-50 margin on (a number that's reportedly been maintained even with the recent fire sales). Why? Because it costs less to store and ship 1 player as opposed to 5, given those profit margins, and it also requires far less of an investment in terms of your purchasing budget. The large margin also allows for active discounting to bundle the player with TVs and other accessories, and to drive sales across the board. In addition, the large number of manufacturers and products associated with Blu-ray (from the PS3, to laptops and desktops with drives, to set top players and TVs) results in exponentially more ad buys in the circular, and more end cap displays in the stores. Right now many Best Buy stores have 6 standalone displays featuring Blu-ray Disc, and just 2 for HD-DVD (counting LG's combo player as 1 each).

Right now, in the wake of the Christmas shopping season, all of the signs (from industry insider rumblings to how high-definition hardware and software are being pushed in stores) tell me that the major retailers will call the ball on this format war very soon, and those signs are all pointing in Blu-ray Disc's favor. Consider that despite the $169 HD-DVD player at Sears on Black Friday, Blu-ray Disc players that were over twice as expensive outsold it 2 to 1. How long did it take for the Hollywood studios to completely dump VHS (in favor of DVD) after Best Buy and Wal-Mart did? About a year, and they dumped VCRs without built-in DVD drives about a year after that.

For high-definition media to thrive, anyone with experience in the retail industry knows that one of these formats must live and one must die, and that's going to happen sooner rather than later, no matter what Toshiba or Sony or Microsoft or the Blu-ray Disc Association or the HD-DVD Promotions Group want. If one of these formats isn't ultimately chosen by the studios and manufacturers, then sooner or later the big box stores will decide that neither of them is worth the effort, and that won't be good for anyone - not the studios, not the retailers and especially not the consumer.

 

[purnoman3000]

All these features which are touted in this supposed XBOX ultimate are all already avilable on the PS3 minus IPTV so it better come at a reasonable pricepoint just above that of the PS3's, if this thing is actually real.

 

[StoOgE]

yes, more great, agendaless reporting from the digital bits.

I heard Bill Hunts mommy tried to by transformers on the blu ray, but it didnt work.

 

[Forsete]

All these features which are touted in this supposed XBOX ultimate are all already avilable on the PS3 minus IPTV so it better come at a reasonable pricepoint just above that of the PS3's, if this thing is actually real.

PS3 will get Freeview or whatever its called in the UK, DVB-T hardware this year.

 

[purnoman3000]

I wasn't gonna mention it given that it was region limited, but now that I think about it, IPTV will most likely be America only at least in the beginning.

 

[borghe]

yes, more great, agendaless reporting from the digital bits.

I heard Bill Hunts mommy tried to by transformers on the blu ray, but it didnt work.

to be fair, bill hunt has never once claimed to be unbiased. and as a news reporting site, he still reports news unbiased. finally, by definition an editorial is biased. I mean if you want to call him biased for giving an HD-DVD version of a movie a lower grade, or not reporting HD-DVD sales when they're up or a new release or something, go ahead. But calling him biased on an editorial piece... well, no duh..

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Nice editorial by Jeff Kleist.

Does he also write for Fox? You know, fair and balanced.

 

[Forsete]

Does he also write for Fox? You know, fair and balanced.

No idea.
So you mean its not true, what he said? You work at retail? Interesting.

 

[StoOgE]

to be fair, bill hunt has never once claimed to be unbiased. and as a news reporting site, he still reports news unbiased. finally, by definition an editorial is biased. I mean if you want to call him biased for giving an HD-DVD version of a movie a lower grade, or not reporting HD-DVD sales when they're up or a new release or something, go ahead. But calling him biased on an editorial piece... well, no duh..

When you use stupid (fabricated) anectodal stories about your in laws being confused about the format war to the head of Universal home video (stories by the way that apply to both BRD and HDDVD) to show how they are "hurting the little man" you are doing more than having an agenda. You are spreading FUD. That makes him worse than a supporter, that makes him a shill.

 

[Forsete]

To back up what he said in the editorial I saw now that Penton-Man already said there was going to be shift at retail.

So.. you know.

 

[StoOgE]

To back up what he said in the editorial I saw now that Penton-Man already said there was going to be shift at retail.

So.. you know.

How does that explain every store I go to (BB, Frys, CC, Comp USA) expanding both their BRD and HDDVD selections and size of the rack? Retail sure is doing a bad job picking a side.

 

[kaching]

When you use stupid (fabricated) anectodal stories

Out of curiosity here, are you saying there's evidence that his stories were fabricated or are you trying to claim that "stupid" is synonymous with "fabricated"?

 

[gkryhewy]

To back up what he said in the editorial I saw now that Penton-Man already said there was going to be shift at retail.

So.. you know.

LOL. You're the new Snah, I take it? "Penton-Man" should be a banned meme.

 

[ThirstyFly]

Son of a son of a bitch. I got the messed up version of Blade Runner with the work print disc actually being another final cut with the wrong label. Grrrrr.

 

[Forsete]

How does that explain every store I go to (BB, Frys, CC, Comp USA) expanding both their BRD and HDDVD selections and size of the rack? Retail sure is doing a bad job picking a side.

Keep your eyes open now that Christmas is over.. like he writes

So now that the Christmas shopping season is over, they'll have to start making a choice: Which format is going to start losing shelf space?

LOL. You're the new Snah, I take it?

Lawl! Obviously!

 

[Witchfinder General]

how is firghtners PQ? a big upgrade over the DVD?

I never owned the DVD but it looks pretty good with a decent amount of detail and fairly robust black levels.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Jeff Kleist writes for the Digital Bits? I remember when he got banned at HTF for starting flame wars about the new Battlestar Galactica not being true to the original 70s version. Boycotts, the whole nine yards. :lol The guy is one of the biggest mentally ill fanboys I've ever seen.

(this doesn't automatically discredit any of his points in the article, I'm just surprised that he has a job)

 

[StoOgE]

Out of curiosity here, are you saying there's evidence that his stories were fabricated or are you trying to claim that "stupid" is synonymous with "fabricated"?

Do you really think that happened? Do you really think Bill Hunts whatever-in law bought an HDDVD player, and a BRD of some Disney movie, and then returned it all when it didnt work together? Or do you think he just made that up so he could strike a "winning blow" for the little man.

That reaks of fanboyish "When I was at Gamestop, no one was buying the Xboxen. Huge piles of them, Halo Box, LOLZ"

 

[borghe]

How does that explain every store I go to (BB, Frys, CC, Comp USA) expanding both their BRD and HDDVD selections and size of the rack? Retail sure is doing a bad job picking a side.

By expanding, Ill assume you mean "for the holiday season". In that respect, of course they did. More movies than ever were out, players and HD were hot, and movies sold.

I mean even me, Mr. Two-Formats-Really-Don't-Matter-Because-Dual-Format-Players-Can-End-This-War, will concede that if affordable dual format players don't make a major push next week, one side will have to die and retail will likely be the one to push for it. Needing to have two players to watch all movies is stupid. I was simply hoping that the CE manufacturers would end it with dual format players. If they don't then someone else will, and if the studios won't the only ones left are the retailers.

 

[kaching]

Do you really think that happened?

Thanks, that answers my question.

 

[Kleegamefan]

To back up what he said in the editorial I saw now that Penton-Man already said there was going to be shift at retail.

So.. you know.

Where does Penton Man post at again?

 

[VanMardigan]

Unless it's a news story, posting a digital bits editorial is the equivalent of posting a Rob Enderle editorial.

And why retailers would want to pick a side, when BOTH formats are growing is beyond me. They're not fanboys who whine about a one format future

Spoiler

so long as its blu

, they just care about selling movies, and both formats sold movies this holiday season. Until HD DVD software sales either stall or decline, it would be stupid to pull it off the shelves. From personal experience (in retail), I would order whatever the customers were buying. You can't be a fanboy in retail. The one retailer that chose to stock Blu Ray players only (Target, was it?) got moneyhatted. No other reason exists (just like in the Warner situation) to pick a side at this point, when both are growing.

 

[BotoxAgent]

yeah, both are growing...but very slowly. I still think it would grow even faster if one of them gets the ax. I'm sure there are a lot of consumers holding off on their purchases because they are playing the waiting game. One format = less confusion, which in turn benefits retailers.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The Digital Bits may have a clear and stated preference, but they are far from Enderle level.

Most of their editorials (that I've read, the few posted here) are well-written and thoughtful, unlike the Enderle spin. They do tend to tick off the "both sides are equal" people a lot, though.

From what I've seen at CC, Target and BB, BLu-ray does have significantly more shelf space. I haven't seen any place that has that much of a difference in the other direction-- only store that have about equal shelf space.

As far as his thoughts that Retail will force a conclusion-- I have no idea. I think that's the only part of the article that's questionable and could be deemed propaganda.

 

[borghe]

And why retailers would want to pick a side, when BOTH formats are growing is beyond me.

retailers don't care about picking a side or even the format war. They want to do what's best for their bottom line. The thing to understand is that the profit margin in new releases is ridiculously thin. Sure best buy is typically $5 more than amazon, but they have to pay for retail space, and millions of square feet of it at that, thousands of retail workers, security, etc. The only real profit makers in video software are discount catalog releases of which HDM doesn't have that area yet (and likely won't for at least 2-4 more years). The only point of new release software is to sell the hardware. THAT'S where the profit margins are.

So to answer your question, they wouldn't pick a side... they would just utilize the retail space in the manner that would give them the highest profit, aka stock it with the movies that would sell them the most profitable players. In this case that happens to mean the format which also has the most releases and the current highest software sales.

There really isn't a "war" as far as retailers are concerned. There are just competing retail items and they will simply give prominence and attention to the one that makes them the most money. If one of them ends up bringing in less money than they could see if they were to give most or all of it's space to it's competitor.... well, why would you carry it? You wouldn't carry a video card in store if the only face space you have to stock the video card could instead be used to face stock a better selling video card would you?
You guys know I'm not in favor of one format over the other... but if the hardware margins reported by the bits are true, that could be a huge problem for HD-DVD on the retail front especially given how well BRD is already selling. Even if HD-DVD software is selling, if the overall profit of the sector is lower than what they could make by expanding HD-DVD... it's just basic business practices.

 

[Oni Jazar]

I keep telling everyone that a dual format future will be bad for just about every player in the game: Retailers, CE Companies, Studios, and Consumers.

 

[VanMardigan]

Well, they already give Blu Ray more shelf space, which is logical given what you're saying. The "article" (I put the parenthesis to indicate that I believe it's more of a shill piece), however, states that a retailer would "pick a side". Pulling HD DVD movies from the shelves, when they just had a fantastic month of sales, is absurd. And again, I go back to my personal experience, where I order what the customers want, and its clear customers still want HD DVD, even if more Blu Ray movies are being sold.

 

[badcrumble]

Looks like Apple is going to start shipping some computers with Blu-Ray drives:

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...to_ship_macs_with_blu_ray_support_report.html

Apple tend to be ahead of the curve in this regard, so look for this as a potential bellwether among computer manufacturers.

 

[borghe]

where I order what the customers want, and its clear customers still want HD DVD, even if more Blu Ray movies are being sold.

yes customers want HD-DVDs, but is best buy going to lose more money buy getting rid of them than they'll make by utilizing the space differently?

I'm not saying they will or won't axe them. but incredibly low hardware margins combined with lower sales against a competing format isn't good. fortunately as both formats are growing in sales, there is some fat in the DVD section that can still be trimmed to grow them. but if it gets to the point that slimming back the DVD selection would hurt profitability more than slimming down one of the other selections.. you know which way the retailer is going to go.

 

[polyh3dron]

yes, more great, agendaless reporting from the digital bits.

I heard Bill Hunts mommy tried to by transformers on the blu ray, but it didnt work.

Does he also write for Fox? You know, fair and balanced.

When you use stupid (fabricated) anectodal stories about your in laws being confused about the format war to the head of Universal home video (stories by the way that apply to both BRD and HDDVD) to show how they are "hurting the little man" you are doing more than having an agenda. You are spreading FUD. That makes him worse than a supporter, that makes him a shill.

Do you really think that happened? Do you really think Bill Hunts whatever-in law bought an HDDVD player, and a BRD of some Disney movie, and then returned it all when it didnt work together? Or do you think he just made that up so he could strike a "winning blow" for the little man.

That reaks of fanboyish "When I was at Gamestop, no one was buying the Xboxen. Huge piles of them, Halo Box, LOLZ"

Unless it's a news story, posting a digital bits editorial is the equivalent of posting a Rob Enderle editorial.

Well, they already give Blu Ray more shelf space, which is logical given what you're saying. The "article" (I put the parenthesis to indicate that I believe it's more of a shill piece), however, states that a retailer would "pick a side". Pulling HD DVD movies from the shelves, when they just had a fantastic month of sales, is absurd. And again, I go back to my personal experience, where I order what the customers want, and its clear customers still want HD DVD, even if more Blu Ray movies are being sold.

Is it really that crazy to say that having only one Hi Def format is the only way for HDM to survive long term? Is it really so outlandish for an in-law of somebody who writes about this stuff to attempt to buy some HD movies and be confused over the formats? Not everyone out there is as informed as us.

The difference between a Rob Enderle editorial and a Bits editorial is that Enderle is a documented Microsoft consultant who actually is paid by Microsoft. The Digital Bits is not paid by the BDA no matter what the fanatics will say. They have been a respected home video site ever since the dawn of DVD.

This "lol digital blu bits sony shill lol" crap is getting really old.

 

[Forsete]

Where does Penton Man post at again?

Blu-ray.com, in the stickied Ask the insider thread.

 

[jjasper]

The day a chain stops selling HD DVD or Blu Ray is the day one of the companies gives them enough money to cover any profits they would have made selling the other.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Is it really that crazy to say that having only one Hi Def format is the only way for HDM to survive long term? Is it really so outlandish for an in-law of somebody who writes about this stuff to attempt to buy some HD movies and be confused over the formats? Not everyone out there is as informed as us.

The difference between a Rob Enderle editorial and a Bits editorial is that Enderle is a documented Microsoft consultant who actually is paid by Microsoft. The Digital Bits is not paid by the BDA no matter what the fanatics will say. They have been a respected home video site ever since the dawn of DVD.

This "lol digital blu bits sony shill lol" crap is getting really old.

If it was a shill site, they wouldn't have spent the few days following the Paramount announcement predicting doom for Blu-ray.

 

[polyh3dron]

If it was a shill site, they wouldn't have spent the few days following the Paramount announcement predicting doom for Blu-ray.

It was more "doom for HDM" than anything, because it created the possibility for what we see coming now unless Warner picks a side, a stalemate. It's simply common sense.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Looking at that editorial again, here are my issues with it:

1) Use of "fire sale" to talk about discounted HD-DVD players
2) Assuredness that retail will "call" this
3) and the notion that that will happen "soon."
4) He alludes to insider rumblings, but does not back it up, instead talks about how each format is supported at retail

His discussion of what goes into a retail decision is interesting, his analysis (based on his own observations) is not, particularly.

Strikes me as the sort of piece one writes during a news lull, like before a big show. I'm not going to give it much credit, as I tuink retail has more patience at this point than the studios (my own total guess, as good as this guy's).

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

It was more "doom for HDM" than anything, because it created the possibility for what we see coming now unless Warner picks a side, a stalemate. It's simply common sense.

Yes, it was "doom for HDM," but that's not the message the BD group wanted to send in the wake of the Paramount deal, is it? Doom for HDM means doom for BD, and they'd never spend a couple of days pushing that message. It undermines their product.

 

[DarkJediKnight]

That article is just a bunch of blah blah. I did not know that Blu-ray standalones outsold the HD DVD onces 2-1 during black friday. That seems over-reaching. Maybe he's including PS3. I don't know.

 

[Chiggs]

1) Use of "fire sale" to talk about discounted HD-DVD players
2) Assuredness that retail will "call" this
3) and the notion that that will happen "soon."
4) He alludes to insider rumblings, but does not back it up, instead talks about how each format is supported at retail

Every post in this thread should contain at least two of those points.

 

[ZeroTolerance]

In a report issued to clients early Thursday morning, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu cited sources who say the Cupertino-based Mac maker, which already occupies a seat on the Blu-ray consortium, is set to begin shipping some of its computers with support for the next-generation DVD format.

"We believe this is a key announcement as current Macs ship with the DVD format and Sony gains a strong ally in Blu-ray," the analyst told clients. He added that Disney, for which Apple chief executive Steve Jobs is a Director, is a firm supporter of Blu-ray, while rival Microsoft Corp. has placed most of its eggs in the HD-DVD basket.

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...to_ship_macs_with_blu_ray_support_report.html

MEGATON ?

 

[theBishop]

http://www.appleinsider.com/article...to_ship_macs_with_blu_ray_support_report.html

MEGATON ?

More like INEVITON

 

[cjdunn]

It makes sense. Steve can go on stage next week and show that the Pacman's been blue for a year.

(Props to badcrumble for posting it first).

 

[Captain N]

If Warner does one way or the other does anyone else think the first BIG exclusive release will be I Am Legend?

 

[VanMardigan]

The day a chain stops selling HD DVD or Blu Ray is the day one of the companies gives them enough money to cover any profits they would have made selling the other.

This.

Think of how many products best buy and every other large retailer sells. Think of what happens if they decide to only stock products that have a 60% or higher market share in their respective fields. That's absurd. So long as customers continue to visit these retailers and buying HD discs (which they've been doing in growing numbers), then it's just dumb to think they'd stop carrying one format and completely dump the other. Even Blockbuster, which was moneyhatted, chose to stock Transformers HD DVD. If any of you owned a store, I'd hope you wouldn't make a decision like that (stop selling a format that's growing) out of some chivalrous speculation about what's "best" for the industry.

 

[BoboBrazil]

The question would be is if Best Buy got rid of hd-dvd and increased their blu-ray section, would the extra blu-ray movies sell just as well as the hd-dvds that is currently occupying that space?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I think it's more likely that retailers expand one section and not the other, rather than a total drop.

 

[VanMardigan]

The question would be is if Best Buy got rid of hd-dvd and increased their blu-ray section, would the extra blu-ray movies sell just as well as the hd-dvds that is currently occupying that space?

I don't see how that is possible, given that these are two different set of consumers (for the most part) and different set of movies (for the most part). Given a 35-40% market share for HD DVD, throwing extra shelf space at Blu Ray won't magically increase sales 35-40%.

I think it's more likely that retailers expand one section and not the other, rather than a total drop.

Which is what retailers are doing. Which is what makes the most sense.

 

[Snah]

Nice editorial by Jeff Kleist.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/jeffkleist/editorial010108.html

Those are some very good points, and to put it into perspective I've been to a few Best Buy stores over the past month or so and nearly all of them seem to have Blu-Ray taking up three times the shelf space as HD-DVD.

More than that, Blu-Ray is also set up around the store's HDTV's far more than HD-DVD. There were a handful of Blu-Ray players setup and playing on HDTVs, but only one HD-DVD player.

And consumers are confused about this situation. One lady I saw in a store was picking up tons of 'HD movies for her Blu-Ray player' and her cart was full of red titles, and she kindly asked me whether or not they'd play on her new Blu-Ray player. Stuff like that is frequent.

In 2008, barring some monumental pay off ala Paramount, I think retailers and consumers will decide the war. Retailers will have to make a decision on which format is more profitable to their bottom line, and if HD-DVD is taking away from their potential in this regard, they will drop out. The retailer push for Blu-Ray at Best Buy and Frys is absolutely huge.

 

[borghe]

I think it's more likely that retailers expand one section and not the other, rather than a total drop.

Which is what retailers are doing. Which is what makes the most sense.

right, but with finite floor space, eventually expansion of one means reduction of something else. it then starts of a chain reaction. If Best Buy has a paltry HD-DVD offering, people will stop buying HD-DVDs from them. If they stop buying HD-DVDs from them, then that 40% sales ratio drops further. If it drops further it is no longer a question about stocking something with a 40% market share but now stocking something with a 30% or 20% market share.

I'm not saying Best Buy is going to stop, or that they're going to stop by the end of this year. All I said was that if hardware margins are as disparaging as the article claims (50% on higher priced equipment vs. 35% on lower priced equipment), that is a really big blow for HD-DVD, one that outweighs popularity and number of titles.

Here's an example.. ipods. No one questions that they are popular.best buy probably sells a shit load of them. but isn't it funny that for as many models as there are and as much floor space as you'd think they'd take up, that they usually get just a tiny (yet prominent) section. Isn't if funny that their tiny little (yet prominent) section is surround by dozenss of square feet of OTHER MP3 players and HUNDREDS of square feet of accessories that all have a much lower sell through rate than the ipod?

It's not about popularity or even sell through rate at these stores. It's about profitability and margins. Profitable sectors get tons of floor space. Unprofitable sectors get tiny floor space. If HD-DVD wants to turn things around, they have to get those margins up, either on the software (which is difficult) or the hardware (which usually is easier).

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Borghe, I agree with you. Which is why I thought it specious that the editoril said this would ahppen "soon" as it does not seem to be near that point now.


I wish it were, as it would settle a lot of this quickly, but I can't see it happening in the next few months.